In Defense of Emilio Pagan

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

In 2022, Pagan was branded with the scarlet letter by many Twins fans. His career numbers against Cleveland are abysmal, and he blew many games against our AL Central foe in key spots. 

In 2023, Pagan has been an important piece of the Twins' bullpen and I do dare say integral. Among Twins' RP with more than 15.0 IP he ranks:

1st in IP (43.1)

4th in ERA+ (130)

2nd in appearances (40)

Tied for 3rd in win probability added (0.2)

Tied for 3rd in runs better than average (4)

4th in WAR (0.7)

6th in leverage index (0.93)

These stats tell a good story of what Pagan has been for the Twins this year. He often enters medium to low-leverage situations and gives the Twins above-average pitching. Nobody is making the case that they want Pagan to be a regular 8th/9th inning arm, but he has stepped up in a big way after Stewart went on the IL. Not everyone in the bullpen is going to be a lockdown arm in the mold of Jhoan Duran. Pagan, ironically, has been a pillar of stability in the middle of the Twins' pen who adds value more value to the Twins than he takes away. 

[AceWrigley]

Ummm ... well ... ok. If I'm Rocco I still get the yips when I'm pushing the Pagan bullpen button.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The problem with Pagan is that when he's bad, he's horrifically bad. Most middle relievers will struggle here and there over the course of what you presume will be 65+ appearances. But Pagan gives new meaning to that. Perhaps the recent outings indicate that he's turned the corner but more than likely, we're not too far from seeing Pagan give up a game changing three-run dong in the 8th inning.

And, even when Pagan gets out - they're loud scary outs. The game against Oakland a couple of weeks ago. He fooled no one, was just fortunate that the balls were crushed right at someone.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

The problem with Pagan is that when he's bad, he's horrifically bad. Most middle relievers will struggle here and there over the course of what you presume will be 65+ appearances. But Pagan gives new meaning to that. Perhaps the recent outings indicate that he's turned the corner but more than likely, we're not too far from seeing Pagan give up a game changing three-run dong in the 8th inning.

And, even when Pagan gets out - they're loud scary outs. The game against Oakland a couple of weeks ago. He fooled no one, was just fortunate that the balls were crushed right at someone.

He has had 3 clunkers in 40 appearances (43.1IP).  In the other 37 he has given up a total of 4 ER.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

He has had 3 clunkers in 40 appearances (43.1IP).  In the other 37 he has given up a total of 4 ER.

He hasn't been given quite the middle-of-the-lineup assignments that Duran for instance has.  That matters.

[ashbury]

Emilio wants me to convey his thanks for the jinx you placed on him tonight. 

[pierre75275]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He has had 3 clunkers in 40 appearances (43.1IP).  In the other 37 he has given up a total of 4 ER.

Yeah .....about that.....

But he has been surprisingly steady I will say that

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He has had 3 clunkers in 40 appearances (43.1IP).  In the other 37 he has given up a total of 4 ER.

His clunkers result in losses. As I said, the killer HR was coming. And it came last night.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

His clunkers result in losses. As I said, the killer HR was coming. And it came last night.

This statement illustrates the point.  Moran and Ortega gave up 3 ER each.  Pagan gave up one ER but the loss was Pagan's fault.  Moran has given up 3 ERs 3 times in his last 15 appearances.  He does not get a quarter of the angst that is directed at Pagan.  I don't think Pagan is great by any stretch but the current angst is more about people holding on to last year than it is his current level of performance.  Same thing with Kepler.  Yes, he has been bad for a couple years and I was on board with moving him last off-season but he is playing quite well right now.  

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

This statement illustrates the point.  Moran and Ortega gave up 3 ER each.  Pagan gave up one ER but the loss was Pagan's fault.  Moran has given up 3 ERs in his last 15 appearances.  He does not get a quarter of the angst that is directed at Pagan.  I don't think Pagan is great by any stretch but the current angst is more about people holding on to last year than it is his current level of performance.  Same thing with Kepler.  Yes, he has been bad for a couple years and I was on board with moving him last off-season but he is playing quite well right now.  

Moran didn't make things easy on Pagan and I'm not giving Moran a free pass. But, when you come into the game in that spot, you have a job to do. Pagan didn't. This isn't the first, second, third, or even fourth time that has happened this season.

As for Ortega, he's a AAA+ arm at best and that speaks to the front office's failures more than anything. He shouldn't be on the roster at this point.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

"Pagan gave up one ER".  I agree.  After he cleared the bases and gave up the big lead, he pitched really well.

[Doctor Wu]

A very brave post and one that was quite informative. Thanks for that! It seems like anytime that Pagan implodes it's a most inopportune time, but otherwise his performances are pretty good. Not the guy I want to see with the game on the line, but otherwise he's pretty useful. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

His clunkers result in losses. As I said, the killer HR was coming. And it came last night.

Not here to defend Pagan, but Moran was the primary cause of last night's 8th inning, not Pagan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not here to defend Pagan, but Moran was the primary cause of last night's 8th inning, not Pagan.

Yep, and Pagan yet again shows the lack of bullpen depth. Emilio simply is not a pitcher I want to bring into a game with runners on base. He seems to do mostly okay with clean innings but almost always finds a way to be disastrous if runners are on the bases.

Moran did the inexcusable: walked not only one but multiple batters while recording no outs. Yes, Pagan could have been better but he's a homer-prone reliever who came into a situation where a home run would be disastrous.

[ICTwin25]

Moran deserves a lot of blame for last night. He has been bad all year and has too many outings result in a giant blow up. The reason Pagan gets so much angst was he traded for and was bad last year. Nobody wanted to keep him yet he stayed on the roster so that created an intensified distaste from fans. He's just one of those guys you can't rely on as you always feel the Bad Pagan is coming and it could be tonight.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

His clunkers result in losses. As I said, the killer HR was coming. And it came last night.

Last night is all on Moran plain and simple.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'll be happy when both Moran and Pagan are no longer on the roster or at least pitching only in mop up duty. Not a fan of either and yeah, Moran sucked last night too. I'm not letting him off the hook. Just pointing out that Pagan can't be trusted in a big spot despite some decent performances prior to yesterday.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

IMO, the issue with Pagan really comes down to the fact that people that want to hate on Pagan will hate on Pagan, regardless of the information put in front of them.  You can find fault with any pitcher on the roster, but Pagan invites vitriol like nobody else.

You could provide 10 positive stats, and the haters will say "Yeah, but...".  It really doesn't matter.

Like it or not Pagan is filling his mid-leverage roll pretty will this year

[KirbyDome89]

He has an .860 OPS against on the season when entering with men on base. 

We know his his high leverage numbers are atrocious. 

He's back at a negative WPA (by Fangraphs) after last night so the "X number of clunkers in 40 appearances," argument seems pretty silly at this point. 

He's a guy who can only be trusted to start clean innings in low leverage. That's a role you want Jorge Lopez in while he tries to turn it around, or someone like Balazovic filling while getting their feet wet.  

[KirbyDome89]

43 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

IMO, the issue with Pagan really comes down to the fact that people that want to hate on Pagan will hate on Pagan, regardless of the information put in front of them.  You can find fault with any pitcher on the roster, but Pagan invites vitriol like nobody else.

You could provide 10 positive stats, and the haters will say "Yeah, but...".  It really doesn't matter.

Like it or not Pagan is filling his mid-leverage roll pretty will this year

30 of his 44 innings have come in low leverage. He isn't close to "filling a mid-leverage roll pretty well." 

He's providing an abundance of value (10 positive stats) but sitting at a negative WPA?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Moran didn't make things easy on Pagan and I'm not giving Moran a free pass. But, when you come into the game in that spot, you have a job to do. Pagan didn't. This isn't the first, second, third, or even fourth time that has happened this season.

As for Ortega, he's a AAA+ arm at best and that speaks to the front office's failures more than anything. He shouldn't be on the roster at this point.

Correct, Moran put two runners on, Pagan gave up the three run homer. Pagan allowed two inherited runners to score. Those are as much his runs as Moran’s.

FWIW, Moran needs to go too, but it’s not realistic to expect a bullpen full of Durans.

 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Correct, Moran put two runners on, Pagan gave up the three run homer. Pagan allowed two inherited runners to score. Those are as much his runs as Moran’s.

FWIW, Moran needs to go too, but it’s not realistic to expect a bullpen full of Durans.

 

Nitpic, but Moran put 3 runners on, not two. He pitched to 3 hitters: BB, BB, RBI double.

Pagan came in with no outs, a run in, and runners on 2nd and 3rd. He gave up an RBI ground out, then a 2 run HR. Then finished out the inning. 

He wasn't good, but only 1 runner, and 1 run, were his fault. 

Three of those 4 runs were on Moran, and properly charged to his pitching line.

You simply cannot come into a game up 4 and walk the first 2 hitters. Inexcusable. 

 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

" He's a pretty good surgeon. He only kills a patient every two or three weeks."  "He's a pretty good pilot. He's only crashed his plane five times this year."  "He's a pretty good clutch reliever.  He's only ...  Never mind.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

30 of his 44 innings have come in low leverage. He isn't close to "filling a mid-leverage roll pretty well." 

He's providing an abundance of value (10 positive stats) but sitting at a negative WPA?

Thank you for responding in exactly the way I was referring to.  My verbiage is just semantics... low leverage, mid leverage.  I say positive stats, you come back with one negative...

I am defending Pagan only to the degree that his performance does not warrant the utter vitriol and negativity that follows the mention of his name. 

It does not matter what positives are brought up, what role he fills... haters gonna hate. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

15 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

" He's a pretty good surgeon. He only kills a patient every two or three weeks."  "He's a pretty good pilot. He's only crashed his plane five times this year."  "He's a pretty good clutch reliever.  He's only ...  Never mind.

The next time Duran blows a game, you better be out here screaming from the rooftops.

If a guy like Jorge Alcala or Brent Headrick were putting up the same performances as Emilio Pagan and had the same stat line, he would not receive 1/10th the vitriol and disgust that Pagan receives. Every reliever, even Duran, is going to blow games. If you can pitch well on days when you don't blow up and reduce the number of blow-ups, you'll add value to your team, which is exactly what Pagan has done for the Twins. You can bitch and moan about blown losses, but they happen; it's part of the sport. If you want to watch baseball where no one makes mistakes, you can play MLB The Show and turn off the system whenever you give up a run.

[Kenny Powers]

16 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Thank you for responding in exactly the way I was referring to.  My verbiage is just semantics... low leverage, mid leverage.  I say positive stats, you come back with one negative...

I am defending Pagan only to the degree that his performance does not warrant the utter vitriol and negativity that follows the mention of his name. 

It does not matter what positives are brought up, what role he fills... haters gonna hate. 

Yup.  Also, if we are flagging guys based on negative WPA, then it's going to flag more than Pagan....

Pagan WPA = -0.09

G. Jax  WPA = -0.08

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Thank you for responding in exactly the way I was referring to.  My verbiage is just semantics... low leverage, mid leverage.  I say positive stats, you come back with one negative...

I am defending Pagan only to the degree that his performance does not warrant the utter vitriol and negativity that follows the mention of his name. 

It does not matter what positives are brought up, what role he fills... haters gonna hate. 

His performances in different leverages/situations is the case against him, so no, pointing out that he hasn't come close to filling a mid leverage role isn't semantics.

You're not actually bringing up any positives, you're just talking in vague terms and twisting what others are saying into some kind of personal attack narrative. I'll ask you again, what are all these positives that aren't being properly accounted for? What are the 10 areas where he's providing value and contributing to wins but not being rewarded for doing so? Enlighten us "haters."

[Fire Dan Gladden]

17 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

His performances in different leverages/situations is the case against him, so no, pointing out that he hasn't come close to filling a mid leverage role isn't semantics.

You're not actually bringing up any positives, you're just talking in vague terms and twisting what others are saying into some kind of personal attack narrative. I'll ask you again, what are all these positives that aren't being properly accounted for? What are the 10 areas where he's providing value and contributing to wins but not being rewarded for doing so? Enlighten us "haters."

I will "enlighten" you, but nothing I say will change your opinion. 

What I am saying is it does not matter what facts are brought up supporting Pagan.  The article itself listed many statistical positives that Pagan has brought to the table this year. 
Since this was brought up by Kenny Powers:

Pagan WPA = -0.09
G. Jax  WPA = -0.08

That stat will be ignored by many posters, or circumvented by other posters by changing the context.  All year long Jax has not gotten any where near the vitriol that Pagan has gotten, even when Jax was BRUTAL the first month of the year.

Pagan is not Prime Joe Nathan, but he is also not Terry Felton.

I fully anticipate a whole bunch of "Yeah, but" comments...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yup.  Also, if we are flagging guys based on negative WPA, then it's going to flag more than Pagan....

Pagan WPA = -0.09

G. Jax  WPA = -0.08

You know this is coming...

Don't bring facts to an emotional argument

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I will "enlighten" you, but nothing I say will change your opinion. 

What I am saying is it does not matter what facts are brought up supporting Pagan.  The article itself listed many statistical positives that Pagan has brought to the table this year. 
Since this was brought up by Kenny Powers:

Pagan WPA = -0.09
G. Jax  WPA = -0.08

That stat will be ignored by many posters, or circumvented by other posters by changing the context.  All year long Jax has not gotten any where near the vitriol that Pagan has gotten, even when Jax was BRUTAL the first month of the year.

Pagan is not Prime Joe Nathan, but he is also not Terry Felton.

I fully anticipate a whole bunch of "Yeah, but" comments...

List the facts! You said it yourself, you could rattle off 10 positives categories that aren't being properly weighted. If you've got a glut of info that says Pagan is more than a low leverage, clean inning guy I'm all ears!

You're going to complain about arguments being skirted or shifted, but toss Jax out as a comp? Hmmm.

Whataboutism aside, yep, Jax was brutal for about a month but there was certainly plenty of hand wringing over his performance. He's been stellar since mid May, and he's pitching late innings/high leverage, i.e. he's an actual weapon, hence he's not viewed similarly to Pagan. 

There's no "yeah but," here. The case against Pagan is straight forward; he can't handle leverage, he doesn't pitch well when inheriting runners, the need to shield him has a domino effect, and his role is best suited for guys auditioning. Do you have an actual rebuttal to any of that, or is this a never ending tap dance?