Unraveling Relief: Twins' Post-Deadline Bullpen Woes Exposed

[Adam Friedman]

As the August 1st trade deadline approached, the Twins needed to add at least one reliever to their thin bullpen. They had added Dylan Floro a week prior but needed more help than he could provide. Despite the seemingly obvious need, the front office decided to stand pat, not making a single deadline acquisition. 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

They rationalized this decision by saying that teams they expected to sell ended up changing plans. While that may have been true, they could have paid more for a player who was moved or enticed a team to move a player who was not traded by ramping up their offer. 

By not adding a reliever, the front office put their playoff hopes in the hands of a questionable group- especially in the back and middle of the bullpen. They put their trust in continued success from unproven pitchers, who had shown some promise, rather than just paying a bit of extra prospect capital. This decision has proved disastrous.

Since the deadline, the Twins bullpen ranks 28th in fWAR, 25th in ERA, and 28th in FIP. The Twins didn't sign a single major league free agent reliever and made just one trade for bullpen help in the Floro deal (while trading away another major league reliever) and are paying the price. Despite improved offensive performance, the bullpen's horrendous month of August has made it more difficult than necessary to pull away from the Guardians in the division. If they make the playoffs, it's hard to see them having a bullpen capable of making a playoff run. While Brock Stewart is trying to make a return early next month, that is far from a sure thing. They sure could've used additional help at the trade deadline. 

The Faltering Relievers
The Twins believed they could get sustained solid middle relief from many of Jordan Balazovic, Jovani Moran, and Caleb Thielbar. That calculation has proved more wrong than even skeptics would've believed. Just how bad has each of those options been since the deadline?

Balazovic only made five more appearances after the deadline. In those appearances, he pitched seven innings with a 7.71 ERA driven by a horrendous 6.43 K/9, matching an even worse 6.43 BB/9. Balzovic's success before the deadline was primarily smoke and mirrors, as he posted a minuscule 6.23 K/9 up to the deadline. He responded to their vote of confidence with a complete implosion. He is back up with the Twins, replacing the injured Oliver Ortega. 

Moran had been pitching regularly leading up to the deadline and not well. He made one final appearance after the deadline on August 6th, where his walk problem continued. He walked three in one inning (not giving up any runs), was promptly sent to AAA, and has yet to return.

Thielbar had been on the injured list since June 9th, when he was brought back on July 30th after dealing with an oblique strain. Until he went on the injured list, Thielbar was very effective with a 1.74 ERA, but he missed two months and is 36 years old, so relying on him by not getting bullpen help seemed questionable. The veteran lefty has yet to be his usual self since his return. His 3.24 ERA is fine, but he carries a 5.07 FIP and 4.71 x FIP, suggesting he's due for some negative regression- unless he starts pitching better. 

The front office put their faith in getting results internally when they made no additions at the trade deadline. That hasn't happened. They got decent performances from Floro before his calamitous (and reasonably unlucky) inning in Milwaukee, but they needed more. 

Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, and Emilio Pagán are the only three fairly reliable relievers at Rocco Baldelli's disposal right now, and that's just not good enough for a team trying to wrap up a division title and maybe even make a run in the playoffs. The front office put the team in this position, and when their weak bullpen hurts their chances to make the playoffs or, more likely, destroys their opportunities to make a playoff run, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.  

 

 

View full article

[pierre75275]

I wonder if the front office learned anything by not addressing the bullpen the past two years.

Wouldn't it be something if they went after Josh Hader in free agency? Can you imagine him and Jax and Duran and a possibly healthy Stewart in the back end of the bullpen.

Wow.

[terrydactyls]

Another article about the Twins not adding a reliever at the deadline.  Yawn.

[SwainZag]

11 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

I wonder if the front office learned anything by not addressing the bullpen the past two years.

Wouldn't it be something if they went after Josh Hader in free agency? Can you imagine him and Jax and Duran and a possibly healthy Stewart in the back end of the bullpen.

Wow.

I don't believe Hader ever hit free agency.   He was traded him Milwaukee to San Diego.   Then San Diego extended him on a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration.  

[USAFChief]

14 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I don't believe Hader ever hit free agency.   He was traded him Milwaukee to San Diego.   Then San Diego extended him on a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration.  

Pretty sure he meant next year.

[pierre75275]

57 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I don't believe Hader ever hit free agency.   He was traded him Milwaukee to San Diego.   Then San Diego extended him on a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration.  

I mean after this season ends and he is a free agent.

[LA Vikes Fan]

This article didn't age very well with Winder and Sands' performance the last 2 days. Still think he's right though. 

[BH67]

Bullpen depth problems? When has that ever happened for Falvine?

/s

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

How does this bullpen sound for the playoffs? Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Variland, Ober, Ryan, Floro,  Keuchel, Winder

[Brock Beauchamp]

Quote

Since the deadline, the Twins bullpen ranks 28th in fWAR, 25th in ERA, and 28th in FIP.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

How does this bullpen sound for the playoffs? Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Variland, Ober, Ryan, Floro,  Keuchel, Winder

It’s got 2-3 too many guys…..hoping for 7 man Pen in Playoffs……certainly a max of 8.

Once Cleveland “SOLD” Civale & Josh Bell the FO recognized the Division was pretty tough to lose. No need for knee jerk trades for a reliever that may or may not be effective.

We’ll need 4 guys in the rotation in October: Lopez-Gray-Maeda-Ober

7 guys for relief with the off days:

Ryan-Varland-Jax-Pagan…..Thielbar-Kuechel… Duran

Funderburk or Stewart are still possible contributors in the Pen.

We’ll piece it together for 33 more games & then it’s on. Assuming Varland will be moved into position for 2-3 appearances by September 20…..possible we could experiment with Kuechel in that same time range, late next month.

Need a tweak or two in the Pen during the off-season.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Another good bullpen arm at the deadline would have been nice, but we didn't get one, so we will make it work with what we have.  If they can get through the next couple of series without imploding, they will be in good shape for the division, so they can get by with the group they have.

Come playoff time, we add Ryan or Ober (depending on who starts) and move Keuchel the pen.  Either starter should play up big time, and Keuchel is weird enough that it may work well -- Lefty soft tosser, imagine bringing heat after him.  Possibly add Varland as well.  We would be well set for the playoffs - and that's without Stewart necessarily coming back. 

Go Twins!

[USAFChief]

"Since the deadline, the Twins bullpen ranks 28th in fWAR, 25th in ERA, and 28th in FIP."

 

Tonight should help push those numbers down a notch or two.

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

How does this bullpen sound for the playoffs? Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Variland, Ober, Ryan, Floro,  Keuchel, Winder

Pretty weak. 

 

[jimbo92107]

"The front office put the team in this position, and when their weak bullpen hurts their chances to make the playoffs or, more likely, destroys their opportunities to make a playoff run, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves."

Well, that's not necessarily true. I'll take the blame myself...but I'm gonna want some serious money up front, like a hundred dollars.

[Doctor Wu]

Looks like Brock Stewart may still make it back next month. A recent article gave Sep. 10 as a possible return.

https://www.twincities.com/2023/08/26/injured-twins-reliever-brock-stewart-hopes-for-return-around-sept-10/

 

[TopGunn#22]

If Joe Ryan looks to be pre-All Star Break Joe Ryan, he's in my starting rotation in the playoffs.  The guy who's had tremendous success being moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen in the postseason is Maeda.  If the Twins have Maeda and Keuchel in the BP for the playoffs they should have more certainty for performance and better production.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I pray DK doesn’t make the post season roster. 2.08 K9 and 4.85 ERA doesnt exactly scream bullpen Ace to me.

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Another article about the Twins not adding a reliever at the deadline.  Yawn.

How many bloggers they have will be the number of articles. 

[terrydactyls]

20 minutes ago, old nurse said:

How many bloggers they have will be the number of articles. 

So true (except for me and maybe you?).

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

"It’s got 2-3 too many guys…..hoping for 7 man Pen in Playoffs……certainly a max of 8."  - JD-TWINS

Well,  a 3 game playoff series is 3 starters.  I would be shocked if they carry fewer than 13 pitchers.  They certainly won't go with a 10 man staff, as your math suggests.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Looks like Brock Stewart may still make it back next month. A recent article gave Sep. 10 as a possible return.

https://www.twincities.com/2023/08/26/injured-twins-reliever-brock-stewart-hopes-for-return-around-sept-10/

 

I think it is pretty unrealistic to expect Stewart or Alcalá or Paddack to return from injury to solidify the 'pen, but that appears to be exactly what the front office is thinking. https://theathletic.com/4809140/2023/08/27/twins-brock-stewart/

The article gave more information on Alcalá than I've seen since he went on the IL. I know he's mostly been forgotten by the fan base, but it seems the Twins think he could help in September and October. The same for Paddack.

[Doctor Wu]

On 8/27/2023 at 10:26 PM, stringer bell said:

I think it is pretty unrealistic to expect Stewart or Alcalá or Paddack to return from injury to solidify the 'pen, but that appears to be exactly what the front office is thinking. https://theathletic.com/4809140/2023/08/27/twins-brock-stewart/

The article gave more information on Alcalá than I've seen since he went on the IL. I know he's mostly been forgotten by the fan base, but it seems the Twins think he could help in September and October. The same for Paddack.

Well, the clock is ticking! I think it would be more realistic to expect Stewart or Alcala to make a September appearance, but to my knowledge Paddack hasn't even thrown anywhere this year. But hey, any able arms are welcome at this point!