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It takes a team effort to win in October, including strong starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and depth up-and-down the line-up. In recent years, the Twins front office made a conscious effort to add to the starting rotation, with none of the team’s top-four starters being drafted by the club. Instead, Minnesota has identified pitchers in other organizations with the potential to improve and helped them reach another level after joining the organization. Now it’s time to see how the front office’s pitching plan can work on baseball’s biggest stage.
Aces At The Top: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray
An argument can be made for the Twins to start either of their top two pitchers in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray in the second half, so it seems likely for the team to keep the same order heading into October. He has been a strikeout machine in 2023 by accumulating more strikeouts than any Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. He had an ERA north of 4.20 through June, but his 3.38 FIP suggested he was a little unlucky. Since July, Lopez has been one of baseball’s best pitchers with a 2.87 ERA and a 102-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 2/3 innings.
Lopez was the team’s Opening Day starter, and he will lead the starting rotation for multiple years in the future. The Twins have invested in Lopez, and they will hope he puts the team in a position to end its playoff losing streak.
Gray has been performing better than Lopez over the last month so the team might consider him for the Game 1 start. Gerrit Cole is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young, but Gray will likely finish in the top three as he ranks near the top of the AL in WAR, ERA, WHIP, and H/9. His most significant improvement has been with HR/9, where his 0.40 total is the AL’s best mark.
Over his last six starts (37 IP), he has posted a 1.46 ERA with a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If the Twins lose Game 1, there is no pitcher the club would rather have on the mound in an elimination game. He’s made four previous starts in the playoffs, but half of those were over a decade ago. Gray is heading to free agency at the season’s end and will want to make a solid final impression before hitting the open market.
Game 3 Starter: Joe Ryan
The Twins will have a decision to make when naming a starter for Game 3 of the Wild Card round between Ryan and Kenta Maeda. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half but hit a rough patch in the middle of the season when he tried to pitch through a groin injury. He has pitched well in six starts since returning from the IL with a 3.82 ERA and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30 2/3 innings. Maeda will be on the roster, but what if the Twins decide to use him in a relief role earlier in the series? It’s also interesting to consider the team using a piggyback situation for Game 3, with Ryan starting and Maeda relieving him out of the bullpen.
Starter Options for Other Rounds: Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Dallas Keuchel
The Twins will likely need at least three starters for their Wild Card series, which means one of these arms needs to be ready to start Game 1 of the ALDS. Maeda has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers in the second half, with a 3.60 ERA and a 71-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 65 innings. There’s a chance the Twins use Maeda out of the bullpen to survive the Wild Card round, which might push Ober into a Game 1 start.
Ober has already posted a career-high in innings pitched, so there has been some discussion about how much he has left in the tank. Minnesota demoted him earlier this month, and he was skipped two times in the rotation before making another start. The Twins have won both of his starts since he returned from Triple-A, and he has thrown five innings and allowed two earned runs in both starts. Keuchel is probably not seeing much October action, but the team can turn to him in a pinch if something happens to one of the other starters. He has allowed three runs or more in four of his eight appearances with the Twins.
The top of Minnesota’s rotation might be the strongest it has been for a postseason run in decades. It will take a team effort to make a long playoff run, but the rotation seems built for October success. How do you feel the team’s starting staff lines up for October? How do they compare to other starting staffs in the American League? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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