Dallas Keuchel Is Who He Is

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree that the lack of K's could be a real problem. But I'm not going to judge from1 outing. On the positive side, there were only a few well hit balls, most were soft contact. As a matter of fact, I can't remember ever seeing so many "scratch" hits in 1 game, and I've been watching MLB for over 60 years. Time will tell what can truly be expected from Keuchel.

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls." 

59 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Noted. Lopez & Gray & the rest of the Staff give up we’ll hit liners to Taylor & Kepler all the time. They are outs and part of the game.

Kuechel got lucky on a liner to Castro at 3B to end an inning. He also gave up 2 bade hits in front of Julien which were both taps off the end of the bat.

Kuechel’s value is his composure & his lack of HR given up.

Lopez and Gray and the rest of the staff also strike hitters out. That's the point of this article. When you're only striking out 10-15% (or 0% in his first start) of the guys you face while also giving up hard contact it's different.

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I guess it comes down to what is consider well hit. In todays game IMO well hit is 90-95 and above.

So 9 instead of 11. In 5 innings that's basically 2 balls an inning. He was giving up a lot of well hit balls.

20 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Typical response.  One start, knee jerk reaction, blow it up.

Actually, most of the responses around here have been the opposite. One start, knee jerk reaction, Keuchel is back to 2015 Cy Young winner.

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

according to Google the avg. exit velocity in MLB is about 92

I think google is way off. There are 31 players in MLB right now averaging at least 92 MPH in exit velo.

Edit to add: there is no team averaging 92 MPH. Here's the team by team exit velo numbers for this year.

Just now, Karbo said:

Look it up. That's the facts as google reports.

Sorry, I added the link after originally posting without it.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter-team&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=5&sortDir=desc

Those are team by team breakdowns. There's not a single team averaging 92 MPH in exit velo. And only 1 over 90. Those are the facts as the high speed cameras in every MLB park reports.

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

No one has said this.  They say he could be a passable starter.  He clearly has downgraded stuff from his Cy Young days but he could be a serviceable 5th starter for a few starts and possibly a few more.

This post is actively arguing that his stuff is back at it's 2015-2017 range, has numerous "like or love" upvotes, and there's a whole bunch of replies on it agreeing with the premise.

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ryan was 5th in the AL in K’s 2 starts ago at 148. His hard hit contact is different than Kuechel’s hard hit contact. I believe 17 dingers in last 7 starts. I like Joe & his leg or tired arm certainly have played into his problems.

Kuechel gives up a line drive to Left at 88MPH and right after he strikes somebody out Ryan gives up 105MPH 15 rows deep. 

Kuechel’s used to not striking guys out - used to base path traffic - used to contact to get outs. My point is a guy like Ryan may get 5 ground balls per outing & Kuechel may give up 5 fly balls per outing. His approach & experience is of value.

When Keuchel was good his K% were in the 20s. When he was bad his K% were 13-15. He may be "used to not striking guys out," but he wasn't good when he wasn't striking guys out. Unless you think he's bouncing back to a 20% K rate you're looking at him being who he has been the last 2 years when he had 5.28 and 9.20 ERAs. 

Yes, Ryan needed a reset. Is he hurt? I don't know. But clearly something was off. Dallas Keuchel isn't likely to be anymore valuable than SWR or Varland or any other AAA guy that can come up and throw to a 5+ ERA over 5 innings a start. His "approach and experience" sure didn't save him the last couple years. Sinkers that miss up in the zone go 105 MPH 15 rows deep, too. And giving up 3 runs without homers in an inning where they bat around and you throw 35 pitches isn't exactly ideal for saving a tiring pen, either. 

Is there some significantly better option? Probably not unless you think Varland can get back to his April-May performance. And maybe Keuchel walks this tightrope for a handful of starts while striking basically nobody out, giving up hard contact left and right, but still not giving up a ton of runs. The odds are severely against that though. And he's no more likely to succeed than any of the other AAA pitchers we could run out there.