Ohtani UCL Tear

[Richie the Rally Goat]

what a shame!
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-has-tear-in-ucl?partnerId=zh-20230824-1011726-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230824-1011726-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=L5Z0v8VRZ9Zl2dkDaKjVn4zHllnPqvvvWLBycyIc38dLJlj35t%2FlZWQjX6EcRW7E&bt_ts=1692880874719

[Doctor Wu]

What does an injury like that mean for his status as a pitcher next year? Obviously, not good timing for him going into free agency, but at least he can still hit. 

[Dave Borton]

Tragic, both personally as an injury and to the diminished contract coming up this winter.

"But if he has to undergo a second Tommy John surgery, which has a much lower success rate than a first operation..." (From Bollinger's MLB article.)

A nickel's worth of reading on 2nd TJ surgery shows a mixed bag of results w/Evoladi's success being held up as a high performing outlier.

 

 

[DJL44]

It was really fun while it lasted.

[gunnarthor]

Darn

[Unwinder]

Bad for baseball.

[Jocko87]

Damn. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

And that is why you don't spend 500 mil plus on a pitcher even if its Ohtani.  

[Trov]

This will be interesting to see how it affects his FA situation.  He still will be able to hit, but will he get the mega deal we expected, or will it be shorter term deal, or maybe one with incentives based on innings pitched each season. 

[CRF]

It sucks! Because he's on one of my fantasy teams! OUCH! Seriously, they're going to wear that poor guy out. The human body can only take so much. I know he's said that he wants to pitch and bat, but he might have to give up the pitching part, and just hit. He probably won't be the same pitcher anymore after the 2nd TJ, but who knows? It's really a shame he blew his elbow out again. 

[big dog]

Do the Angels still give him a qualifying offer? A lot of money for a one-year contract to do rehab, if no other team takes a chance? A good shot at a draft pick, but a lot riskier than it would have been two years ago.

[Mike Sixel]

Sucks. Big time sucks. 

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, big dog said:

Do the Angels still give him a qualifying offer? A lot of money for a one-year contract to do rehab, if no other team takes a chance? A good shot at a draft pick, but a lot riskier than it would have been two years ago.

Even as "just" a hitter Ohtani is worth a QO. Harper had the surgery after the WS last year and was back on May 2nd and Ohtani was back as a DH by May 7th the season after his first TJ surgery.

LA is 12 GB in their division and 10.5 GB in the wild card. With Trout headed back to the IL and all the other injuries, I think Ohtani will be shut down in the next week or so, depending on the next MRI results, and have the surgery so he's ready early next season.

Yes the timing is bad for his checkbook, but he will still sign a $350 - $400 MM contract either this off-season or next.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll be shocked if he gets more than $200 MM at this point. I'm guessing a 1 or 2 year make good deal, then a longer deal.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if he gets more than $200 MM at this point. I'm guessing a 1 or 2 year make good deal, then a longer deal.

who is even going to give him a 1 year deal?  Only makes since on a 2-4 year deal.  

[USAFChief]

The Angels had him in as DH for the second game AFTER the diagnosis. 

Seems pretty sketchy, no?

Anywhoo, what a shame. 

[DJL44]

He's a career 150 OPS+ hitter who is athletic enough to play the outfield if his pitching career is over. His downside is Bryce Harper.

[LastOnePicked]

"Mr. Ohtani, there's a message from a Derek Falvey. He says he's got a few thoughts about a rehab contract he'd like to discuss with you in November."

[Shaitan]

Bad news for him and I don't want to make light of his pain.

Now the but...

That's why you don't give gigantic, long-term contracts to pitchers (and without fact checking, I feel there's some data out there about pitchers with experience in Japanese league). Way too big a risk. Imagine the hubbub if this wasn't diagnosed until next April in Spring Training on a new team.

[Jocko87]

54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's a career 150 OPS+ hitter who is athletic enough to play the outfield if his pitching career is over. His downside is Bryce Harper.

That's not a bad down side. Worst case he would be a gold glove 1st baseman also.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if he gets more than $200 MM at this point. I'm guessing a 1 or 2 year make good deal, then a longer deal.

Just as a hitter FanGraphs has him at 6.3 fWAR, which is worth $50.2 MM. As a pitcher FanGraphs has him at 2.3 fWAR, which is worth $18.7 MM. If he can't pitch moving forward but learns a position such as 1B, that batting value goes up. 

As a pitcher/DH, he is worth a $500 MM contract. As a DH/possible 1B, he easily worth $350 - $400 MM. 

[big dog]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The Angels had him in as DH for the second game AFTER the diagnosis. 

Seems pretty sketchy, no?

Anywhoo, what a shame. 

Reports today are that he plans to continue as a DH for the rest of the year. I have no idea if a UCL tear prevents you from swinging a bat well, or if swinging a bat would make it worse. I certainly wouldn't take for granted that there were no medical concerns.

Ken Rosenthal's column in the Athletic this afternoons argues that he should still get at least $500 million, just as an offensive player. Hmmm...

[Mike Sixel]

All reports I read is that he's still getting a massive deal, even if he's not pitching. I've rethought my position, and agree, he'll get it 

[Beast]

He’ll still get a great deal.  No question.  But, it certainly won’t be as large as it could have been.

He’s an ace level starter.  That’s now gone for a year.  Maybe in question for another. Premier starting pitchers run up to $40M per year these days.  

TJ is more commonplace than a death sentence these days.  But there’s a failure rate for any medical procedure.  We’ve seen multiple instances of lengthy recovery, even reinjury, from TJ here.  On top of that risk, this is uncharted territory.  How does a guy rehab TJ while trying to be the best hitter in baseball?  Is it even possible to come back and be an elite pitcher before the end of 2025 without dedicating 100% of your training time?  Can he still hit at the same level through this process?

This is a huge deal in negotiations. No matter what his agent runs out there through Rosenthal.

I do think his international stardom mitigates it quite a bit.  He’s one player that immediately opens up a whole new market/fan base.  He’s also become one of the most recognizable stars across markets in the US.  He’s currently one of the most marketable athletes in the world, in any sport.  That has a ton of value.  But, that was there before the injury.

I’m interested how it plays out.  But, holy cow.  What a disaster for the Angels.  

 

[ewen21]

On 8/24/2023 at 10:45 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

And that is why you don't spend 500 mil plus on a pitcher even if its Ohtani.  

In this economy there should be no reason to hand an athlete (any athlete) 500 million dollars in guaranteed money.  If you want to load up a contract with incentives then have at it.  

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

In this economy there should be no reason to hand an athlete (any athlete) 500 million dollars in guaranteed money.  If you want to load up a contract with incentives then have at it.  

"hand" as if the athletes don't somehow deserve the money more than owners?

[ewen21]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

"hand" as if the athletes don't somehow deserve the money more than owners?

Saying the players make way too much guaranteed money in no way requires me to defend the owners.  The salaries are ridiculous.  The cost of everything baseball is out of hand.    

 

The owners don't make guaranteed money and they incur the risk.  A guy like Patrick Corbin can suddenly bite the big one and be historically BAD and still make roughly 25 million dollars a year?  

 

Yeah,  Let's agree to disagree

[Hosken Bombo Disco]