Dallas Keuchel Is Who He Is

[Matt Braun]

One fortunate start should not convince anyone otherwise.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

There was quite a stir made when Dallas Keuchel signed with the Twins. Although MLB hitters spent much of the prior two seasons spanking his offerings, the former Cy Young winner felt that his sinker had a few more outs in it, and worked hard to add a few elusive ticks of velo—perhaps hoping that the extra oomph would be the difference between disaster and a spot on a major league roster. He latched onto the Twins on a minor league deal and waited for fate to move in his favor. 

Fortunately, Joe Ryan had a debatably real groin problem and an undeniably real home run problem. Needing to decide on keeping Keuchel around, the Twins called him up—and with his Sunday start now in the books—he now needs to be talked about.

Some may have viewed his five frames of one-run ball positively; our own Sherry Cerny argues that he should be the 6th man in the Twins rotation, extending his stay on the major-league roster. He did only allow one run, after all. 

Beyond the earned runs, though, there’s much to be concerned about. Namely, Keuchel didn’t strike anyone out.

Yes, no one would confuse prime Keuchel with Randy Johnson—the sinking lefty earned his bread off groundballs, not whiffs—but at his best, Keuchel could still offer five to six punchouts a game, improving his absurd ground ball total by ensuring that the few batted balls hitters could find were headed straight for infielder’s gloves. This year's performance is not Keuchel at his best; his strikeout rate in 2023 against AAA hitters—inferior competition—was below average. He’s almost wholly unable to miss major league bats. 

That matters. Some days, those batted balls aren’t always going to find gloves and will instead bang around the field, creating chaos and scoring runs as the visions of his double plays on Sunday become distant and unrecognizable. It’s a simple math problem, with a few more batted ball chances allowing for shenanigans and unideal outcomes. The Pied Piper comes calling for his due eventually; relying on fortunate sequencing and unsustainable left-on-base rates won’t cut it. Those hits will fall. They have to.

Now, yes, he does still have the groundballs. The almighty ability to get batters to drive the ball directly into the earth hasn’t evaporated with age. However, diminished in recent years, Keuchel has demonstrated a rejuvenated grounder rate with the Saints and in his lone Twins start. That’ll always help cap the damage he allows. It can even erase some of his mistakes, but it’s not enough to only have groundballs—especially if batters are smoking his sinker with an exit velocity of 96.2 MPH as they did on Sunday.

Put it this way: strip away the name and the Cy Young award. Would you trust a pitcher with 14 walks and 28 strikeouts over 37 innings? Would you trust a pitcher who could only elicit five swings and misses against one of the coldest offenses in baseball? 

He’s solid depth—the kind of guy you may trust more than Simeon Woods Richardson—but making big plans to add him to Minnesota’s grand down-the-stretch scheme is foolish. He got lucky on Sunday and was fortunate in his time with the Saints. 

Once Joe Ryan is over his bout of balls-keep-leaving-the-yard-itis, the Twins should thank Keuchel for his troubles, and jettison him to the depths of Baseball Reference, only to be uncovered by intrepid dorks wondering why he made a handful of starts for the 2023 Minnesota Twins. They have better starters, and they will be far more critical to the Twins staving off Cleveland in the coming months. 

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[JD-TWINS]

He had reasonable command Sunday. If he doesn’t walk guys, big ask, he can give a bunch of hits up and only 3 runs or less through 5 innings. That’s what we need. We need him to provide rest for others and “average” pitching results.

He gave up 7 hits Sunday and 3 of them were rollers in front of our infielders and one was a flare over SS. He looked good.

Best part is he’s 35 & experienced! He’s used to contact. He’s composed & I look for him to, not be perfect, but effective in a handful of outings. He may fail 2 of 8 starts?? - the rest for others is worthwhile in the end. If guys go out tired, they have a bad outing anyway, & they are still tired!

[Karbo]

I agree that the lack of K's could be a real problem. But I'm not going to judge from1 outing. On the positive side, there were only a few well hit balls, most were soft contact. As a matter of fact, I can't remember ever seeing so many "scratch" hits in 1 game, and I've been watching MLB for over 60 years. Time will tell what can truly be expected from Keuchel.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree that the lack of K's could be a real problem. But I'm not going to judge from1 outing. On the positive side, there were only a few well hit balls, most were soft contact. As a matter of fact, I can't remember ever seeing so many "scratch" hits in 1 game, and I've been watching MLB for over 60 years. Time will tell what can truly be expected from Keuchel.

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls." 

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls." 

Noted. Lopez & Gray & the rest of the Staff give up we’ll hit liners to Taylor & Kepler all the time. They are outs and part of the game.

Kuechel got lucky on a liner to Castro at 3B to end an inning. He also gave up 2 bade hits in front of Julien which were both taps off the end of the bat.

Kuechel’s value is his composure & his lack of HR given up.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He should pitch to contact,  he isn't striking out people anyways.   He will need the extra pitches to get out of innings, but he absolutely cannot walk anyone.   He is a filler,  nothing more nothing less.  Give us a chance to win and see what happens.   Its why the Twins needed an overpay (drastically) if they were going to trade Gray or Maeda.  We need our 5 pitchers for the rest of the season (but we need them healthy and fresh).   

[Patzky]

If you have a ground ball pitcher then you need to place behind him a ground ball defense. Correa and Farmer, certainly, but maybe not Julien and sadly Polanco is showing some cracks too. Royce Lewis should soon help.. and sadly, Joey Gallo at First.

[blindeke]

Well done article.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Typical response.  One start, knee jerk reaction, blow it up.

[Road trip]

No real disagreement.  He's a 6th starter, but that still has some value.  I can't identify a clearly better alternative waiting in AAA.  Ryan rather desperately needed a reset/rest.  There are innings to eat in August and September.  If the Twins can find a way to win a few of his starts, and they've already won one, it's all good.

Now if Keuchel makes an appearance in a playoff game... then we have a problem.

[chpettit19]

59 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Noted. Lopez & Gray & the rest of the Staff give up we’ll hit liners to Taylor & Kepler all the time. They are outs and part of the game.

Kuechel got lucky on a liner to Castro at 3B to end an inning. He also gave up 2 bade hits in front of Julien which were both taps off the end of the bat.

Kuechel’s value is his composure & his lack of HR given up.

Lopez and Gray and the rest of the staff also strike hitters out. That's the point of this article. When you're only striking out 10-15% (or 0% in his first start) of the guys you face while also giving up hard contact it's different.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls." 

I guess it comes down to what is consider well hit. In todays game IMO well hit is 90-95 and above.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I guess it comes down to what is consider well hit. In todays game IMO well hit is 90-95 and above.

So 9 instead of 11. In 5 innings that's basically 2 balls an inning. He was giving up a lot of well hit balls.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Typical response.  One start, knee jerk reaction, blow it up.

Actually, most of the responses around here have been the opposite. One start, knee jerk reaction, Keuchel is back to 2015 Cy Young winner.

[Karbo]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

So 9 instead of 11. In 5 innings that's basically 2 balls an inning. He was giving up a lot of well hit balls.

according to Google the avg. exit velocity in MLB is about 92

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

according to Google the avg. exit velocity in MLB is about 92

I think google is way off. There are 31 players in MLB right now averaging at least 92 MPH in exit velo.

Edit to add: there is no team averaging 92 MPH. Here's the team by team exit velo numbers for this year.

[Karbo]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I think google is way off. There are 31 players in MLB right now averaging at least 92 MPH in exit velo.

Look it up. That's the facts as google reports.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Karbo said:

Look it up. That's the facts as google reports.

Sorry, I added the link after originally posting without it.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter-team&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=5&sortDir=desc

Those are team by team breakdowns. There's not a single team averaging 92 MPH in exit velo. And only 1 over 90. Those are the facts as the high speed cameras in every MLB park reports.

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Look it up. That's the facts as google reports.

Link?

[LA Vikes Fan]

Look, we signed Kuechel off of the scrap heap and got 5 decent innings in a win at home in a start against an average MLB team. That's a big win for the Twins. He'll probably get 2 more starts, one in Philly and one against Detroit. If we can split those games, another big win. At that point it's definitely time to stop tempting fate and get him out of the rotation.

Kuechel reminds me of Dylan Bundy. He's not awful, has veteran moxie (whatever that is),  and can give you a few decent 5 inning starts. Remember April 2022 when Dylan Bundy was a legit Cy Young candidate? Over time, he kills your bullpen because he can't go that 3rd time through the order, and his ERA/FIP/Sierra start creeping higher and higher until it's over 5. Hats off to the FO for getting him since we don't really have much else at AAA. He's better than watching SWR, Varland (best of the lot), or Headrick flail around at the MLB level while we hold our breath that they can keep us in the game for 5 innings. Still, Kuechel just is not even a back end MLB starter on a good team. He is classic veteran depth for a few starts here and there. Nothing wrong with that but let's not go crazy here. 

[Karbo]

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Link?

I just asked google

[Mortimerkenny21]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Link?

Missing Link.

[Schmoeman5]

Keuchel was brought up for what purpose? To get a start here and there to give some relief to the starters. If that's the case, what's the worry? If the plan is to make him part of the rotation, then perhaps there's cause for concern. Mentoning the hard hit balls against him. They weren't getting launched like it was Cape Canaveral ala Ryan's last few starts. 

[MNBearCat]

"Fortunately, Joe Ryan had a debatably real groin problem and an undeniably real home run problem"

Standing ovation for this line.

[Karbo]

32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Link?

What is the exit Velo average at MLB?

 

 

Exit velocity can vary based on whether or not the ball is moisturized with a humidor. From April 7 to May 22, 2021, the average exit velocity was 91.8 miles per hour (147.7 km/h) with a humidor and 92.8 miles per hour (149.3 km/h) without a humidor.

 

I also found another answer of 89 MPH. I honestly don't know which is correct. But going by the eye test on Sunday there were not very many well hit balls. Squibbers and pop outs. I again will say that I can't judge anybody after 1 outing. Do I think he should be a regular in the rotation? No, not yet. And I can't see the Twins cutting back to 12 relievers for any length of time. Maybe when rosters expand trying 6 starters.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Actually, most of the responses around here have been the opposite. One start, knee jerk reaction, Keuchel is back to 2015 Cy Young winner.

No one has said this.  They say he could be a passable starter.  He clearly has downgraded stuff from his Cy Young days but he could be a serviceable 5th starter for a few starts and possibly a few more.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

No one has said this.  They say he could be a passable starter.  He clearly has downgraded stuff from his Cy Young days but he could be a serviceable 5th starter for a few starts and possibly a few more.

 

This post is actively arguing that his stuff is back at it's 2015-2017 range, has numerous "like or love" upvotes, and there's a whole bunch of replies on it agreeing with the premise.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Lopez and Gray and the rest of the staff also strike hitters out. That's the point of this article. When you're only striking out 10-15% (or 0% in his first start) of the guys you face while also giving up hard contact it's different.

Ryan was 5th in the AL in K’s 2 starts ago at 148. His hard hit contact is different than Kuechel’s hard hit contact. I believe 17 dingers in last 7 starts. I like Joe & his leg or tired arm certainly have played into his problems.

Kuechel gives up a line drive to Left at 88MPH and right after he strikes somebody out Ryan gives up 105MPH 15 rows deep. 

Kuechel’s used to not striking guys out - used to base path traffic - used to contact to get outs. My point is a guy like Ryan may get 5 ground balls per outing & Kuechel may give up 5 fly balls per outing. His approach & experience is of value.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

No real disagreement.  He's a 6th starter, but that still has some value.  I can't identify a clearly better alternative waiting in AAA.  Ryan rather desperately needed a reset/rest.  There are innings to eat in August and September.  If the Twins can find a way to win a few of his starts, and they've already won one, it's all good.

Now if Keuchel makes an appearance in a playoff game... then we have a problem.

I don’t mind seeing Kuechel after Lopez or Gray for an inning or two in playoffs …….maybe turn a couple guys around in middle innings - force pinch hitters to be used?

He’s a Veteran - he’d potentially be great used against right piece of a lineup!

How about an 8th inning between Jax & Duran……..pretty different look for opposition!!

Long way to go to worry about the playoffs.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ryan was 5th in the AL in K’s 2 starts ago at 148. His hard hit contact is different than Kuechel’s hard hit contact. I believe 17 dingers in last 7 starts. I like Joe & his leg or tired arm certainly have played into his problems.

Kuechel gives up a line drive to Left at 88MPH and right after he strikes somebody out Ryan gives up 105MPH 15 rows deep. 

Kuechel’s used to not striking guys out - used to base path traffic - used to contact to get outs. My point is a guy like Ryan may get 5 ground balls per outing & Kuechel may give up 5 fly balls per outing. His approach & experience is of value.

When Keuchel was good his K% were in the 20s. When he was bad his K% were 13-15. He may be "used to not striking guys out," but he wasn't good when he wasn't striking guys out. Unless you think he's bouncing back to a 20% K rate you're looking at him being who he has been the last 2 years when he had 5.28 and 9.20 ERAs. 

Yes, Ryan needed a reset. Is he hurt? I don't know. But clearly something was off. Dallas Keuchel isn't likely to be anymore valuable than SWR or Varland or any other AAA guy that can come up and throw to a 5+ ERA over 5 innings a start. His "approach and experience" sure didn't save him the last couple years. Sinkers that miss up in the zone go 105 MPH 15 rows deep, too. And giving up 3 runs without homers in an inning where they bat around and you throw 35 pitches isn't exactly ideal for saving a tiring pen, either. 

Is there some significantly better option? Probably not unless you think Varland can get back to his April-May performance. And maybe Keuchel walks this tightrope for a handful of starts while striking basically nobody out, giving up hard contact left and right, but still not giving up a ton of runs. The odds are severely against that though. And he's no more likely to succeed than any of the other AAA pitchers we could run out there.