Twins rumored to have interest in Kevin Kiermaier for CF

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, darin617 said:

Can someone please explain War to me like I'm 12. 

Michael A Taylor put up a 1.9 War and KK put up a 3.9 War.  To me it looks like Taylor had the better year stat wise. Unless most of that War for KK is from defense which is even more confusing...

According to BBRef, Taylor was -4 runs from hitting, +1 from base running and +5 runs from fielding. Kiermaier was +2 runs from batting, +1 runs from base running and +18 from fielding. I know all of us liked what Taylor did in the field, but according to this source Taylor was good, but Kiermaier was elite.

[RpR]

45 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

According to BBRef, Taylor was -4 runs from hitting, +1 from base running and +5 runs from fielding. Kiermaier was +2 runs from batting, +1 runs from base running and +18 from fielding. I know all of us liked what Taylor did in the field, but according to this source Taylor was good, but Kiermaier was elite.

Kiermaier

Talylor

[Fatbat]

I don’t think we should go after kiermeier or anyone else for CF. We have 3-4 internal solutions. Its a temporary issue anyhow (2024) as we have Erod and Jenkins on the express train in the minors. The FO should focus on the P word. 

[Riverbrian]

 

13 hours ago, darin617 said:

Can someone please explain War to me like I'm 12. 

Michael A Taylor put up a 1.9 War and KK put up a 3.9 War.  To me it looks like Taylor had the better year stat wise. Unless most of that War for KK is from defense which is even more confusing...

 

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

According to BBRef, Taylor was -4 runs from hitting, +1 from base running and +5 runs from fielding. Kiermaier was +2 runs from batting, +1 runs from base running and +18 from fielding. I know all of us liked what Taylor did in the field, but according to this source Taylor was good, but Kiermaier was elite.

Varsho Rds is 29 compared to Kiermaier's 18 compared to Taylor's 5.

According to these numbers... no matter what we saw with Taylor in the OF last year. The Folks in Toronto were witnessing a level of defense so amazing that a new word beyond elite needs to be invented to describe it. According to these numbers... Michael A. Taylor would be booed out of the stadium because they have witnessed the superman defense that Varsho provided.   

Varsho

WAR 3.9

OPS .674 

Keirmaier

WAR 3.9

OPS .741

A. Taylor

WAR 1.9

OPS .720 

Let's add Vlad Jr 

WAR 2.0

OPS .788

A CF will average 2.5 total chances per game. Non Routine plays occur once every 2.5 games. 

I will need someone to explain the weighting of the defensive metrics that are folded into WAR like I'm 12.  

 

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

 

Varsho Rds is 29 compared to Kiermaier's 18 compared to Taylor's 5.

According to these numbers... no matter what we saw with Taylor in the OF last year. The Folks in Toronto were witnessing a level of defense so amazing that a new word beyond elite needs to be invented to describe it. According to these numbers... Michael A. Taylor would be booed out of the stadium because they have witnessed the superman defense that Varsho provided.   

Varsho

WAR 3.9

OPS .674 

Keirmaier

WAR 3.9

OPS .741

A. Taylor

WAR 1.9

OPS .720 

Let's add Vlad Jr 

WAR 2.0

OPS .788

A CF will average 2.5 total chances per game. Non Routine plays occur once every 2.5 games. 

I will need someone to explain the weighting of the defensive metrics that are folded into WAR like I'm 12.  

 

Yeah, it’s such utter nonsense. Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances, and as you mention, most of those defensive chances are routine. Also, unless players start getting 10+ chances every game, it’s not logically possible for one player to be 3.6x better than another player defensively.
 

Evaluate offense. Then evaluate defense. Then evaluate which area is more important to your current roster/position/player/lineup needs.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it’s such utter nonsense. Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances, and as you mention, most of those defensive chances are routine. Also, unless position players start getting 10+ chances every game, it’s not logically possible for one player to be 3.6x better than another player defensively.
 

Evaluate offense. Then evaluate defense. Then evaluate which area is more important to your current roster/position/player/lineup needs.

I pretty much agree. However, defense that is a step above good should be recognized as well as defense that is dreadful (I'm thinking Delmon Young, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit). It is really tough to get a handle on defense, merely looking at number of errors is a waste of time, but every team tends to overrate their defenders IMHO. Taylor was good last year, but most regular center fielders are good. 

[specialiststeve]

Why? Castro showed that he has the ability to play in center and fits perfect. Have Martin sitting in AAA with the ability to also play the position. No need. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Evaluate offense. Then evaluate defense.

Kiermaier is better than Taylor on offense, too.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Why? Castro showed that he has the ability to play in center and fits perfect. Have Martin sitting in AAA with the ability to also play the position. No need. 

If Castro is the main CF then they don't have a utility player. Kiermaier would be replacing Nick Gordon on the current roster, not Castro.

[Otaknam]

Kevin Kiemaier Is another lefty bat with a lefty oriented lineup. So I don’t see the fit.

[KBJ1]

Enough with the mediocre backups.

Trade for SP or make a splash & sign Yamamoto to an 8-10 yr deal. He is young & potential upside could be Hugh.

Martin should take the CF spot - a high average contact hitter with speed & defense. RH slugger for LF is our toughest hole to fill.

Otherwise time to trust in the youngsters- Julien, Lee, Kiriloff, Miranda, Wallner, Martin - to get it done.

Trade Kepler & Polanco, keep Farmer and Castro (obviously).

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Kiermaier is better than Taylor on offense, too.

That wasn't what I was getting at.

If I had to pick between the two, I'd pick Kiermaier over Taylor in a heartbeat.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances

Because I like this point so much, I want to go even farther.  Players get 4 or 5 pitches per plate appearance to demonstrate their skill, by picking and choosing, and then giving the ball a ride if they can.  Usually defenders get to demonstrate their skill just one or two ways on a ball in play - go get the ball, maybe make a contested throw.

Fewer Total Chances than Plate Appearances. Fewer granular actions within.

We'd call a batter's 100-PA resume small sample.  That's kind of what every defender's full season is.

You can draw useful conclusions from small samples, but there's a lot more art to it.  It's been a long while since I looked at how the variations on defensive stats are arrived at, to remember what I think is the most artful approach of teasing out information from small samples.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Because I like this point so much, I want to go even farther.  Players get 4 or 5 pitches per plate appearance to demonstrate their skill, by picking and choosing, and then giving the ball a ride if they can.  Usually defenders get to demonstrate their skill just one or two ways on a ball in play - go get the ball, maybe make a contested throw.

Fewer Total Chances than Plate Appearances. Fewer granular actions within.

We'd call a batter's 100-PA resume small sample.  That's kind of what every defender's full season is.

You can draw useful conclusions from small samples, but there's a lot more art to it.  It's been a long while since I looked at how the variations on defensive stats are arrived at, to remember what I think is the most artful approach of teasing out information from small samples.

My favorite demonstration of this impact is Torii Hunter's miraculous defensive rebound in UZR at his age 39 season: 

The guy probably could have played another decade!

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Because I like this point so much, I want to go even farther.  Players get 4 or 5 pitches per plate appearance to demonstrate their skill, by picking and choosing, and then giving the ball a ride if they can.  Usually defenders get to demonstrate their skill just one or two ways on a ball in play - go get the ball, maybe make a contested throw.

Except catchers, they handle the ball FAR more often on defense than on offense.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

My favorite demonstration of this impact is Torii Hunter's miraculous defensive rebound in UZR at his age 39 season: 

The guy probably could have played another decade!

RF at Target Field is about half the size of Comerica Park.

[RpR]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it’s such utter nonsense. Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances, and as you mention, most of those defensive chances are routine. Also, unless players start getting 10+ chances every game, it’s not logically possible for one player to be 3.6x better than another player defensively.
 

Evaluate offense. Then evaluate defense. Then evaluate which area is more important to your current roster/position/player/lineup needs.

Rationalize:

1.

attempt to explain or justify (one's own or another's behavior or attitude) with logical, plausible reasons, even if these are not true or appropriate.

 

That is what is happening here.

 

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

RF at Target Field is about half the size of Comerica Park.

Yeah, that's always been my argument. As far as glovework goes, the Twins shouldn't sweat that position as much as other clubs do. Knowing how to play that wall might be more important that a players range.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it’s such utter nonsense. Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances, and as you mention, most of those defensive chances are routine. Also, unless players start getting 10+ chances every game, it’s not logically possible for one player to be 3.6x better than another player defensively.

That would only be true if every chance had exactly the same run value. Missing an infield grounder usually turns into a single and at worst screws up a double play but missing a fly ball can lead to a double or a triple. Catching a ball over the CF fence turns a HR into an out - that's a savings over 1 run (value of HR + value of out) on one play. Robbing a HR has to be worth as much as hitting one or the ledger doesn't balance.

[Doctor Gast]

Keirmaier for 1 yr. is a very good option if the price is right. Twins will face much more RHPs than LHPs.  His defense will always play well. 

Pitching for hitting is a good recipe for the Twins as long it's not a deadline trade. 

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances,

They get a far more consistent number of plate appearances than defensive chances. Defensive chances vary wildly from year to year for players, but it's entirely possible that a guy gets more defensive chances than PAs in any given year. In 2017 Carlos Correa had 481 PAs. He had 642 combined put outs, assists, and errors (chances) that year. Last year he had 580 PAs to 450 chances. In 2021 it was 640 PAs to 578 chances. In 2023, batting champ Luis Arraez had 617 PAs and 615 defensive chances.

[Greglw3]

On 11/6/2023 at 9:34 AM, nicksaviking said:

If he's a rotational/bench guy, he'd be a great addition, and a way better fit than Michael Taylor.

He had a good season with the bat last year, but he's been an offensive liability for half a decade and he's going to be 34. I really don't want to do another season with these type of players filling out a starting spot. 

Also not surprised about getting pitching via trade and not free agency. But they need to aim high again, Gray/Lopez level, not Ryan/Ober/Paddock level.

Michael Wacha last two years 25-6 with ~ 3.25 ERA. Available as can be.

[Greglw3]

It would be really nice to have a GG winning, .265 hitter in CF compared to the cripplingly low BA of Taylor and Buxton lately. He stole 14 bases too. 

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That would only be true if every chance had exactly the same run value. Missing an infield grounder usually turns into a single and at worst screws up a double play but missing a fly ball can lead to a double or a triple. Catching a ball over the CF fence turns a HR into an out - that's a savings over 1 run (value of HR + value of out) on one play. Robbing a HR has to be worth as much as hitting one or the ledger doesn't balance.

I agree with what you are saying. The OUT is still the most important defensive stat on the planet.

If a CF robs a guy of a home run... not only is he... like you say... saving a run right there but he has also created an out that wouldn't have existed without an incredible play. That catch that very few can make just reduced the opposing team from having three outs to work with to two and that variance is huge.   

The Out trumps all defensive stats because it causes the biggest variance of any stat. Going from two outs to three is enormous... going from 3 outs to 4 is enormous. If an outfielder drops a can of corn... he has just given the opposing team 4 outs to work with... which not only produces a baserunner that shouldn't be on base but also gives the team an extra out to play with and therefore a larger opportunity to string some hits together and produce even more runs. I will never take defense for granted for that reason. A stolen out or an extra out is a huge variance that greatly increases or reduces the odds that an opposing team can use to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Defense is important... so don't let yahoo's like me minimize it.  

However... this is not entirely what we are talking about. We are talking about zone ratings. UZR, DRS are zone ratings that divides the field into zones and tracks how often balls are caught in those zones historically and then tries to quantify it. The overwhelming numbers of chances are routine chances in high catch percentage zones which means the actual plays that separate the men from the boys are few and far between to the point that one play every 2.5 games will determine what will end up being a large difference in expressed defensive value. 

Zone ratings also don't really factor in starting position. If the outfielder is shifted closer to a low percentage zone... the catch may be routine but he is going to get the low percentage catch zone benefit and look like a superstar. The reverse is also true if an outfielder is shifted closer to a low percentage catch zone and therefore can't get to a high percentage catch zone and the ball drops where players usually catch it... The outfielder is now penalized rather severely for a catch that is quite difficult to make due to positioning.  

For these reasons... I question the weighting of the non-routine catch in UZR and DRS because of the frequency or lack of frequency of non-routine with routine overwhelming. 

Since UZR and DRS are the primary defensive component that gets folded into WAR... I no longer take WAR seriously. 

For anyone to take WAR seriously you have to believe that Varsho with a .674 OPS was a better player than Vlad Jr. 

I stand here and tell everyone who likes to throw around WAR... If you want to trade me Vlad Jr for Varsho. I'll take that deal.      

 

[specialiststeve]

On 11/7/2023 at 12:10 PM, DJL44 said:

If Castro is the main CF then they don't have a utility player. Kiermaier would be replacing Nick Gordon on the current roster, not Castro.

Why  Martin would be promoted to that spot as I had said. Actually a good spot for Martin to get his feet wet. 

[cmoss84]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:09 AM, DJL44 said:

Kiermaier is better than Taylor on offense, too.

Is he, though? 

[stringer bell]

On 11/7/2023 at 12:09 PM, DJL44 said:

Kiermaier is better than Taylor on offense, too.

 

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Is he, though? 

Yes, according to stats. Both last year and in their careers, Kiermaier has a substantially higher OPS and OPS+. Taylor’s lifetime OPS+ is 83, while Kiermaier’s is 98. 

[cmoss84]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

 

Yes, according to stats. Both last year and in their careers, Kiermaier has a substantially higher OPS and OPS+. Taylor’s lifetime OPS+ is 83, while Kiermaier’s is 98. 

I'm not talking career...I mean right now. They are pretty even, with a higher average/less power from Kiermaier. I'd rather have a little extra pop. They can both swipe a bag when needed...pretty close there too. I don't think it is obvious who the better hitter is by any means...I think it's a coin toss. It comes down to contracts and if you want a left or right handed bat. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

I'm not talking career...I mean right now. They are pretty even, with a higher average/less power from Kiermaier. I'd rather have a little extra pop. They can both swipe a bag when needed...pretty close there too. I don't think it is obvious who the better hitter is by any means...I think it's a coin toss. It comes down to contracts and if you want a left or right handed bat. 

I don’t think their numbers were fairly even. MAT’s power surge came at the expense of OBP and strikeouts. Most Twins fans would rather see more on-base and more contact. Kiermaier had over 40 points higher OBP, while Taylor had a 20-points higher slugging percentage. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 11/6/2023 at 11:24 AM, stringer bell said:

More on Kiermaier: Both he and Taylor had around 400 plate appearances last year. Kiermaier had a better BA and OPS, Taylor hit way more homers. MAT struck out 44 more times in fewer PAs. Kiermaier is just under a year older than MAT and stole one more base than Taylor. 

Thanks for this offensive comparison. This is why the Twins need to sign Kiermaier rather than Taylor.  I hate those SO's. New major league record for most SO's by an offense. I really liked having Taylor in CF for DEFENSE ! Kiermaier will be excellent at DEFENSE also. Up the middle DEFENSE makes our pitching better. Plus he would make things happen when he gets on base.