The Weight of Expectations

[Matt Braun]

Or: why the Twins have recently felt like a chore. 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

My favorite recent Twins team is the 2017 squad. They weren’t all that special. No one outside of Minnesota remembers them much. But, to me, they represented something whimsical and blithe.

Heading into 2017, the Twins were on an extended streak of missing the playoffs, with their brief foray into October baseball in 2010 standing as their most recent trip to the postseason. They were swept by the Yankees that year. So it goes. This year (2017) didn’t look like it was going to go any better; the previous team lost over 100 games. Terry Ryan was relieved of his duties in July. 

But, somehow, the 2017 Twins played steady, winning baseball, and appeared to be a classic Wild Card team. There was the bizarre one-start stint of Jaime García—and Brandon Kintzler found himself a National before the year was over—but the team gritted through the movements, turning in a monstrous 20-10 August to help carry them to a playoff spot. 

I don’t have to talk about the playoff game. And I don’t want to talk about the playoff game. I think it’s best left at that. 

What made that team memorable wasn’t how great they were—the 2019 team absolutely blew them out of the water, and they were only four games above .500, after all—but, rather, their innocence was touching in an enlightened way. They shouldn’t have been there. The team was awful the previous year. They sold at the deadline. And yet, somehow, they relied on each other and rallied, churning out winning baseball through themselves. They won with Bartolo Colon and Alan Busenitz. With Buddy Boshers and Dillon Gee. They were plucky.

The Twins made the playoffs again in 2019 and 2020. Those teams were good enough to claim division titles—which is where the problems start.

Because no one expected the 2017 team to be much of anything, there was an authentic appreciation for their efforts, an understanding that this David may have a shot against the Goliaths they faced on their journey. Losses were understandable; they happen to even the best teams. But wins were magic, or as close as you can get. It was visceral and palpable when Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton blasted walk off homers on back-to-back nights. 

Once the team established themselves as good, things changed. Wins are expected; losses are shamed. Winning was simply what was supposed to happen, what the team needed to accomplish. And—when the wins dried up—toxicity boiled over.

The last three years have been a drag. I suppose that could relate to more than just baseball, but it’s especially true for Minnesota. Since the Twins have failed to reach those division heights years ago, those unmet expectations soured and stunk, often reaching a terminal nuclear state when the most unacceptable events happen (the team sometimes doesn’t win). Losses to the Tigers require sacrifice. A sweep at the hands of the Royals requires blood. The team did nothing at the deadline, and people were ready to storm Target Field as if they were the mob looking for Frankenstein. 

It all changes the lens people look at the team through, and it probably won’t change soon. Correa and Buxton are locked up long term; with so much money attached to those two players, the team will do everything in their power—all their might can handle—to ensure the Twins play competitive, winning baseball. None of it will be very fun, unfortunately. Unless a repetition of 2019 comes, normal, cromulent baseball will stand as sin and the team won’t be able to show the common traits of a good, not great, ballclub without inciting a riot. 

The 2023 Twins are probably about as good as the 2017 Twins, but the two elicit much different emotions. While those old Twins—so young and pure—may coax wonderful memories, the Twins of this year are yelled at and beaten, treated like an obedient pet under a cruel owner. The quality isn’t much different, but the expectations are—and that’s where the trouble begins.

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[mikelink45]

Nice writing.  Yes, they raised expectations and being a fan is all about expectations.  But this team has not been fun either - with the exception of Willi Castro who came out of nowhere.  No Turtle, no Colon - just very well paid stars who forgot how to be stars.  We are so desperate for inspiration that we get excited with Byron Buxton walks through centerfield.

The young players have been the breathe of fresh air we need - especially Julien and Wallner, but the injuries to Lewis and then to Kiriloff remind us of how fragile they are.

And Balazovic, Sands, Winder remind us of their greatest flaws.

[Brett]

It seems like the players the Twins invest heavily in never provide the return that the fans expect. And injuries seem to plague most of the young players that generate the most hype. I don’t need to name names, because you’ve already done so in your head.

What bothers me is the Twins have to manage these players through these situations with days off and convenient stretches on the injury list. Where are the guys you can plug into the lineup 150 games a year?

[twinfan]

It's always nice when a team that is not expected to do much becomes a surprise and players you didn't expect to do much have good years. I'm surprised your favorite team wasn't when we went from last one year to champs the next year. THAT was great. This year's team was expected to be competitive for the Central division title but wasn't picked by many to beat Cleveland  or even the White Sox. I think the over/under was around 78 and we are on pace to top that. 

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, twinfan said:

It's always nice when a team that is not expected to do much becomes a surprise and players you didn't expect to do much have good years. I'm surprised your favorite team wasn't when we went from last one year to champs the next year. THAT was great. This year's team was expected to be competitive for the Central division title but wasn't picked by many to beat Cleveland  or even the White Sox. I think the over/under was around 78 and we are on pace to top that. 

Because of the expectations they cannot be a surprise but they are certainly capable of being a disappointment.. which plays right into psychology of the Minnesota Professional Sports Fan.

[Karbo]

This team was put together to hit HR's. That is the way this FO wants to play. A few GOOD on base type guys would really help. And the K's are down right embarrassing to watch!

[Otaknam]

It’s hard to get too excited about this team. They are not an underdog, but rather are under achievers. They win three then lose three. Win two and get swept by the dregs of the league. They have underperformed offensive expectations because of Correa’s and Buxton’s dismal seasons. And of course Buxton will end up missing at least a third of the season again. So despite his large contract he really cannot be counted on in the future. The pitching has been good enough to keep them in first in the lowly Central Division. I keep hoping they will get on a roll but it hasn’t happened yet. 

[Vanimal46]

I’m going to call a spade a spade. There are certain TD writers who have given it every effort they have to raise expectations because they’re such homers about the Twins. It’s not even objective writing anymore. It’s just a fantasy land about the 2023 Twins being “Built for October”, Sonny Gray being a Cy Young favorite, and Royce Lewis/Ed Julien being superstars.

This team right before opening day had an over/under of 81.5 wins. This is what they’ve always been. A middling .500 team. There were no expectations of being great. And now every team in the division has decided to quit so we will win the AL Central by default  

 

[FanFromPhilly]

Good article and I completely agree that this team is no fun to watch.  I don't think I've ever turned off so many games when they were winning.

[chinmusic]

Could be worse. Imagine being a fan of the Padres this year, or heaven forbid, the Mets. Now that's demoralizing.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

It’s hard to get too excited about this team. They are not an underdog, but rather are under achievers. They win three then lose three. Win two and get swept by the dregs of the league. They have underperformed offensive expectations because of Correa’s and Buxton’s dismal seasons. And of course Buxton will end up missing at least a third of the season again. So despite his large contract he really cannot be counted on in the future. The pitching has been good enough to keep them in first in the lowly Central Division. I keep hoping they will get on a roll but it hasn’t happened yet. 

There is no future where Buxton is a meaningful contributor unless he is healthy enough to play CF.

[Parfigliano]

16 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

Could be worse. Imagine being a fan of the Padres this year, or heaven forbid, the Mets. Now that's demoralizing.

Mets have always been my NL team.  They are what I expected.

[mikelink45]

Just reflecting on the FO moves -

Gallo, Buxton, Correa - their big three position moves

Mahle, Lopez, Floro/Lopez, Gray, Paddock their pitching moves, 

What is the percent of success at this time in this season?

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, FanFromPhilly said:

Good article and I completely agree that this team is no fun to watch. 

For the hitters, I completely agree. They are infuriating with a runner on third and no outs. They strike out so much that they are the worst in baseball at getting that runner home. 

The starting pitching is a joy to watch (for me, listen to most of the time).

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

ust reflecting on the FO moves -

Gallo, Buxton, Correa - their big three position moves

Mahle, Lopez, Floro/Lopez, Gray, Paddock their pitching moves, 

What is the percent of success at this time in this season?

Could add Vasquez to that as well (I think he's okay, just not worth quite that much money). But I would have made the Buxton, Correa, Mahle, Lopez, Gray, and maybe Floro/Lopez (knowing some of the personal background) moves.

But to balance this out what about the good moves - Castro, Taylor, Farmer, Ryan, Duran, Maeda. Keeping Jax last year, Kepler and Pagan this year when I was ready to move on. And the non-moves that many wanted - signing/trading for Rodon, Montas, etc.

[Parfigliano]

18 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Could add Vasquez to that as well (I think he's okay, just not worth quite that much money). But I would have made the Buxton, Correa, Mahle, Lopez, Gray, and maybe Floro/Lopez (knowing some of the personal background) moves.

But to balance this out what about the good moves - Castro, Taylor, Farmer, Ryan, Duran, Maeda. Keeping Jax last year, Kepler and Pagan this year when I was ready to move on. And the non-moves that many wanted - signing/trading for Rodon, Montas, etc.

Imagine the pit they would be in with either Rodon or Montas.

[Peter]

First place is first place!!! Doesn’t matter about division. I’ll take it! This is only beginning as once our draft picks come in twins will be set for years!!! Not if but home many World Series championship’s we win. Future looks great for twins!!!

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Could add Vasquez to that as well (I think he's okay, just not worth quite that much money). But I would have made the Buxton, Correa, Mahle, Lopez, Gray, and maybe Floro/Lopez (knowing some of the personal background) moves.

But to balance this out what about the good moves - Castro, Taylor, Farmer, Ryan, Duran, Maeda. Keeping Jax last year, Kepler and Pagan this year when I was ready to move on. And the non-moves that many wanted - signing/trading for Rodon, Montas, etc.

I agree with your comments - although Pagan if 50/50 after last year.  Farmer is okay, but not what we expected - I am neutral on him, much higher on Solano. Non-moves are hard to judge since we have no idea how close or realistic things were.  As you might note - I did not make a judgment or give a grade, I just raised the question and we should always reflect on results.  

Of course the counterpart is to look at Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Wells, Cano, Petty, and others we moved out.  It is a multi-dimensional configuration. 

[LastOnePicked]

I loved this article. Beautiful article. I loved it. though, to my core, I disagree with a large part of its premise.

No fans are storming Target Field with pitchforks. Players aren't being harassed. Even the comment boards here are pretty tame, pretty reasonable by the standards of most fandoms.

But you're right - many of us have higher expectations than we did in 2017, and a lower tolerance for continued failures. And do you know what? We should. It's been an ungodly stretch since the Twins have had playoff success. Teams that we used to comfort ourselves with have won playoff games, World Series titles and have bright futures ahead. What's worse is that the competition in this division is absolutely tepid, meaning that's there's almost no reason why this team shouldn't set its sights a bit higher than AL Central also-ran.

Winning isn't just a W in a sports column. Winning inspires stories. It brings families together. It makes life a little more dramatic and exciting. My father is fading away. My time with him in 1987 and 1991 was precious and priceless. No, I didn't grow up to expect World Series titles every few years, and I still don't fault the organization for failing to win it all. I do, however, fault them for winning nothing. And worse, for instilling what seems to be a culture where losing isn't all that bothersome. There is an entire generation of children and parents who love baseball in MN who deserve a chance to get behind a juggernaut, and they deserve vibrant postseason memories, too.

All that said, here's where I agree. I loved the 2017 team. I loved the promise of the farm system, and the resilience on the field. They were, to put it in Peanuts terms, a very sincere pumpkin patch.

And I'm okay with the Twins becoming that again. I've said multiple times here that if we're only going to languish with costly veterans and mid-range prospects, then deal me in for a rebuild. I'd happily watch a very sincere team gel around shared adversity and a few rising superstars. Yes, it would push the playoff success clock hands back a bit, but could increase the chance of a better brand of baseball and a better chance at building a legitimate contender.

But we are where we are - fans of an odd team that on some days seem so sharp and on others make you wonder how they ever got above .500. I get mad a lot at this team. I get disappointed a lot, too.

But if it helps, I do like them. I like Castro and Jeffers very much. I love seeing Lewis and Kirilloff and Wallner. I like having Kepler and Pagan prove me wrong. I love that Thielbar is still playing baseball for the Twins. I admire Pablo Lopez and I'm pulling for Gray to find that dominant streak again. I like this team, and I like this organization. Always have, and maybe always will. 

But I do expect more from them, and I do hope for better for us.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m going to call a spade a spade. There are certain TD writers who have given it every effort they have to raise expectations because they’re such homers about the Twins. It’s not even objective writing anymore. It’s just a fantasy land about the 2023 Twins being “Built for October”, Sonny Gray being a Cy Young favorite, and Royce Lewis/Ed Julien being superstars.

This team right before opening day had an over/under of 81.5 wins. This is what they’ve always been. A middling .500 team. There were no expectations of being great. And now every team in the division has decided to quit so we will win the AL Central by default  

 

I was reading your quote and thinking the exact opposite.  IMO so many articles nitpick on every possible negative aspect of the Twins this year.  It has been hard to read looking for actual neutral articles or different takes on things, rather than the same old "car wreck" articles virtually every day.

That being said, underdogs and overachievers are always more fun to root for.  I think the Twins have gotten to .500, but not in the way everyone expected.  The offense was supposed to be good and the pitching was supposed to be mediocre.  Instead, the complete meltdowns from the guys expected to be core guys: specifically Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, Miranda, and Gordon make everything look like missed opportunities.

Everything does tighten up in the playoffs.  Good pitching often is more reliable than good hitting in October.  No delusions of grandeur here, but there is a chance this year could look different.

[mickeyone66109]

I attended the season opening series against the Royals in 2017. It was my first time in Minnesota. The fans were not high on the Twins. I thought they were going to be better than people were predicting. I was a big fan of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. I was not sold on the pitching staff. The first two games, most of the fans were almost apologetic for beating the Royals. After the sweep, they found their swagger.

[mickeyone66109]

6 hours ago, FanFromPhilly said:

Good article and I completely agree that this team is no fun to watch.  I don't think I've ever turned off so many games when they were winning.

If my Royals were in first place, I would actually be paying Bally Sports to watch their games. Instead I watch the next day on MLB.tv.

[tony&rodney]

John Prine - " stop wishing for bad luck and knocking on wood ..."

The game has changed from 2017 to 2023. Baldelli isn't Molitor. The 2023 Twins have a much higher budget and payroll than the 2017 squad. The general consensus is that a strike out is an out, big deal. So there are annoying features of baseball today. Whatever, the pitcher-batter chess match is still compelling for me.

There has been some fun Twins baseball to watch this season. Julien found a way to get the runs across today. Pablo Lopez has been terrific. Max Kepler is on a mini resurgence at the plate. Carlos Correa struggles at the plate and still manages to make every play in the field.

The Twins were picked to be a .500 team more or less and are hanging above .500 right now. The next fifteen games should be interesting. A record of 8-7 would be fine and a 9-6 stretch would pretty much push the Twins into the postseason. 

Too many strike outs all year but a 2-0 win and a lead in the division is worth something.

[Blyleven2011]

On 8/20/2023 at 9:10 AM, Karbo said:

This team was put together to hit HR's. That is the way this FO wants to play. A few GOOD on base type guys would really help. And the K's are down right embarrassing to watch!

If the Twins want to be considered  a homerun hitting team  , they need to write a letter to  mlb office to please bring back the juiced ball ...

That magic  only happens once in a blue moon but they keep trying   ...

I keep writing letters  to the FO  to bring back the singles , doubles and triples  ....

Bring back the excitement  , solo Homer's are not game changers or exciting  , the strikeouts are embarrassing  ...

[Strombomb]

On 8/20/2023 at 10:24 AM, chinmusic said:

Could be worse. Imagine being a fan of the Padres this year, or heaven forbid, the Mets. Now that's demoralizing.

Or the Angels. Such a sad, sad, story.