Assigning Blame Better - A Qualitative Twins Analysis (feel free to blame me if you disagree)

[alexlegge]

One of my pet peeves is when people misattribute several problems to one source or one problem to several sources. With respect to the 2023 Twins, let's collectively up our blame game by trying to point our figurative fingers more deservedly and more assertively...

Blaming ourselves and the media: 

The 2023 Twins are a funny team in that they're above .500, leading their division by 2.5 games in early August, and have approximately 4-to-1 odds of making the playoffs, yet the narrative has consistently been how much they have underperformed. I think we as fans deserve some blame for overblowing this narrative, and the media has certainly done their part as well. Nobody is entirely wrong in doing so; the team has squandered many games that should have been won because of glaring and/or easily-fixable roster problems, stubbornness about playing higher paid players more frequently, and overall inconsistency. Yet from a bird's-eye-view, the team is probably around where we had realistically hoped they would be at this point. It's just that their journey here has felt unnecessarily circuitous. Are we, as a fan base, making too much of that feeling? Perhaps it would behoove all of us to try to be a little more objective about things going forward. After all, this is baseball.

Blaming the pitch clock: 

Offense is down league-wide, and many teams that came into 2023 with high hopes for their offense have been disappointed. Perhaps this is a league-wide adjustment to the pitch clock, which for veteran major leaguers appears to favor pitching rhythm far more than batting aggression, at least in its first year. This would also explain why younger players who are used to the pitch clock from the minors haven't had the same growing pains.

Blaming the front office:

In general, I think the Falvine regime has done a decent job since taking over in the 2016-17 offseason. Their biggest strength has been their vulture-like pacing and creativity when it comes to offseason signings; yet the flip-side of that, their under-appreciation of long-term injury risks, has been their most damning Achilles heel. More recently, they seem to be way too stubborn about aging players with limited value. Newsflash: the 2023 Twins don't have to be what we thought they could be to win baseball games. They've already established that. It's time to embrace who they are more than who anybody expects them to be. That's where the front office has gone wrong the most this season; they've based too many decisions on projective data and too few decisions on performance data. Perhaps they need a refresher course on the relative merits of fWAR and bWAR. Also, in general, it feels like they are decent at recognizing their own flaws but usually some combination of too slow and/or too extreme with their subsequent means of compensating for said flaws. One needn't look further than the last two trade deadlines, which were mismanaged in wildly different ways, to see evidence of this. Finally, I don't know how to blame ownership or whether they deserve any blame at all, but it does seem like Joe Pohlad has a more involved approach than his brother. This is ultimately a good thing, but it also may have introduced some new kinks in the chain of communication that still need to be ironed out.

Blaming the coaching staff, with extra emphasis on Rocco Baldelli and Dave Popkins:

Two of the biggest problems with the 2023 Twins can be framed as follows:

1) their inability to get the most runs out of their players 
   AND
2) their inability to win the most games based on their run differential

These two issues sure feel like they fall under the nebulous job description of a major league manager. Let's first address #2, because it's simple math. The Twins' underperformance relative to their Pythagorean record is a direct result of Rocco's "separation" philosophy. He uses his best relievers to bank the wins that he knows he can bank. The problem with this approach is that it often forces him to go with tired and/or spottier arms in higher leverage situations. It leads the Twins to over-secure easy wins but makes them far more vulnerable to one-run losses. Psychologically, that is sure to take its toll. It's a philosophical/logical inconsistency that Rocco has probably considered already. But he should, well, reconsider it, and consider it better this time around. 

#1 is dicier when it comes to assigning blame to one person, but I think in this case we can blame both Rocco and Dave Popkins in tandem. When Rocco took over in 2019, he was a great fit because he managed the clubhouse very loosely and trusted the players, thereby earning their trust. And yet that was a team that also had a more seasoned veteran perspective in the clubhouse, Nelson Cruz, to help keep teammates accountable and lead by example. Is it possible that a Cruz-like presence is needed now? Could there even be value in bringing him back in a creative player-coach kind of role? He could fill a spot on their 40-man roster and strategically slide on/off the 26-man roster as a DH and 3rd-string RF based on other roster changes, injuries, matchups, available outfielders, etc..

Also of note is that the relative underperformance of Twins players has been largely limited to their hitting performance. Part of this may be attributable to things like the pitch clock and Rocco's managerial style, as noted above, but it would be remiss of me not to single out Dave Popkins here. Let's call a spade a spade. Several Twins major league hitters have not lived up to their expectations at the plate. The same can't really be said of the pitching staff or of younger hitters who recently transitioned to the bigs. It doesn't take a genius to look at that situation and deduce that there's a problem with hitting coaching at the major league level.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Primarily, The FO constructed this team, failed to acquire a deeper relief corp, failed to sign better hitters, failed to offload/DFA Gallo, and failed to make trade deadline deals to fix the glaring weaknesses or improve the team for the future.

secondarily, Rocco has stuck with Buxton and Correa at the top of the lineup even though those two are the worst hitters on the team, and Popkins has failed this team as a hitting coach. These are incremental adjustments that mitigate the damage that the FO unleashed upon the roster. 
 

it’s not the pitch clock’s fault if the players can’t/won’t adjust. It’s the players

the “separation” policy seems more like a dearth of mid-bullpen reliability. There’s three trustworthy relievers and the rest are bad. If the bullpen had been addressed by the FO, that “separation effect” would be less noticeable.

[gunnarthor]

So, before the season, I thought this was a sub-500 team and, technically, they are beating my expectations. But, generally, I think this is a poorly constructed team, with no clear idea of what it is. It's boring to watch. So, I'd put most of the blame on the FO.

[Jocko87]

I didn't know you were available to blame but now that I know... Everything make much more sense. 😂

Good topic, I voted coaching and lean towards the hitting room. The pitching has been pretty good by and large, maybe even over performing but the hitting has been the opposite. Everyone is so quick to blame the player, as if coaching doesn't matter but I'm here to tell you bad coaching is far more effective than good coaching. Too many hitters have similar issues. One central problem is more likely than 8 separate hitters randomly sucking.

[CRF]

The FO, for putting this roster together...and a second choice, for whatever malaise (strike out fever?) came over our players when they're batting. Whether that's due to coaching, or their own ineptitude. 

[FlyingFinn]

Correa, and to some extent, Buxton. If they are performing anywhere near normal, this team is ahead of the division by 7 games. I blame the FO for the lack of bullpen depth and being wrong about Gallo. Good trades/signings of Farmer, Castro, Taylor and Solano. Excellent starting pitching. I blame Rocco for the games he is pulling hitters in the 4th inning or earlier, especially when they are Julien and Kirilloff. Batting coaches don't seem to be helping the hitters improve. The Twins are exceeding my expectations and there is a balanced blame to go around for not being better, but the big money hitters not doing their job is where I have to lay the most blame.

[T.O.]

14 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Correa, and to some extent, Buxton. If they are performing anywhere near normal, this team is ahead of the division by 7 games.....

FO for thinking Correa was worth $33,000,000.
Correa for thinking he was was worth $33,000,000.
Correa for apparently putting pressure on himself to be a  "team leader" and worthy of $33,000,000 instead of just trying to be a hitter and fielder. You'd think he'd have figured it out by now he's not going to live up to the price tag.

[MABB1959]

Gotta go with Rocco. Mostly putting the lineup together.   Almost 100% sure Buxton would not be an everyday player on most teams, using him as a DH just to have our face of the franchise in the lineup add having our weakest hitters at the top of the lineup.  FAILURE to motivate the team. He seems more than happy with how they are doing.  Not many fans on this board would keep our jobs with this kind of performance.  

[Riverbrian]

The lack of in-season adjustment to players and concepts that were not working. 

[tony&rodney]

The hitting approach on the whole is poor. Flailing with two strikes and hoping the pitcher throws the ball to the bat path is not a recipe for success. If the Twins cannot hit 300 home runs and 300 doubles, then they need a different strategy with two strikes.

[alexlegge]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I didn't know you were available to blame but now that I know... Everything make much more sense. 😂

Good topic, I voted coaching and lean towards the hitting room. The pitching has been pretty good by and large, maybe even over performing but the hitting has been the opposite. Everyone is so quick to blame the player, as if coaching doesn't matter but I'm here to tell you bad coaching is far more effective than good coaching. Too many hitters have similar issues. One central problem is more likely than 8 separate hitters randomly sucking.

Totally agree. That being said, the first thought I had after posting this topic was "How the hell could I have just written so much about assigning blame for underperforming players without suggesting that the players themselves are to blame?!" But I keep coming back to your sentiment about too many hitters having similar issues. It's a consistent pattern - every veteran position player on the roster has underperformed offensively. That reeks of a more systemic/process issue.

[Tlaker]

Sorry I grew tired of reading the options. Especially since I couldn’t vote for more than one.

so I will vent here….

this whole organization, from top to bottom is an absolute clown show.

The biggest clowns are in the penthouse… with no clue how to run a legit MLB organization!!

[Kenny Powers]

Others have already touched on this, but they invested $300 million into Correa and Buxton deals.  Those are the two horses that we expected to carry this offense...

[4twinsJA]

Underperformance of top position players has to be considered. FO may take some blame for that, in that could have been at least partially foreseen with Buxton's injury history. I think most people thought Twins needed at least one more arm for BP, but FO decided against it. FO assembled arguably the best starting pitching Twins has had in a long time. Yes, FO seems too willing to look at previously good aging players and giving them another chance. Would have Twins been better off just going with Larnach and Wallner instead of signing Gallo?

[Jocko87]

11 hours ago, alexlegge said:

Totally agree. That being said, the first thought I had after posting this topic was "How the hell could I have just written so much about assigning blame for underperforming players without suggesting that the players themselves are to blame?!" But I keep coming back to your sentiment about too many hitters having similar issues. It's a consistent pattern - every veteran position player on the roster has underperformed offensively. That reeks of a more systemic/process issue.

Another way to look at it is how departing players have performed after they left.  It's a pretty mixed bag and they have done a good job getting out of the way of clearly declining players like Donaldson and Cruz.  Two that standout are Gary Sanchez and Luis Arraez.  Polar opposites as one on the down side and the other in the up swing of his career but both are excellent this year after leaving the org. 

Arraez may be just getting better but Sanchez revitalized his career.  No telling what the difference is but we really haven't seen the Twins do that with an incoming player, mostly the other way.  I can't think of a single hitter that we can look at and say, man, the Twins sure unlocked his potential, and that's kinda sad.  Would Steer and CES look the same in a Twins uni?  I have my doubts.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Underperformance of top position players has to be considered. FO may take some blame for that, in that could have been at least partially foreseen with Buxton's injury history. I think most people thought Twins needed at least one more arm for BP, but FO decided against it. FO assembled arguably the best starting pitching Twins has had in a long time. Yes, FO seems too willing to look at previously good aging players and giving them another chance. Would have Twins been better off just going with Larnach and Wallner instead of signing Gallo?

Gallos fielding is simply better than Wallner, and he is more versatile than Larnach.

[wavedog]

Actually the interesting thing is the Twins are performing about as I expected this year but they are still disappointing/frustrating to watch to me.  The starters have way overperformed my expectations this year (so far)  - the issue I have is more with the front office.  Why sign Gallo another lefty slugger this offseason when our weakness is hitting lefties and we are loaded with LH hitting sluggers  had options to add a RH bat at the deadline but did not.    Why not address the bullpen both this offseason and at the trade deadline?   Not sure Moran and maybe Winder as well should be on this staff as regulars.     They did make some good adds this offseason with Taylor but he should be a 4th OF and not starting and Castro - still a mystery why Buxton has not played one game in the field this year.    

[Eris]

There is an analysis of the NY Yankees struggles in the NY Post. Change some of the names and a lot of what is written could also apply to the Twins. 
 

https://nypost.com/2023/08/05/yankees-failure-to-learn-needed-lessons-behind-ongoing-decline/

 

[Nine of twelve]

I place most of the blame on the players themselves.

[alexlegge]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Another way to look at it is how departing players have performed after they left.  It's a pretty mixed bag and they have done a good job getting out of the way of clearly declining players like Donaldson and Cruz.  Two that standout are Gary Sanchez and Luis Arraez.  Polar opposites as one on the down side and the other in the up swing of his career but both are excellent this year after leaving the org. 

Arraez may be just getting better but Sanchez revitalized his career.  No telling what the difference is but we really haven't seen the Twins do that with an incoming player, mostly the other way.  I can't think of a single hitter that we can look at and say, man, the Twins sure unlocked his potential, and that's kinda sad.  Would Steer and CES look the same in a Twins uni?  I have my doubts.

Very interesting points. Those prospects on the Reds really took off quickly. Same with Brent Rooker, though in all fairness he was horrible with two other teams last year. Going back to 2019, I certainly think there were some Twins whose careers peaked offensively. Cruz himself comes to mind, as does Mitch Garver. Obviously, all have different career trajectories, and '19 was back in the James Rowson era anyhow. There was a time when the Twins organization certainly had a cookie-cutter approach to hitting coaching which suppressed power, though I think any remnants of that are no longer serving them a clear disservice.

Regarding Arraez, I've wondered if the front office overlooked how much his at-bats were capable of rubbing off on teammates. The notion of good hitting being "contagious" might not be as true as the notion of pitchers struggling, but perhaps certain elite contact hitters just have at-bats of such a uniquely high quality that - for teammates - merely watching them up close can make a big difference when trying to key in on a pitcher's "stuff." Arraez certainly seems like such a player (Cruz, Mauer, and pre-concussion Morneau also come to mind in this regard). If that's who they lost, then it might be critical for a Julien/Kiriloff/Lewis - or even Lee/Jenkins - to help fill the void soon...

[beterday]

I was excited for this season with the Correa signing and, for all I knew, Buxton being healthy.  How anyone could predict the abysmal way that those two have performed this year is beyond me (nobody did predict it, that I read)

.  Vasquez was another bad surprise.  Signing Gallo was a huge mistake only because they continue to play him.  Keeping Kepler may not have been that bad of an idea.  We need Royce Lewis back and now for Polanco to hit.  I think the blame for the most part is on the players for under performing so horribly. 

[IndianaTwin]

I struggle with the notion that they have "underperformed." 

With tonight's win, they are on pace for 84 wins and in first place. Given the nature of their remaining schedule and that the offense has started to show some semblance of life, I could easily see them ending up a bit better that. It would be really hard to get to 90 wins, because that requires going 32-18 the rest of the way, but I could easily see 28-22 with their schedule. That's essentially playing 90-win pace the rest of the year, but it only gets them to 86 because most of the year has been played.

But let's stay with the 84-win notion. At the beginning of the season, I heard three general takes from people: 

1. "They suck. They won't win more than 75." To this group, isn't 84 wins an over-performance?
2. "I think they'll be a little over .500, and that could be good enough to win the Central." Um, they're a little over .500, and that seems like it well may be good enough to win the Central. That's pretty much the definition of playing at the expected. 
3. "I think they'll be above .500, and if things go right, they could push 90 wins." Well, they are above .500. I suppose one could claim "underperformance," because things didn't go right enough to be looking at 90 wins, but that was an "if." It seems to me that they are meeting this expressed level of performance.

 

(I have a separate issue with the idea that everything that doesn't come out the way we want requires "blame" to be put on someone. There's variability. Sometimes things just happen. But that's another discussion.)