The 2023 Twins Are Built for October

[Ted Schwerzler]

A season ago the Minnesota Twins were leading the AL Central down the stretch, and the postseason was part of the picture. As the roster crumbled due to injury after injury, it looked like they would only compete in small stints. A similar title appears in this article, but takes on a new meaning.

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Minnesota Twins watched as they bled players on the active roster down the stretch. Rocco Baldelli saw big acquisitions like Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez flop, while players like Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco all hit the injured list. The Twins were a snakebit group to the finish line in 2022, and the only way they were going to compete was in short three or four game samples.

Fast forward to 2023, and this Twins team isn’t only positioned to win in October, but they are built for it. During the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were intentional about providing starting pitching depth. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy-type starters were not going to cut it, and acquiring Pablo Lopez put another strong arm in the starting rotation. Having Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Brent Headrick all at Triple-A was reflective of a strong process.

It has all resulted in one of baseball’s best pitching staffs. Yes, they have struggled since the All-Star Game. Joe Ryan looks like a mess, and Ober has not quite been himself. Still, Kenta Maeda has rebounded in a big way, and Sonny Gray is trending towards a Cy Young award. Going into a postseason series relying on Gray, Maeda, and Lopez gives Minnesota a very strong fighting chance.

During October though, it’s not just the starting rotation, and that’s where Minnesota could stand to benefit. The bullpen was untouched this offseason, and then capable looking arms like Danny Coulombe and Jeff Hoffman were left off the roster. That has made the relief corps Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and pray for rain. 

Brock Stewart emerged and looked the part of a high-leverage arm, but may not return this year. Emilio Pagan has turned the page on his awful 2022, and his performance has the front office looking right for sticking by him. Still though, the group a rung down from the top two or three arms leaves plenty to be desired. In the postseason though, there is opportunity to shift arms where necessary.

Nothing says that the Twins have to go with five starters, and in any given series, they likely won’t have the need for that many games. Having Ober, Ryan, and others available in relief could help to bridge the gap between two strengths, and provide necessary outs in the middle of games. It’s a blueprint that Baldelli can’t employ now, but one that certainly works when the strategy of a game gets compressed.

It’s well documented how poorly the Twins have hit this season, and a lineup that includes players like Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and sometimes, Byron Buxton, should be better than it has been. That said, a flip of the calendar allows new opportunity with everyone starting at .000. Correa has been a menace in the postseason, and Buxton returning refreshed should matter.

The Twins lineup is built to be more power than run creation, and adding quickly during October can be a key way to change the game. Balanced with contact hitters like Edouard Julien or Donovan Solano, Minnesota can put guys on base. Ryan Jeffers has emerged as a breakout star behind the plate, and Royce Lewis playing in his first October action seems enticing.

There is no denying that the AL Central is baseball’s worst division in 2023, but the Twins have held their own against good teams. Despite dropping maddening contests to the Tigers or Nationals, they won season series against both the Yankees and Astros. Better pitchers have been the ones where the Twins lineup has shown up, and that will be what they can expect to see during the postseason.

It doesn’t seem like a great bet to suggest that the Twins are destined for a World Series victory, but ending the 0-18 drought and winning a series or two is hardly an unrealistic belief.

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[dberthia]

Our starting rotation bodes well for the playoffs, but I don't have a whole lot of trust in our bullpen with meaningful games on the line. Can you image the butt-clenching if Pagan comes in with a 2 run lead in the 7th inning of a playoff game? Our offense seems to be a roll of the dice, and you never know what you're going to get. Should be interesting.

[SwainZag]

If, and it's a big IF....but if this team can get back Ryan, Stewart, Buxton and Kirilloff for the postseason, the roster would be in pretty dang good shape.  

You gotta like the Twins chances in a 3 game series with the starting staff though.  Who knows, gotta get there first.  

[Danchat]

The rotation looks like it could stack up to most any other... but the bullpen and lineup are sorely lacking. This is a .500 team that is lucky they are in the division they're in, not a team built for October. 

[blindeke]

sure, why not

[jkcarew]

I do think the team stacks up better for a playoff scenario than it has in recent past. Winning a game or series is more likely.

Having said that, it doesn’t mean a series win is LIKELY…just more likely than the completely overmatched pitching in past series has rendered. And it’s going to have to be the starting pitching that does it. Not likely that the bullpen or lineup suddenly pull rabbits out of their hats…not in a scenario of more than a couple games, anyway.

[TNtwins85]

Agreed this rotation is legit. The young guys are hitting well. If you can have Correa be the postseason Correa. If Buxton can deliver a few doubles and a HR or two in a 3 game and 5 game series this team is one to look out for. They’ve failed pretty decent against the teams they’ll be facing in the playoffs. The bullpen though. If you can put Ryan or Maeda in the pen and maybe bring up Varland to let his stuff play up then dang! I’m not sure if this plays out much better. They’re still the twins and we’re not gonna trust it until they’re popping champagne for a division title put if they can have some time to set themselves up the record goes to 0-0 in the playoffs and whatever you did in the season will be overshadowed by what you do in the postseason for sure. 

[dxpavelka]

Isn't that the point?

 

[DocBauer]

I actually agree with the premise. Whoever we play in the 1st round, all 3 games are at home. The starting staff stacks up against almost anyone, but I do think its debatable as to which 3 start, and who goes to the pen, at least for the 1st round. 

We can hem and haw about a few bad games, but Duran, Jax, and a healthy again Thielbar is a nice trio. And I can't believe I'm saying this, but Pagan has had a pretty good season overall, and has been even better in the second half. Doesn't mean I don't want to chew knuckles every time he comes out of the pen, but I can't discount what he's done. I really wish ONE of Moran, Headrick, or a late look at Funderburk would step forward to offer up another LH option. And I can easily see Varland cranking it up for an inning or two to help. The bullpen cupboard isn't bare, it's just, uncertain. (And that needs to change for 2024).

The suddenly, almost inexplicably, suddenly hard ball hitting Kepler and 5 youngsters, plus the suddenly improved/developing Jeffers, lead this team offensively. Castro is a weapon on the basepaths, even though he probably wouldn't actually start a playoff game. Can Correa continue his previous post season production? Can Buxton feel just a little better physically and have his "hitter head" in the game? If so, even with all of the frustrating inconsistencies the lineup has provided for the season, they remain capable of 5 or more runs in any game.

I DO believe they might not only win a game, but actually be capable of winning the 1st round series. 

Unfortunately, I don't know that the pen and offense can do more than that. And if the opposition can toss out a couple competent LH arms, the Twins would seem to be toast.

[jrod23]

I'm ready to see Baldelli go with a consistent lineup in the playoffs as well.  I'd love to see Buxton adding "stolen bases" to his playoff repertoire too.  We're going in the right direction.  Let's end the season on a hot streak winning the Central by 10-12 games.

The big story I'm predicting is Playoff Royce will be born, putting the team on his back, lacing base knocks with a few dingers and stealing bases without Rocco's approval.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Teams are extremely volatile in the postseason. If I am not mistaken, MLB has the most postseason upsets of any of the American sports, and it's generally a surprise team like the '21 Braves, '19 Nationals, '17 Astros, etc, that ends up being the last team standing. For as dominant as teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Rays have been in the regular season over the past half-decade, they only have one WS between the three. 

For every star playoff performer like a David Ortiz, Carlos Correa, or Madison Bumgarner, there's a David Freese, Kenny Rogers, BJ Upton, Ben Zobrist, David Eckstein, or Gene Tenace who will put his team on his back somewhat unexpectedly. The Twins already have known playoff performer Carlos Correa (Career .849 OPS hitter in the postseason, .026 better than regular season), and I bet Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, or Matt Wallner have some ability to pull an '08 BJ Upton. Or the Twins could flounder as they did in '19 and '20. It really is a crapshoot.

[jrod23]

7 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Teams are extremely volatile in the postseason. If I am not mistaken, MLB has the most postseason upsets of any of the American sports, and it's generally a surprise team like the '21 Braves, '19 Nationals, '17 Astros, etc, that ends up being the last team standing. For as dominant as teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Rays have been in the regular season over the past half-decade, they only have one WS between the three. 

For every star playoff performer like a David Ortiz, Carlos Correa, or Madison Bumgarner, there's a David Freese, Kenny Rogers, BJ Upton, Ben Zobrist, David Eckstein, or Gene Tenace who will put his team on his back somewhat unexpectedly. The Twins already have known playoff performer Carlos Correa (Career .849 OPS hitter in the postseason, .026 better than regular season), and I bet Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, or Matt Wallner have some ability to pull an '08 BJ Upton. Or the Twins could flounder as they did in '19 and '20. It really is a crapshoot.

Haaaaaa!!!  You built us up, and then shot us down with the last two sentences, and shot us down hard.

[AJray15]

As a rule I usually go with the opposite of whatever Ted says, so 2 games and out here we come!

[Linus]

Starting pitching is huge in the playoffs so the Twins have a clear strength there. Unfortunately their lineup and bullpen are so volatile that even in a 3 game series there is likely to be at least one game where they score no runs or the bullpen blows it. 

[Dave Borton]

Quote

Ober has not quite been himself...

Ober is out of gas. He is at 130 inn pitched with 39 games to go. Most he has ever pitched in the pros is 108 prior to this year.

Playoffs? Momentum. Key to deep playoff run. I am most interested in last 8-10 games of the season, as Cleve seems to be on the ropes.

Regardless, not sure how deeply Twins will go. Some records to date:

Record against >.500
Twins 27-31
Atlanta 41-25
Baltimore 40-30

Likely 1st Round Opponent (Twins have advantage, all 3 games at home. Dreadful 1-game playoff format is gone).

  Twins at home: 35-25
  On the road:
  Houston, 37-26
  Seattle, 33-27
  Toronto, 35-29
  Rays, 34-28

At home
  Rangers 42-22
  Braves 41-20
  Rays 40-22
  Dodgers 41-21

Where they stand a chance?

Brewers >.500, 33-36
Phils >.500, 37-36

Gosh, would love to see Twins advance to WS w/Phils and crush them and their awful fans.

[JD-TWINS]

>.500 opponent data is interesting…….I do recall that we had a couple games snatched from us v. Orioles to finish 2-4 on the year. Swept by Braves…..slowed their role but still lost all 3. Not sure but I think we got swept in 3 by Tampa. So 3 opponents/4 series and we’re 2-10………v. 3 of best 4 or 5 teams in the game.

Seems we didn’t do that poorly against the rest of Baseball (above & below .500) if we’re 13 games over .500 in remaining contests.

Our pitching is more credible than most teams, however, our 2 most logical opponents (with 25% of season left) Toronto & Seattle both have very good starters and depth. I think I’d rather see Toronto pitching & Seattle bats.

Great to have the games in Minneapolis!!

I see Lopez, Gray, & Maeda as our starters with Ober in the Wings.

Ryan & Varland are both built to let it fly for an inning with fastballs in relief. Those 2 plus 6 core guys from Pen should allow us 14 bats to work with in October.

Duran - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Balazovic - Floro - Varland - Ryan seems like a very credible bullpen.

[NotAboutWinning]

All analytics aside, it FEELS like the Twins are in a slow ascent. In contrast to the rapid descent we have seen at this point in recent seasons.

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

>.500 opponent data is interesting…….I do recall that we had a couple games snatched from us v. Orioles to finish 2-4 on the year. Swept by Braves…..slowed their role but still lost all 3. Not sure but I think we got swept in 3 by Tampa. So 3 opponents/4 series and we’re 2-10………v. 3 of best 4 or 5 teams in the game.

Seems we didn’t do that poorly against the rest of Baseball (above & below .500) if we’re 13 games over .500 in remaining contests.

Our pitching is more credible than most teams, however, our 2 most logical opponents (with 25% of season left) Toronto & Seattle both have very good starters and depth. I think I’d rather see Toronto pitching & Seattle bats.

Great to have the games in Minneapolis!!

I see Lopez, Gray, & Maeda as our starters with Ober in the Wings.

Ryan & Varland are both built to let it fly for an inning with fastballs in relief. Those 2 plus 6 core guys from Pen should allow us 14 bats to work with in October.

Duran - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Balazovic - Floro - Varland - Ryan seems like a very credible bullpen.

Your observation of the Twins vs Atlanta Tampa Bay and the Orioles and being 13 games over .500 vs everyone else is semi flawed in the sense that just since the all-star break they've been swept by K.C. lost 3 of 4 to Detroit and 2 of 3 vs St. Louis. The competition will be stiffer come playoffs. For whatever reason they have fared better against competition where you'd think they might struggle. Like vs D Backs or Phillies. Go figure