Twins Make Dubious History with Strikeout Record

[Matt Braun]

When Ryan Jeffers punched out looking in the 2nd inning of Sunday's game, he officially broke Minnesota's tie with the 2021 Cubs, becoming the team's 1597th strikeout of the season. Awards were had for all and the champagne popped in celebration was only the finest the team could find.

 

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Unless your TV only plays reruns of the 1980s Cardinals, you've noticed that whiffing in today's game is at a rate never before seen in MLB. The average hitter in 2023 strikes out in 22.7% of their plate appearances, almost three points higher than a decade ago. You need not dig far to see why; hitters primarily focus on dispensing baseballs to the outfield bleachers, swinging recklessly in the hopes that something good may happen if they make contact. There are exceptions—such as a certain Miami Marlins infielder—but the art of the base hit is dying, which doesn't appear to be changing soon.

The thing is, this strategy works. Minnesota's offense isn't bad. They're 11th in runs scored, 10th in slugging, and 8th in wRC+. Sure, their numbers aren't making anyone forget about the 1927 Yankees. Still, that perfectly cromulent offense—when combined with their excellent starting rotation—has won them plenty of games, enough to reserve them a playoff spot in 2023.

And this isn't a uniquely Twins problem: because strikeout rates have risen so much, their K%+—a stat that adjusts strikeout rate with league norms—is just 117, meaning they're only 17% higher than your average squad in 2023. Plenty of teams have been worse than that: over 80 in the AL since WW2, to be exact. Shoot, the 1972 and 2013 Twins put up the same rate, and I doubt anyone who watched that 2013 team grumbled about how often they came up empty (although you probably weren't a fan of Pedro Florimón's 446 plate appearances that year.)

Let me be clear, though: this isn't great. Strikeouts are both an aesthetic and strategic mess. Not putting the ball in play robs us of watching the greatest athletes walk the Earth, run, and be athletic. We want to see something amazing; a guy missing a slider in the dirt doesn't cut the mustard. You can't hit and run anymore because who knows if the man at the plate can make contact, and moving a guy over with a productive out hasn't been a viable strategy since the Obama administration. These issues, while minor, have built to create an often dull, stagnant, station-to-station brand of baseball that causes in-stadium fans to become restless while at-home fans fall into a good nap.

Honestly, I don't know what the solution is. Pitchers are ridiculous these days; the best teams can build these guys in labs, upping their velocity and sharpening their stuff to the point where 98 and a wipeout slider barely registers in our brain. It's more notable if a guy doesn't throw 95. That cat's out of the bag: the training works, and MLB can't step in and tell teams not to be good at their jobs. Pushing the mound back could be a solution, but doing so would also allow more time for pitches to break, potentially negating the bonus reaction time for hitters. 

I've heard suggestions for baseball to follow a similar path as when golf had to reconcile with their new, young bombers. Players like Tiger Woods were eviscerating courses designed when woods were... made of wood. Now that they all can crush like crazy, courses are now designed to be longer and more challenging to offset the improved athlete. Pushing back the dimensions would be a similar feat—although doing so would likely cause many unwanted secondary effects—and, in the end, you wouldn't want to erase homers from the game completely; it's still the outcome that most excites a crowd.

A change will come somehow, though. These things wax and wane as strategy evolves; eventually, it'll become more rewarding to focus on base hits and contact, and stacking the lineup with hulking sluggers will be as funny as Babe Ruth's 114 career sacrifice bunts. I don't think that time is now—ask Cleveland how awesome a holistic contact approach is—but it will come eventually. For now, congratulations to the Minnesota Twins and whatever team inevitably beats their record next year.

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[Karbo]

The changes with the bases this year has helped, though I'm a little surprised that the 2 throw overs hasn't made much difference. It seems that some of the teams have gotten more athletic, but I think it will take a few years to see how much that helps. Hitting homers is "sexy" so IMO that will still be the main goal for most.

[pierre75275]

I know strikeouts aren't fun, but My God Man, did you see the Grandslam Matt Wallner hit?!?! 

Also is it just me or does Edouard Julien strikeout once and walk twice in his first 3 at bats every game?

[DJL44]

The last line is important. I don't expect this record to last very long. We may look back on this team and remember fondly how often they made contact.

[mikelink45]

I am one of those old timers who just cannot stomach the Ks.  Yes we create laboratory fastball pitchers and watch them limited to five innings and twice a career TJ surgery and yes first MN and now Atlanta set HR season records, but if the only pleasure I get from BB is the HR then let's change the format and have a HR derby instead of a game for each team meeting.

Look at this list of players with more HRs than Ks!  Johnny Mize hit 51 and still only struck out 42 times.  There are some great names on this list and people might be surprised by Barry Bonds being there - in 2004 - 45 - 41.  Good hitters get HRs without being a Joey Gallo bag of whiffs. 

On the other side do the new K records for pitchers really mean anything when everyone is swinging from their heals?  Nolan Ryan's record really stands out and even today no one can come close.  

Bob Feller won 266 games and had 2,581 strikeouts in 3827 innings while losing four years to military service.   1941 - Feller 25 - 13 had 260 strickeouts and 3.15 ERA.  Only three hitters struck out more than 100 times - Dolph Camilli 115, Jimmy Fox (58 hrs) 103 times, and Vince Dimaggion 100.  This year we have had 161 batters strikeout 100 or more times so far!  So how do we compare pitchers and their K rates with pitchers in other eras?

[terrydactyls]

Plenty of teams have had worse strikeout percentages - 80 since WW2?  That's one team per year!  According to my math, that ain't "a lot".

Mikelink - the list you attached a link to is awfully impressive.  Guys that hit more than 50 home runs in one year and struck out less than 50 times is special.  Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Kluszewski, Lou Gerhig, Johnny Mize, Yogi Berra (and more).  Because of my age, I had the opportunity to watch some of them play.  I almost wish I were even older so I might have had a chance to see more.

[Dennesey55347]

K's are easily forgivable when you excel in other ways. Take the disappointing Padres for example. Their top 5 are all easy starters on every MLB team with 105+ K's each and all carrying a WAR of 3+. No one in the Twins lineup can crack respectable run/RBI/hit/HR/walk totals, which makes their K rates pop even more. I would think our offense is one of the weakest (in total and star power) the playoffs have ever seen. They've had trouble all season with starters and expect whiff rates to stay high come playoff time but hope the Wallner/Slammin' Roycie combo platter gives us enough offensive magic to take us to the ALCS.

[saviking]

LOL .. I read the headlines and thought, cool, are pitchers  boke the strikeout record.  Opened the article and went, brain farther..

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The Twins have still scored the 11th most runs this year, while teams heavy on the contact-first, small ball approach like the Marlins and Guardians sit in a tie for 26th. The Twins have scored 99 more runs than both teams, and the only good offense in the bottom-5 strikeouts is the Astros. 

You win games by scoring more runs than the other guys, not striking out fewer times. Thus, your approach at the plate should be to maximize the amount of runs your team scores, not to minimize the number of strikeouts. In other words, guys should focus on hitting the ball hard, not avoiding Ks.

[umterp23]

Last time I checked:  AL Central Champs, Hosting 1st Round in Playoffs unless a miracle happens with AL West pennant chase.

Let's say we win 1/2 of the one run games we lost during the year, we would be roughly sitting on 10 more wins than we have now.  Would that change anyones perspective on K rate? 

[Matt Braun]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am one of those old timers who just cannot stomach the Ks.  Yes we create laboratory fastball pitchers and watch them limited to five innings and twice a career TJ surgery and yes first MN and now Atlanta set HR season records, but if the only pleasure I get from BB is the HR then let's change the format and have a HR derby instead of a game for each team meeting.

Look at this list of players with more HRs than Ks!  Johnny Mize hit 51 and still only struck out 42 times.  There are some great names on this list and people might be surprised by Barry Bonds being there - in 2004 - 45 - 41.  Good hitters get HRs without being a Joey Gallo bag of whiffs. 

On the other side do the new K records for pitchers really mean anything when everyone is swinging from their heals?  Nolan Ryan's record really stands out and even today no one can come close.  

Bob Feller won 266 games and had 2,581 strikeouts in 3827 innings while losing four years to military service.   1941 - Feller 25 - 13 had 260 strickeouts and 3.15 ERA.  Only three hitters struck out more than 100 times - Dolph Camilli 115, Jimmy Fox (58 hrs) 103 times, and Vince Dimaggion 100.  This year we have had 161 batters strikeout 100 or more times so far!  So how do we compare pitchers and their K rates with pitchers in other eras?

Well fortunately, we can use K%+ again to help cut through eras. You're absolutely on the nose with Bob Feller being an impressive strikeout artist; he struck out guys at a rate almost 70% better than his contemporaries, good for 10th all time amongst starters. The full list is here. 

[Woof Bronzer]

11 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

You win games by scoring more runs than the other guys, not striking out fewer times. 

Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure you need baserunners in order to score runs.  Not striking out means either putting the ball in play or walking/HBP, which leads to baserunners, which leads to runs.  Do you have any examples where a strikeout led to runs?  

[Woof Bronzer]

22 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The Twins have scored 99 more runs than both teams, and the only good offense in the bottom-5 strikeouts is the Astros. 

 

The Astros have finished in the bottom 5 every year since 2016 I believe.  How has avoiding strikeouts worked for them?

 

[Minny505]

Those three percentage points vs 2012 translates to about five less PAs per game that result in a ball-in-play, which is where most of the fun of watching baseball stems from. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

Last time I checked:  AL Central Champs, Hosting 1st Round in Playoffs unless a miracle happens with AL West pennant chase.

Let's say we win 1/2 of the one run games we lost during the year, we would be roughly sitting on 10 more wins than we have now.  Would that change anyones perspective on K rate? 

The Twins were 18-25 in one run games. If they won half of their one run games they would have won 21 or 22. 3-4 additional wins, not 10.

What is your evidence that they lost those games solely because of the batters striking out? The bullpen was a mess for most of the season.

[h2oface]

…. and the Braves are sitting at 301 homers with 5 games to go. They need 7 in 5 games to take away what will be a short lived record of 307 set by the 2019 Twins. But we have replaced it with the K record. That will probably be mercifully short lived, too, I bet - unless the Twins keep breaking it themselves!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

You're absolutely on the nose with Bob Feller being an impressive strikeout artist; he struck out guys at a rate almost 70% better than his contemporaries, good for 10th all time amongst starters. The full list is here. 

Feller threw gas. His contemporaries included guys who threw 85 MPH fastballs.

That whole list is full of pitchers with great fastballs. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by DJL44
Spitballers had all retired before Feller debuted

[DJL44]

I found this article today

Pitching Velocity Continues To Climb. How Can Hitters Adapt? (baseballamerica.com)

Quote

When pitchers dot the edges of the strike zone with an 88-92 mph fastball in 2023, hitters hit .267/.346/.464. Those same hitters hit .261/.261/.348 against four-seam fastballs of 98 mph or faster in the heart of the strike zone.

Yes, those are similar batting averages, but hitters are doing much more damage against a fastball with modest velocity on the black versus a harder fastball thrown straight down the middle.

Quote

Among pitchers who threw 100 or more MLB pitches in 2008, those who sat 92 mph threw harder than 58% of fellow MLB pitchers.

In 2023, pitchers who sat 92 mph threw harder than 17.8% of MLB pitchers.

 

[DJL44]

Increased velocity is going to shorten careers. I think Joey Votto, for example, would still be productive if pitchers were throwing 92 but he can't catch up to 98 MPH.

You're going to have a whole generation of players who don't have "Hall of Fame" statistics. Very few pitchers > 150 wins, very few hitters > 2500 hits or > .250 batting average. 

[Twins GFP]

Interesting how there is zero discussion about lowering the mound.  This would decrease the effectiveness of pitchers without drastically altering the current makeup of the game.

[mikelink45]

38 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Interesting how there is zero discussion about lowering the mound.  This would decrease the effectiveness of pitchers without drastically altering the current makeup of the game.

They did that for Bob Gibson, maybe they can pitch from a hole instead of a mound!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm not even remotely concerned about this.  We won the division, are in the playoffs and our season continues next week.  Therefore, we did something right.

I present two arguments.  

First, if you look at the list of career strikeout leaders among MLB hitters (individuals), you will see that it is led by hall of famers Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome.  In fact, when I looked at the entire top 100 list of career strikeout leaders, there wasn't anybody there who didn't qualify as at least a pretty good MLB player.  Why is that?  Because those players did enough good things that they had long careers and were allowed to continue to play in that same manner.  Some, the Miguel Sanos of the world, don't do enough things right that even though they have ridiculous numbers of strikeouts in a season, don't appear on the top career strikeout list.  You will notice that Joey Gallo does not appear on that list.  Someday, Byron Buxton may.  

Second, a strikeout, while not pretty for the fans (unless it's your team pitching), doesn't necessarily do less for the team than a weak ground ball that is fielded and thrown to first base for an out (or even for a double play) or than an infield fly.  Putting the ball in play certainly increases the odds that something good COULD happen, but doesn't necessarily mean that something good WILL happen.  Would it be better if all of those strikeouts could turn into balls in play?  Of course it would, but it is also not some unmitigated disaster that there are strikeouts.  They are a part of a particular way that a group of hitters plays the game.  If the Twins were made up of more hitters like Rod Carew or Luis Arraez, the strikeouts would come down, but that wouldn't necessarily get overall better results, especially if those hitters weren't actually as good as Arraez and Carew.

[Woof Bronzer]

16 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Putting the ball in play certainly increases the odds that something good COULD happen, but doesn't necessarily mean that something good WILL happen.  

30% of balls in play become hits.  0% of strikeouts do.  A strikeout is factually the worst of the available outcomes of a plate appearance.

23 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

If career strikeout leaders among MLB hitters (individuals), you will see that it is led by hall of famers Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome. 

As you say, a player needs to have a very long career to end up on a list like this.  A guy who strikes out too much isn't going to last long in the league, because strikeouts are bad.  Let's look at single season K rates.  Here are the 5 highest in history;

Mark Reynolds

Adam Dunn

Chris Davis

Yoan Moncada

Joey Gallo

As my dog likes to say:  woof.  

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

55 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

30% of balls in play become hits.  0% of strikeouts do.  A strikeout is factually the worst of the available outcomes of a plate appearance.

As you say, a player needs to have a very long career to end up on a list like this.  A guy who strikes out too much isn't going to last long in the league, because strikeouts are bad.  Let's look at single season K rates.  Here are the 5 highest in history;

Mark Reynolds

Adam Dunn

Chris Davis

Yoan Moncada

Joey Gallo

As my dog likes to say:  woof.  

 

Career strikeout totals were my point.  In and of themselves, strikeout totals aren't the death knell to a hitter.  See Thome, Jim.  or Jackson, Reggie. or for that matter Killebrew, Harmon.  That's why I used Miguel Sano as a negative example because he didn't have redeeming qualities that made his career longer. 

Certainly no hits result from strikeouts, but not all contact is the type to lead to more than an out.  The Twins had an outfielder that spent about 2 1/2 years doing that before he rediscovered himself recently.  I would also argue that a double play is much worse than a strikeout. 

I'm not saying that strikeouts are a desirable outcome.  However, they aren't necessarily indicative of disaster either.  You only keep score with runs.  Strikeouts don't take them away, unless you are in a very complicated fantasy league.

[insagt1]

funny that all of us have been very disappointed in Joey Gallo and his enormous k ratio which borders on 1 every 2 official ABs. But what also surprises me is that Julien has a very poor k-ratio too, Good news for him is he walks a ton. But he does strike out way too much when he isn't walking.n

And Twins have a few others whose k ratios are under 1 every 3 offical AB's. Somewhere Sano is enjoying a good meal and getting a chuckle!

Bottom line though..Twins are going to the playoffs. And they could be real competitive.

[Logi_Clevs]

There are different situations that require different approaches. I am a high school baseball coach, and trust me, I have to PREACH this to the guys day after day. It frustrates me watching a hitter (at any level, especially pros) watch strike 1 down the middle, swing at a bad pitch for strike 2, then swing for the fence at an even worse pitch for strike 3. I'm all for swinging out of your pants, but only in the right situations. I just wish more guys would shorten up with 2 strikes or runners in scoring position. Situational hitting is something that is rarely thought of or talked about during the regular season, but it can separate contenders from pretenders come October. 

 

[old nurse]

I recall reading a few years ago that the old notion of make any contact with 2 strikes  was actually less productive than normal swings. BAPIP has remained static while K% has gone up. If an increase in strikeouts was due to not “choking up”  there should be a corresponding increase in BABIP because there are less of the weak grounders in the infield. 

[umterp23]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins were 18-25 in one run games. If they won half of their one run games they would have won 21 or 22. 3-4 additional wins, not 10.

What is your evidence that they lost those games solely because of the batters striking out? The bullpen was a mess for most of the season.

my point wasn't whether strikeouts were the cause but if you win half of those losses isn't an increase of just 3 or 4 wins.  yes bullpen matters but its not the k's that drove every loss.  

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

30% of balls in play become hits.  0% of strikeouts do.  A strikeout is factually the worst of the available outcomes of a plate appearance.

100% of balls hit over the outfield fence become hits. A triple play is factually the worst outcome of a plate appearance.

[Woof Bronzer]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

100% of balls hit over the outfield fence become hits. A triple play is factually the worst outcome of a plate appearance.

Correct, a home run is one of the many available outcomes of putting a ball in play.  Can't hit a home run if you strikeout though!

A triple play is the outcome of a ball in play, not a plate appearance (unless you are suggesting hitters willfully decide to hit into a triple play?  Which would be weird.)  A ball in play is about 100,000x more likely to turn into a hit vs a triple play, so if you are suggesting strikeouts are preferable to putting a ball in play because of the extraordinarily rare occurrence of a triple play, then we just disagree. 

For those of you who continue to insist that strikeouts are fine:  why don't we fill our starting rotation with pitch to contact guys?  They'd be much, much cheaper, and if strikeouts are just another out, velocity really doesn't matter.  You in?