Targeting Free Agent Hitters to Suit the Twins' Needs

[Nick Nelson]

From a position-player perspective, the Twins have a pretty simple and straightforward set of needs. They don't need catchers or infielders – if anything, it makes more sense to subtract at those spots via trade than add via free agency. They also don't need left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Same deal. So we'll filter those player types out of this list, which highlights top potential Twins targets.

The front office does have a couple of clear needs to address, namely the roles filled in 2023 by Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano. The Twins are once again planning around major uncertainties at first base and center field. Running it back with one or both is among the many possibilities in front of the team. 

You will find plenty of options covered in our Offseason Handbook rundown of 15 free agent hitters who could specifically interest the Twins. Read on to find a few of those names or – if you're a Caretaker – all of them! (Player ages listed are as of Opening Day 2024.)

Shohei Ohtani, DH
Age: 29
2023 Stats: .304/.412/.654, 44 HR, 10.0 WAR
Previous Team: Angels

Wouldn't it be fun? Ohtani won't pitch next year after undergoing elbow surgery but plans on returning to the mound in 2025. Meantime he'll have to settle for being the most prolific slugger on the planet. This one-of-a-kind phenom will likely get a contract approaching or exceeding a half-billion dollars. While tying up the DH spot is not ideal, Ohtani would be a great fit for the Twins, and any other team in baseball. We can dream.

Estimated Contract: 10 years, $480 million

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF
Age: 28
2023 Stats: .307/.356/.525, 26 HR, 4.4 WAR
Previous Team: Cubs

Bellinger took a one-year contract with the Cubs and made good. Although not quite back to the MVP form of his 2019 peak, he was excellent in Chicago and will earn a big payday as a result. Bellinger is an especially intriguing target for the Twins because he plays both of the positions they most need to address (center field and first base). His price tag will be hefty, and his mysterious mid-career dropoff looms large as a concern in that light, but Bellinger is a star talent. He is also a nearly ideal player type for Minnesota's situation. If the franchise wanted to make a bold and aggressive push to maximize their contention window, this move would qualify. So would the next.

Estimated Contract: 4 years, $80 million

Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Age: 31
2023 Stats: DNP
Previous Team: Phillies

Hoskins suffered a knee injury in spring training that cost him the entire 2023 season – unfortunate timing in a free-agent walk year. He will still score a sizable contract this winter thanks to his extraordinary offensive consistency preceding that mishap; in six seasons, he never posted an OPS+ below 111, averaging 36 homers per 162 games. Like Bellinger, Hoskins would be an emphatic statement signing for the franchise. Both are Scott Boras clients.

Estimated Contract: 4 years, $68 million

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[Doctor Gast]

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you Nick. Although Vazquez elevated our catching from bottom of the barrel to middle of the pack we are not very good in depth. Our catching prospects are so low it's hard to find them on the prospect list & those who are highest on that list are years away to arrive at the show.  C, CF, SS, 3B & 2B is where you need the greatest quality of depth. CF maybe Martin will rise up & fill that void. I truly hope so but to solely trust on that is wreckless, especially if we don't know where we stand with Buxton.  Castro can adequately cover CF & INF but I wouldn't want to depend on him to play there in any extended time. Only quality defensive INF we have are Correa, Lewis & Polanco. Maybe Farmer if he's still around. 

Yet where you see a need at 1B/ DH which aren't  premium positions we are very deep in. Buxton (DH), Kiriloff, Julien, Miranda & Farmer (1B) if he's still around.

[Karbo]

It would be interesting to try to pickup Lee if the price is near the estimate. Otherwise maybe go for MAT again and offer Cron a minor league with invite type contract. Otherwise try to low ball Solano, or work out a trade.

[Otaknam]

Hoskins would be a good addition, but at the expense of Kiriloff’s development. He is also a needed right handed bat, which Bellinger isn’t. Any free agent needs to be a right handed bat or switch hitter, and preferably can play defense. 

[Galen]

PITCHING!

[TopGunn#22]

I think the Twins need to address at least one SP slot through trade or FA before they go hunting for a bat (CF or 1B type).  And I'd almost feel more comfortable if they addressed BOTH SP slots through FA or trade before they go hunting for a bat.  

I like what Jung-hoo Lee could bring to the lineup (an elite contact hitter with some power) and defensively in CF.  

[tony&rodney]

I'm only interested in two guys who are reasonable to sign and fit in the Twins new budget: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kevin Kiermaier. 

The Twins are likely to move on from Farmer and sadly, Kepler and Polanco are included in trades.

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm only interested in two guys who are reasonable to sign and fit in the Twins new budget: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kevin Kiermaier. 

The Twins are likely to move on from Farmer and sadly, Kepler and Polanco are included in trades.

Then the Twins would regress , not improve; that makes no sense.

[Fatbat]

Don’t we need an always gets on base and swipe 2nd twice a week type guy? We got plenty of swing and miss guys and a GIDP specialist.  Lets add more baserunners. 

[saviking]

It's fun to dream but with Correas and Buxtons al.ost 50 mill in salary and losing a lot of TV revenue we probably left with our minor league system, which is not a bad thing by the way. 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, RpR said:

Then the Twins would regress , not improve; that makes no sense.

Your idea? Write it out and send it in.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Galen said:

PITCHING!

Have been a big Jordan Montgomery cheerleader in this Forum for last 3-4 weeks!

Also, see value in an upside guy that’s much less cost, like Severino of Yankees (great stuff) & maybe Maeda as well for solid depth.

Also, trading Miranda - Larnach - Moran to open 40 man spots & to get Corbin Burnes for a year is intriguing.

My latest thought is (no bats, per your headline, “pitching”) and send the same 3 guys to Milwaukee for Devin Willams. This allows Varland to go back to the rotation while having an elite set-up guy!!! Still sign Maeda for depth.

 

[RpR]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Your idea? Write it out and send it in.

Status Quo.

[Brandon]

I read an article last night about Korean and Japanese players the Twins should target here, and I like the OF who was gold glove caliber and could be a doubles machine.  I forget his name.  
from This article I like the idea of Hoskins who could be a 1B / DH.   
 

But in reality,  I would be thrilled just to have Solano and Taylor back.  I don’t think the 1B hole is as big after the news Killeroff’s surgery went best case scenario (Holy Moly, we never get best case what is that)?  While there is no news yet, I suspect Buxton’s knee will improve enough for him to get back out on the field atleast half of the time.   I think we just need a good bench like last season and someone who can play 50% or more of the time in CF with mega awesome defense, 30+ stolen base potential, strikes out 6% of the time to help bring those numbers down for the team and Walks 20% of the time with a .300 average and only costa 3 million or less….  Or MAT or Kiermaier will do nicely if we can sign one of them.  

[PatPfund]

If the Twins are serious about cutting payroll, this is where you do it. The Saints OF was so good this year that even after several call-ups (and the release of Mark Contreras essentially for this reason) former Twins "mainstay" Gilberto Celestino had problems staying on the field, and was eventually let go himself. Austin Martin, DeShawn Keirsey, and Michael Helman can all play CF; Martin and Helman hit RH. You traded a staff ace for Martin, a 5th overall pick who just had a great season at AAA. If not now, when? Our need for RH hitters is also over-rated; Miranda, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton all hit RH, and there is great reason to expect the first three to have healthier, more productive years in 2024. (Byron remains a cypher; I hope the latest operation is more effective than last year's, but if his knee has chronic issues, we may have already seen the best we will see there.)

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Status Quo.

How does that work? Resign Gray, Maeda, Pagan, Gallo, Taylor, Solano, etc.?

[DocBauer]

A $140M payroll allows about $23M to add to the roster. Farmer gone pushes that number to $30M.

The Twins have yet to sign a FA for $20M+ and for more than a couple of years. Not saying they won't, and haven't tried a couple of times, but unless the payroll stays at $155M...or goes up...through some unknown expectation, it's not going to be this year. That leaves some sort of trade...and that player will still have some $ cost...or a lesser FA like Wacca, Giolito, etc. That allows some yet to be determined amount to add SOMEONE. Is that a 1B? A RH OF? A CF option to hedge against Buxton and not turn the spot over to a potential rookie audition?

I get the love for Castro, and I like him too. He's depth in the OF AND the INF. But I don't think he's a full time CF, or even 50/50 share time CF. He's a good backup and fill in there.

Not tryibg to be a downer, but the idea of adding some big, powerful bat or mega $20M plus arm is just very, very doubtful for 2024. Could a bat fall in to our lap late in FA the way Cruz did? Absolutely. And that would have the Twins rethinking their approach for sure.

But right now it's SP first priority, and then a CF or other spot bat that's affordable and can fit a need. 

[jkcarew]

I’m on board with a quality right-handed 1B/DH bat. That would go a long way toward improving/stabilizing the offense.

Gotta pretend that Buxton doesn’t exist (other than the contract…sigh). He’s not a great DH regardless. Also, there’s a difference between shoulder surgery being “medically” successful, and shoulder surgery that restores the ability to hit major league pitching at a high level without regression or reinjury. Kirilloff remains a house of cards, until he proves otherwise. Meanwhile, Miranda did nothing to re-establish himself in St. Paul…in fact, he did the opposite of that.

[Major League Ready]

The Twins offense was quite good after the AS break.  I would determine what to do with position players after taking a run at Montgomery / Rodriquez oe perhaps Stroman.  If we can't land one of those guys maybe we take a chance on Giolito or Maeda.  Once the pitching spend is determined we address the position players.

If we spend $25M on a SP it becomes necessary to trade 1 or 2 of Polanco / Farmer and Kepler and I would prioritize keeping them in the reverse order.  Kepler is a starter where the other two are bench players and we have far more depth in the IF.  The next priority is CF.  If we could sign Kiermaier or Jung-Ho Lee, I would trade Polanco or Farmer or both.  We can get a very good SP and Kiermaier or Lee for $140M but Polanco would have to go and possibly Farmer as well if it were one of the top SPs.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

for $140M

This is the unknown. Right? I mean ... How does a payroll of $125M or less change your team?

Can one ignore that the Twins have never signed a top FA SP for market value?

While I play around with configuring a 2024 Twins roster, those questions seem inescapable. However, the one thing we do know is that you just never know.

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is the unknown. Right? I mean ... How does a payroll of $125M or less change your team?

Can one ignore that the Twins have never signed a top FA SP for market value?

While I play around with configuring a 2024 Twins roster, those questions seem inescapable. However, the one thing we do know is that you just never know.

I sure hope they don't opt for the low end of the range we are hearing.  I have played with the numbers and possible combinations quite a bit and have come up with what I think is a good roster at 137-140M.  Of course, you still have to convince guys to come here and we will be up against a lot of big market teams looking for pitching. 

The part about never having spent does not weigh quite as heavily for me as some others here.  We never signed a player like Correa before either.  Perhaps more importantly, I don't remember a time when we had so much young (cheap) talent.  That significantly changes the decision parameters.  

My gut tells me they sign Maeda or equivalent but there is a path to a good free agent SP provided the market does not pay an absurd amount this year which is all together possible.  I would love it if we could somehow use Polanco to trade for pitching but that is not a likely Scenario, especially for a front of the rotation guy.  Teams willing to trade such a pitcher want elite prospects which I am very much against doing.  That's a short-term emphasis with a huge potential down-side.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We never signed a player like Correa before either. 

When Isaid that same thing to myself, I remembered that the Twins have spent for Puckett, Mauer, Donaldson (position players) as opposed to their reluctance to go years and money for pitching. The Pablo Lopez extension gives some hope though. 

[MTV]

Needs this off-season:

-Starting CF option to take pressure off of Buxton/Castro

-1B option to have a fall-back option for Kirilloff/Julien/Miranda

-#4 Hitter who excels at driving in runs and can hopefully hit left-handed to balance Lewis batting 3rd and Correa batting 5th

-clutch post-season hitter that can carry this offense in October

Cody Bellinger fits all of these boxes, sure there are other needs on the team (a #2 SP) but the front office has some solid trade capitol and can trade for a starter. What really sells me on Bellinger is that he’s a perfect fit for this team (reminder, he also crushes lefties) but you probably won’t find anyone who can remotely fill his production on all facets of the game at the positions he fills. Sign the man.