"Very strong chance" Twins trade Jorge Polanco This Winter

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Apologies, but using BA as the argument against Polanco is fairly weak:

2022 OPS+ 115  3.0 WAR
2023 OPS+ 115  2.0 WAR

He will be 30 in 2024.  He plays positions the the Twins need depth at (2B and 3B). Health is a concern, but even at 80-100 games he is still a bargain at $10m.

Do they need depth? Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro, currently on the 40 who all play 3rd and/or 2nd, plus Lee and Martin knockin’ on the door.

I concede Miranda is a question, you still have 5 guys for two positions

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Do they need depth? Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro, currently on the 40 who all play 3rd and/or 2nd, plus Lee and Martin knockin’ on the door.

I concede Miranda is a question, you still have 5 guys for two positions

I am assuming they are not looking at Julien as a long term answer at 2B.  Castro is not a full-time starter.  Miranda is not on the radar.

You would be looking at starters being 3B - Lewis, 2B - Farmer, UT - Castro.  Julien emergency 2B.  I would much rather have Polanco over Farmer and slide everyone else down a spot.

I am not convinced payroll will be significantly lower last year, regardless of public noise.  Now is not the time to be making your team worse.  Polanco is just too good when he is on the field.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Arguing that stats that compare the same thing for every player in baseball with the same criteria are biased while the human eye that can't possibly see every player in baseball, and are attached to a fan of a certain team are unbiased is a real bold claim. Our eyes do lie. All the time. Humans are nothing if not biased. Defensive stats have a long way to go still, but our eyes absolutely lie. And, if you want to get into the tall weeds on things, some of the defensive stats are based on human eyes. Eyes that watch far more games of far more teams than the typical Twins fan so the eye test is actually baked into some of those stats already. The eye test is almost never as effective as the stats, especially with the high speed cameras that are now used to produce some of the stats. Those cameras are so much better than the eye test it's not even worth discussing.

I want to condense your paragraph:

How accurate is the eye test when Derek Jeter wins a Gold Glove?

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Do they need depth?

Yes they do

[Mike Sixel]

If you plan for Buxton to be hurt, you have to go get a CF......if that's how you think Polanco plays.....

He should be traded for prospect(s), preferably SP or C. I don't know how you PLAN to not play Buxton during the spring.....and it doesn't make sense to have one of Polanco or Julien on the bench, not when you can turn one of them into assets that can be on the field at the same time as the other one.

Given the team's constraints now and in the future, it makes sense to keep the less expensive one, the younger one. 

From an asset management and 26 man perspective, it just makes sense for one of them to go. 

[1985Fan]

Very interesting ideas and opinions on trading Polanco. Here’s my opinion ( maybe worth two cents). 
1. You trade Polanco if FO has determined that is how to net Sonny Gray replacement. I’m sure they’d like to keep him, but you have to give up value to get value. There are pitchers on the trade market, or so rumors tell us fans. Burnes and possibly some of the young arms from Seattle (Bryan Woo?). 
The other thing trading Polanco does is free up that money for FA target. Same with Kepler and Vazquez. 
2. Trade from position of strength, and with Julien and Lee, they probably feel they have a reasonable chance to replace Polanco’s production. You can argue it’s not the same, but that’s the gamble you have to take. They need more than Lopez at the front end of the rotation, and relying on Paddack to pitch a full season seems risky. Or hoping that Ober, Ryan, or Varland will take their game to the next level is also very risky.

3. I don’t care what defensive stats say, Polanco is, at best, ok at 2nd base. He is not ok at 3rd base or SS. Hope that other teams think he is to increase his value, but Twins should know he is not viable option at other than 2nd base. Does everyone remember his last season at SS? They immediately decided to replace him there. He is not a good fielder; limited range, weak arm, and prone to errors. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you plan for Buxton to be hurt, you have to go get a CF......if that's how you think Polanco plays.....

He should be traded for prospect(s), preferably SP or C. I don't know how you PLAN to not play Buxton during the spring.....and it doesn't make sense to have one of Polanco or Julien on the bench, not when you can turn one of them into assets that can be on the field at the same time as the other one.

Given the team's constraints now and in the future, it makes sense to keep the less expensive one, the younger one. 

From an asset management and 26 man perspective, it just makes sense for one of them to go. 

Are they getting a legit starting CF'er and not a backup/4th OF'er type? Clogging up the DH spot and penciling in an offensive black hole in CF daily seems like a much poorer asset management strategy.

Julien's ability to hold down 2B at even a passable level defensively is still a massive question mark. There are plenty of ABs in the DH role and 1B for him alongside the occasional starts at 2B.

I don't understand why we're in a hurry to move valuable depth on the IF in order to make room for what is likely much less valuable depth in the OF. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Are they getting a legit starting CF'er and not a backup/4th OF'er type? Clogging up the DH spot and penciling in an offensive black hole in CF daily seems like a much poorer asset management strategy.

Julien's ability to hold down 2B at even a passable level defensively is still a massive question mark. There are plenty of ABs in the DH role and 1B for him alongside the occasional starts at 2B.

I don't understand why we're in a hurry to move valuable depth on the IF in order to make room for what is likely much less valuable depth in the OF. 

I'm in no hurry to do anything....I just believe Polanco is bad at 3b and SS, and they can't have him and Farmer sitting around doing nothing many days......it's just not good asset management. Polanco brings back a very good to great prospect, IMO. They need those too, especially SP and C......If you get ride of Farmer, who backs up 3B and SS if Castro is your backup CF (or starter)? 

At some point, you have to trust your young guys....and for me, this is that point with Julien. IF they deal Julien instead, well, that wouldn't be the worst decision, but that's 10 million more a year for 2B than Julien, which is also an issue for this team, like it or not. At some point, you can't only have veterans making millions at every spot. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Arguing that stats that compare the same thing for every player in baseball with the same criteria are biased while the human eye that can't possibly see every player in baseball, and are attached to a fan of a certain team are unbiased is a real bold claim. Our eyes do lie. All the time. Humans are nothing if not biased. Defensive stats have a long way to go still, but our eyes absolutely lie. And, if you want to get into the tall weeds on things, some of the defensive stats are based on human eyes. Eyes that watch far more games of far more teams than the typical Twins fan so the eye test is actually baked into some of those stats already. The eye test is almost never as effective as the stats, especially with the high speed cameras that are now used to produce some of the stats. Those cameras are so much better than the eye test it's not even worth discussing.

As a mathematician I would somewhat disagree. Slash stats are cited often but need huge samples and arguments are made based on a season or partial season as if that is how the player will perform in the next season. I do believe the data teams have tell a better story. I also believe daily in-person eyes of a skilled and trained human are better than the stat line.

As for me, my eyes are not trained and skilled and the data I have really can vary. I offer opinions with the knowledge that I have many blind spots both with the data and from what I have seen. I have to go into it with an open mind and consider the ideas here whether they are based on the insufficient data or the eye test.

I think it is worth discussing.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

As a mathematician I would somewhat disagree. Slash stats are cited often but need huge samples and arguments are made based on a season or partial season as if that is how the player will perform in the next season. I do believe the data teams have tell a better story. I also believe daily in-person eyes of a skilled and trained human are better than the stat line.

As for me, my eyes are not trained and skilled and the data I have really can vary. I offer opinions with the knowledge that I have many blind spots both with the data and from what I have seen. I have to go into it with an open mind and consider the ideas here whether they are based on the insufficient data or the eye test.

I think it is worth discussing.

People misusing stats is different than stats being biased. The human is biased and selectively choosing which stats to use in what way. The other poster said stats are biased and "your eyes don't lie." That is wrong. Our eyes lie to us all day long, and our brains are wired to be biased.

The best trained human eyes are not as good as the technology we now have in place. In person scouting is still absolutely important. Especially at the amateur level for the draft, and international free agents. But we don't need scouts as much at the big league level because of the technology that's in place. The stuff that scouts are looking at are now measured with equipment the human eyes and brain have no chance to compete with. "Makes consistent hard contact" can be boiled down to exact numbers now. "Needs more extension on his fastball" can be boiled down to exact numbers now. There's a reason guys are going to Driveline, or similar companies, in the offseason to work on pitches and not just getting together with a coach who will eyeball things.

Yes, stats can absolutely be used in biased ways, but stats themselves are not biased. Knowing how to use them, or choosing to use them correctly/honestly is up to people. The humans are the ones that are biased, not the numbers.

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, stats can absolutely be used in biased ways, but stats themselves are not biased.

Of course stats are biased. Sports are particularly troublesome but because each event is collected under different conditions instead of a controlled environment. Understanding statistical bias and the root causes are at the heart of the study of statistics.

[AWOLNATION_11]

The front office/coaches would know better than me, but I would think that Polanco has enough athleticism and ability to play 1B.  Why isn't the plan to have Polanco work on 1B in the offseason to help be a solution to that 'offseason need'?  

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

At some point, you have to trust your young guys....and for me, this is that point with Julien. IF they deal Julien instead, well, that wouldn't be the worst decision, but that's 10 million more a year for 2B than Julien, which is also an issue for this team, like it or not. At some point, you can't only have veterans making millions at every spot. 

That's the key point, bolded.  I wish we could keep every valuable vet, and Polanco has value.  But we can't afford to keep them all.

For a mid-market team like the Twins to win 90+ games and advance in the playoffs it is imperative to get significant production from a few inexpensive players.  The Twins have a couple of young infielders (Julien, Lee) who have the potential to be as good as Polanco, or perhaps even better.  They cost league minimum.

Better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.  I like Polanco, but if we can get good value in return I think you have to trade from an area where there is surplus talent.  We have surplus 2nd basemen.  If not Polanco, you almost have to look at trading Julien or Lee.  Twins need more pitching, among other things.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am assuming they are not looking at Julien as a long term answer at 2B.  Castro is not a full-time starter.  Miranda is not on the radar.

You would be looking at starters being 3B - Lewis, 2B - Farmer, UT - Castro.  Julien emergency 2B.  I would much rather have Polanco over Farmer and slide everyone else down a spot.

I am not convinced payroll will be significantly lower last year, regardless of public noise.  Now is not the time to be making your team worse.  Polanco is just too good when he is on the field.

I agree with you on Polanco but disagree on Julien. I think the FO sees him as the full time 2B next year if he continues to hit and continues to improve defensively. I think he is the expected longer term 2B at least until Lee actually hits at AAA. That hasn't happened yet. . Personally, I'd love to keep Polanco because he is a clutch hitter and a good teammate. I wish he could have the Farmer role people are talking about but his defensive decline makes that difficult to see. I would also think about giving him a 1B glove instead of looking for a free agent. Unfortunately, I think he's likely to be traded for pitching if there's a market. 

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Ahem

 

.223/.376/.369 with a 32% K rate. That was Julien from August through the end of the year. He has to be able to stick defensively and show he's capable of handling LHP too. This isn't a slam dunk. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm in no hurry to do anything....I just believe Polanco is bad at 3b and SS, and they can't have him and Farmer sitting around doing nothing many days......it's just not good asset management. Polanco brings back a very good to great prospect, IMO. They need those too, especially SP and C......If you get ride of Farmer, who backs up 3B and SS if Castro is your backup CF (or starter)? 

At some point, you have to trust your young guys....and for me, this is that point with Julien. IF they deal Julien instead, well, that wouldn't be the worst decision, but that's 10 million more a year for 2B than Julien, which is also an issue for this team, like it or not. At some point, you can't only have veterans making millions at every spot. 

What team is giving up a good to great pitching or catching prospect for 2 years of Polanco in his 30s? That seems like a pipe dream to me.

Figure out what you're doing in CF. Are you bringing in an actual, everyday CF'er and relegating Buxton to full time DH, or is Buxton playing regularly in CF until he' inevitably lands on the IL. To me there's no in-between. Starting a backup in CF for 120+ games while Buxton clogs the DH spot while also trading one of the better bats from an already inconsistent lineup is terrible roster management. 

Sure, and I don't disagree, but there's a way to trust your young guys without weakening your team. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

What team is giving up a good to great pitching or catching prospect for 2 years of Polanco in his 30s? That seems like a pipe dream to me.

Figure out what you're doing in CF. Are you bringing in an actual, everyday CF'er and relegating Buxton to full time DH, or is Buxton playing regularly in CF until he' inevitably lands on the IL. To me there's no in-between. Starting a backup in CF for 120+ games while Buxton clogs the DH spot while also trading one of the better bats from an already inconsistent lineup is terrible roster management. 

Sure, and I don't disagree, but there's a way to trust your young guys without weakening your team. 

If he's not worth a good prospect, he's not worth playing....If he's some really good hitter, then he's worth at least one good to great prospect. 

[nicksaviking]

33 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What team is giving up a good to great pitching or catching prospect for 2 years of Polanco in his 30s? That seems like a pipe dream to me.

 

I’d firstly be looking to package him plus a good prospect(s) to get back starting pitching.

The Marlins, Mariners and Brewers may be very interested.

If not, I’d wait and reevaluate to see what’s happening with the very few free agents I’m interested in.

[TopGunn#22]

Speaking of eye tests...Rafael Palmiero winning a Gold Glove at 1B...when he was a DH for virtually the entire season!!!  That was the ultimate "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW !!  We'll see yah, tomorrow night"  moment.  

I agree with Morosi, Polanco is going to get traded in a package of players to either get us a pitcher (Miami?) or a CF.   As someone wrote, and was kind enough to put it BOLD letters, you can't have every spot filled on your team with veterans making $10 million or more.  Unless you're the Yankees or the Dodgers. 

We have young talent knocking on the door to be admitted to "The Show."  It worked out pretty well last season.  Let's keep it going.   

[Road trip]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I’d firstly be looking to package him plus a good prospect(s) to get back starting pitching.

The Marlins, Mariners and Brewers may be very interested.

If not, I’d wait and reevaluate to see what’s happening with the very few free agents I’m interested in.

I don't know if the Brewers intend to contend next year... they may be in full fire-sale mode.  But if they want to contend, 2b was a black hole of dismal hitting for them last year.  Maybe Brice Turang will develop, but I sure wouldn't feel much hope after he OPS'd .585 last year.

[Riverbrian]

The only reason that you move Polanco is to free up cash in order to spend that cash on another player.  

If anyone is thinking we should move Polanco because it's crowded and we have younger players who are better... we don't yet. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The only reason that you move Polanco is to free up cash in order to spend that cash on another player.  

If anyone is thinking we should move Polanco because it's crowded and we have younger players who are better... we don't yet. 

Julien was empirically better than Polanco last year and more available.

Polanco’s value to return value in trade diminishes once the season starts and again after the trade deadline. 2 years of relatively cheap control is more valuable than 1.5 or 1.

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The only reason that you move Polanco is to free up cash in order to spend that cash on another player.  

If anyone is thinking we should move Polanco because it's crowded and we have younger players who are better... we don't yet. 

Or to add prospects you believe in.....there are plenty of reasons to deal him. We also don't know if he's going to be healthy, when was he last for more than 100 games (rounding up or down)?

So, I'm dealing him for salary room and prospects.

I understand those that want to keep him, but you can't do that unless you are moving him or Julien to DH or 1B....otherwise it is a waste of roster space for one of them.

[bigdave]

Definitely trade Polanco. Get a young pitching arm that can help the staff for the next several years.

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Julien was empirically better than Polanco last year and more available.

Polanco’s value to return value in trade diminishes once the season starts and again after the trade deadline. 2 years of relatively cheap control is more valuable than 1.5 or 1.

I don't think we should move Julien either. I think we should be adding talent to Polanco and Julien. 

Julien was indeed better last year... at least against right handers because he wasn't really allowed to face left handers. 

Julien better last year doesn't mean that Julien will be better next year. Miranda was good in 2022... not so much in 2023. It's risky dice roll to say we got Julien and Lee coming so let's start throwing productive vets out of the way. Lewis hasn't been healthy for an entire year. We are not infield crowded to the point that it makes sense to move a guy that has performed pretty nicely during his lengthy stay with the club. 

Now if Arraez for Lopez trade falls out of the sky. Yes of course you have to consider that but I'm not sure that Polanco can fetch what we need. Polanco is more valuable to us by being a better hitter than that right handed short side platoon specialist that we replace him with. 

Players get hurt... players with options don't always perform well.  

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or to add prospects you believe in.....there are plenty of reasons to deal him. We also don't know if he's going to be healthy, when was he last for more than 100 games (rounding up or down)?

So, I'm dealing him for salary room and prospects.

I understand those that want to keep him, but you can't do that unless you are moving him or Julien to DH or 1B....otherwise it is a waste of roster space for one of them.

If Polanco gets traded we need major league talent in return. 

We don't know if he is going to be healthy... I'd bet against him avoiding the DL... We also don't know if Lewis will be healthy... if Julien will be healthy... If Correa will be healthy. If Castro will be healthy. The fact that we don't know who will be healthy is exactly why you don't trade him in my opinion. 

As far as Julien moving to DH or 1B or Polanco moving some place. I've said it enough times. I'm not worried about that at all.

What I want is 26 guys who can play because we will need more than 26 guys over the course of a long season. We have reached the point where our young controlled cheap talent with options are bubbling up to major league ready... This is where you want to be. Now you supplement that depth with better than average vets who can put us over the top. This is not the time to get rid of someone like Polanco.   

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If Polanco gets traded we need major league talent in return. 

We don't know if he is going to be healthy... I'd bet against him avoiding the DL... We also don't know if Lewis will be healthy... if Julien will be healthy... If Correa will be healthy. If Castro will be healthy. The fact that we don't know who will be healthy is exactly why you don't trade him in my opinion. 

As far as Julien moving to DH or 1B or Polanco moving some place. I've said it enough times. I'm not worried about that at all.

What I want is 26 guys who can play because we will need more than 26 guys over the course of a long season. We have reached the point where our young controlled cheap talent with options are bubbling up to major league ready... This is where you want to be. Now you supplement that depth with better than average vets who can put us over the top. This is not the time to get rid of someone like Polanco.   

Those 26 guys need to play a position....and Julien and Polanco play the same position. I don't get how that's not a thing....you can't have, for example, 26 pitchers or 26 slow, plodding catchers. 

You want to have a deep farm system, you have to deal vets that are redundant....even when the team is good. 

Polanco can't play SS or 3B, other than in an emergency. He isn't a catcher, or OF. That leaves 2B, 1B, and DH......A team with budget constraints can't have a 10MM player that is a utility/bench player. So he's a starter. Where are you starting him? And if you are starting him, who is on the bench (2B, 1B, or DH.....Julien, AK, Buxton most likely). I'm ok if you want him at 1B or DH "full time".....but is that really the best use of him?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I’d firstly be looking to package him plus a good prospect(s) to get back starting pitching.

The Marlins, Mariners and Brewers may be very interested.

If not, I’d wait and reevaluate to see what’s happening with the very few free agents I’m interested in.

If you're parlaying him into a Gray replacement I'm open to the idea of a swap. Moving Polanco hurts this offense, and if you're going to deal from an area that isn't a strength, returning impact talent is about the only justifiable swap if the goal is to improve upon this last season. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's not worth a good prospect, he's not worth playing....If he's some really good hitter, then he's worth at least one good to great prospect. 

I guess if you ignore all context, i.e. the length of his contract, his age, the needs/budget of the team trading for him, the 2B market in general, ect. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

I guess if you ignore all context, i.e. the length of his contract, his age, the needs/budget of the team trading for him, the 2B market in general, ect. 

He's controllable for 2 more years, and I'm told the 10MM is a massive bargain......so, I'm not ignoring any context at all.