Goodbye, Emilio Pagán: Ex-Twins Reliever Signs with Reds in Free Agency

[darin617]

Very smart for mid tier players to sign as soon as possible and before all big name free agents sign and take all the money.

[DocBauer]

A great example of recency bias. He's only had 2 or 3 solid/good seasons in his career. And work the Twins staff had with him allowed him to have one of those good seasons in 2023. And to be fair, forgetting 2022, he was actually good last season. But for the Reds to offer up that kind of deal, player friendly to boot, is just ridiculous! Take off the binoculars and use your eyes. His career doesn't equal this kind of deal, especially in a ballpark that allows tons of HR.

Based on his work with the Twins staff, and the 2023 results, I actually wanted him back for $4-5M. No way would I even consider what he got, even for 1yr. But with him gone, and Moran out for all of 2024 with TJ, the pen situation is down at least 1 man going in to next season as of now.

THE GOOD:

Duran is a STUD. Jax is really good, though he was a bit erratic last season with poor luck, a few bad appearances, and stretches where he was dominate. Stewart was OUTSTANDING. His arm...possibly due to not being ready for a full season of work to all the time he missed previous seasons...gave out for several weeks. But he responded well when he came back and looked much like his old self. Not over used, it might be expected his arm is more ready for a full season at this point. Thielbar still had a very good 2023, overall. His issue was an oblique injury and probably came back too soon. It would appear that fully healthy, he's got another solid year or so left in his arm. It's not like he has thousands of innings there. And Funderburk showed some real ability, mirroring what he had been doing in 2023 and before once shifted to the pen. As a rookie making his appearance late, he showed potential. And they've been pretty smart about conversions to the pen, as well as some FA pickups that have been good to very good.

THE MEDIOCRE:

As the 40 man sits right now, there is a collection of arms that appear to be AAAA in nature. It's filled with arms, unfortunately, that were top 10-20 on all prospect lists the past few seasons but have mostly disappointed due to injury and ineffectiveness. To be fair, at least some of said disappointment IS due to injury, but certainly not all. IMO, Headrick is an arm to watch. Not sure the average fan realizes he only had 1/3 of a AA season before being promoted to the 40 man and AAA. He flashed enough in 2022 for the Twins to keep him. Again, he also flashed in ST last season, looked pretty solid in early appearances, and then mostly faltered later on. But there's something to work with there. Winder has a great slider, and is working on a different FB, sinker I believe, that looked better late in 2023, to remain relevant. Velocity isn't everything. Balazovic needs to stay healthy, avoid bizarre situations, and come to camp and prove his previous top 100 prospect status wasn't a mirage, and he still has the stuff and mindset to make himself, instead, a viable, hard throwing, good slider pen option. Sands needs to keep velocity up, throw his wicked curve consistently, and prove that he deserves more than sitting on the bench for a week at a time before being a multi inning sacrifice.

There's a real chance a fully recovered Canterino is ready for pen work at some point. And in case anyone/everyone forgot, the still only 28yo SEEMED to figure stuff in 2021. He's basically been hurt since. But he was throwing high 90's late in 2023 on his rehab. Winter ball might do wonders for him. But even if he's not ready opening day, he might just jump everyone else here.

There's something to work with all of these guys. Question remains if any of them step forward to be the next Trombley, Guerrero, Jax, etc. If even ONE does, it changes the complextion of the pen.

THE BAD:

The base is set, and it's not bad. But at least ONE quality arm is needed to make the pen deep enough, complete enough, to compete beyond just winning the ALC. Believe it or not, losing Pagan and the depth/potential of Moran opens a hole, or two. The FO has actually done a pretty good job of pulling rabbits out of the hat previously.  Just last season they found Stewart, and to a lesser degree, they got some good innings from DeLeon before his arm imploded. And again, they've done a pretty good job of identifying internal arms and moving them to the pen. (I'm DELIBERATELY leaving Varland out of the conversation for obvious reasons).

But in past seasons, thinking depth for a competitive team, they protected the likes of Charlie Barnes, Beau Burrows, Kyle Barraclough, Ian Gibaut, and probably someone I missed. In ST last year they had veterans Hoffman and Coulombe throwing well and just let them go for nothing. Hoffman had a real nice season with the Phillies and Coulombe did the same with the Orioles. Neither were difference makers the way Stewart was. But if you're going to bring in invites looking for a steal, you have to recognize when you have one. Both Hoffman and Coulombe would have looked good in the first half of 2023 when Alcala washed out due to injury.

Even with payroll restrictions, which I believe puts the Twins about $140M, if things are run right, I think there's room to add ONE previously proven arm. Or, at least, I hope so. There's potential for the "mediocre" arms to step forward.  But I'm hoping when all is said and done...knowing the FO sits back and waits a lot...there will still be ONE quality arm that they pull the trigger on to make the pen at least 6 deep.

[gil4]

Quote

Like Matt Capps before him, Pagán is one of those relievers who was not truly awful in his Twins tenure. However, the bad moments overshadowed the good, and will forever keep him among the ranks of polarizing relievers in Twins history.

Pagan started out more like Ron Davis than Matt Capps.  The biggest problem with Capps was that we gave up Wilson Ramos to get him.  

[arby58]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins

I'll take that bet.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Even with payroll restrictions, which I believe puts the Twins about $140M, if things are run right, I think there's room to add ONE previously proven arm. Or, at least, I hope so. There's potential for the "mediocre" arms to step forward.  But I'm hoping when all is said and done...knowing the FO sits back and waits a lot...there will still be ONE quality arm that they pull the trigger on to make the pen at least 6 deep.

Agree - it's not how much money you spend, it's whether you spend it wisely. Gray, when they traded for him, was wise spending. Last year, Farmer and Solano were wise spending - Gallo was worth a flyer and had his moments. I highly doubt Pagan is worth what the Reds spent for him - look at what the Twins unearthed with Stewart last year. I sort of feel the same about Maeda. My guess is they will trade for a 4-5 pitcher who is younger and has less risk. We shall see.

That said, the track record with high priced starting pitchers is not great. This front office seems to get that, even if some fans don't.

[Dave Borton]

8 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

...he should be proud of his resilience, and I'm happy for him. Reds opponents might be even happier come July. Twins will be just fine without him, I think.

The lad is just too erratic. Bottom of the 9th, Pagan enters in relief. My butt is biting the recliner...

No longer. Phew, can now get the recliner reupholstered.

[Boswell]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins will be shopping the after-Christmas clearance hoping to find relievers for 75% off. They bought their CF and SS in the scratch-and-dent aisle.

Following the stellar postseason performances, Correa deserves rightful praise from _all_ of us.  I’m fine with snark and even booing if July comes, we’re 10 games back and our SS batting .190.  
 

As to Buxton, we continue to watch and wait.  Yes, if only he could play 100 games in CF in 2024… we may be sunk if the Wunderkinder think “hope” is a plan.  
 

“All I want for Christmas is a championship.”  (Santa could fill it in with the Timberwolves too)

[Blyleven2011]

SAY GOODBYE to my little friend  ...

GOODBYE , ADIOS  , GOOD RIDDANCE ...

Hope Cincinnati  knows what there doing with a 2 year contract ...

Sorry pagan , you just didn't impress me ...

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, davidborton said:

The lad is just too erratic. Bottom of the 9th, Pagan enters in relief. My butt is biting the recliner...

No longer. Phew, can now get the recliner reupholstered.

I'd throw the recliner out , it can't smell to good either ...

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

A great example of recency bias. He's only had 2 or 3 solid/good seasons in his career. And work the Twins staff had with him allowed him to have one of those good seasons in 2023. And to be fair, forgetting 2022, he was actually good last season. But for the Reds to offer up that kind of deal, player friendly to boot, is just ridiculous! Take off the binoculars and use your eyes. His career doesn't equal this kind of deal, especially in a ballpark that allows tons of HR.

Based on his work with the Twins staff, and the 2023 results, I actually wanted him back for $4-5M. No way would I even consider what he got, even for 1yr. But with him gone, and Moran out for all of 2024 with TJ, the pen situation is down at least 1 man going in to next season as of now.

THE GOOD:

Duran is a STUD. Jax is really good, though he was a bit erratic last season with poor luck, a few bad appearances, and stretches where he was dominate. Stewart was OUTSTANDING. His arm...possibly due to not being ready for a full season of work to all the time he missed previous seasons...gave out for several weeks. But he responded well when he came back and looked much like his old self. Not over used, it might be expected his arm is more ready for a full season at this point. Thielbar still had a very good 2023, overall. His issue was an oblique injury and probably came back too soon. It would appear that fully healthy, he's got another solid year or so left in his arm. It's not like he has thousands of innings there. And Funderburk showed some real ability, mirroring what he had been doing in 2023 and before once shifted to the pen. As a rookie making his appearance late, he showed potential. And they've been pretty smart about conversions to the pen, as well as some FA pickups that have been good to very good.

THE MEDIOCRE:

As the 40 man sits right now, there is a collection of arms that appear to be AAAA in nature. It's filled with arms, unfortunately, that were top 10-20 on all prospect lists the past few seasons but have mostly disappointed due to injury and ineffectiveness. To be fair, at least some of said disappointment IS due to injury, but certainly not all. IMO, Headrick is an arm to watch. Not sure the average fan realizes he only had 1/3 of a AA season before being promoted to the 40 man and AAA. He flashed enough in 2022 for the Twins to keep him. Again, he also flashed in ST last season, looked pretty solid in early appearances, and then mostly faltered later on. But there's something to work with there. Winder has a great slider, and is working on a different FB, sinker I believe, that looked better late in 2023, to remain relevant. Velocity isn't everything. Balazovic needs to stay healthy, avoid bizarre situations, and come to camp and prove his previous top 100 prospect status wasn't a mirage, and he still has the stuff and mindset to make himself, instead, a viable, hard throwing, good slider pen option. Sands needs to keep velocity up, throw his wicked curve consistently, and prove that he deserves more than sitting on the bench for a week at a time before being a multi inning sacrifice.

There's a real chance a fully recovered Canterino is ready for pen work at some point. And in case anyone/everyone forgot, the still only 28yo SEEMED to figure stuff in 2021. He's basically been hurt since. But he was throwing high 90's late in 2023 on his rehab. Winter ball might do wonders for him. But even if he's not ready opening day, he might just jump everyone else here.

There's something to work with all of these guys. Question remains if any of them step forward to be the next Trombley, Guerrero, Jax, etc. If even ONE does, it changes the complextion of the pen.

THE BAD:

The base is set, and it's not bad. But at least ONE quality arm is needed to make the pen deep enough, complete enough, to compete beyond just winning the ALC. Believe it or not, losing Pagan and the depth/potential of Moran opens a hole, or two. The FO has actually done a pretty good job of pulling rabbits out of the hat previously.  Just last season they found Stewart, and to a lesser degree, they got some good innings from DeLeon before his arm imploded. And again, they've done a pretty good job of identifying internal arms and moving them to the pen. (I'm DELIBERATELY leaving Varland out of the conversation for obvious reasons).

But in past seasons, thinking depth for a competitive team, they protected the likes of Charlie Barnes, Beau Burrows, Kyle Barraclough, Ian Gibaut, and probably someone I missed. In ST last year they had veterans Hoffman and Coulombe throwing well and just let them go for nothing. Hoffman had a real nice season with the Phillies and Coulombe did the same with the Orioles. Neither were difference makers the way Stewart was. But if you're going to bring in invites looking for a steal, you have to recognize when you have one. Both Hoffman and Coulombe would have looked good in the first half of 2023 when Alcala washed out due to injury.

Even with payroll restrictions, which I believe puts the Twins about $140M, if things are run right, I think there's room to add ONE previously proven arm. Or, at least, I hope so. There's potential for the "mediocre" arms to step forward.  But I'm hoping when all is said and done...knowing the FO sits back and waits a lot...there will still be ONE quality arm that they pull the trigger on to make the pen at least 6 deep.

Moran and henrique have elected free agency  .. 

[BH67]

But for some Twins fans, the implosion of 2022 will be how they always remember him...,the bad moments overshadowed the good, and will forever keep him among the ranks of polarizing relievers in Twins history.

Do you think the Twins even considered a reunion with Pagán?

$8M a year for two years to avoid a fan base that chooses to see his glass half empty even after his masterful performances this past September? That's an easy call.. Of course, the Twins understandably wouldn't have paid anything close to that.

Emilio, thank you for being key in the stretch run to the Twins winning the 2023 AL Central title. I was a harsh critic, but you earned plaudits galore. Bravo.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, BH67 said:

 

But for some Twins fans, the implosion of 2022 will be how they always remember him...,the bad moments overshadowed the good, and will forever keep him among the ranks of polarizing relievers in Twins history.

Do you think the Twins even considered a reunion with Pagán?

$8M a year for two years to avoid a fan base that chooses to see his glass half empty even after his masterful performances this past September? That's an easy call.. Of course, the Twins understandably wouldn't have paid anything close to that.

Emilio, thank you for being key in the stretch run to the Twins winning the 2023 AL Central title. I was a harsh critic, but you earned plaudits galore. Bravo.

In 2023 Pagan had 1 save, 8 holds and 5 blown saves.  Which means he blew the lead in more than 1 of three games. He was so good he ended up tied for 119 in the majors in holds.

He did have a pretty good run in September against some really bad teams. Good for him on getting crazy money!

[jmlease1]

I think the Twins leaned their lesson from Addison Reed to avoid multi-year deals at market-rate or above for non-elite relievers in their 30's. They passed on bringing Trevor May back, correctly, who got a similar deal to Pagan and had a better track record. May was good in year one and bad in year two. Pagan seems like a good dude, so good for him in getting the deal...sure glad it's not with the Twins, because the odds are low that he'll have 2 more good seasons in a row in the bullpen, particularly as he's getting older, when he's never had back to back good seasons before.

I would like another option in the bullpen, but it's awfully hard to know who will be good in these roles and a lot of these FA deals bust. And because the Twins struggle with sunk costs, even if they bring a guy in for $5M on a 1-year deal...if he stinks, they'll keep giving him chances, trying to find a way to extract value from the deal and the player. But i'm not feeling great about the options currently in the minors on the 40-man. Sure hope Winder, Sands, Balazovic, and Headrick are going to Driveline or the equivalent to find some answers...

[jorgenswest]

Last year in high leverage Pagán’s had an OPS against of .828. He pitched in high leverage situations in 21.6% of the batter he faced. More than half his batters faced were in low leverage situations. A late inning reliever like Jax will see more than 50% of the batter’s faced in high leverage. A closer will be over 60%.

For his career Pagán has been consistently solid in low and medium leverage and poor in high leverage with an OPS against of .845 for his career and an OPS against in the .600s otherwise. His overall numbers looked good last year when the Twins minimized his exposure in high leverage but were they very valuable? Are they worth giving a reliever entering his decline phase 2 years and 16 million? He is worth the contract if you believe the career long discrepancy between his high leverage performance and lower leverage performance is simply random and bad luck.

The Twins can afford an 8 million dollar reliever even with the cut budget. They need to spend it in someone they can count on late in games. Once they commit that money they aren’t going to cut the player loose. They need to spend it wisely. I don’t think spending it on Pagán for his age 33 and 34 seasons would be wise.

[Whitey333]

17 hours ago, rv78 said:

After taking into consideration the production they got in 2023 from these 2 guys, I wouldn't call it smart.

My statement was meant to suggest it was a stupid move on the Twins part to tie up  that much money on Correa and Buxton.  I tried to use the word smart sarcastically but failed.  Those signings will hurt the Twins for the next several seasons.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins players individual stats should have each improved in the second half of the 2023 season, due to the brutal first half schedule against really good teams, vs. the much easier second half schedule, which was rated as one of the easiest in all of major league baseball last year. 

[Otaknam]

Talk about overpaying! Pagan had a good year in 2023. But I would fear a regression to the disastrous 2022, where anytime he came into a high leverage situation I would shut off the TV. The high number of blown saves from Pagan was too much to swallow for me. 

[Minny505]

18 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I don't think his new home park is going to be very friendly to him, but congrats to him on being able to cash in after last season. 

Put the most homer-prone pitcher in MLB in the most homer-friendly stadium in MLB:

[mnfireman]

55 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

My statement was meant to suggest it was a stupid move on the Twins part to tie up  that much money on Correa and Buxton.  I tried to use the word smart sarcastically but failed.  Those signings will hurt the Twins for the next several seasons.

Maybe, maybe not. Kepler comes off the books after this season, as well as Farmer (if neither are traded beforehand), Polanco, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Alcala and the dead weight of Dobnak's contract the season after. This opens up approximately $50 MM, $22 MM of which will go to Lopez. They will be replaced by league minimum and arbitration eligible players who are among the teams best prospects.

[Woof Bronzer]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

Agree - it's not how much money you spend, it's whether you spend it wisely. 

Over the last 3 decades only 1 team in the bottom 3rd of payroll has won a World Series.  How much money you spend absolutely matters.  

[Jocko87]

57 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Put the most homer-prone pitcher in MLB in the most homer-friendly stadium in MLB:

Holy headline fangraphs! 😂 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-sign-pagan-risk-giving-up-emilion-home-runs/ 

[Trov]

I think the agreement was much higher than I would have offered him.  I wonder if Reds expect possible 9th inning roll, and he has shown that is not his roll.  He reminds me of Hawkins, a guy who was good and at times great set up guy, but once you tried to get him to be the "closer" he would falter. 

[saviking]

WOW! TWO YEARS `6 MILLION. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Over the last 3 decades only 1 team in the bottom 3rd of payroll has won a World Series.  How much money you spend absolutely matters.  

That's a pretty lop-sided point of comparison - on a standard deviation basis, there is a huge disparity between the very top and very bottom. We're not talking about the Twins entering into the very bottom zone, even with the cuts foreseen. The point is you don't have to be number 1, 2, 3 - or even 4, 5, 6 - to win the World Series.

[Doctor Evil]

I'm very pleased that he got a nice deal. Seemed like a real good guy.

That being said, I'm happy we are going in a different direction.

 

[Chachi]

This evens out the Mahle trade to an extent. 

[Woof Bronzer]

22 hours ago, arby58 said:

That's a pretty lop-sided point of comparison - on a standard deviation basis, there is a huge disparity between the very top and very bottom. We're not talking about the Twins entering into the very bottom zone, even with the cuts foreseen. The point is you don't have to be number 1, 2, 3 - or even 4, 5, 6 - to win the World Series.

Correct.  But you can't be 18-30 to win the Series either.  

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Correct.  But you can't be 18-30 to win the Series either.  

Incorrect. The 2003 Florida Marlins, with the 25th ranked payroll, won the World Series. Imagine that - only 5 teams had lower payrolls, and they won it all.

Other teams are close - 2002 Angels were 15th, 2015 Royals were 17th, as were the 2017 Astros. If you look at both teams in the World Series, there are more than a few that fall into the 18-30 range. 

[Woof Bronzer]

On 12/1/2023 at 3:47 PM, arby58 said:

Incorrect. The 2003 Florida Marlins, with the 25th ranked payroll, won the World Series. Imagine that - only 5 teams had lower payrolls, and they won it all.

Other teams are close - 2002 Angels were 15th, 2015 Royals were 17th, as were the 2017 Astros. If you look at both teams in the World Series, there are more than a few that fall into the 18-30 range. 

Yep, they're the 1 team in the last 30 years from 18-30 that has won it.  I've said this on many occasions - again, once in 30 years. If you come away from this with the opinion that "once in 30 years" is as likely of an outcome as the 29 times in 30 years it didn't happen, then obviously we (and the subject of mathematics) disagree.  

Serious question.  You defend this organization (that has won 1 playoff series in 3 decades, as a reminder) at every possible chance.  How come?  I'm not being snotty, I seriously want to know.  Perhaps you are a Pohlad or a member of the FO; that would make sense.  Short of that I'm just super curious, because I truly have never seen, in any professional sport, a fan defending payroll cuts.  Like, never ever, it doesn't happen because fans want the best team possible and fans don't care about accounting. Yet with the Twins there's a whole army of defenders.  Truly bizarre to me and I really want to understand it.  Thanks in advance for humoring me if you choose to.  

[arby58]

20 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Yep, they're the 1 team in the last 30 years from 18-30 that has won it.  I've said this on many occasions - again, once in 30 years. If you come away from this with the opinion that "once in 30 years" is as likely of an outcome as the 29 times in 30 years it didn't happen, then obviously we (and the subject of mathematics) disagree.  

Serious question.  You defend this organization (that has won 1 playoff series in 3 decades, as a reminder) at every possible chance.  How come?  I'm not being snotty, I seriously want to know.  Perhaps you are a Pohlad or a member of the FO; that would make sense.  Short of that I'm just super curious, because I truly have never seen, in any professional sport, a fan defending payroll cuts.  Like, never ever, it doesn't happen because fans want the best team possible and fans don't care about accounting. Yet with the Twins there's a whole army of defenders.  Truly bizarre to me and I really want to understand it.  Thanks in advance for humoring me if you choose to.  

To be fair and honest, you said it had not happened. I agree 1 in 30 is not often, but I also pointed out that there are others not so far from 18 (pretty revealing you chose that number). There are also a quite a few who were in the World Series but did not win it with below average payrolls.

I am not a Pohlad, nor I am a member of the front office. I was, however, the budget director of an $18 billion operation, and I 'get' that (a) budget cuts are often necessary in a profit-seeking business, and (b) spending alone does not necessarily drive results. 

I like a lot of what the current front office has done. They have traded for good starting pitching when a lot of organizations have crapped all over themselves with big free agent starting pitching contracts that end up as dead weight. They invested in the organization's infrastructure, and there is now a pretty strong pipeline as a result. They took some shots to try to compete, even when they didn't work out (all the Mahle trade haters, how many of you moan and groan when they don't do anything?). Bottom line is that I know what it is like to be in a high leverage position and have to pull the trigger on decisions. It's particularly interesting to see how the casual fan has stopped crying in their beer about the Lopez trade - I suspect people will feel the same way about Meada and Pagan (who, again, people were willing to ride out on a rail last year). These guys have not done a horrible job - I think a pretty good one. 

Yes, they have made some moves that haven't worked out, and at least one that was a pretty bad mistake (the trade of Pressley for not much in return). The Berrios return hasn't been great to date but the jury is still out (and Berrios didn't turn out to be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Toronto either). Still, the starting pitching trades in general, the trade for Duran, trade for Taylor, trade for Farmer - those were all key components from last year's team.

BTW, I said many of the same things about the T-wolves last year . . . and suddenly, things look pretty good for them as well.