Will the Twins Have Two Top-5 National Prospects by 2025?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's farm system has ranked in the middle of the pack in recent years because of prospect graduations and trades. Will two budding stars push the Twins back into the conversation for one of the game's best farm systems?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Evaluating prospects has become ingrained in fans' evaluation of a team. It's easy to point at organizations like the Baltimore Orioles or Houston Astros that went into full rebuild mode to restock the farm system with the promise of better long-term outcomes. However, there are plenty of examples of teams who get caught in rebuild mode without ever having sustained success at the big-league level. Dreaming of the future can be fun for fans, but there are no guarantees that prospects will ever pan out. 

According to MLB.com, the Twins' farm system was moderately helped by jumping up to the fifth overall pick in MLB's first Draft Lottery. The 2023 MLB Draft was widely considered a five-player draft with a quintet of elite players sitting at the top of draft boards. Minnesota's farm system moved up two spots from 19th to 17th overall in MLB Pipeline's reranking of farm systems following the draft. Since 2021, this is the highest the Twins farm system has ranked, with the club's lowest ranking being 23rd (2022 midseason rank). 

Currently, the Twins have two prospects that rank among baseball's top 30, and an argument can be made for either to be the team's top overall prospect. Brooks Lee has remained at the top of the Twins Daily prospect rankings even after the team drafted Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick. Lee was recently promoted to Triple-A and has a chance to debut in the next calendar year, so it's expected for him to graduate from the team's prospect rankings by 2025. Instead, the team's top prospects project to be among baseball's best. 

Jonathan Mayo, one of MLB.com's prospect writers, believes the Twins will have two of baseball's top five prospects by 2025. Walker Jenkins is only a handful of games into his professional career, but many national outlets already rank him as a top-20 prospect. In his first nine professional games, he went 13-for-38 (.342 BA) with two doubles, one triple, and two home runs. Also, he's gone 3-for-4 in steal attempts and limited himself to six strikeouts. There is certainly a lot of pressure on high draft picks to perform in their first taste of professional baseball, and Jenkins has passed the first test. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez joins Lee and Jenkins in most national top-100 rankings and can potentially be a top-5 prospect by 2025. He's spent his age-20 season at High-A, where he has hit .228/.391/.443 (.834) with seven doubles, five triples, and 15 home runs in 81 games. After a slow start, Rodriguez has found his power stroke in August with four home runs and a .962 OPS in 12 games to start the month. For the second straight season, he is over two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. In over 370 plate appearances, he has only faced a younger pitcher in two at-bats.  

The Twins have other prospects that will be among the team's top prospects by 2025. Marco Raya, one of the team's top pitching prospects, is pitching at Double-A in his age-20 season. Connor Prielipp will miss most of the 2024 season after having his second UCL procedure in three seasons on his left arm. He should be back to full strength by 2025 and working his way back into the team's top prospect conversation. Charlee Soto, the team's 2023 competitive balance pick, has yet to make his professional debut and might be the team's top pitching prospect by 2025. Brandon Winokur has been in the same FCL Twins line-ups with Jenkins and is off to a hot start. It will be interesting to see how these two players push each other as they club the organizational ladder. 

Few top Twins prospects have had a clear runway at the big-league level because injuries have impacted players, including Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin. Prospect development only sometimes follows a linear path, and other hiccups can occur with a player's performance from top prospect to MLB contributor. Jenkins and Rodriguez have two of the highest ceilings of any prospects coming through the Twins system in quite some time, and it's exciting to project what the team's farm system can look like in two years. 

Will the Twins have two of baseball's top five prospects by 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

In a perfect (for TC) world Lee and Rodriguez are ripping MLB up in '24 along with Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Wallner.  My baseball dream.

[FlyingFinn]

I've got Lee with the Twins in 2024, thus losing his prospect status, so it would have to be Jenkins and E-Rod, and I don't think E-rod will rise quite that high.

[Brandon]

I’m more interested in seeing who else joins the climb to become a top prospect.  Whether or not they join the top 100 list.

[Jocko87]

45 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

In a perfect (for TC) world Lee and Rodriguez are ripping MLB up in '24 along with Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Wallner.  My baseball dream.

Possible, E-Rod is quite the longshot though.  Do they all have to be on the same team?

These prospect list rankings are interesting and they can be as varied as every evaluator will be slightly different in what they value.  The end game is the same though, how many can you develop to the big club and there are only so many slots.  Like everything else in baseball, the hindsight is the only true evaluation but these discussions are fun. 

Obviously the Orioles are going to be close to the top because so many of their prospects look like they will be impact players in the majors.  That adds up, but if the Twins get the same number of impact players out of their system which was was better?  Julien wasn't exactly a hot prospect until last week, but he can be an impact player.  A Julien gets no attention in the Orioles system and probably doesn't get the same development chance being behind so many guys. 

The Twins and their good drafting fortune the last two years could have 7-8 major contributors from the farm system in no time.  There won't be room for everyone but 2026 could easily feature Lee, Lewis, Jenkins, E-Rod, Kirilloff, Ober, Varland and Buxton as drafted successes.  Insert one of Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien etc as you see fit.  I would also count Duran, Martin, SWR etc if they make it as farm system successes as they were prospect trades.

These ranks are interesting but ultimately mean very little.  The money is made on picking the right ones to keep and developing them once you have them in the building.  Developing an 18th round pick into something that can be traded for a legit starting pitcher is a huge win. 

[Dman]

I don't know getting to top 5 on a top 100 list is really hard to do.  I am not sure Lee would ever even make it there as the player has to be tooled up and considered special to make top 5.  Even Jenkins who has the best chance to make sense at a top 5 candidate would have a hard time as 4 players from his own draft were selected ahead of him and they all are doing just as well or better than he is right now.  I just don't see one let alone two guys making it to top 5 status.  Maybe top 10 or 20 but top 5 is tough to crack IMO.

That being said top 100 rankings are fun and a way to identify top players but not the be all end all for elite players.  Arraez is a good example of that.  Can't get too caught up in farm rankings as rating players is so subjective.  It feels like the Twins have been good at getting the most out of lower drafted players but have had issues finding elite players that work out.  It feels like the current farm is light on those types of players which is why the Twins are middle of the pack.  Hopefully guys like Winokur or Soto or De Andrade or some of those International signings find a way to excel beyond expectation's and move up into those top 100 lists. I am not worried about top 5 just getting elite talent to the MLB club.

[weitz41]

3 of the top 25 by mid-season 2024 I could see. Lee getting promoted to MLB and E rod in AA with an .800-.900 OPS. That's if everything goes right. If you're a Twins fan you know how often that has happened.

Cherry picking there's a chance Cory Lewis and/or CJ Culpepper make their way into the conversation as top 50 prospects. Don't sleep on De Andrade either. Other than Jenkins that doesn't even include the 2023 draft. 

Lots to like on the farm. It's not 2017 when Nick Gordon was our top prospect and 2-10 more or less washed out. 

[DocBauer]

Tend to agree with Dman on lack of "elite" prospects. But honestly, I'm not sure how you define what an "elite" prospect really is. What's the ranking system?  He has to be 60 or higher on 3 categories? 4? Is is just opinion, similar to, "I know it when I see it?" Has to be a consensus top 5/10/15/20?

I believe Buxton was considered elite. I believe Lewis would be considered elite. Top 5 or not, I'd dare to say Lee is an elite prospect based on projection and how well he's done and advanced in about 13 months. 

Rodriguez avoids the injury but, raises his BA a little bit, cuts the K's a little bit, yeah, I could easily see him being an elite prospect. I'm not going to project that for a rookie like Jenkins who has a couple weeks in a pro career, but considering the tools he's got, and his ranking pre-draft, I could see him "elite" in a couple of years.

As mentioned, Arraez never ranked high on prospect lists. But he's one of the top AVG and OB bats in the league, with some XB pop, and just flat out hits better than almost anyone. He's pretty special, if not elite. But he sure wasn't elite coming through the minors. The faster, more powerful Julien is a somewhat similar player to Arraez when you talk about lower rankings but some potentially elite potential with the bat. I'm not calling him elite in any way, but if Wallner can keep hitting in the .240-250 area with a .340-ish OB and that huge power and arm, he's a younger, better version of Gallo with the bat at least. I guess you'd call him "very good" at that point?

So I'm just not sure how you call someone "elite". But I think we've had a couple of guys the last few years, and a couple who might be. I can also see a handful that easily fit in the "very good" category. And when the nucleus of your team is in the process of changing over to younger almost everywhere, prospect rankings are going to be in flux as guys graduate and a couple more get added and develop. I'll take a couple elite young players and a bunch of very good ones to build my team. Without going too deep in to names and possibles, I think that's where the Twins are right now.

[gman]

I think possibly that Jenkins could make the top 5, but I don't think we have anyone else who would still be in the minors too long if they were a top 5 prospect. I hope for a constant 5 players in the top 50-60 range. If they are working their way through the system ranked that high, then the team should have plenty of consistent talent available for the big league team. By the end of next year I would like us to have 2-3 pitchers working their way up the top 100 list, although I don't see who that could be due to injuries.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am not going to get too excited about any of these guys until after they return from ACL and/or Tommy John surgery.  We all know it is going to happen to them at some point...

Welcome to Minnesota Professional Sports Fandom...

[jkcarew]

You mean, like Buxton and Sano were??

I’d rather they just improve over time.

Fwiw…I’m hoping Lee is not a prospect in 2025.

[TwinsDr2021]

The Answer to the question in the title of the article is no. Currently at MLB and other sites none of the top 5 prospects are older than 21. So most of the players mentioned in this article will be too old to be considered top 5 prospects except Jenkins. With that said maybe an Acuna or some other young guy has a crazy good year next year and jumps some levels and gets his name into the conversation, but even then top 5 is pretty unlikely.

[Trov]

18 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know getting to top 5 on a top 100 list is really hard to do.  I am not sure Lee would ever even make it there as the player has to be tooled up and considered special to make top 5.  Even Jenkins who has the best chance to make sense at a top 5 candidate would have a hard time as 4 players from his own draft were selected ahead of him and they all are doing just as well or better than he is right now.  I just don't see one let alone two guys making it to top 5 status.  Maybe top 10 or 20 but top 5 is tough to crack IMO.

That being said top 100 rankings are fun and a way to identify top players but not the be all end all for elite players.  Arraez is a good example of that.  Can't get too caught up in farm rankings as rating players is so subjective.  It feels like the Twins have been good at getting the most out of lower drafted players but have had issues finding elite players that work out.  It feels like the current farm is light on those types of players which is why the Twins are middle of the pack.  Hopefully guys like Winokur or Soto or De Andrade or some of those International signings find a way to excel beyond expectation's and move up into those top 100 lists. I am not worried about top 5 just getting elite talent to the MLB club.

Keep in mind 3 of the guys drafted ahead of Jenkins are college guys, of which they all will likely lose their prospect status before Jenkins even makes Majors, unless Jenkins just goes ham next year.  Skene was mentioned if needed could have just went right to majors, only reason he will be held back is that Pirates may want to control him longer.  

That is the thing with rankings too is as guys fall off others move up, and sometimes the top whatever are a lot weaker top whatever because the top say 5 to 10 all moved off the list, so a guy that was say top 20 now may be a top 10 but did nothing to move up other than no get worse. 

[Dman]

49 minutes ago, Trov said:

Keep in mind 3 of the guys drafted ahead of Jenkins are college guys, of which they all will likely lose their prospect status before Jenkins even makes Majors, unless Jenkins just goes ham next year.  Skene was mentioned if needed could have just went right to majors, only reason he will be held back is that Pirates may want to control him longer.  

That is the thing with rankings too is as guys fall off others move up, and sometimes the top whatever are a lot weaker top whatever because the top say 5 to 10 all moved off the list, so a guy that was say top 20 now may be a top 10 but did nothing to move up other than no get worse. 

I do agree that those college bats are likely to move quickly to the majors as they both look like generational bats at this point. As you said Skenes can probably play in MLB right now but likely slow played to some degree to add innings and make sure he is ready for a starters load.

Still, you also have to keep in mind that 2022 had a lot of high drafted high school players in Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Collier and Williams.  Also Next year will have other players up for top 5.  Not saying Jenkins can't be one of the best 5 just that it is really hard to do as those spots are given to elite talents so performance is key to get into and stay in the top 5. 

You never know when a relatively unknown international player is going to breakout and move up ala Chourio or Salas.  It takes a lot to be top 5 but again I will agree unless super young,  guys that are in those spots generally don't stay long as they are valuable assets at the MLB level as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I would be a little surprised if the Twins had two top 5 prospects any time soon, but I’m not sure I really care about it much.  If you knew those guys would turn into Mike Trout, by all means I would love to have them, but they also sometimes turn into Miguel Sano (ineffective) and Byron Buxton (injured, a lot).  I think it is a better option to have many more players in the top 100 because there is not some great chasm of ability levels between #5 and #50 or #100.  Given the choice of two players in the top five and 10 players all ranked between 80 and 100, I would gladly take the latter.  Many more chances at someone (or multiple someone’s) being really great. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I would be a little surprised if the Twins had two top 5 prospects any time soon, but I’m not sure I really care about it much.  If you knew those guys would turn into Mike Trout, by all means I would love to have them, but they also sometimes turn into Miguel Sano (ineffective) and Byron Buxton (injured, a lot).  I think it is a better option to have many more players in the top 100 because there is not some great chasm of ability levels between #5 and #50 or #100.  Given the choice of two players in the top five and 10 players all ranked between 80 and 100, I would gladly take the latter.  Many more chances at someone (or multiple someone’s) being really great. 

Exactly!  Rankings are just fuel for debate.  I would rather see St. Paul and Wichita win their leagues' titles by large margins every year.

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Exactly!  Rankings are just fuel for debate.  I would rather see St. Paul and Wichita win their leagues' titles by large margins every year.

So are you saying you prefer the idea of having a AA and AAA team full of older non-prospects and winning, then having a bunch of stud young guys and not winning as much?

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, jkcarew said:

You mean, like Buxton and Sano were??

I’d rather they just improve over time.

Fwiw…I’m hoping Lee is not a prospect in 2025

Since the Twins moved to MN, Buxton is in top 15 players all time in WAR with a legit shot at top 5, Top 25-30 if you included the old Senators. Yes gosh forbid a draft pick turn out like that. Or a minor league player after 8 years ends up with a career OPS of .808 and OPS+ of 116.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Since the Twins moved to MN, Buxton is in top 15 players all time in WAR with a legit shot at top 5, Top 25-30 if you included the old Senators. Yes gosh forbid a draft pick turn out like that. Or a minor league player after 8 years ends up with a career OPS of .808 and OPS+ of 116.

Yes, Buxton’s been great defensively…and that’s where a very big chunk of his WAR has come from…a flawed defensive component of the metric. He is a slightly above average offensive player (less this year, and always oscillating between great and horrible)…which is a far cry from what expectations were. And he never comes close to playing full seasons.

If you want to consider him a top 15 Twin in terms of actual accomplishments on the field…that’s your opinion.

To me, he’s not close to that. And I hope for better things from Lee and Jenkins….mainly, as my post stated, that they can take their current talent (which is absolutely less than Buxton started with)…and consistently BUILD on that, which Buxton and Sano never did…whatever the reasons.

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So are you saying you prefer the idea of having a AA and AAA team full of older non-prospects and winning, then having a bunch of stud young guys and not winning as much?

Never said that or even thought that.  I just said that I would prefer the farm teams be very good over having some prospects highly ranked by some "experts".

[twinstalker]

EmRod won't be close to a top five prospect.  First, these are guys who are generally new...you don't become top five in your fifth minor league season.  To be top five, you have to destroy the minors.  EmRod is very mixed in his results, he's moving up one level per year, and his strikeout rate is outrageous.  Top five guys are the ones who are without a doubt special, even as many of them fail to pan out.

Jenkins could be a guy who gets top five (he's already top twenty, I think).  The problem is his competition.  Not only will the four guys drafted ahead of him get the same consideration (though Skenes might not qualify for 2025), all the current guys already in line will be inching toward that.  The Twins would have a role in this, too, I would think.  Jenkins will be viewed as a better prospect if he's promoted aggressively and still hits.  If he somehow gets to AA next year after breezing through A and A+, he's got a great chance.

Just based on this year, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Jenkins and EmRod end next year at AA.  Twins won't have to protect Jenkins until after the 2027 season, I believe.  EmRod I believe has to be protected this offseason.