Both World Series Teams Have This in Common…

[Vanimal46]

Both lost 100+ games in 2021. Amazing turnaround for both organizations. 

[tony&rodney]

Pretty exciting to have two teams that have worked so hard to turn around their records in just two years playing in the World Series.

The playoffs this year have shown how important getting  a place at the table can be for any team. When someone has desires that the Twins need to do much more than just win the AL Central, it is good to remember that a historically great team like Atlanta can lose in their first round of games. Baseball has such a small difference between most teams that whomever peaks or gets hot has a shot at reaching the World Series. Arizona has the third worst record of any team to ever make it to the World Series. The competition is fierce in the playoffs and while some teams seem to ooze talent and have superior tough players, the reality is that any team can go on a run. Just a month or so ago, both Texas and Arizona looked very beatable to a number of teams. The Twins swept the Diamondbacks and defeated the Rangers in 5 out of 7 games. Now the World Series features two exciting teams who have bounced back from their failures of two years past. It could be a really fun series to watch.

[BH67]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Just a month or so ago, both Texas and Arizona looked very beatable to a number of teams. The Twins swept the Diamondbacks and defeated the Rangers in 5 out of 7 games.

Arizona dropped 25 of 32 games in a stretch of July and August. Texas dropped 16 of 20 in August and September, then swept Toronto, and then were swept by...Cleveland.

If baseball is so random in achieving ultimate success, I'd rather win on instinct than sabermetrics. The former is more fun to watch.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, BH67 said:

If baseball is so random in achieving ultimate success, I'd rather win on instinct than sabermetrics. The former is more fun to watch.

Baseball isn't random. The teams that survive a 162 game season to qualify for the playoffs are all good. Any of the teams are capable of having combinations of players perform throughout the grind of the postseason leading them to the World Series. All teams use analytics similarly to an extent. The makeup of the teams differ and success is a result of the athletes performances. 

I think you object to the three true outcomes plan for offense which is more a function of strategy suited to personel than just analytics. Yes, I prefer using all options and more contact than a parade of strike outs by the offense but it isn't so simple as just hit the ball as we have seen this postseason.

[CRF]

Coulda been us...we're not that far away. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As proven by this year’s playoffs, going in with a gaudy record guarantees exactly nothing.  I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone that picked either of them to make the WS outside of their own fan bases, and yet, here we are.  These results should make Twins fans a little more positive (but it likely won’t for some) about this past season.  Getting in the door of the playoffs is like getting in the door for a job interview. Everyone starts with the same clean slate and nearly anything can happen.  Back in 1987, the Twins were no juggernaut.  They simply had some good players and they got hot enough at the right time to win two playoff series.  People generally only remember that they won, not how they got there.  Let’s hope next year’s version of the Twins can duplicate that.  

[arby58]

Reminds me of what was arguably the greatest World Series ever - 1991 Twins versus Braves. Both those teams were last place teams the year before, with the Twins going 74-88 and the Braves 65-97. In 1991, the Twins went 95-67 (an improvement of 21 wins) and the Braves went 94-68 (an improvement of 29 wins).

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Pretty exciting to have two teams that have worked so hard to turn around their records in just two years playing in the World Series.

The playoffs this year have shown how important getting  a place at the table can be for any team. When someone has desires that the Twins need to do much more than just win the AL Central, it is good to remember that a historically great team like Atlanta can lose in their first round of games. Baseball has such a small difference between most teams that whomever peaks or gets hot has a shot at reaching the World Series. Arizona has the third worst record of any team to ever make it to the World Series. The competition is fierce in the playoffs and while some teams seem to ooze talent and have superior tough players, the reality is that any team can go on a run. Just a month or so ago, both Texas and Arizona looked very beatable to a number of teams. The Twins swept the Diamondbacks and defeated the Rangers in 5 out of 7 games. Now the World Series features two exciting teams who have bounced back from their failures of two years past. It could be a really fun series to watch.

I hope that everyone reads your excellent post... understands what you are saying and remembers what you are saying next July before they are about to type things like "Weak Central" or "This team can't win in the playoffs" as they minimize a team sitting in first place or in contention for the playoffs or justify not making trade deadline improvements.   

Never take contention for granted. You build a team to survive the regular season and make the playoffs.

If you are in contention... try to make yourself stronger.   

The best records in baseball are teams that win 6 out of 10 games on average. The Worst records in baseball are team that win 4 out of 10 games. Those very same margins get even tighter once you make the playoffs. Anybody want to bet everything you own based on those margins. Go ahead and pick your favorite team and give me the field. I'll take that bet every single time. 

Unfortunately... by opening day 2024... very few will remember that the 6th seeded D-Backs are taking on the 5th seeded Rangers in the World Series and those who remember will have found a way to adopt the Rangers or D-backs success into their own personal narrative on how a team is built to win the world series. 

For those who had Brandon Pfaadt and his 5.72 ERA during the regular season on their bingo card... Rise up and explain it to us.    

 

 

[BH67]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Baseball isn't random. The teams that survive a 162 game season to qualify for the playoffs are all good. Any of the teams are capable of having combinations of players perform throughout the grind of the postseason leading them to the World Series. All teams use analytics similarly to an extent. The makeup of the teams differ and success is a result of the athletes performances. 

I think you object to the three true outcomes plan for offense which is more a function of strategy suited to personel than just analytics. Yes, I prefer using all options and more contact than a parade of strike outs by the offense but it isn't so simple as just hit the ball as we have seen this postseason.

Thank you. That summarizes my objection to the modern game mathematically.

[big dog]

It's also interesting to see what those teams did in July.

Texas traded for:

Jordan Montgomery

Max Scherzer

along with Kevin Plawecki (who was later released), Chris Stratton, and Austin Hedges

 

Arizona traded for:

Paul Sewald

Tommy Pham

Jace Peterson

along with Peter Strzelecki

 

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

it isn't so simple as just hit the ball as we have seen this postseason.

I think the Phillies who were swinging at curve balls in the dirt last night would agree with you. "Just make contact" is really, really difficult.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

Thank you. That summarizes my objection to the modern game mathematically.

For me, it also explains why analytics are useful. I guess it's one of those glass half full/half empty, and your mileage may vary discussions.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

There is no one strategy that helps you win in the postseason. Adolis Garcia has a career 29.1% K rate, and he did horrible, awful things to Houston in the ALCS. Ketel Marte has a career 15.1% K rate, and he did horrible, awful things to Philadelphia. Texas' bullpen is pretty terrible, while Arizona was able to ride the back end of their bullpen to the WS. Arizona won game seven behind the arm of Brandon Pfaadt, and Texas had playoff ace Jordan Montgomery piggyback off of future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Texas hit a bunch of homers, while Arizona played small ball and good defense to win.

The secret sauce is just to let your players play the way they are good at. If Bruce Bochy had told Garcia to shorten up and put the ball in play, the Astros would still be alive. If Terry Lovullo had told Ketel Marte to swing for the fences, the Phillies would have won their second consecutive pennant. Put your players in positions to succeed, if you've made it to the postseason, you have enough talent to prevail.

[MMMordabito]

Both teams also drafted All-Stars in the 2019 draft instead of Keoni Flippin' Cavaco.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Some other interesting similarities between the 4 team LCS field.

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants had offenses 1, 2, 4, and 5 by wRC+ (MIL was 3).

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants averaged 1.75 HR/game.  The 8 non-LCS participants averaged 0.63 HR/game (only the Twins averaged more than 1 HR/game, and they were at 1.16).

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants stole 45 bases in 48 games.  The 8 non-LCS participants stole 4 bases in 24 games.

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants had 11 Sac Flies in 48 games.  The non-LCS participants had 2 in 24 games.

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants averaged 4.9 runs/game.  8 non-LCS participants averaged 2 runs/game.

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants were all top half in OPS, BB rate, and hard hit rate.

In the playoffs, the 4 LCS participants were 4th, 5th, 9th, and 12th in k rate (the WS teams are 9th and 12th).

In the playoffs the 4 LCS participants were 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 12th in SIERA (the WS teams are 7th and 12th).

In the playoffs the 4 LCS participants were 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 9th in HR/9.

In the playoffs the 4 LCS participants were 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in WHIP.

In the playoffs the 4 LCS participants were 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th in BB rate.

What can we learn about all this?

1. You have to have a good offense--that is more important than having good pitching (that said, the pitching can't be terrible).
2. That good offense has to be able to hit homeruns, but it also has to be able to grind out runs through taking extra bases, and "small-balling" opponents
3. Your pitching has to be able to limit baserunners and homeruns.
4. That does not mean the pitching needs to strike out a lot of batters.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

Both teams also drafted All-Stars in the 2019 draft instead of Keoni Flippin' Cavaco.

The Twins never had a shot at Josh Jung, but man would Corbin Carroll or George Kirby be nice.

[BH67]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

For me, it also explains why analytics are useful. I guess it's one of those glass half full/half empty, and your mileage may vary discussions.

Agreed. Analytics are essential to the modern game and enable competitive advantages previously unrealized. And in 2023, it played a big role in two teams with first-round road series making it to the World Series.

Upon reflection, my peeve instead is having 12 teams in the playoffs now and thus increasing the likelihood of such an occurrence. In my lifetime these upsets happen more often in baseball than in other North American sports with expanded playoff pools. A team that dominated the regular season has little better chance of success than a team like Texas or Arizona who see-sawed all year long. I don't like that.

Also, the pre-analytics era is where my love of baseball is rooted. As stated earlier, the "three true outcomes" approach is not what made me a fan. And the game is not as fun for me now.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Both teams also drafted All-Stars in the 2019 draft instead of Keoni Flippin' Cavaco.

A true head scratcher at the time....even worse in retrospect. 

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

 Back in 1987, the Twins were no juggernaut.  They simply had some good players and they got hot enough at the right time to win two playoff series.  

It goes back to the old saying: it's not just who you play, it's when (and where, I suppose) you play them. To win the World Series a team has to win 11 of 19 games or 13 of 22 games, depending on seeding. It would not raise an eyebrow for any team, including even Oakland or Kansas City, to do this at some point during the course of a regular season. But do it at the right time and you're World Champions.

[ashbury]

I wonder whether Texas would be willing trade Evan Carter to us for Aaron Sabato, the player we drafted when Carter was still on the board.

/ edit - it is pointed out to me, that at the time, the pick of Carter was a head-scratcher to a lot of observers:

https://www.mlb.com/rangers/video/rangers-draft-of-carter-no-50?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

[Aerodeliria]

The way Arizona has played in the playoffs. Their regular season record. Their manager's in-game management, especially in the playoffs. Their we can overcome any obstacle that is thrown our way attitude, despite the media questioning their legitimacy as a playoff team--all of these things remind me of the 1987 Twins.

[Eris]

Not meaning for this comment to take anything away from Texas, but Fangraphs have Dusty Baker an F for his in game management. One of the reasons was for continually using the same 3 relievers until they were out of gas. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alcs-managerial-report-card-dusty-baker/

 

[Schmoeman5]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

I wonder whether Texas would be willing trade Evan Carter to us for Aaron Sabato, the player we drafted when Carter was still on the board.

/ edit - it is pointed out to me, that at the time, the pick of Carter was a head-scratcher to a lot of observers:

https://www.mlb.com/rangers/video/rangers-draft-of-carter-no-50?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

Really?

[ashbury]

51 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Really?

Yes, according to that video, Carter really was lightly regarded when he was drafted.  

Would the Rangers really make the trade? Um, no, but it might get a chuckle if brought up in passing at the winter meetings.  My actual intention was to highlight what a great draft choice they made, in light of the current post-season.  Sabato himself isn't the issue.  Really.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yes, according to that video, Carter really was lightly regarded when he was drafted.  

Would the Rangers really make the trade? Um, no, but it might get a chuckle if brought up in passing at the winter meetings.  My actual intention was to highlight what a great draft choice they made, in light of the current post-season.  Sabato himself isn't the issue.  Really.

I watched that draft and you're right. No one knew who he was. My Really was meant do you really think the Rangers would entertain a trade for Sabato and giving up Carter.  The jury is still out on Carter.  He's played a little over a month. He doesn't hit lefties well so far. And he has some speed but I've seen him take some adventurous routes in the OF

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

Not meaning for this comment to take anything away from Texas, but Fangraphs have Dusty Baker an F for his in game management. One of the reasons was for continually using the same 3 relievers until they were out of gas. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alcs-managerial-report-card-dusty-baker/

 

A contrarian view which distracts from his other work. I read that and just shook my head.

Been reading/following Fangraphs for a decade plus. They have their ups and downs; it's a good site for reference. Opinioned.

[BH67]

5 hours ago, Eris said:

Not meaning for this comment to take anything away from Texas, but Fangraphs have Dusty Baker an F for his in game management. One of the reasons was for continually using the same 3 relievers until they were out of gas. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alcs-managerial-report-card-dusty-baker/

 

But Bruce Bochy doing essentially the same with Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc has been a key factor in the Rangers' playoff run. Go figure.

I am reminded frequently of the late Stephen Stucker's explanation why a problem occurred in Airplane II: "Could be your dishwashing detergent." Makes more sense than many other social media explanations.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

My Really was meant do you really think the Rangers would entertain a trade for Sabato and giving up Carter.  The jury is still out on Carter.  He's played a little over a month. He doesn't hit lefties well so far. And he has some speed but I've seen him take some adventurous routes in the OF

He's 21, still a baby, and yet showing ability at a league level far above most prospects that age are even dreaming of attaining.  If I were a FO I would trade him away about as quickly as I'd trade my youngest son (who Carter happens to resemble a little).  The results against major league lefties are small sample and his minor league splits look okay to me, but even if there is a genuine problem, he's got plenty of time to let the coaches help him before he's old enough to give up on and make him a platoon player.  The good results against righties are also still small sample, and he likely won't maintain quite that level of output, but he's no Hurricane Hazle, ready to fizzle out next spring.  The scouting report I looked at suggests he has all the tools to become a good left fielder.  I have no idea what it would take to pry him away, but I'll spell out again that even mentioning Sabato in such a context was intended as a joke, a humorous understatement.