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Twins fans will look back on the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade for quite some time. Arraez was a fan favorite, and Lopez was viewed as a good but maybe not great starting pitcher. The Twins' front office felt that Lopez had more to offer as a starting pitcher and believed he could become a top-of-the-rotation starter. However, looking at his previous track record, that wasn't completely evident.
Lopez was coming off a solid season where he posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 180 innings. He compiled an 8.7 K/9, which was his lowest total since 2019. There were also some signs of him tiring as his ERA rose from 2.86 in the first half to 4.97 in the second half. In his first four seasons with Miami, he posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 1.20 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He was a solid starter, but the Twins believed they could get more from Lopez in 2023.
Like many pitchers across baseball, Lopez added a sweeper over the last year, which has become one of his best secondary pitches. Opponents have hit .183 against his sweeper with a .310 SLG with a 35.6 Whiff%. His only pitch with a higher Whiff% is his curveball (38.4%), but he's thrown this pitch over 200 times less than his other secondary pitches and primarily used it against lefties. His velocity has increased on all his pitches, with his fastball seeing the most significant increase at 1.4 mph. His increase in velocity and the addition of his sweeper have impacted his overall performance.
Lopez's peripheral data also points to his improvements this season. He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, BB%, K%, and Whiff%. His best categories include ranking in the 91st percentile for chase rate and 97th percentile for extension. For some perspective, he ranked in the 50th percentile or lower in many of the categories mentioned above in 2022.
Lopez is four strikeouts away from becoming the Twins' first 200-strikeout pitcher since Jose Berrios in 2018. With seven more strikeouts, he will have the most strikeouts by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana reached 235 strikeouts in 2007. Only two pitchers in team history, Bert Blyleven and Santana, have collected more than 235 strikeouts, and that is a total Lopez can reach before the season's end.
Santana and Lopez are both Venezuelan natives, and the latter grew up idolizing the former left-handed Cy Young winner. Lopez, like Santana, has a strong change-up that can be a strikeout weapon. He might not be watching the strikeout totals for the season, especially with his team in the division race. However, he has a chance to be mentioned in the same company as his boyhood idol, which must be a thrill.
"Consistency with a process can lead to consistency with results," Lopez told reporters. "It's gotten to the point when you want to focus on quality over quantity when it comes to getting your work in. Every start will tell you something to work on for the next one. It's just keeping that consistency with the process [that] will hopefully lead to the rest."
The Twins will have to be careful with their usage of Lopez down the stretch, especially if the team can stretch their lead in the AL Central. It would be great for him to reach the top-10 on the team's single-season strikeout list, but not at the cost of him being out of gas in October.
How many strikeouts can Lopez accumulate this season? How will you remember his first season in a Twins uniform? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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