How the Twins' Top 30 Prospects from 2020 Panned Out in 2023

[Theodore Tollefson]

It may be hard for some people to believe it’s only been three years since 2020. The events of that year feel like a lifetime ago. For the Twins top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects from that year, it was a year of lost opportunity. 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports

The lost opportunity of 2020 was no prospect's fault. Minor-leaguers, like many others around the world, were dealt a bad hand; in some cases, at very costly times in their development.

Some did get MLB playing time such as Ryan Jeffers who played in his first 26 MLB games in the shortened 60-game season. Others have yet to find the crack on an active roster after missing out on an entire professional season.

Enough time has now passed and three full seasons of Major and Minor League Baseball have been completed. So where did each of the Twins' top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, finish their 2023 seasons? Let’s find out.

On active rosters for the end of 2023

1. Royce Lewis
At long last, Lewis arrived at the majors full-time, and he did not disappoint. He was still limited to 58 games, returning on Memorial Day and facing strained hamstring that sidelined him from July to mid-August. Lewis returned as the best power hitter with the bases loaded any rookie has ever been.

He’s quickly become known as Mr. Grand Slam, per teammate Chris Paddack. He carried the team on his back in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against Toronto, hitting the only two home runs the team needed to win.

Lewis has finally arrived and exceeded the expectations that were put on him when he was drafted number one overall in 2017. The next mountain for this future star to climb over is remaining healthy for at least 75% of the season. If he can repeat the same level of success he had in the majors this year, then he will be a force to reckon with in 2024.

2. Alex Kirilloff
Kirilloff didn't make it through the playoffs but he finished the regular season healthy. The injuries still derailed Kirilloff even as he reached a career-high of 88 games played in 2023. 

His best stretch of the season came from Memorial Day weekend until his shoulder injury sidelined him in Kansas City at the end of July, performing as one of the Twins' best hitters at the time.

The unfortunate side with Kirilloff is his inescapability of the injury bug, but good news came through when doctors found no tear in his labrum surgery. As of now, he is projected to be fully healthy for spring training, which could lead to the first-ever fully healthy season of his MLB career. 

3. Trevor Larnach
Larnach had an up-and-down season both literally and figuratively. He split more time between the Twins active roster and St. Paul Saints than any other player. 

His time in St. Paul showed more flourishment than his time in the majors as he posted a .271/.384/.504 triple slash with a .888 OPS across 323 plate appearances with the Saints. But with the Twins, it was a .213/.311/.415 triple slash with a .727 OPS across 212 plate appearances. 

While it isn’t quite clear if Larnach will remain a Twin this offseason, his playing time both in the majors and minors over the last few seasons has landed him as a 4th outfielder with this team. Matt Wallner has surpassed him in the pecking order of Twins corner outfielders and Larnach turns 27 in February. 

If he wants to finally land a full-time role before he’s out of his prime age, he may have a better chance of that with a different team than the Twins. 

5. Jhoan Duran
Duran looked a little more human in 2023 than his lights-out rookie season last year. Despite that, he was still the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball topping out the fastest pitch thrown in 2023 at 104.8 MPH. 

Even with five blown saves on the season and an ERA that jumped from 1.86 in 2022 to 2.45 in 2023, Duran was the man he’s lived up to be out of the bullpen when it mattered the most in the postseason. 

The sky will continue to be the only limit for Duran in 2024. Twins fans will continue to hope the flamethrowing 26-year-old will continue on his path as one of the best relievers this franchise has ever seen. 

6. Ryan Jeffers
The catcher's 2022 season pushed him into a backup role, but 2023 saw him improve from those struggles and take over the Twins' starting role in the postseason. With his numbers improving drastically from a .648 OPS in 2022 to .858 OPS in 2023, Jeffers cemented himself as the best right-handed hitting catcher in baseball this year.

What’s most impressive, and is due credit to his battery-mate behind the plate, Christian Vazquez, is that both these men were healthy all season. And for the first time in a long time, the Twins had to only use two catchers on the active roster all year. 

The next hurdle for Jeffers is the amount of games played. He still has yet to reach 100 games played in a season in his career, falling just four short of the benchmark this year. However, if the Twins go through with the possibility of trading Vazquez to save on the payroll a bit, there will be nothing to stop him from 100 games in 2024.

12. Brent Rooker
The Oakland Athletics did not have many bright spots in a depressing 2023 season. Fortunately, former Twin Brent Rooker was one of those bright spots. 

Rooker started off the year hot in April, leading the American League with a 1.245 OPS over 22 games. While he cooled off over the next two months, he was still rewarded with the lone all-star selection from the A’s this season. Rooker returned to performing at his All-Star level from April in the final months of the season, reaching the 30 home run mark with a .817 OPS on the season and playing in 137 games.

Rooker will likely remain on the Athletics roster as their top power hitter to start 2024. Unless his breakout 2023 season has enticed a team enough to trade for him and bring him to a team that will be in a better place to contend for the 2024 postseason. 

13. Akil Baddoo
Baddoo kept himself on the Tigers' active roster for most of 2023 playing in 112 games for the runner-up in the American League Central. But Baddoo has not been able to recapture the magic he showed on the diamond during the first half of his rookie year. 

Baddoo has worked himself into the 4th outfielder role with the Tigers having only 357 plate appearances across those 112 games. His triple slash wasn’t glamorous by any means as he hit .218/.310/.372 with a .682 OPS. 

He is still a season away from arbitration eligibility and won’t turn 26 until August 16. Time is still favorable for Baddoo to show the success he had when he burst into the majors, but that will also be dependent on who else finds playing time in the Tigers outfield for 2024.  

14. Matt Wallner
The Forest Lake native fulfilled expectations that were put to him during his brief call-up in 2022. The Twins' reigning Minor League Player of the Year exceeded his rookie status in 2023 and didn’t disappoint in the 76 games he played in. 

On top of a .249/.370/.507 triple slash and .877 OPS, Wallner quickly became one of the best throwing arms in the outfield per Baseball Savant landing, himself in the 100th percentile in arm strength. Wallner has forged himself into a power-hitting, laser pointer in the outfield that can throw almost any runner out, and it’s a valuable commodity for where the Twins start their outfield in 2024. 

As fellow Forest Lake native and avid Twins fan Aaron Rupar has said, “Wallner has done some of the coolest things as anyone raised in that town.” Seventy-six games in 2023 was only a sampling of what he can hopefully do in a full season’s worth of games in 2024. 

25. Jorge Alcala
2023 looked to be a bounce-back year at the start for Alcala, who missed the majority of last year due to injury. The season did not turn out as many hoped for him, as he once again was limited to 11 games on the year because of injuries.

On top of that, he looked rather dreadful across those 11 relief appearances posting a 6.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and walked 10 batters in 17.1 innings. He was left off the postseason roster despite seemingly having recovered from injury.

Alcala enters his first year of arbitration this offseason. The Twins may consider cutting him loose due to his bad health and poor performance over the last two years. Alcala will be entering his age 28 season, and could still bounce back. Whether that’s in Minnesota or elsewhere remains to be seen. 

28. Ben Rortvedt
Rortvedt left the Twins alongside Josh Donaldson and Twin-for-a-day Isaiah Kiner-Falefa as a part of the salary dump of Donaldson to New York for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. 

Rortvedt was either hurt or in the minors all of 2022, but that finally changed in 2023 as he made his Yankee debut on May 20 this year. Rortvedt was up and down all season with the Yankees and was far from glamorous. He only had a .118 batting average in 79 plate appearances across 32 games. 

Of course, his calling card is his defense, and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He'll keep working to carve out a niche as a quality backup.

30. Josh Winder
After making 11 starts in the majors in 2022, Josh Winder converted into a full-time reliever with the Twins in 2023. Winder’s season had limitations due to injury but appeared in 40 games out of the bullpen between the majors and minors.

Winder’s days as a starter are likely over, but he’s still a valuable asset to be in the Twins bullpen as the front office formulates what it’ll look like in 2024. Especially if he can maintain his role as a long reliever. 

Injured most of season

11. Matt Canterino
Unlike the above players, Canterino did not play in the majors this season. In fact, he did not pitch at all as he recovered from a late-season Tommy John surgery he underwent in August of 2022. 

Given he is the only player from the Twins' Top 30 prospect list in 2020 to miss the entire 2023 season due to injury, he falls into this category for simplicity's sake. 

Before his Tommy John surgery in 2022, Canterino made a name for himself at Double-A Wichita. He had a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings across 11 games and was talked about as potential bullpen reinforcement for the end of the Twins 2022 season. 

The front office did add him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. There have been no indications he will lose that spot this off-season which could make him a sleeper name to break into the Twins bullpen next spring training. 

17. Nick Gordon
Gordon started the season off cold, but he may have been cursed the same day teammate Kyle Farmer was drilled in the jaw. He only accumulated six hits across 21 games from April 12th to May 9th and just as he seemed to recover from a bad month at the plate, he broke his tibia in a game against the Dodgers on May 17th.

The fracture left Gordon on the injured list for the remainder of the season, with other players such as Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Willi Castro stepping up in roles he often filled in 2022. 

Now, Gordon’s future with the Twins is up in the air. The Twins may not re-sign him through arbitration this season, and it’s more likely than not he won’t be a part of the team in 2024. 

22. Jose Miranda
It’s easy to say Miranda had the most disappointing 2023 season out of any Twin. The expectations were high coming off a breakout rookie season, but he fell short of them from the start. 

A shoulder injury in spring training kept him from playing in the World Baseball Classic, but the effects of that injury lingered into the start of the season. Miranda’s power at the plate was all but zapped away as he was homerless through the first 24 games of the season, before finally getting his first two of the year against the Yankees on April 26th in a 12-6 loss. 

That two-homer game was the high point of his season as he continued to decline in his performance at the plate, never having his batting average above .240 from that day on. Miranda was optioned down to St. Paul to fix his swing on May 10, and even after Lewis pulled his hamstring and landed on the IL, Miranda wouldn’t last more than five games before reinjuring his shoulder and effectively ending his season. 

Miranda’s future role with the Twins has more questions than answers. He’s fallen behind Lewis at third base on the depth chart, but could still work as the right-handed hitting side of a first base platoon with Kirilloff. 

Played in 2023, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball

4. Jordan Balazovic
Balazovic’s longevity with the Twins was tittering on the edge to start the 2023 season. Between a spring training scuffle that left him with a broken jaw, and a bullpen role with the Saints that wasn’t faring much better than his 2022 struggles, Balazovic looked as though he might be let go by the team in mid-June.

Then the bullpen had too many injuries to count and he was the last man available in the pecking order of the 40-man roster options. His call-up to the majors turned out to be his saving grace.

Balazovic didn’t give up a run in 5 innings over his first three career appearances. He had an even more impressive stretch that followed into July over 12 relief appearances, with only one outing in that stretch where he surrendered more than one run. But he ended the year on a sour note and his future with the organization is very much in doubt.

7. Keoni Cavaco
The Twins top draft pick from 2019 missed out on what would've been his first pro season in 2020 and never seemed to recover. He hasn't produced at any level since.

Cavaco spent the majority of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He barely hit above the Mendoza line with his batting average at .203 and had an OPS of .574 across 238 plate appearances in 63 games. 

Cavaco will not be turning 23 until June 2, 2024, but the young infielder will be growing old for the age group at High A. He needs emerge and break out in a big way.

9. Blayne Enlow
Enlow spent the first two months of the season at Double A Wichita and had a dominant stretch posting a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings in 10 starts. Those numbers earned him a call-up to the St. Paul Saints in mid-June, and the effects of Triple-A hitting showed against his stuff.

Enlow had a 7.94 ERA in 45.1 innings across 15 outings as a starter and reliever for the Saints. His struggles during his first month and a half with the Saints were bad enough to keep his numbers inflated as he improved over the last two months of the season with the Saints. 

Enlow still has a good opportunity to turn himself around in the early months of the 2024 season with St. Paul to make himself available as a bullpen call-up option to make his MLB debut with the Twins in 2024. 

15. Gilberto Celestino
Celestino may have spent a few days on the Twins active roster in 2023, but he never appeared in a game. All of his playing time came in St. Paul this year, and even that was limited to 59 games. 

His numbers at the plate weren’t as eye-popping as his defense still proved to be. Celestino posted a .244/.385/.386 triple slash with a .771 OPS in 245 plate appearances.

The rushed development of Celestino during the center fielder shortage of 2021 proved costly to his hitting abilities. And with Castro filling in as the primary backup centerfielder to Michael A. Taylor, his role with the team doesn’t seem to be necessary anymore going into 2024. 

16. Edwar Colina
Colina made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2020 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since then. He was in the Rangers organization for all of 2023 pitching at Triple-A Round Rock.

This marked his first season in professional baseball since his 2023 debut, and he struggled a bit after a two-year absence. Colina had a 4.65 ERA in 31 innings across 26 relief appearances. His most concerning aspect of his return was lack of command as he had 20 walks to 30 strikeouts adding up to a 1.5 K to BB ratio. 

Colina is in the Venezuelan League this Winter to refine his command and hope for a better outcome in 2024. 

18. Travis Blankenhorn
Blankenhorn has become a journeyman minor leaguer since the Twins released him in early 2021. 

This season was spent in the Nationals organization for Blankenhorn and he didn’t disappoint for the Rochester Red Wings posting a .262/.360/.517 triple slash and .877 OPS in 455 plate appearances across 108 games with them.

He earned himself a roster expansion call-up in September and played in 10 games with the Nats, but only had a .161 batting average in 37 plate appearances. 

19. Cole Sands
Sands's greatest achievement in 2023 may have been the amount of MLB service time accumulated compared to amount of pitches thrown with the Twins. 

Sands pitched a total of 34 games between the Saints and Twins in 2023. His 19 games with the Saints were some of the most impressive from any pitcher on their roster in 2023 as he posted a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings of work. His numbers in his 15 games with the Twins weren’t exactly the same, but they still were an improvement from 2022 as he had a 3.74 ERA in 21.2 innings of work with Minnesota this year.

20. Will Holland
Holland has never had a full season of success in the minor leagues since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Twins. 2023 played out similarly to other seasons. 

He spent the whole season at Wichita and played in 101 games, but his offensive output was poor as he had a .197/.300/.306 with a .606 OPS. Holland has defensive versatility to play multiple positions on the field, but his offensive output at Double-A doesn’t show any signs of a promotion to Triple-A anytime soon. 

21. Misael Urbina
Urbina had his first full season up at High A but his performance there wasn’t all too impressive. Across 102 games, Urbina had a .180/.289/.282 triple slash with a .571 OPS across 412 plate appearances. 

Urbina’s development, like many others, saw drawbacks from the lost 2020 minor league season, and that still carried over into 2023 as he reached his highest level of pro ball yet. Urbina turns 22 in April next year with time still on his side but that window is closing on what he can do at higher levels if he doesn’t have a massive turnaround. 

24. Yunior Severino
No other minor leaguer hit more home runs across all levels in 2023 than Yunior Severino. His 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A powered him to an OPS just short of .900, at .898 on the season. 

Severino still isn’t a top-notch defensive player as he continued to shuffle around the infield playing all positions but shortstop. With the lack of a defensive home and being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, there’s no certainty that he’ll remain in the organization for 2024. 

26. Emmanuel Rodriguez
He was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but COVID-19 delayed his first professional season until 2021. In 2023 Rodriguez felt some of the highest highs and lowest lows of his pro career so far. 

He enjoyed a sky-high walk rate and flashed big power while continuing to play an exceptional center field. At the same time, he continued striking out at a high rate with a lot of swing and miss in his game.

Outside of Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez is the most exciting prospect in the Twins system. A strong performance in the Midwest League Championship Series has set him up well to start his 2024 season at Double-A Wichita. 

29. Chris Vallimont
Chirs Vallimont was claimed off waivers from the Twins by the Orioles in May of 2022. Over a year later, he made his MLB debut with the Birds on July 3. But that sole relief appearance where he only faced three batters would be his only action in the majors this year.

Vallimont's contract was purchased by the Cleveland Guardians just three days later. He spent the remainder of the 2023 season at Triple-A Columbus throwing out of the Clippers bullpen. In 16 outings, he had an unimpressive 6.52 ERA in 29 innings. 

Out of professional baseball entirely 

8. Wander Javier
Javier once looked to be the next coming of Jorge Polanco, but that all dissipated as his performance stagnated and failed to elevate over several seasons. 

Javier had a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres in spring training but decided to retire from the game in March before the season even began. 

10. Lewis Thorpe
Thorpe threw his last pitch in the Twins organization on a cold Saturday afternoon on April 16th, 2022. During a comeback attempt with Independent League Kansas City Monarchs, he posted a 4.96 ERA in 81.2 innings across 16 starts, Thorpe then decided to return to his home country of Australia.

The Australian Baseball League begins its 2023-24 season on November 16th, and Thorpe has found himself on the minor-league roster of his hometown Melbourne Aces. While his career in the majors may be over, he looks to continue it in the land down under. 

23. Dakota Chalmers
Chalmers spent time between the Dodgers organization and Independent Baseball in 2022. But his name was nowhere to be found in pro ball for the entire 2023 season. 

27. Gabriel Maciel
Maciel spent his 2022 season with the Oakland A’s High A affiliate. He elected free agency at season’s end and hasn’t been heard from since. 

Totals: 

• 11 players on Active MLB rosters
• 3 players who could be on Active Rosters but are hurt
• 13 players who are in the Minors, Japan, or Indy Ball
• 4 players completely out of baseball

The outcome from these top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects in 2020 just three years later is a strong showing for the franchise. One-third of the players ended their seasons in the majors, and half of them could find realistically themselves there in 2024. 

What’s most impressive is that the top six players (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers), all had some form of consistent playing time with the Twins this season. Rarely does a team’s former top five or six prospects earn those opportunities all at the same time, and all have a chance to do so again in 2024. 

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[Sielk]

I really enjoyed reading this. As fans we spend so much time obsessing over prospect rankings or writing down our own but rarely do we look back to see how everything turned out.

I think we often tend to overvalue the average outcome of a prospect. What we got out of this list isn't bad at all: our current no. 3 prospect (and top 50 globally), a starting catcher, a good corner outfielder in Wallner, one of the best closers in the game and a SS/3B that looks like a superstar, plus a few other players who might still prove to be valuable contributors.

And, by the way, let's not forget about Bailey Ober and Édouard Julien who didn't even crack the top 30 list in 2020 but are now as good and as important as anyone that was on it.

[Fatbat]

Thats a cool look back. Seems so long ago!!  We really do have a nice farm system as it looks like we will continue to produce major leaguers. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Theo Tollefson said:

It may be hard for some people to believe it’s only been three years since 2020.

I was skeptical at first but I looked deeper into this and the math checks out. 

Great to see a summary like this, all in one place.

[DocBauer]

That was a fun look back! Thanks!

Fantastic that so many of that top 30 have already arrived, and mostly contributed, and with a bright future for most as well. And still a nice group just about ready to contribute.

Wander Javier is the most disappointing name on that list. I think most believed he was going to be a star. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Sielk said:

And, by the way, let's not forget about Bailey Ober and Édouard Julien who didn't even crack the top 30 list in 2020

Varland, Steer, Headrick, Funderburk, Wade Jr., Moran

Gipson-Long had a cup of coffee with Detroit this year and Legumina brought us Farmer.

[gman]

Twins scouting department and player development has been much better than they are given credit for.

[Shaitan]

Nice article.

I would have preferred to read it in a 1-30 order instead of broken into categories, but that's just me. I enjoyed it as it is too.

[mikelink45]

This was a good read.  1,6,14 look really good - that is 10%.  Rooker and Baddoo on other teams did not bring us any talent - those are losses.  Alcala looks lost, Larnach seems to have plateaued at 4th OF and Winder looks like a journeyman pitcher.  With Rortvedt a yankee and not producing these 5 are disappointing that is 16% not real contributors.

Then there is the seemingly always injured - Kiriloff and Canterino.  I hope that they turn it around, but need proof.

Played in 2023, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball 

Ten of these 12 do not look promising for the home team - that is 33% misses.  We still have two who could be contributors to the Twins.  

And then there are four officially done.

We have done alright, but really have to hitch our hopes on Lewis as the all-star to make this an A+ prospect list. 

[Fatbat]

@mikelink45 the real win is with the guys that didn’t make the top 30 but will make a contribution n MLB over the next 5 years. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Ten of these 12 do not look promising for the home team - that is 33% misses. 

66% success rate of your top 30 prospects is probably much higher than the base rate across baseball.

[dogsday]

14 hours ago, DJL44 said:

66% success rate of your top 30 prospects is probably much higher than the base rate across baseball.

I wonder if that's true of prospect lists. For a list that is heavy on hopes and dreams for players with little to no professional experience (which is more about drafting and acquisition), probably true . But for a prospect list that gives weight to performance at various levels of the minors, a 66% success rate may be typical???? It would be interesting and informative to know.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dogsday said:

I wonder if that's true of prospect lists. For a list that is heavy on hopes and dreams for players with little to no professional experience (which is more about drafting and acquisition), probably true . But for a prospect list that gives weight to performance at various levels of the minors, a 66% success rate may be typical???? It would be interesting and informative to know.

Baseball America said 70% of prospects in the top 100 list fail. On average, that's the top 3 prospects for any team. The failure rate should be higher for prospects outside of the top 5 for each team. The articles below set line for success as a regular contributor and see the same results. 77% of pitchers failed by those standards. The Twins used to have an 80% bust rate for their top 100 prospects.

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review

Updating the study on the success and failure rates of top prospects - Royals Review

 

[DJL44]

Twins who would meet the "success" criteria in the Royals Review articles

Yes: Lewis, Duran, Jeffers, Rooker

Borderline: Kiriloff, Baddoo, Wallner

There's also a few "too soon to tell".

[Linus]

It’s also important to remember the list includes players from multiple drafts. For example Kiriloff was drafted by the old FO. It’s natural that only the best of each draft will comprise a top 30 list. 

[jmlease1]

Injuries have certainly hampered a number of players on the 2020 top 30 list. That's a factor you really can't account for when drafting players and it's hard to put too much blame on the development staff if a player hasn't gotten there because of injury.

They've done a pretty good job graduating players to to MLB overall, I'd say even if they haven't necessarily found the all-star quality players in this group (Duran is there, even if he didn't get picked, and Lewis certainly has the quality if he can stay on the field) but there are still others that could get there in time. But they've moved quite a few guys into being contributors at the MLB level with the franchise.

I would discount Rooker's "emergence" a little; he finished the season with solid offensive stats, but he's a real negative as a defensive player and sure looks like the definition of a "good stats, bad team" player. Overall the Twins have also done a pretty good job in picking who they've moved on from: Baddoo wouldn't have a role on this team, and I doubt Wade would either. Superficially Rooker looks like a fit as a RH bat but he couldn't stick with either SD or KC last season and had his "big" season on a truly awful team and is a rotten defender. Between injury and awful hitting Rortvedt hasn't been able to stick and carve out a real MLB role. None of the MLB guys that the Twins either moved on from or got Rule 5'd have really come back to haunt them.

[Jeff K]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

66% success rate of your top 30 prospects is probably much higher than the base rate across baseball.

Interesting observation.  I wonder if that data is available.