The Table Setter, Dec 13, 2023: Little Giant, Twins SP Target Signs Elsewhere, Buxton and Mauer

[Matthew Trueblood]

The pace of the news is picking up, now. Alas, the Twins aren't yet one of the teams getting better.

Image courtesy of © Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

How many competent players would the Royals need to sign to go from 106 losses in 2023 to being genuinely competitive in 2024? It's probably an unrealistic number, but they've decided to try some things.

Giants Make Splash, Sign Jung Hoo Lee
The huge news of Tuesday was the Giants' six-year, $113-million deal with Jung Hoo Lee, by far the most enticing player ever to come straight out of the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), as evidenced by the record dimensions of that contract. This is a massive risk on their part, but the reward could be equally great.

Lee is a lefty-swinging outfielder with some real power questions. He's a career .340 hitter (yes, those still exist, somewhere in the world) in the KBO, but that league is famous for its inflationary offense and it's not as deep with good talent as MLB. Many people question whether he'll be able to generate any real jolt against Stateside big-leaguers, and if he doesn't, the pressure to stick in center field will ratchet up. That's worrisome, because whether he can do that is a matter of some debate among scouts.

All of that is true, but so is this: Lee has 1,014 plate appearances in the KBO since the start of 2022. Even with his 2023 interrupted and dimmed by injury, in those trips to the plate over the last two years, he's thumped 100 extra-base hits, drawn 115 walks, and struck out a grand total of 55 times. Merely touching the ball won't be enough in MLB, but Lee has the contact skills to threaten Luis Arraez for batting titles if the tools translate.

This doesn't quite count as a blow to the hopes of Twins fans, because only a select few held out any hope of landing Lee this winter. Given the local nine's payroll situation, though, this kind of deal was never within the realm of possibility. It's considerably more than most prognosticators expected Lee to get.

Seth Lugo Finally Hits it Big
By contrast, Seth Lugo is a name I identified as a good fit with the Twins' pitching predilections and their position in the market, weeks ago. Of course, there's a bit of the Twins' pitching DNA in Kansas City now, after they hired away former Twins minor-league pitching coordinator Zach Bove a year ago. That's where Lugo has landed, on a two-year deal with a player option for 2026.

If Lugo exercises that option in two years, the final terms of the deal will be $45 million over three years. That would be more than this Twins front office has ever spent on an external starting pitcher in free agency, so it's not a surprise that they didn't go there. The Royals paid a premium to lure the lanky righthander to a small market and a losing situation. Still, it's one of the first moves of the winter that could make a Twins fan feel genuinely left out. Lugo could have made them better, at a reasonable price.

Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, and the Whole Game
I've been thinking often, lately, about Byron Buxton's foggy future in center field. No matter how promising the reports are right now, we can't say for sure whether Buxton will ever play center field again--let alone do so on a regular basis. That's not a pessimistic answer to all that optimism; it's just a realist reading of the healthy history of a man who just spent an entire season confined to designated-hitter duties.

It makes me genuinely ache to see players who play baseball as well and as beautifully as Buxton plays center be rendered unable to participate in some major part of the game. It's not a new ache, to me or to any Twins fan, of course. As I think about Buxton and feel Schrödinger's grief over the possible loss of the defensive part of his game, I'm led back to Joe Mauer. Watching him be forced out from behind the plate by concussions and have to take up residence at first base for the final half-decade of his career hurt. It was limiting. It was beneath Mauer, who played the game with such grace and unexpected agility. 

Remember the play on which Miguel Sanó most clearly affirmed the stupidity of the experiment to put him in right field, early in 2016? On that play, amid the carnage of the collision in shallow right, Mauer raced out, seized the ball, and threw a gorgeous strike to third base for an unlikely out. It's one of my favorite plays ever, because for just a moment, Mauer had been released from his sentence to a safe, boring life at the cold corner. He got to play the full game, with all its speed and difficulty.

When I think back on his career, in addition to any number of hits or that hustle double in Game 163 in 2009 or his deke and diving tag at the plate or the poignancy of his momentary return to catching in his final game, I think of that play Mauer made. I hope we don't have just a couple of poignant vignettes like those for the second half of his career. He deserves better, just as Mauer did. Anyway, I wrote about that Mauer play (from a very personal lens) at the time, and the archives at Baseball Prospectus are free, so go read it if you'd like. And if you see a Hall of Fame voter today, tell them to vote for Mauer.

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Would you have wanted to see the Twins wade in and take the risk the Giants took on Lee? Who's your preferred target, now that Lugo is off the board? Do the Royals worry you at all? Let's talk some ball.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Thank you for bringing back the memory of that Mauer play. I remember it fondly too. :)

I can't say I was really sad about not having Lugo. I think he has decent stuff, but he is 34 and last year he threw the most innings of his career in a season BY FAR (by almost 50 innings.) I hope he does well with the Royals. I want us to aim a step above for this offseason.

Lee, I think, lands in a really good spot with the Giants. He certainly will be interesting to follow.

[weneedneshek]

Pretty bummed about Lugo, even with our self imposed restrictions we could've easily made that work and wrapped up our biggest need of the offseason without losing any trade capital

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Pretty bummed about Lugo, even with our self imposed restrictions we could've easily made that work and wrapped up our biggest need of the offseason without losing any trade capital

Their biggest need is a pitcher better than Lugo.

[Matthew Trueblood]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Their biggest need is a pitcher better than Lugo.

I do think they can aim higher than Lugo, but he had a 91 DRA- last year. That's right in line with Braxton Garrett (whose cost will be paid in talent instead of money, the more renewable baseball resource), and bigger names like Nathan Eovaldi, Yu Darvish, and Alex Cobb. He was a good upside play, anyway. I do think the price he ended up commanding was a bit rich for the Twins' plans, though. Here's hoping they find a better fit in trade.

[rv78]

"  we can't say for sure whether Buxton will ever play center field again--let alone do so on a regular basis.  "

Unfortunately for Twins fans and for Buck, you could have made this statement a long time ago. He hasn't played on a regular basis most of his career.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Thank you for bringing back the memory of that Mauer play. I remember it fondly too. :)

I can't say I was really sad about not having Lugo. I think he has decent stuff, but he is 34 and last year he threw the most innings of his career in a season BY FAR (by almost 50 innings.) I hope he does well with the Royals. I want us to aim a step above for this offseason.

Lee, I think, lands in a really good spot with the Giants. He certainly will be interesting to follow.

Lugo was a reliever for nearly his entire time in the Bigs. I look at it like, he was given an opportunity and he proved he could perform as a starter. His career innings are fairly low due to how he’s been used. His ERA was top 20 in the game. Certainly worth serious consideration! I am sad.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, weneedneshek said:

Pretty bummed about Lugo, even with our self imposed restrictions we could've easily made that work and wrapped up our biggest need of the offseason without losing any trade capital

Lugo had a nice season last year, but 3 year deals for 34 year-old pitchers who have never thrown 150 innings in a season in their whole professional careers get a little wobbly. (yes, I'm aware that Lugo got asked to relieve for the Mets) I can understand why the Royals made the move; they needed starting pitching like the twins did 2 years ago and desperation usually means overpaying or struggling.

Love the Mauer memory. Real shame concussions robbed us of some much from Joe's career, but even with that lingering over him he gave us so many grand moments.

[weneedneshek]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Their biggest need is a pitcher better than Lugo.

Agreed, they certainly won't be spending money for someone better than him though. Guess we'll see who we have to give up

[weneedneshek]

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Lugo had a nice season last year, but 3 year deals for 34 year-old pitchers who have never thrown 150 innings in a season in their whole professional careers get a little wobbly. (yes, I'm aware that Lugo got asked to relieve for the Mets) I can understand why the Royals made the move; they needed starting pitching like the twins did 2 years ago and desperation usually means overpaying or struggling.

Love the Mauer memory. Real shame concussions robbed us of some much from Joe's career, but even with that lingering over him he gave us so many grand moments.

He has pitched 146 though, 162 to qualify as a 'full season' is not a stretch. The padres proved he could be ramped up and maintain the same quality numbers he put up relieving. I view his limited innings as a plus, very few miles on his arm for a 34 year old.

[MMMordabito]

Kansas City is looking to improve their farm system at the deadline in 2024.  JMHO.

 

[tony&rodney]

If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.

I'll only add, the offseason is kind of a blank slate right? They don't have to clear payroll first before adding now. 

They could, theoretically, add payroll first and then trade guys after right? Players don't have to be traded to open up salary room. There isn't a set order there.

If this were in-season that might be different. But with the offseason, it doesn't HAVE to be one before the other.

To me, they are trying to add a pitcher that is a clear upgrade over your Lugo's/Wacha's/middle to back of rotation types. 

[Karbo]

Another Mauer memory for me is when he would go back on a poput as a catcher and reach around the screen to catch it. With the protective screens now we'll never see that again.

[Teflon]

Quote

Would you have wanted to see the Twins wade in and take the risk the Giants took on Lee?

No. Byung-ho Park is still too fresh in our memories.

[Fatbat]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.

Or it could mean they only intend to do a trade if the right one comes around. Subtract out the traded away contract and add $20M for the new front line SP and $27-30M buys you alot of SP. 

[PatPfund]

Lee looks interesting, but I never pictured him in a Twins uniform; my number 1 (and I suspect the team's) goal is to use depth/resources on acquiring a couple starters (one at least #3 and a depth flyer). Unless the payroll thing is partially strategic, I can at least dream of internal fixes to positional needs (needs also cheaper to fix with in-season trades), but pitching is different. I'm sure even with adds we'll see SWR and Festa starting games for the Twins this year, but I'd rather not see it in April (which is how long it took last year's Opening Five to blow out a couple tires).

(So... the Lugo signing doesn't hurt specifically, but it starts to narrow the field of possible moves. Which winds the nerves up a bit.)

[TopGunn#22]

I wouldn't have given Lugo that contract, and though I liked Lee as a future CF and top of the order bat, I wouldn't have given him his contract either.  I still think (probably wrongly) that Bauer or Giolito could be signed for the same as Lugo, and I'd rather have either of them in our rotation.

I agree with Cory, it certainly LOOKS like they are trying to add someone who could be a #2 or at worst a #3.  I think they need two SP for additional depth and I'm not sure if that #2 guy will come via a trade or FA.  But I would consider Bauer & Giolito, based on what they have accomplished in their careers to be ahead of Joe Ryan and Baily Ober in our rotation.

If we trade Polanco for Edward Cabrera, I see Cabrera as our #5.  Even if we expanded the package with Miami to get Max Meyer I would see him as our #5.  And, even if we put a package together with Seattle for Miller or Woo, as young and as talented as they are, they would still be our #5 because they haven't accomplished as much as Ryan or Ober.  We're not getting Logan Gilbert unless we trade the following:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Logan Gilbert	27	Majors	SP		Low	4	108.1	42.1	65.9	52.7	65.9	79.1

Total Value:

65.9

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Griffin Jax	29	Majors	RP		Medium	4	32.1	17.8	14.4	11.5	14.4	17.2
Emmanuel Rodriguez	20	Minors	OF			0	0	0	17.1	13.7	17.1	21.5
Edouard Julien	24	Majors	OF			6	70.4	35.9	34.5	27.6	34.5	41.4

Total Value:

66

I posted this trade on BBTV just moments ago.  I'm betting I get about 10 "Thumbs Down" from Twins fans and probably just about as many from Mariner fans even though a solid bullpen arm, a bat like Julien at 2B and a young corner OF prospect with a good eye and BIG power sure seems like a haul.  If I wanted George Kirby instead of Gilbert, just throw in Walker Jenkins and you've got a deal.  

Gilbert or Kirby would step right in as our #2.  But that prospect haul is NOT GOOD for the Twins long term.  Better to spend $15-$17 million per year on a Bauer or Giolito type.  The other option is to lower our sights via trade for a Woo, Miller, Cabrera, Max Meyer type of young pitcher, but that guy will at least begin the season as our #4 with Paddack #5.  

[Blyleven2011]

A few years back Lugo was a spot starter for the Mets and had some success  , I was interested in him a few years ago but at 34 he was out of our price range,  3 years , 45 million  , he did well for a payday  ...

Kansas city  needed to improve their starting pitching  and he should help the royals out his first year for sure coming to another league has some advantages ... 

Maybe the royals won't finish in last place in 2024 ...

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll only add, the offseason is kind of a blank slate right? They don't have to clear payroll first before adding now. 

They could, theoretically, add payroll first and then trade guys after right? Players don't have to be traded to open up salary room. There isn't a set order there.

If this were in-season that might be different. But with the offseason, it doesn't HAVE to be one before the other.

To me, they are trying to add a pitcher that is a clear upgrade over your Lugo's/Wacha's/middle to back of rotation types. 

We are likely working from different guesses. I'm guessing the Twins are going to land in the $120-130 million range for a roster budget, but I CLEARLY don't know. Thus, the Twins won't add guys with the knowledge that they have to reduce later via trade because their options would be severely restricted due to a need to sell.

I'm also guessing that trades are the path that the Twins are looking towards in order to improve the team. I also believe the Twins are looking to trade for a pitcher that fits in with Pablo Lopez. The Twins are not going to sign a pitcher like Montgomery or Snell because that is not their practice.

Now could the Twins do something far different? Of course. They could also issue a statement that they came very close to signing Ohtani. Anything can happen.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Or it could mean they only intend to do a trade if the right one comes around. Subtract out the traded away contract and add $20M for the new front line SP and $27-30M buys you alot of SP. 

Yes, I agree the Twins are looking to make a trade. There is zero chance in my opinion that the Twins sign a player for big bucks even if they clear dollars first. They have not played in that territory.

As I often say, anything can happen. I would bet a grand against a Snell or Montgomery signing.

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I wouldn't have given Lugo that contract, and though I liked Lee as a future CF and top of the order bat, I wouldn't have given him his contract either.  I still think (probably wrongly) that Bauer or Giolito could be signed for the same as Lugo, and I'd rather have either of them in our rotation.

I agree with Cory, it certainly LOOKS like they are trying to add someone who could be a #2 or at worst a #3.  I think they need two SP for additional depth and I'm not sure if that #2 guy will come via a trade or FA.  But I would consider Bauer & Giolito, based on what they have accomplished in their careers to be ahead of Joe Ryan and Baily Ober in our rotation.

If we trade Polanco for Edward Cabrera, I see Cabrera as our #5.  Even if we expanded the package with Miami to get Max Meyer I would see him as our #5.  And, even if we put a package together with Seattle for Miller or Woo, as young and as talented as they are, they would still be our #5 because they haven't accomplished as much as Ryan or Ober.  We're not getting Logan Gilbert unless we trade the following:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Logan Gilbert	27	Majors	SP		Low	4	108.1	42.1	65.9	52.7	65.9	79.1

Total Value:

65.9

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Griffin Jax	29	Majors	RP		Medium	4	32.1	17.8	14.4	11.5	14.4	17.2
Emmanuel Rodriguez	20	Minors	OF			0	0	0	17.1	13.7	17.1	21.5
Edouard Julien	24	Majors	OF			6	70.4	35.9	34.5	27.6	34.5	41.4

Total Value:

66

I posted this trade on BBTV just moments ago.  I'm betting I get about 10 "Thumbs Down" from Twins fans and probably just about as many from Mariner fans even though a solid bullpen arm, a bat like Julien at 2B and a young corner OF prospect with a good eye and BIG power sure seems like a haul.  If I wanted George Kirby instead of Gilbert, just throw in Walker Jenkins and you've got a deal.  

Gilbert or Kirby would step right in as our #2.  But that prospect haul is NOT GOOD for the Twins long term.  Better to spend $15-$17 million per year on a Bauer or Giolito type.  The other option is to lower our sights via trade for a Woo, Miller, Cabrera, Max Meyer type of young pitcher, but that guy will at least begin the season as our #4 with Paddack #5.  

That trade includes a prospect and the Mariners have specifically stated that they are looking for MLB ready guys with lower K-rates. I believe it best to take people at their word, although i will grant anyone that people change their minds. Substitute Bailey Ober for Emm-Rod and you might get some interest. Additionally, Julien does strike out more than both Polanco or Brooks Lee, so maybe a substitution is needed there as well.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.

Not necessarily. The only MLB moves the Twins had made last year at this point (12/13/22) were the Farmer/Urshela trades on 11/18. Vazquez was signed on 12/16, Gallo on 12/20, Castro on 12/23, and Correa on 01/11. The Lopez and MAT trades happened in late January. It was reasonable to expect that most of the moves would be made within 20 days of New Year's Day at the onset of the offseason, and I haven't seen anything to render that expectation inaccurate.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Not necessarily. The only MLB moves the Twins had made last year at this point (12/13/22) were the Farmer/Urshela trades on 11/18. Vazquez was signed on 12/16, Gallo on 12/20, Castro on 12/23, and Correa on 01/11. The Lopez and MAT trades happened in late January. It was reasonable to expect that most of the moves would be made within 20 days of New Year's Day at the onset of the offseason, and I haven't seen anything to render that expectation inaccurate.

I can't disagree with you really.

I'm going off of a couple of things. The Twins (Falvey) loosely indicated a reduction in payroll. I'm guessing somewhere from $120-130 M. Of course this could be far different, it is just a guess. Last year I guessed $150 million. I was low then too.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I can't disagree with you really.

I'm going off of a couple of things. The Twins (Falvey) loosely indicated a reduction in payroll. I'm guessing somewhere from $120-130 M. Of course this could be far different, it is just a guess. Last year I guessed $150 million. I was low then too.

It'll be interesting to see what the "reduction" in payroll actually means.

The payroll situation was tentative coming into last year as well as it looked like Bally Sports was getting ready to fold. In the offseason, a bunch of one-year deals were signed, and the long-term contracts (Lopez and Correa) both get a sizable pay raise in '25 (same with Chris Paddack). I'm guessing that they had anticipated some kind of budget crunch last offseason, and they made decisions accordingly (quiet deadline). The good news, I guess, is that the FO has had a year to plan around budget cuts, however large or small the cut will be

[DJL44]

I've been thinking more about the qualifying offer and the Ohtani contract. The QO is calculated as the average of the top 125 paid people in MLB. For Ohtani do they use the $70M number or the $46M for this calculation? That is a difference of $200,000 increase in the value of the QO.

In 2023 the 125th highest paid player was Joey Gallo at $11M.

MLB Salary Rankings | Spotrac

Replacing him with Ohtani's $70M will move the value of the QO up by $470k. Every player who signs for more than $11M (including arbitration eligible like Soto) will bump out someone in the 2024 list of the top 125 highest paid players. MLB trade rumors is predicting 8 arbitration awards above $11M and we are likely to see 20 more free agents get $11M or higher. The 125th highest paid player will probably earn $12.5M in 2024. With the number of $20M+ contracts handed out this offseason I would not be surprised to see the QO top $22M next winter.

[Beast]

The Royals are now signing free agents to contracts that would be historic for the Twins, and the commentary is that it’s too expensive.

Nothing like capitalizing on the minuscule amount of momentum they’ve created with the fan base after a decade plus of ineptitude.

They should teach this as a case study in business schools for what not to do to grow a brand and improve/expand brand loyalty.

Im sure the phones at the season ticket sales office are smoking hot right now.

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.

It's starting to look like the list of spring training invites might be the highlight of our off-season! But speaking of that, when are the ST invites announced?

[ValleySpringsFan]

22 hours ago, Teflon said:

No. Byung-ho Park is still too fresh in our memories.

And Nishioka. Can't forget him, either, no matter how I try.