Unraveling Relief: Twins' Post-Deadline Bullpen Woes Exposed

They rationalized this decision by saying that teams they expected to sell ended up changing plans. While that may have been true, they could have paid more for a player who was moved or enticed a team to move a player who was not traded by ramping up their offer. 

By not adding a reliever, the front office put their playoff hopes in the hands of a questionable group- especially in the back and middle of the bullpen. They put their trust in continued success from unproven pitchers, who had shown some promise, rather than just paying a bit of extra prospect capital. This decision has proved disastrous.

Since the deadline, the Twins bullpen ranks 28th in fWAR, 25th in ERA, and 28th in FIP. The Twins didn't sign a single major league free agent reliever and made just one trade for bullpen help in the Floro deal (while trading away another major league reliever) and are paying the price. Despite improved offensive performance, the bullpen's horrendous month of August has made it more difficult than necessary to pull away from the Guardians in the division. If they make the playoffs, it's hard to see them having a bullpen capable of making a playoff run. While Brock Stewart is trying to make a return early next month, that is far from a sure thing. They sure could've used additional help at the trade deadline. 

The Faltering Relievers
The Twins believed they could get sustained solid middle relief from many of Jordan Balazovic, Jovani Moran, and Caleb Thielbar. That calculation has proved more wrong than even skeptics would've believed. Just how bad has each of those options been since the deadline?

Balazovic only made five more appearances after the deadline. In those appearances, he pitched seven innings with a 7.71 ERA driven by a horrendous 6.43 K/9, matching an even worse 6.43 BB/9. Balzovic's success before the deadline was primarily smoke and mirrors, as he posted a minuscule 6.23 K/9 up to the deadline. He responded to their vote of confidence with a complete implosion. He is back up with the Twins, replacing the injured Oliver Ortega. 

Moran had been pitching regularly leading up to the deadline and not well. He made one final appearance after the deadline on August 6th, where his walk problem continued. He walked three in one inning (not giving up any runs), was promptly sent to AAA, and has yet to return.

Thielbar had been on the injured list since June 9th, when he was brought back on July 30th after dealing with an oblique strain. Until he went on the injured list, Thielbar was very effective with a 1.74 ERA, but he missed two months and is 36 years old, so relying on him by not getting bullpen help seemed questionable. The veteran lefty has yet to be his usual self since his return. His 3.24 ERA is fine, but he carries a 5.07 FIP and 4.71 x FIP, suggesting he's due for some negative regression- unless he starts pitching better. 

The front office put their faith in getting results internally when they made no additions at the trade deadline. That hasn't happened. They got decent performances from Floro before his calamitous (and reasonably unlucky) inning in Milwaukee, but they needed more. 

Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, and Emilio Pagán are the only three fairly reliable relievers at Rocco Baldelli's disposal right now, and that's just not good enough for a team trying to wrap up a division title and maybe even make a run in the playoffs. The front office put the team in this position, and when their weak bullpen hurts their chances to make the playoffs or, more likely, destroys their opportunities to make a playoff run, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.