The Dylan Bundys of the World

[Greggory Masterson]

We all know the list. You probably just said it in your own head. Did you stop before or after Rich Hill? Do all the names on that list belong on that list? Do they each deserve the same amount of scorn?

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s be blunt. The Twins spent a few years giving contracts to bad starting pitchers. Since 2020, the Twins have signed six starting pitchers to MLB deals in free agency. Five were out of baseball the following year, and the other is 43-year-old Rich Hill, looking for his 14th MLB team this offseason.

These signings get lumped together regularly. You’ll probably hear the list rattled off by a cynical friend when the topic of the Twins going after starting pitching comes up. You might have it memorized yourself for just such an occasion. However, looking at it retrospectively, the only thing the names on the list share is that they didn’t work out.

Derek Falvey has preferred to trade for front-end starters and sign backend starters, so it makes sense that few free agent gambits have paid off. I ask you, though, is there a process that links the signings together?

Once in a while, Twins Daily lets me grind an axe, and it’s Christmas, so here I am. A company man, through, and through, I’m going to explain why each of those bargain bin pitchers was acquired via a different process, and it doesn’t do justice to lump them in as one coherent philosophical shortcoming.

First though, as an overarching idea—I want to stress that none of the names here were acquired to pitch Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, so they need to be analyzed as what they are—backend starter options. None were signed to deals north of $8 million, so expectations should have been low at the onset.

Dylan Bundy, 2022
Let’s start with the face of the list. Despite having a Number 4 overall draft pick pedigree, Bundy never lived up to his hype, but he was a fine pitcher in Baltimore. By fine, I mean that a team wouldn’t lose sleep over him living in the back of the rotation. He had a terrific 2020 abbreviated season with the Angels, placing ninth in the American League Cy Young voting, but then he bottomed out in 2021 while also dealing with injury.

Leading into the 2022 lockout, the Twins had a rotation that featured Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and—well—not much. Griffin Jax was penciled into a spot. The day before the lockout began, the Twins signed Bundy to a $5 million deal with an option for $10 million in 2023.

It’s a bit unreasonable to get too upset at the team facing an uncertainty like a lockout just trying to find someone to pencil in and start to fill in a nonexistent rotation. Bundy carried with him the potential to be something more, as well. It didn’t come to fruition, though.

Chris Archer, 2022
Archer signed a similar deal to Bundy, though only earning $2.75 in the first year before the option. Archer’s story was similar to Bundy's, though more extreme. Four years and several surgeries removed from his two All-Star nominations, Archer was recovering from yet another surgery going into the 2022 season. There were more questions about Archer than Bundy, but the ceiling would undoubtedly be higher if the Twins could assist him through a healthy recovery.

The rotation had one more empty spot after the additions of Bundy and Sonny Gray (via trade). Other options to fill the final spot included Johnny Cueto. In the past, the club had been criticized for setting the ceiling too low in their signings, and Archer had as high a ceiling as nearly anyone that offseason—he could reasonably have been a low playoff starter, given a return to form—but his risk was nearly as high. In the end, he was moderately effective but rarely had the juice to finish the fifth inning.

JA Happ, 2021
Happ was the polar inverse of Archer, and his struggles may have been some of the impetus for the Twins to opt for Archer over an innings eater like Cueto. Happ was 38 and at the end of a career that had seen him throw for a 3.98 ERA over 14 years. The one-time All-Star was a World Series winner in 2008 and the platonic ideal of a competent backend starter.

The Twins already had Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda penciled in as arms they were happy to roll with in 2021, and adding Happ was supposed to provide reliable, veteran stability at the back end, so he was paid a moderate $8 million to do so.

However, Father Time catches up to all of us, and Happ reached the end of his rope. Those types of things happen. But he wasn’t a reclamation project like Bundy or Archer, and no one was dreaming big on him. They just wanted some competent innings, and Happ failed to deliver.

Matt Shoemaker, 2021 (or The Shoe, if you please)
Shoemaker is the most puzzling signing on this list if you ignore all of the context. Randy Dobnak, coming off two promising partial seasons, was slated to fill the fifth spot, but to add a bit of depth, the team brought in Shoemaker to bump Dobnak down a peg.

Who was Shoemaker? A pitcher who had a few decent years in his late 20s but was 34 and working on coming back from several injuries. Call him the proto-Archer, if you will. The Twins didn’t break the bank on him, paying him just $2 million. The idea was simple: if it works, keep him, and if it doesn’t, cut him free.

It didn’t work. However, to make matters worse, the cavalry didn’t come. Although they did part with him, the Twins finished the year getting starts from Griffin Jax, Charlie Barnes, John Gant, and several other unfortunate names. Had Dobnak been healthy and taken his spot when it was clear he didn’t have it anymore, it would have been a failed experiment. No matter what, though, it’s not as if the Twins staked their season or drained their pockets on the Matt Shoemaker Experiment. He was essentially a minor league veteran who skipped a step and broke camp with the team.

Homer Bailey, 2020
If Shoemaker was the proto-Archer, Bailey was the proto-Happ. However, the signs were much more evident that his time was running out. From 2009 to 2014, his ERA started with a 3, and he was a competent innings eater, when healthy. However, it was 2020, and he had a 5.56 ERA since 2015, throwing fewer than 400 innings in five years.

The Twins were in a strange place, having swung and missed on frontline starters in free agency like Zack Wheeler, and although they would go on to trade for Kenta Maeda, they needed some depth to pair with Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. However, another factor was at play—both Pineda (serving a PED suspension) and Hill (recovering from Tommy John surgery) were slated to miss the first months of the season.

The Twins needed someone to throw innings in April, May, and June, keeping the seat warm for Pineda and Hill, so the Bailey signing, or something like it, was necessary, if only to reach the summer. It’s hard to knock them for not getting another frontline pitcher, but choosing Bailey specifically is a bit of a headscratcher. He would also only throw eight innings for the Twins, adding to his thief in the night legend.

Conclusion
So why have I been prattling on about a bunch of pitchers who didn’t work out in Minnesota? Maybe it’s because I’m a pedant. Something about me gets annoyed when I hear all of these pitchers lumped in together as if there was a connecting tissue among their signings. There were factors like suspensions, depth, and a lockout that played into each signing, and each pitcher was valued for different reasons, to different degrees.

Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ are in no way the same concept, nor were they expected to serve the same role. I just get annoyed when these mistakes are all made out to be one idea. Was this a waste of time to write and read? Sound off in the comments.

Also, before you ask, let’s speed run the rest (who may or may not be on your list, depending on how crotchety you are). Rich Hill: did exactly what was asked of him; stop complaining about a journeyman fifth starter. Martin Perez: almost had it, but also did what was expected of him. Lance Lynn (he hated it here, and he was grumpy, and it makes Minnesotans sad): weird situation; he was good for 11 years as long as he wasn’t in Minnesota. Michael Pineda: good signing; if you list him, I don’t know what to tell you.

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[Karbo]

I was hopeful about Archer, so bummed when he failed. I expected Bundy to fail ,Happ didn't look bad early on but sure tanked in the end. The others had such low expectations they got what they paid for.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Nice rundown of these pitchers. Each was unique, with a couple being (what appears in hindsight as) really delusional and most simply being poor gambles.

Thanks for the recap. Now I'm going to try to never think of those people again. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

My own suspicion is we will be signing another of this type this off season. I'm predicting one of Spencer Turnbull or Dakota Hudson.

[Brandon]

I don’t understand why everyone hates the Bundy signing so much.  I mean at the time we were hoping for a top of the rotation arm, but Bundy was exactly what we paid him to be.  He was a competent 4th starter who went 8-8 and led the staff in innings pitched.  He was also clearly on his last leg of his career. But he only cost 4 million plus a 1 million buyout of his option.  
 

Archer pitched ok except he couldn’t get past the 4th inning.  The Twins should’ve moved Archer to the pen mid season.  
 

JA Happ was ok until his last 3 starts.  I mean he wasn’t a third starter we were hoping for more of a fifth starter but then the wheels came off and we were lucky to get something for him at the deadline.  Grant who did what Happ and Shoemaker couldn’t.   He was ok in the rotation.  
 

The worst part about Shoemaker is the Twins had to keep him in the rotation because their 6,7,8 and 9th starters were all hurt.  
 

Another free agent starter the Twins signed was Odorizzi when he accepted the QO from the Twins.  
 

Martin and Hill were fine signing’s remember the price point.  
 

some advice.  If the Twins sign a starter for 8 million or less you should expect 5th starter results then be surprised if the Twins unlock something and we get more.  Everyone else does.  That’s why the pitcher is so cheap.

[jorgenswest]

Bundy received Cy Young award votes in 2020. He was a reasonable risk. He had a good April over 4 starts but by his 10th start in early June it should have been clear that it was time to move on. The mistake wasn’t signing him. It was not being willing to let him go. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Both Bundy & Archer were signed on to be part of a piggyback system because they had promise in being used in limited innings. The piggyback system was abandoned, and we had a terrible BP that blew up early even putting added stress on the rotation and a terrible catching crew. Bundy & Archer pitched well early but the extra burden proved too much for them. If Archer was brought back this last season he'd have a much better season being one more year behind his surgery, having a ST, much better BP & game calling. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

My own suspicion is we will be signing another of this type this off season. I'm predicting one of Spencer Turnbull or Dakota Hudson.

You take that back.

[h2oface]

What a depressing summary.

How different would it have been if they had just ponied up and paid for what they had hoped Wheeler was worth and outbid the Phillies and whatever other teams were in the mix. It would have been a bargain for the contract he signed at $23.6/ year average per year for 5 years, as Wheeler "has the most fWAR (19.3) of any starter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season, as he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 47% grounder rate over 629 1/3 regular-season innings in a Philadelphia uniform.  The right-hander has been even more dominant during the postseason, delivering a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 playoff innings to help carry the Phillies to an NL pennant and an NLCS appearance over the last two seasons." They certainly would have gotten more value than Wheeler got paid. A potential free agent at the end of next year, he will be entering his age 35 season when and if they Phillies don't/can't extend him. But these last 4 plus the one coming were the seasons to have Wheeler on the mound for you. Lopez, Gray, and Wheeler sure would have looked nice in the playoffs last year.....

[Swimbo]

We will have to see how the trade market shakes out, now that the big names have found homes. Twins have made 2 minor league signings. Alexy is of no interest, but maybe Goodrum will find a spot like Castro did. I'm too impatient but hopefully the Twins can surprise us early in January with a pitcher from Seattle,

[old nurse]

Judging by the values of free agents posted I don’t think anybody should be worried about them signing another Bundy or Hill type. No, for the price they would want to spend the team would get much worse. Trade a 10 million contract of a 2-3 war player to sign a pitcher at the about 10 million level is a possibility. Would a recycled Paxton be any different than Bundy?  Look for a trade. 

[Boswell]

Very happy to see that the Festivus tradition is alive and well!

Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack deserve a proper addition in 2024.  Trade the prospects that are desired by Seattle, Milwaukee or even the Pale Hose.  
 

Varland can be the swing man. 

[Doctor Wu]

I don't regret that the Twins took a chance on the likes of Bundy and Archer, and even Rich Hill. They pretty much pitched as expected. Of course, there was always the hope that they would be even better, or show flashes of their younger selves, but that just wasn't meant to be. But I think when we signed those players we really needed to fill the rotation with some veteran arms due to the scarcity of capable pitching prospects ready for the next step. This year that isn't the case. We have several guys in the system that can fill the role of 4th or 5th starter. The problem is finding that extra arm that can make a real difference and help us get in the playoffs again. It looks like trading for such an arm is our only real option this year. 

[LanceJS]

I didn’t mind the Bundy and Happ signings, especially Happ. Low risk options for back of the rotation starters. They just didn’t work out. Archer puzzled me because of his extensive injury history and when he could never go more than 4 innings in a start, why was always being used every 5th day? 
 

I am agreeing with the idea of trading for pitching rather than free agent signings - while those have had downsides as well (Mahle being the best example), when they get it right, they really get it right. 

[JD-TWINS]

Let’s break the mold in ‘24 and sign a FA that can get guys out….gonna cost some $$!!

Mike Clevinger costs us no trade assets, which brings value to the organization, and he pitched 131 innings last year……..3.77 ERA, about 27th in Baseball……..9-9 with a brutal White Sox club………..$26M for two years and a player option for year two would be a great motivator for him!

[mikelink45]

Yes - add Martin and Lynn.  The FO has all the analytic team to help them predict, This is a sorry lot.  

[PatPfund]

Actually, I would add all of the speed round guys, because it essentially gives a deeper view of the  'they always settle on Matty Shoe types' mode of thinking. (Though I get the point that you are saying even the cherry-picked list aren't all the same.)

I do think, though, that for a LONG time the FO had a fairly empty minor league cupboard, entered seasons with sketchy/incomplete rotations (note the times above you mention they had only 2-3 spots set), and then they went out and got these arms.

Even though WE shouldn't have expected much more than backend performance, the FALVINES penciled them in for rotation spots in conditions (that to some extent the Falvines created) that forced many of them into spots frankly beyond their abilities. 

Post 2019 was the absolute worst; they had historic offensive performances, fell short due to deeply flawed pitching... and then went out and put their major efforts into adding offense with the Donaldson deal.

To be fair, pursuit of more quality depth (coaching up younger talent, check; being masters of healing injuries or age not so much) seems to be the new mode of a hopefully wiser FO.

[saviking]

God, let's not operate like that again. 

[ashbury]

Here's why I lump the 5 together, and it's stated near the opening of this article: Not one of these gentlemen pitched one inning in the majors in the season that followed their signing with the Twins.

That's a pretty impressive streak of millions spent on pitchers who had nothing left in the tank.  No need for further elaboration or analysis.

[adorduan]

That list made me throw up in my mouth a bit. Yuck.🤮