Twins Playoff Roster: Starting Rotation

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have two of baseball’s best starting pitchers heading into October. Will it be enough to make a long postseason run?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

It takes a team effort to win in October, including strong starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and depth up-and-down the line-up. In recent years, the Twins front office made a conscious effort to add to the starting rotation, with none of the team’s top-four starters being drafted by the club. Instead, Minnesota has identified pitchers in other organizations with the potential to improve and helped them reach another level after joining the organization. Now it’s time to see how the front office’s pitching plan can work on baseball’s biggest stage. 

Aces At The Top: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray
An argument can be made for the Twins to start either of their top two pitchers in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray in the second half, so it seems likely for the team to keep the same order heading into October. He has been a strikeout machine in 2023 by accumulating more strikeouts than any Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. He had an ERA north of 4.20 through June, but his 3.38 FIP suggested he was a little unlucky. Since July, Lopez has been one of baseball’s best pitchers with a 2.87 ERA and a 102-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 2/3 innings. 

Lopez was the team’s Opening Day starter, and he will lead the starting rotation for multiple years in the future. The Twins have invested in Lopez, and they will hope he puts the team in a position to end its playoff losing streak. 

Gray has been performing better than Lopez over the last month so the team might consider him for the Game 1 start. Gerrit Cole is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young, but Gray will likely finish in the top three as he ranks near the top of the AL in WAR, ERA, WHIP, and H/9. His most significant improvement has been with HR/9, where his 0.40 total is the AL’s best mark. 

Over his last six starts (37 IP), he has posted a 1.46 ERA with a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If the Twins lose Game 1, there is no pitcher the club would rather have on the mound in an elimination game. He’s made four previous starts in the playoffs, but half of those were over a decade ago. Gray is heading to free agency at the season’s end and will want to make a solid final impression before hitting the open market. 

Game 3 Starter: Joe Ryan
The Twins will have a decision to make when naming a starter for Game 3 of the Wild Card round between Ryan and Kenta Maeda. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half but hit a rough patch in the middle of the season when he tried to pitch through a groin injury. He has pitched well in six starts since returning from the IL with a 3.82 ERA and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30 2/3 innings. Maeda will be on the roster, but what if the Twins decide to use him in a relief role earlier in the series? It’s also interesting to consider the team using a piggyback situation for Game 3, with Ryan starting and Maeda relieving him out of the bullpen.  

Starter Options for Other Rounds: Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Dallas Keuchel
The Twins will likely need at least three starters for their Wild Card series, which means one of these arms needs to be ready to start Game 1 of the ALDS. Maeda has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers in the second half, with a 3.60 ERA and a 71-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 65 innings. There’s a chance the Twins use Maeda out of the bullpen to survive the Wild Card round, which might push Ober into a Game 1 start. 

Ober has already posted a career-high in innings pitched, so there has been some discussion about how much he has left in the tank. Minnesota demoted him earlier this month, and he was skipped two times in the rotation before making another start. The Twins have won both of his starts since he returned from Triple-A, and he has thrown five innings and allowed two earned runs in both starts. Keuchel is probably not seeing much October action, but the team can turn to him in a pinch if something happens to one of the other starters. He has allowed three runs or more in four of his eight appearances with the Twins. 

The top of Minnesota’s rotation might be the strongest it has been for a postseason run in decades. It will take a team effort to make a long playoff run, but the rotation seems built for October success. How do you feel the team’s starting staff lines up for October? How do they compare to other starting staffs in the American League? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I would go Lopez, then Gray, and if a game 3 is played I would go to Ryan. Hopefully we get to round 2 where I would start Maeda, even if they don't need Ryan for a game 3, due to Maeda having post season experience.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Quality flexibility is such a good problem to have.

Arguing over the 3rd starter is semantics at the moment.  Like Rocco said, we gotta get  there first.  Lopez and Gray for games 1&2, the situation will dictate game 3. Ryan or Maeda will get the nod.  Look for Ober as a reliever. 

[old nurse]

With Ryan it may depend on how good the other team hit HR. In the 6 games he has pitched in he has given up 4 HR. If Twin bats have been quiet enough for concern, giving up a HR would ba a concern.

[Schmoeman5]

I like Lopez and Gray. Lopez starts seem to go along the lines of 5 good innings and 1 30+ pitch inning. But none the less solid. Grays starts are similar. He cruises along and then have a walk followed by a couple softly hit but well placed balls that will find holes and before you know it the other side will have plated a couple runs. But still a solid start. I saw last night. 65 year old Verlander pitched into the 9th inning. I'm not expecting that kind of performance from Lopez or Gray. But it sure would go a long way towards a successful Twins run in the playoffs.

[jacob]

If we are the 3 seed what time would the games be at?

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

With Ryan it may depend on how good the other team hit HR. In the 6 games he has pitched in he has given up 4 HR. If Twin bats have been quiet enough for concern, giving up a HR would ba a concern.

Wouldn't it be splendid if Twins offense gets hot and goes on a run in October? Along side the stellar pitching staff? Fun to dream about. Maybe...

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, jacob said:

If we are the 3 seed what time would the games be at?

They'll wait to see what seeds the big market clubs get and will determine TV schedules based on that.

[JD-TWINS]

IMO, it seems obvious it’s Lopez - Gray - Ryan…..the first two slots are because it’s the way their natural rest lines them up.

Lopez will throw Wednesday v. Oakland & Gray Thursday. Lopez has Thursday - Monday off and would be up to throw next Tuesday on 4 days rest. Ditto for Gray the following day.

Ryan will get the nod ahead of Ober.

Rocco has already stated Maeda will go to the Pen later this week.

Ober & Kuechel won’t be rostered for WC series.

They seem sold on Paddack for long relief in October. Varland - Maeda long guys as well. All 3 will be used as needed.9

Honestly, I think Paddack gets innings in one of first two games if ahead by a few or behind. He’s there to stretch the Pen by eliminating innings pitched by others. Can’t imagine high leverage situations for him.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

I would like to see Pablo start game 1. If we win game 1 I would start a Ryan/Maeda piggy back game 2. If we lose game 1 I would have  Gray starting game 2. This sets up Gray for either game 2, 3 or game 1 and possibly 5 of round 2.  If it takes 3 games to win round one Pablo goes on 3 days rest in game 1 of round 2 and also is available for game 5. 

[jorgenswest]

21 minutes ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

I would like to see Pablo start game 1. If we win game 1 I would start a Ryan/Maeda piggy back game 2. If we lose game 1 I would have  Gray starting game 2. This sets up Gray for either game 2, 3 or game 1 and possibly 5 of round 2.  If it takes 3 games to win round one Pablo goes on 3 days rest in game 1 of round 2 and also is available for game 5. 

I hadn’t considered utilizing Gray with flexibility based on the outcome of game 1. It is intriguing. I think I would still start Ober in game 1 of the next series. Lopez on short rest going up against a rested team ace doesn’t seem like a good plan. Send Ober against the ace and Lopez can still start 2 and 5 on normal rest.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would go Lopez, then Gray, and if a game 3 is played I would go to Ryan. Hopefully we get to round 2 where I would start Maeda, even if they don't need Ryan for a game 3, due to Maeda having post season experience.

I'm confused why you'd start Ryan over Maeda in game 3 of round 1, but Maeda over Ryan in game 1 of round 2.

If post season experience matters, why wouldn't you want it for the elimination game (round 1, game 3)?

[laloesch]

27 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm confused why you'd start Ryan over Maeda in game 3 of round 1, but Maeda over Ryan in game 1 of round 2.

If post season experience matters, why wouldn't you want it for the elimination game (round 1, game 3)?

That's a great question. The other issue is Ryan's over-reliance on his 4-seam fastball which is where 17 of his homeruns given up came from.  Against better, determined hitters in the playoffs that's a dangerous tonic.

• Maeda has the experience and five pitch mix to get tough hitters out: Split finger 31.6%, Slider 30.6%, 4-seam fb 27.7%, Sinker 6.5%, Curve ball 3.7%.
• Ryan on the other hand: Split finger 11.4%, Slider 4%, Sweeper (kinda a slider) 11.4%, 4-seam fb 56.8%.

 

 

[Karbo]

55 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm confused why you'd start Ryan over Maeda in game 3 of round 1, but Maeda over Ryan in game 1 of round 2.

If post season experience matters, why wouldn't you want it for the elimination game (round 1, game 3)?

Mainly because Ryan is lined up for Game 3. Also, I would want Kenta available out of the pen in round 1. I hope they don't need him in the 1st round, but to me, he could be vital if something gets out of wack in the 1st round. Since we don't really know what the plan in the pen yet, I'm kind of guessing anyway. The 2nd round would be higher pressure I would think and that could be a better fit for Maeda, if they don't need him in the 1st. One other thing, Ryan is a big part of the future so I'd let him get his 1st post season experience just in case there isn't a round 2.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

the question I am asking as well. My guess is Philly (Brewers) will get the prime time game. The Cubs and Astros, maybe they schedule overlapping primary time games?

Quick glance at last years times were 11am, 1pm, 3pm, 6:30pm

[mnfireman]

Stats for the big 4 over the last 30 days, 5 starts each:

Lopez - 2-2 3.19 ERA 37/7 K/BB ratio 4 HR in 31 IP 4 QS

Gray - 1-2 1.50 ERA 28/4 K/BB ratio 2 HR in 30 IP 4 QS

Ryan - 2-2 4.21 ERA 32/6 K/BB ratio 3 HR in 25.2 IP 2 QS

Maeda - 3-0 4.44 ERA 24/6 K/BB ratio 4 HR in26.1 IP 1 QS

With the exception of Gray, they all at least one BAD start over this time frame, but he did only go 4 against the Rays on September 11. Lopez is the only one to not have a start of less than 5 innings and all have pitched into the 6th at least twice. I think the starters are ready, but if the offense and/or the bullpen doesn't, it will be another quick play-off exit.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

I would like to see Pablo start game 1. If we win game 1 I would start a Ryan/Maeda piggy back game 2. If we lose game 1 I would have  Gray starting game 2. This sets up Gray for either game 2, 3 or game 1 and possibly 5 of round 2.  If it takes 3 games to win round one Pablo goes on 3 days rest in game 1 of round 2 and also is available for game 5. 

Can’t imagine/agree that anybody is starting on 3 days rest with our starter depth. Ober would start game 1 on Saturday if WC goes 3 games….,then Lopez on normal rest Sunday……Gray on an extra day’s rest Tuesday……….Ryan at home in game 4…….Game 5, on road, Maeda to start if he’s fresh & then the kitchen sink in order to advance.

[jccracraft]

As I've said elsewhere, I don't understand why Ober does not have a shot at #3 starter, or at least our of the BP? To me the stats look better.

Player	GP	GS	IP	W	L	SV	SVO	H	R	HR	ER	ERA	BB	SO	WHIP
Pablo Lopez SP	31	31	189.2	11	8	0	0	171	78	24	76	3.61	47	228	1.15
Sonny Gray SP	31	31	180	8	8	0	0	153	58	8	56	2.80	54	179	1.15
Joe Ryan SP	28	28	156.2	11	10	0	0	147	77	29	75	4.31	33	191	1.15
Bailey Ober SP	25	25	137.2	8	6	0	0	123	57	21	54	3.53	29	137	1.10
Kenta Maeda SP	20	20	101	6	7	0	0	93	49	16	48	4.28	26	112	1.18

[Scott51104]

Isn't it a nice change that all five of these pitchers are lower than 1.2 WHIP

[I Never Bet On Sports]

On 9/27/2023 at 9:16 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t imagine/agree that anybody is starting on 3 days rest with our starter depth. Ober would start game 1 on Saturday if WC goes 3 games….,then Lopez on normal rest Sunday……Gray on an extra day’s rest Tuesday……….Ryan at home in game 4…….Game 5, on road, Maeda to start if he’s fresh & then the kitchen sink in order to advance.

I agree with you that it is very unlikely we start anyone on three days rest. That probably only happens if Ober, Ryan, and Maeda all pitch in the first series. Then  it would be either Pablo on 3 days rest or Keuchel. My main point was that I like the idea of holding Gray for game 3 if we win game 1 in the wild card series.

It is very likely Ober would start game 1 of round two if the wild card goes three games. In that five game series there are two travel days so Lopez could start game 2 on normal rest Sunday then game 5 on normal rest Friday - no game five kitchen sink needed.

[mnfireman]

With Rocco's penchant for stats, spreadsheets and optimizing match-ups, I'm surprised he made the Maeda to the BP announcement already. Seattle is a very realistic WC opponent and Maeda had back-to-back quality starts against them in July, allowing 3 ER in 12.2 IP with a 17/2 K/BB ratio. The Twins won both games, but Maeda got 2 no-decisions. He did not face Houston or Toronto this season.

Ryan, meanwhile, pitched against Seattle, Houston and Toronto, but not very well. He was 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA, a 7/2K/BB ratio and allowed 2 HR in 3.2 innings against Seattle. Against Houston he was 1-1 with a 8.10 ERA, a 16/4 K/BB ratio and allowed 4 HR in 10 innings. And against Toronto he was 0-0 with 4.50 ERA, a 4/1 K/BB ratio but allowed 0 HR in 6 innings.

And just to muddy the waters a bit, Ober pitched decently against both Toronto and Seattle, but did not face Houston. Against Seattle he was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA, a 5/0 K/BB ratio and allowed 1 HR in 6 innings. Against Toronto he was 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA, a 7/1 K/BB  ratio but allowed 0 HR in 5 innings.

[Kevin H]

I would go with Maeda over Ryan for game 3. Just look at how they have pitched in the last month. Couldn't be more different and clarifying.

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, Kevin H said:

I would go with Maeda over Ryan for game 3. Just look at how they have pitched in the last month. Couldn't be more different and clarifying.

They have kept Maeda stretched out. It is a possibility. The Dodgers used Maeda as a high leverage reliever in the playoffs. His value there was similar to that of a starter. If his role in this playoffs is long man if needed, I think he is more valuable as a starter.