Twins rumored to have interest in Kevin Kiermaier for CF

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

All of our assets - cash available and players - are fungible. We can trade for position players just as easily as we can sign them as FAs. Same with pitchers.  At the moment, this team is long position players, except for maybe CF, and definitely short a #2 starter.  A combination of raising cash by trading a high salary position player coupled with using available FA budget in order to get the pitcher we want within our overall budget constraints is certainly an option. 

We can have as big of a free agent budget as we want, but it still won't change the fact that by nature, every one of these free agent pitchers, outside of Yamamoto, is on the back side of their careers. 

[Sielk]

10 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Great points.  I do think if you're going to point out Lopez as a success (which it was), you've got to point out Mahle as an example of a failure.  So it's not without risk and this org is not so talent-rich that we can afford to miss on a lot of trades. But yeah the FA starting pitcher list isn't exactly inspiring this year.  

Fair enough, and that's why I wrote that such success may be uncommon.

But any time you want to bring in a great pitcher that requires a big investment. And any big investment also carries risk. Pick your poison. 

Just my opinion, but I'm not too thrilled about paying a 31-year-old $25 million for the next five or six years when there is a real chance that he might be terrible two years from now. And then we a) don't have that money available for extending someone like Royce Lewis and b) for paying a pitcher that is actually good by then. Or maybe I'm just not too convinced of the quality of this year's FA starting pitchers in general. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Sielk said:

Fair enough, and that's why I wrote that such success may be uncommon.

But any time you want to bring in a great pitcher that requires a big investment. And any big investment also carries risk. Pick your poison. 

Just my opinion, but I'm not too thrilled about paying a 31-year-old $25 million for the next five or six years when there is a real chance that he might be terrible two years from now. And then we a) don't have that money available for extending someone like Royce Lewis and b) for paying a pitcher that is actually good by then. Or maybe I'm just not too convinced of the quality of this year's FA starting pitchers in general. 

I think it's all very much a pick your poison thing, but trading for a guy you hope blossoms like Lopez is still a massive risk. And he's going to be making 21.5 a year after next year so it's not like he's cheap. And they gave him that deal at the end of April when he'd made 6 starts and had a 4.00 ERA. It's not like he was some sure fire guy who had a long track record of success.

Royce Lewis isn't FA eligible for another 5 years. A 5 or 6 year deal isn't stopping his extension, especially because both Correa and Buxton's money is off the books at that point as well. The Twins really don't have any extension concerns right now unless they're trying to do an early extension for big dollars on one of their young guys, and I doubt that's the plan. They have a 5 year window where they can spend on another big name guy since Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez money coming off the books, plus slightly increasing payrolls, will cover most, if not all, of the arb raises for their young guys before the big money deals come off the books.

[Sielk]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Royce Lewis isn't FA eligible for another 5 years. A 5 or 6 year deal isn't stopping his extension, especially because both Correa and Buxton's money is off the books at that point as well. The Twins really don't have any extension concerns right now unless they're trying to do an early extension for big dollars on one of their young guys, and I doubt that's the plan. They have a 5 year window where they can spend on another big name guy since Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez money coming off the books, plus slightly increasing payrolls, will cover most, if not all, of the arb raises for their young guys before the big money deals come off the books.

I didn't mean to say that handing out a big deal to a FA starter now would prevent them from extending Royce Lewis specifically, but rather: If you do that and it goes wrong, you have a lot of money tied up in a player that doesn't do much for you and that will prevent you from doing something that you like. A Lewis extension just being the example used here.

I'm not against spending big on a pitcher but I would prefer it being a pitcher I have confidence in to be able to become a true front-line starter, even if the results aren't quite there yet. (Young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff...) And I think there is a higher chance of getting such a starter in a trade. I feel rather lukewarm about the FA class.

Regarding FA pitchers, if the Twins want to enter the Yamamoto sweepstakes, by all means, do it. (I doubt they will.)  That would obviously carry huge risk, too, but I prefer that risk to the risk of betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher staying on his current level long enough to make the contract worthwhile. 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

And the team has plenty of money to spend.  I'm not sure I agree that risking prospects and money is somehow a safer strategy for the club than just risking money via a FA deal.    

I don’t know if the Twins have “plenty of money to spend” in light of their well-documented and much discussed TV revenue issues. Replacing Gray on the free agent market would be quite expensive with no guarantees. 
 

Prospect capital is valuable, but also many prospect’s don’t pan out. The Twins dealt a lot of prospects at the ‘22 deadline (didn’t work), so I don’t know how many are left to use in a trade. Otherwise, someone closer, but less of a blue chip (Larnach, Woods Richardson) could be used, I suppose. I think Polanco could offer value for a team that is trying to win now, same with Kepler. However any team that is trying to win now might be hesitant to deal pitching. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I know Bob Nightengale wrote this, so I definitely take it with a grain of salt.

That said, I wouldn't HATE the idea of preparing for Buxton (if healthy) to move to a corner outfield spot. Maybe that's even in 2024. The first part of that quote wrote how the Twins plan to use their position player depth to acquire pitching (also, water is wet) but if Buxton is moving to right field (for example) that makes sense. Longer term, Walker Jenkins will look really good in center field as well, right?

Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution.

I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, Sielk said:

I didn't mean to say that handing out a big deal to a FA starter now would prevent them from extending Royce Lewis specifically, but rather: If you do that and it goes wrong, you have a lot of money tied up in a player that doesn't do much for you and that will prevent you from doing something that you like. A Lewis extension just being the example used here.

I'm not against spending big on a pitcher but I would prefer it being a pitcher I have confidence in to be able to become a true front-line starter, even if the results aren't quite there yet. (Young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff...) And I think there is a higher chance of getting such a starter in a trade. I feel rather lukewarm about the FA class.

Regarding FA pitchers, if the Twins want to enter the Yamamoto sweepstakes, by all means, do it. (I doubt they will.)  That would obviously carry huge risk, too, but I prefer that risk to the risk of betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher staying on his current level long enough to make the contract worthwhile. 

For sure, but not spending the money now doesn't guarantee that you have someone worthy of that money in the future. There's risk on both sides of it. Assuming the ultimate goal is to win the World Series. Every move and non-move come with risk.

I think the cost for what you're talking about (young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff) is incredibly high in terms of trade cost. You are describing the most sought after commodity in baseball. You're either giving up Lee, Jenkins, ERod, or Lewis, or you're finding a team in win now mode that is overloaded with pitching and is willing to take lesser prospects along with established major leaguers. That's not an easy needle to thread. And I don't think the Twins offense is good enough as it is, so I'm rather lukewarm on the idea of trading from an already thin lineup to add to the pitching.

I'd also prefer Yamamoto, but not betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher is just as risky as betting on a whole bunch of mid-20s prospects becoming decent but not great pitchers. The Twins need a #1 or 2 starter moving forward. Risking $25 mil a year for 5 years is no more risky than trading a massive package for a young guy who isn't there yet and hoping that guy, or one of your in house guys, step up to become a #1 or 2. We know Nola, Montgomery, etc. can be those guys. We know they can start playoff games and dominate. We don't know that about any of their internal guys (outside Lopez), and simply hoping they can do it is not less risky than paying a FA to be able to maintain. Even if the FA only gets you 2 or 3 years, that's at least 2 or 3 more years that you can work to fill that role internally.

I don't expect a big money pitcher, but I think people overestimate the trade route and what that does to the team overall. Giving up another Luis Arraez type package is not easy for this offense to overcome.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.

I don't think they view veteran CF and Martin as either/or but as yes/and. They want both.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution.

I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.

Martin can't touch Kiermaier defensively. If Martin can't actually hit major league pitching his availability isn't all that important. And if you rely on him from the jump who's your Plan B if Martin can't cut it? Feels like a whole lot of risk.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh....go with Martin as the backup for Buxton (and Castro).....put your money elsewhere. (LF or RF or 1B are about it, really, as options, and CF, but there's only 1 good CF available).

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I don't think they view Kiermaier and Martin as either/or but as yes/and.

and Wallner and Kepler and Buxton and Castro?

[JD-TWINS]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin can't touch Kiermaier defensively. If Martin can't actually hit major league pitching his availability isn't all that important. And if you rely on him from the jump who's your Plan B if Martin can't cut it? Feels like a whole lot of risk.

Simple - Castro!

[arby58]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I'm not sure which one of the position players they have they consider "depth". To get an All-Star starting pitcher (Lopez ) they had to give up an All-Star position player (Arraez). They need to replace another All-Star starting pitcher in Sonny Gray. Do they have any All-Star position players left to trade besides Royce Lewis?

You're going to look for upside potential. Neither Lopez or Gray was an All-Star when they traded for them - although both were solid starting pitchers. Twins gave up a pitcher drafted in the high first round who threw 100 mph for Gray, which isn't chopped liver, but it isn't an All-Star position player either.IF you think Brooks Lee is ready and/or Polanco  can play most days (and both are switch hitters), I'd bet Julien, who is sort of a young Arraez, could bring you back a (possible future All Star) pitcher with upside.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Simple - Castro!

How confident are you that he can maintain a league average bat and isn't actually 2021 and 2022 Castro?

I'm not saying the Twins need to bend over backwards for Kiermaier by any means, but their other options are not exactly sure things, and there's plenty of risk relying on the Gordon, Martin, Castro, Buxton crowd.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You're going to look for upside potential. Neither Lopez or Gray was an All-Star when they traded for them - although both were solid starting pitchers. Twins gave up a pitcher drafted in the high first round who threw 100 mph for Gray, which isn't chopped liver, but it isn't an All-Star position player either.IF you think Brooks Lee is ready and/or Polanco  can play most days (and both are switch hitters), I'd bet Julien, who is sort of a young Arraez, could bring you back a (possible future All Star) pitcher with upside.

Sonny Gray was actually a 2 time All-Star when they traded for him. 

Side note to everyone: I've helped this along, but we've kind of gotten off track with a couple of these posts. This thread is about Kiermaier primarily, and CF secondarily. Let's get off the pitching topic. Sorry for my part in leading us off track here, but let's get it back to the topic of the thread. Thanks.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin can't touch Kiermaier defensively. If Martin can't actually hit major league pitching his availability isn't all that important. And if you rely on him from the jump who's your Plan B if Martin can't cut it? Feels like a whole lot of risk.

Martin did better at St. Paul second half of the year, but a AAA OPS under .800 doesn't scream ready for MLB. I wouldn't bet on him as the immediate answer - probably needs more time in St. Paul. Castro has looked decent in CF, although he significantly over-achieved his career averages last year. That could just be the fact that he's relatively young. I suppose between the three of them (including Buxton), you'd hope at least one pans out.

[JD-TWINS]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin can't touch Kiermaier defensively. If Martin can't actually hit major league pitching his availability isn't all that important. And if you rely on him from the jump who's your Plan B if Martin can't cut it? Feels like a whole lot of risk.

I’m trying to weigh the risk of spending on a FA ……with probable health risks …….v. a guy already in the system and the risk he can’t hit well enough. Can always play somebody else & move him back down if not successful but signing a guy for $8M we could spend on an arm I don’t like. Certainly don’t think Martin is Kiermaier’s level defensively but I do think he’s adequate.

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Sonny Gray was actually a 2 time All-Star when they traded for him. 

The operative phrase being 'when they traded for him.' He was two years removed from being an All-Star, and the year before they traded for him he went 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA. Nobody was calling him an All-Star that year.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Martin did better at St. Paul second half of the year, but a AAA OPS under .800 doesn't scream ready for MLB. I wouldn't bet on him as the immediate answer - probably needs more time in St. Paul. Castro has looked decent in CF, although he significantly over-achieved his career averages last year. That could just be the fact that he's relatively young. I suppose between the three of them (including Buxton), you'd hope at least one pans out.

Definitely not the worst laid plan we've ever seen the Twins come up with. I wouldn't be flipping tables in anger if they go with that move, but there's certainly risk in it.

We're at the "hope" stage of the baseball calendar. It's intesified even more than usual after we saw Lewis, Julien, and Wallner have so much success this last season. Not all of these young guys are going to succeed. Lewis, Julien, and Wallner aren't even established guys yet as the 2nd year always brings adjustments and not every guy can make them. Going into 2024 relying on Buxton health, and a whole bunch of young guys establishing themselves is a very risky proposition for a team looking to take a step forward in the playoffs, not backwards. They won 87 games, not 107. I'd like to see some more veterans brought in even if it makes people mad that the young guys have to wait for their shots a little longer.

[Sielk]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure, but not spending the money now doesn't guarantee that you have someone worthy of that money in the future. There's risk on both sides of it. Assuming the ultimate goal is to win the World Series. Every move and non-move come with risk.

I think the cost for what you're talking about (young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff) is incredibly high in terms of trade cost. You are describing the most sought after commodity in baseball. You're either giving up Lee, Jenkins, ERod, or Lewis, or you're finding a team in win now mode that is overloaded with pitching and is willing to take lesser prospects along with established major leaguers. That's not an easy needle to thread. And I don't think the Twins offense is good enough as it is, so I'm rather lukewarm on the idea of trading from an already thin lineup to add to the pitching.

I'd also prefer Yamamoto, but not betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher is just as risky as betting on a whole bunch of mid-20s prospects becoming decent but not great pitchers. The Twins need a #1 or 2 starter moving forward. Risking $25 mil a year for 5 years is no more risky than trading a massive package for a young guy who isn't there yet and hoping that guy, or one of your in house guys, step up to become a #1 or 2. We know Nola, Montgomery, etc. can be those guys. We know they can start playoff games and dominate. We don't know that about any of their internal guys (outside Lopez), and simply hoping they can do it is not less risky than paying a FA to be able to maintain. Even if the FA only gets you 2 or 3 years, that's at least 2 or 3 more years that you can work to fill that role internally.

I don't expect a big money pitcher, but I think people overestimate the trade route and what that does to the team overall. Giving up another Luis Arraez type package is not easy for this offense to overcome.

I feel like we're stuck with a difference of opinions. 

But I hear your points. Further weakening the offense concerns me, too. And maybe I am a little biased right now because the López trade worked out well.

In past years, I have definitely often shared your opinion that a FA is preferable to spending valuable assets on a trade. My problem this year is mainly that aside from Yamamoto, there simply isn't a pitcher where I say to myself: "Yes, that's a guy I want to spend a ton of money on." And the Twins won't be able to hand out a contract like this every offseason, so I want it to be the right player.

Now, the Twins might disagree with me about which player is "the right player". (And they're way smarter than me, be glad that I'm not the GM 😅) But these are just my two cents. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How confident are you that he can maintain a league average bat and isn't actually 2021 and 2022 Castro?

I'm not saying the Twins need to bend over backwards for Kiermaier by any means, but their other options are not exactly sure things, and there's plenty of risk relying on the Gordon, Martin, Castro, Buxton crowd.

Castro OR Martin succeeding v. Keirmaier staying healthy & succeeding…………I like the cost and probability blended risk of the former.

If we’re signing a FA for CF with a good glove and decent health history to reduce risk of the young guys, Taylor has to get serious consideration.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m trying to weigh the risk of spending on a FA ……with probable health risks …….v. a guy already in the system and the risk he can’t hit well enough. Can always play somebody else & move him back down if not successful but signing a guy for $8M we could spend on an arm I don’t like. Certainly don’t think Martin is Kiermaier’s level defensively but I do think he’s adequate.

Yeah, we just differ on what the scales look like in weighing that risk. Martin may be adequate defensively while completely inadequate offensively. And he's got his own injury history. He missed time in 2022 and only played 67 games in '23. I assume you're planning to start Martin because you think he'd be the best option "already in the system," so "can always play somebody else" isn't an encouraging phrase when we're hoping to see the team improve and not take a step back. I think Martin is a very reasonable 1st OF option in AAA to start the year. But, in my opinion, he's a way bigger risk as your primary MLB CFer to start '24 than Kiermaier.

[TopGunn#22]

Despite his age, Kiermaier still won a Gold Glove this year.  In fact, if you think Buxton's a great CF (when healthy) he's never been the equal to Kiermaier.  But as FireDanGladden guy said, it all depends on what KK would cost.  If it's reasonable I could be on board.  I've been saying Taylor will never come close to 20 HR's for the rest of his career.  I like that KK doesn't strike out nearly as much and has equal speed and base stealing ability to Taylor.  I could live with a KK platoon with Castro and maybe Martin.

I disagree with the notion that the only way to improve our pitching is through a trade.  There are some decent "value" free agent possibilities.  Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez, Trevor Bauer.  But as I said in another thread, EVERYBODY is going to be looking for pitching this off season.  Many teams are looking for "several" rotation pieces.   So even "value" signings could turn out to be pretty pricey.  I also disagree with the idea that 29-31 year old pitchers are past their prime.  I'd offer a contract that takes them through age 35 but not beyond.  Sonny Gray is 33, but I'm not giving him a 5 or 6 year deal at that age.

But if you trade Polanco ($10.5 million), Farmer ($6.6 million) and Theilbar ($3.00 million) that's $20 million saved that can be used on a FA starting pitcher or to acquire a SP that while costly, would be a #1 SP (even with Lopez on the staff) for the Twins.  That kind of trade acquisition should be someone like 29 year old Corbin Burnes.    

[Cory Engelhardt]

52 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution.

I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.

Agreed, and maybe if they don't trade him Emmanuel Rodriguez could figure into these plans sooner too, But for 2024, maybe it's Buxton? Maybe it's Austin Martin/DeShawn Kiersey (with Buxton in a corner?) Maybe it's a free agent? Hard to say.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we just differ on what the scales look like in weighing that risk. Martin may be adequate defensively while completely inadequate offensively. And he's got his own injury history. He missed time in 2022 and only played 67 games in '23. I assume you're planning to start Martin because you think he'd be the best option "already in the system," so "can always play somebody else" isn't an encouraging phrase when we're hoping to see the team improve and not take a step back. I think Martin is a very reasonable 1st OF option in AAA to start the year. But, in my opinion, he's a way bigger risk as your primary MLB CFer to start '24 than Kiermaier.

I’m all about bird in the hand - not a big rah rah, let’s bring up guys from AAA to see what they can do sort. I have zero allegiance to Martin. I know he’s quick - decent baserunner - OK bat, but problems hitting in summer of ‘22. Also, arm problems well into ‘23. …….. I just don’t like another left handed bat with fair amount of cost that isn’t durable enough to get me very excited to sign.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m all about bird in the hand - not a big rah rah, let’s bring up guys from AAA to see what they can do sort. I have zero allegiance to Martin. I know he’s quick - decent baserunner - OK bat, but problems hitting in summer of ‘22. Also, arm problems well into ‘23. …….. I just don’t like another left handed bat with fair amount of cost that isn’t durable enough to get me very excited to sign.

Totally fair. Kiermaier is not an exciting sign at all. But I'd like our chances of winning more games better with him in CF on opening day than any of their internal options not named Buxton. And I'm not so worried about his cost because, while I wish they'd go sign a veteran frontline starter (Yamamoto and Nola being my 2 favorite options) I don't expect them to do that at all. And I think they have super reasonable ways to open more money if it's really needed (Farmer, Polanco, Kepler moves being the most obvious). Signing KK won't have me staking out my spot on the WS parade route, but I think he wins you more games than a Martin/Castro tag team to start the year which makes him an intriguing option while not being someone I'm jumping to sign today.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How confident are you that he can maintain a league average bat and isn't actually 2021 and 2022 Castro?

I'm not saying the Twins need to bend over backwards for Kiermaier by any means, but their other options are not exactly sure things, and there's plenty of risk relying on the Gordon, Martin, Castro, Buxton crowd.

I don’t see why Kiermaier is a safer bat than Castro. They both woke up last year, but Kiermaier hadn’t done much offensively since 2017 and seven years older.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don’t see why Kiermaier is a safer bat than Castro. They both woke up last year, but Kiermaier hadn’t done much offensively since 2017 and seven years older.

But Kiermaier is an elite defender in CF while Castro isn't. Kiermaier is a safer player, in my opinion.

[Aerodeliria]

Frankly, I rather try for Nootbar who hits lefties and righties at about the same clip and who is a very good defender that can play every day.

[darin617]

Can someone please explain War to me like I'm 12. 

Michael A Taylor put up a 1.9 War and KK put up a 3.9 War.  To me it looks like Taylor had the better year stat wise. Unless most of that War for KK is from defense which is even more confusing...