Twins Make Arbitration Decisions; Moran, Henriquez Non-Tendered (Updated Article)

[stringer bell]

Farmer’s role in 2024 would be diminished because of Lewis being able to slide over and play short if Correa suffered a disabling injury (or Lee coming up to fill that void). He does hit left handed pitching well and is versatile, but so are Castro, Miranda and Martin.

Speed and range were never pluses for him, but he’d be another year older (34 in August), so I doubt his range will increase. 

[TopGunn#22]

You could make a case to tender each of them and they probably will.  However, Farmer will indeed be shopped and quite possibly traded by the time darkness falls in the state of Minnesota on Friday.  At that point, Gordon makes more sense.

I'm going to be a little contrary here and suggest that Thielbar is or should be a trade candidate.  He makes $3 million, by far the highest salary in our bullpen.  He's still effective but at 37 years old, how much longer will he be effective and as last season may have indicated, is he starting to break down.  At any rate, he's been passed up by Funderburk.  That kid has some crazy good stuff and is going to get a lot of work in 2024.

And we're looking at a bullpen in 2024 that could include Varland as well as someone like Matt Canterino.  The Twins philosophy has been to have young, cheap bullpen arms.  If they can throw mid to upper 90's like Funderburk, Varland, Alcala, Stewart, Jax, Canterino and of course Duran, so much the better.

If you trade Farmer and Thielbar the Twins free up nearly $10 million dollars.  Trade Polanco and it's almost $21 million.  Trade Kepler and it's $30 million.  

This allows you to go big game hunting for a solid free agent SP as well as trade for someone who would be affordable in 2024 (Corbin Burnes $15.1 million) but that you would be willing to shell out $25 million a year for 4 or 5 years for 2025 and beyond.  

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm going to be a little contrary here and suggest that Thielbar is or should be a trade candidate.  He makes $3 million, by far the highest salary in our bullpen.  He's still effective but at 37 years old, how much longer will he be effective and as last season may have indicated, is he starting to break down.  At any rate, he's been passed up by Funderburk.  That kid has some crazy good stuff and is going to get a lot of work in 2024.

I'd trade anyone in the bullpen if the return was right. Someone might put a high value on Brock Stewart and ignore his age and propensity for injury. Griffin Jax supposedly has one of the highest trade values on the team and he's pretty replaceable IMO.

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'd trade anyone in the bullpen if the return was right. Someone might put a high value on Brock Stewart and ignore his age and propensity for injury. Griffin Jax supposedly has one of the highest trade values on the team and he's pretty replaceable IMO.

He did not look easily replaceable last year.  We have 4 years of control in his prime.  Not high on my list of guys to get rid of.

[Reptevia]

I like how everyone on here has arbitrarily decided the payroll will be $140m. I haven’t seen anything from FO to indicate that. 

[Major League Ready]

Just now, Reptevia said:

I like how everyone on here has arbitrarily decided the payroll will be $140m. I haven’t seen anything from FO to indicate that. 

I believe someone reported 125-140.  Of course, we are all hoping for the $140M.  Thus, we have decided payroll will be $140M.  😎

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He did not look easily replaceable last year.  We have 4 years of control in his prime.  Not high on my list of guys to get rid of.

He was an exactly average pitcher according to baseball reference (0.1 WAA). He is 29 next season and only has one cheap year remaining before his salary starts increasing through arbitration. If someone wants to overpay for 60 innings of bang average relief pitching then I would let them. If trading Jax helps them replace Sonny Gray in the rotation then they should absolutely make that trade.

[saviking]

23 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I don't look at Farmer as $6m for a utility player.  It's $2m for the utility player, $4m for the insurance policy around the field.  I've said many times he's the most important guy to bring back of this group, even if everyone is healthy and productive he gets in 120-130 games as a plus factor replacement.  I would also expect to see him fool around in left field at some point in the spring.

He makes perfect sense for a team in this position and veteran dollars can't be spent much better.

I would agree 100% if we weren't cap-strapped this season. Not tendering Farmer would go a long way to help rectify this. I won't complain if we do resign Farmer but with Lee close to a call up we would HAVE to be planning to trade Polanco, which I think we will.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I'd trade anyone in the bullpen if the return was right. Someone might put a high value on Brock Stewart and ignore his age and propensity for injury. Griffin Jax supposedly has one of the highest trade values on the team and he's pretty replaceable IMO.

A comment about the bullpen--I don't think there is any other team (Athletics and Rockies included) that is projected to spend less money on their bullpen. The Twins have spent very little on free agent bullpen help and when they've acquired someone (Colomé, Addison Reed, Dyson, López, year one of Pagán) the results have been less that stellar.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

A comment about the bullpen--I don't think there is any other team (Athletics and Rockies included) that is projected to spend less money on their bullpen. The Twins have spent very little on free agent bullpen help and when they've acquired someone (Colomé, Addison Reed, Dyson, López, year one of Pagán) the results have been less that stellar.

The Twins should absolutely be developing relievers, not buying them.

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He was an exactly average pitcher according to baseball reference (0.1 WAA). He is 29 next season and only has one cheap year remaining before his salary starts increasing through arbitration. If someone wants to overpay for 60 innings of bang average relief pitching then I would let them. If trading Jax helps them replace Sonny Gray in the rotation then they should absolutely make that trade.

Did he look average to you?  A .65 ERA and 12.9K/P does not seem average to me.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Did he look average to you?  A .65 ERA and 12.9K/P does not seem average to me.

I don't think we're talking about the same player. Jax had an ERA of 3.86 and K/9 of 9.4.

Brock Stewart had an ERA of 0.65 but only threw 27-2/3 innings due to injuries. He's always had problems with injuries and now he's going to be 32 years old. I don't think the league has adjusted to him yet and I'm pretty confident he can't maintain an 0.65 ERA for 65 innings in 2024. I think he'll still be pretty good but I'm not confident at all the Twins will get 4 productive seasons out of him even though he's controllable for the next 4 seasons,

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

I like how everyone on here has arbitrarily decided the payroll will be $140m. I haven’t seen anything from FO to indicate that. 

Falvey stated that to a reporter at the GM meetings 10 days ago. He said that payroll would likely be cut back to the 125-140M range.

[TopGunn#22]

DJL44, you make a great point about Jax!  He has one of the highest values for an easily replaceable asset on our team.  It's one I've bounced around when looking at possible trades for solid starting pitching.  For example, if I wanted to trade for Corbin Burnes and I didn't want to give up Joe Ryan, I would would look at the fact the Milwaukee wants to slash payroll and go for a youth movement.  Bullpen pieces can get awfully pricey.  

Corbin Burnes BBTV of 32.0

Jax 19.1     Festa  8.7  Miranda  5.1  Total Value:  32.9

You can easily replace Jax with Varland.  And now you've gained a #1 SP who will cost you $15.1 million in 2024 and you have the opportunity, like you did with Pablo Lopez, to sign him for 5 years up to his age 35 season.  Why would Milwaukee want Jax?  Because of those 4 years of control and the certain loss of Williams, their closer.  

The value of Jax makes him a very interesting trade chip for a SP or maybe even a CF.  I'm not suggesting we SHOULD trade him, only echoing your point that we should consider what we could get in return for him and essentially replace him with Varland.  

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

DJL44, you make a great point about Jax!  He has one of the highest values for an easily replaceable asset on our team.  It's one I've bounced around when looking at possible trades for solid starting pitching.  For example, if I wanted to trade for Corbin Burnes and I didn't want to give up Joe Ryan, I would look at the fact the Milwaukee wants to slash payroll and go for a youth movement.  Bullpen pieces can get awfully pricey.  

Corbin Burnes BBTV of 32.0

Jax 19.1     Festa  8.7  Miranda  5.1  Total Value:  32.9

You can easily replace Jax with Varland.  And now you've gained a #1 SP who will cost you $15.1 million in 2024 and you have the opportunity, like you did with Pablo Lopez, to sign him for 5 years up to his age 35 season.  Why would Milwaukee want Jax?  Because of those 4 years of control and the certain loss of Williams, their closer.  

The value of Jax makes him a very interesting trade chip for a SP or maybe even a CF.  I'm not suggesting we SHOULD trade him, only echoing your point that we should consider what we could get in return for him and essentially replace him with Varland.  

This is why the trade values on that website are weird. If I could trade one Jax for two of Festa (a pitcher with better stuff and starter upside already in AAA) I would make that trade every day.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Did he look average to you?  A .65 ERA and 12.9K/P does not seem average to me.

I have been talking about Stewart.  

[Fatbat]

Whats the chance that Festa turns into a Burnes in 3 years? 

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Fully agree with your comments.  I would also add that i think Polanco is very likely to be traded.  While that won't bring a starting slot for Farmer, it makes his role even more critical.

My forecast keeps Polanco, at least until the deadline. Farmer in a starting spot means Isomething when wrong. He, and the whole team is better is he's a bench guy.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

My forecast keeps Polanco, at least until the deadline. Farmer in a starting spot means Isomething when wrong. He, and the whole team is better is he's a bench guy.

Why would farmer start if Polanco is traded?  Are you assuming Kirilloff is not able to return and Julien moves to 1st?

[stringer bell]

Well, I'm surprised. I wasn't aware that Moran would require TJ surgery, so it then becomes an easy decision to not offer him a contract, Pulling the plug on Henriquez is a bit surprising given his age, but I guess the front office doesn't see a way for him to contribute.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would farmer start if Polanco is traded?  Are you assuming Kirilloff is not able to return and Julien moves to 1st?

Wow, sorry about the autocorrect.  I would not start Farmer as a regular in almost any situation that isn't universally bad for the Twins.  I'd even bring up Lee as a regular at 2nd base to keep Farmer in the jack of all trades role.  I think that if it gets to him being a regular starter, lots of things had to go badly. 

Farmers value is that he can be a starter anywhere but using him as that starter diminishes that value.  The John Vander Wal curse, if you will.

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, I'm surprised. I wasn't aware that Moran would require TJ surgery, so it then becomes an easy decision to not offer him a contract, Pulling the plug on Henriquez is a bit surprising given his age, but I guess the front office doesn't see a way for him to contribute.

But a minor league rehab offer for Moran which means we can have this conversation again and again.

[IaBeanCounter]

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, I'm surprised. I wasn't aware that Moran would require TJ surgery, so it then becomes an easy decision to not offer him a contract, Pulling the plug on Henriquez is a bit surprising given his age, but I guess the front office doesn't see a way for him to contribute.

I'm surprised they didn't make these moves prior to the 14th so they could protect additional players from the rule 5 draft

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I'm surprised they didn't make these moves prior to the 14th so they could protect additional players from the rule 5 draft

Well, they might sign three players before the Rule V draft and then they'd only have one space to claim a Rule V player.

[Nashvilletwin]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, they might sign three players before the Rule V draft and then they'd only have one space to claim a Rule V player.

Exactly - the FO protected the players that made the most sense and now they have room to manoeuvre and add a few players.

[FlyingFinn]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, they might sign three players before the Rule V draft and then they'd only have one space to claim a Rule V player.

Do you think they will take someone in the Rule V? I don't see us taking anyone.

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Do you think they will take someone in the Rule V? I don't see us taking anyone.

I think they will try to leave a spot for a Rule V guy. Last year they could have carried a pitcher instead of the the Sands/Winder/Headrick triumvirate. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

But a minor league rehab offer for Moran which means we can have this conversation again and again.

If that works with Moran, I'd consider trying to do the same with DeLeon. 

[DocBauer]

Really stinks about Moran. I had hopes of 3 LH in the pen.

Henriquez is still pretty young and seemed to finish last season strong, so I'm pretty surprised about removing him. Wouldn't mind a milb deal to keep him around.

They need some open spots for signings and potential trade acquisitions. But with 4 spots right now, I wouldn't be shocked to see them grab a rule 5 pen arm.

[jorgenswest]

I do wonder what their plans are for the 4 remaining spots on the 40. They could have protected a few more from the rule 5 draft.