So you're saying there's a chance (to avoid the wildcard round)

[GusGus11]

2 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

LAA doesn't play Houston - they have Seattle tonight, and 3 against Arizona.

If I have this right - There are so many things that have to go just right.

• Texas has to lose to LAA tonight
• Seattle has to lose to Houston tonight
• Texas HAS to lose 3 of 4 EXACTLY against Seattle (no more no less)
• Houston needs to lose at least one game against Arizona
• ...and the Twins need to win all remaining games.

This puts the final standings with Houston winning the division (89-73), Texas in 2nd (89-73), and Seattle in 3rd (88-74)

The key here is the head to head records we have.  If Seattle gets to 89 wins its over since they own the better h2h record against us.  If Houston and Texas get to 89-73 along with the Twins, we take the #2 seed.

Why cant Houston lose a second game to Zona? That would have them 88-74 and Texas winning division at 89-73 whom we have tiebreaker over??

[HokieRif]

11 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

Why cant Houston lose a second game to Zona? That would have them 88-74 and Texas winning division at 89-73 whom we have tiebreaker over??

Losing a 2nd game is fine.  As long as Houston ends up with no more than 89 wins.  If they did lose two, as you said, then Texas wins and we still hold the tie-breaker.

[Nine of twelve]

After a few incorrect and/or incomplete posts I think I finally have it.

The Twins must finish with 89 wins.

Texas must finish with 89 wins.

Houston or Seattle must finish with 89 wins but not both.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Who wins the AL West in the event of a three-way tie at 89-73?

[stringer bell]

I believe it is Seattle, as things stand and that would make the Twins the #3 seed. 

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Who wins the AL West in the event of a three-way tie at 89-73?

Stringer Bell is correct. It would be Seattle. Regardless of how they wind up with 89 wins their record in head-to-head-to-head competition would be 14-12. One of the other two teams would finish at 13-13 and the third team at 12-14. A three-way tie with two teams at 14-12 and the third at 11-15 is not possible.

To expand on this: if the 3-way tie at 89 happens and Toronto finishes with 89 or fewer wins Houston would be the #5 seed and Texas the #6. If Toronto finishes with 90 or more wins they would be the #5 seed and Houston would be #6. 

[singlesoverwalks]

According to my calculations, as of tonight (Tuesday I think), if the Twins win all their remaining games, and Texas loses to the Angels tonight, and Seattle loses to Houston tonight, and then Seattle takes 3 of 4 in the end-of-season series vs. Texas,  and Houston is no better than 3-2 for the rest of the season then the Twins get a buy for the wildcard round. 👍

[Logi_Clevs]

Not likely but not impossible!

[SwainZag]

Extremely improbable, but if you would have told me 6 weeks ago that the Twins would still be alive for the 2 seed with 5 games to play, I probably wouldn't have believed you.

[singlesoverwalks]

If every game is 50/50, there's a 13 in 8192 chance of this happening. Or about 0.16%, if you like percentages.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

If every game is 50/50, there's a 13 in 8192 chance of this happening. Or about 0.16%, if you like percentages.

Few if any MLB games are 50/50.

[singlesoverwalks]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Few if any MLB games are 50/50.

Agreed. I just can't handle the math if they aren't.

[GusGus11]

Its obviously highly unlikely but if all breaks tonight, us and Houston winning and Texas losing. It starts to have more of a shot

Its not insane to see Seattle still winning 3/4 vs Texas over weekend. And definitely not insane to see the Astros losing 1 in Zona

So really toughest part would be us still winning 4.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Few if any MLB games are 50/50.

 

1 hour ago, singlesoverwalks said:

Agreed. I just can't handle the math if they aren't.

Of course. But we don't know ahead of time what the actual odds are because they can't be accurately computed, so we approximate using 50/50. 

[Nine of twelve]

.

[singlesoverwalks]

It really seems like the Angels are not on board with this plan.

[singlesoverwalks]

13 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

After a few incorrect and/or incomplete posts I think I finally have it.

The Twins must finish with 89 wins.

Texas must finish with 89 wins.

Houston or Seattle must finish with 89 wins but not both.

It's very confusing. If Seattle finishes with 89 wins and wins the division, they are seeded #2 because they have the tiebreaker against the Twins. But if Seattle and Texas both finish with 89 wins - still possible, if Texas wins tonight, Seattle loses, and then Seattle sweeps Texas - then Texas wins the West because they have the tiebreaker against Seattle, but are seeded #3 because the Twins have the tiebreaker against them (if the Twins win out, and Houston has fewer than 89 wins).

If Houston, Seattle, and Texas all finish on 89 wins, I don't know who wins the division. They each have the tiebreaker on one of the others. Houston would also be the #3 seed in that scenario if they win out.

[singlesoverwalks]

6 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

It's very confusing. If Seattle finishes with 89 wins and wins the division, they are seeded #2 because they have the tiebreaker against the Twins. But if Seattle and Texas both finish with 89 wins - still possible, if Texas wins tonight, Seattle loses, and then Seattle sweeps Texas - then Texas wins the West because they have the tiebreaker against Seattle, but are seeded #3 because the Twins have the tiebreaker against them (if the Twins win out, and Houston has fewer than 89 wins).

If Houston, Seattle, and Texas all finish on 89 wins, I don't know who wins the division. They each have the tiebreaker on one of the others. Houston would also be the #3 seed in that scenario if they win out.

Found it. Seattle wins the division in that scenario on "intradivision record."

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-postseason-tiebreaker-scenarios

[IndianaTwin]

6 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

It's very confusing. If Seattle finishes with 89 wins and wins the division, they are seeded #2 because they have the tiebreaker against the Twins. But if Seattle and Texas both finish with 89 wins - still possible - then Texas sins the West because they have the tiebreaker against Seattle, but are seeded #3 because the Twins have the tiebreaker against them (if the Twins win out, and Houston gas fewer than 89 wins).

If Houston, Seattle, and Texas all finish on 89 wins, I don't know who wins the division. They each have the tiebreaker on one of the others. Houston would also be the #3 seed in that scenario if they win out.

See Nine of Twelve’s post above for the explanation, but Seattle wins a three-way tie. 

[BH67]

Texas wins. The only path to the bye given the current tiebreakers is:

Houston hangs on to win tonight, without which it's over anyway.

The Twins and Mariners go 4-0 Thursday-Sunday.

Houston loses at least twice to Arizona.

(UPDATE: Step 1 achieved successfully. At least the permutation phase of this is done. The mind-blowing permutations happen if Seattle sweeps four from Texas -- depending on the results of Blue Jays and Astros games, both Seattle and Texas could win the division, be a wild card, or miss the playoffs entirely.)

[Nine of twelve]

With each passing day it becomes simpler. (And easier for the Twins but still very difficult.)

The Twins will get the 2 seed only if they win all 4 remaining games, Seattle sweeps Texas, and Houston loses at least 2 of its games against Arizona. Making the assumption for the sake of discussion that there is a 1 in 2 chance of each possible outcome in each of the 11 games involved there is a 1 in 512 chance of this happening.

This would create a tie at 89 wins between Seattle and Texas with Houston in third with 87 or 88 wins. Texas would win the West by virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Seattle. The Twins, also at 89 wins, would get the 2 seed by virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Texas. Seattle would get the 5 or 6 seed.

In the event of a 3-way tie for first place Seattle would win the West by virtue of holding the tiebreaker. They would get the 2 seed no matter how the Twins finish because they hold the tiebreaker over the Twins. Houston would finish second in the West by virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Texas and get the 5 or 6 seed. This is the only way Seattle could win the West.

If Houston and Texas finish in a 2-way tie for first place Houston would win the West and get the 2 seed. Texas would get the 5 or 6 seed.

A 2-way tie for first place between Houston and Seattle is not possible. If those two teams finish tied for second place Seattle holds the tiebreaker and would get the 5 or 6 seed.

Toronto would get the 5 seed if they win all 4 of their remaining games. Other than that I don't know anything about possible scenarios involving Toronto.

I don't know anything about possible scenarios in the National League.

[singlesoverwalks]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

 

The Twins will get the 2 seed only if they win all 4 remaining games, Seattle sweeps Texas, and Houston loses at least 2 of its games against Arizona. Making the assumption for the sake of discussion that there is a 1 in 2 chance of each possible outcome in each of the 11 games involved there is a 1 in 512 chance of this happening.

Yep! The Twins sweeping the 4 games against the A's and Rockies seems plausible, if not likely. It would be amazing if the Mariners swept the Rangers.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

Yep! The Twins sweeping the 4 games against the A's and Rockies seems plausible, if not likely. It would be amazing if the Mariners swept the Rangers.

Plausible, but it's never likely to win 4 games in a row. The Twins have been winning 70% of their games over their last 10 but that only gives them even odds to win the next 2 in a row. To get a 50% chance of winning 4 in a row you need an 85% chance of winning each game. To be "likely" you're saying the Twins have a greater than 85% chance of winning each of the next four games.

[singlesoverwalks]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Plausible, but it's never likely to win 4 games in a row. The Twins have been winning 70% of their games over their last 10 but that only gives them even odds to win the next 2 in a row. To get a 50% chance of winning 4 in a row you need an 85% chance of winning each game. To be "likely" you're saying the Twins have a greater than 85% chance of winning each of the next four games.

Oh yeah. Baseball is so random. Winning 4 games in a row is never "likely" - even against the two worst teams in each league.

[stringer bell]

Yes, it would be great to sneak into the #2 seed, but it would nice to have a better record than whoever doesn’t make the postseason. I really don’t want hear national people saying the Twins didn’t deserve to make the postseason based on their record. 
 

Right now, they’re tied with Seattle and trail the other possible Wild Cards. 

[Nine of twelve]

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[HokieRif]

[jkcarew]

Never was going to happen.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

Just like Kaiser Sosay 

[HokieRif]

4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Never was going to happen.

Long-shot for sure.  But, it made the last few days way more interesting to watch.