Sonny Gray's Season is Similar to a Past Cy Young-Winning Twins Pitcher

[Cody Schoenmann]

With an excellent start to the 2023 season, All-Star Sonny Gray is on track to have one of the greatest seasons for a starting pitcher in Twins' history. Surprisingly, Gray's season is showing similarities to a past Twins Cy Young Award winner. 

Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Every game Sonny Gray takes the mound, adjusts his hat, and winds up, there tends to be a sense of ease present that has rarely been felt while watching Twins starting pitchers. Gray's intense and unassailable demeanor gives fans an unwavering sense of trust in him on the mound. 

On July 2, it was announced that Gray was selected to his third career All-Star game and first as a member of the Twins. Gray and fellow starting pitcher Pablo López were the only Twins in the 2023 All-Star Game. Gray threw a scoreless inning, walked one and struck out two batters, including NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuña Jr.

According to Fan Duel, Gray is tied with fellow Twins All-Star López with the 10th highest odds to win the AL Cy Young Award. Although Gray winning the AL Cy Young Award looks like a long shot, if he can replicate his first-half numbers, Gray will have one of the best seasons for a starting pitcher in Twins history. 

In some order, most Twins fans would agree that the greatest seasons for Twins starting pitchers are:

• Johan Santana in 2004 and 2006 (2x Cy Young Award)
• Kenta Maeda in the shortened 2020 season 
• Jim Perry in 1970 (Cy Young Award)
• Bert Blyleven in 1973 and 1974 
• Frank Viola in 1988 (Cy Young Award)

Viola's first half of the 1988 season and Gray's 2023 season are surprisingly similar. 

Through 18 starts:

• Gray (2023) posted a 2.89 ERA through 99 2/3 innings pitched and 419 total batters faced.
• Viola (1988) posted a 2.33 ERA through 131 1/3 innings pitched and 529 total batters faced. 

Admittedly, there is a significant difference between a 2.33 ERA and a 2.89 ERA, but if you take out Gray's final start before the All-Star break, where he gave up six earned runs through six innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles on July 8, his ERA would be sitting at 2.50. Although Viola and Gray's ERAs have a marginally significant difference, their underlying numbers have quantifiable similarities. 

Through 18 starts:

• Gray (2023) currently has a FIP of 2.85, a LOB% of 77.5%, and an elite HR/9 of 0.27 while striking out 101 hitters and walking 39. 
• Viola (1988) finished with a FIP of 2.99, a LOB% of 83.3%, and a similarly-elite HR/9 of 0.75 while striking out 99 hitters and walking only 26.

Also, "Sweet Music" had an ERA+ of 154 and a WHIP of 1.13, while Gray currently possesses a nearly identical ERA+ of 150 and a WHIP of 1.27. 

Gray commands the zone as an "east-to-west" pitcher utilizing his sinker and cutter to work the edges while keeping hitters off balance with his semblance of off-speed pitches, including a curveball, sweeper, and changeup. Gray, who has six different pitches in his arsenal, relies heavily on his fastball, and when his fastball, which has 96th-percentile spin, is on, Gray is nearly untouchable.

Viola is a different story. Viola struggled to be a consistently-efficient pitcher during his early seasons with the Twins from 1982-1986. But in 1987, Viola tinkered with his original changeup grip taught to him by former Twins pitching coach Johnny Podres, and made it one of the best off-speed pitches in the game. 

Gray is a fastball-dominant pitcher who works the edges of the zone with finesse. During Viola's playing days, he was a traditional left-handed pitcher who would work the fastball to set up his elite changeup, not too dissimilar from current Twins relief pitcher Jovani Moran.

When comparing pitchers of the 1980s to pitchers of today, the most prominent difference will always be their total number of innings pitched. In 1988, Viola pitched 255 1/3 innings. That will not happen with Gray or any Twins starting pitcher. If Gray and the Twins are lucky, he will finish the season between 160-180 innings pitched, and even that feels like an optimistic outlook.

Throwing fewer innings doesn't make what Gray is doing any less remarkable, and it is safe to assume that if the Twins forced Gray to throw seven to eight innings every start, his numbers would not be nearly as impressive. Gray will never compare to Viola in that aspect of the game, nor will any modern-day starting pitcher. 

Despite having many functional differences, Gray most closely resembles Viola by being an above-average and reliable Twins starting pitcher, which is valuable and rare in any era of baseball. 

Gray and Viola limit home runs, generate a significant amount of quality starts, and efficiently get through innings while limiting walks and producing respectable strikeout numbers. Many of these phenomena are further evidenced by Gray and Viola's advanced metrics.

Although Gray likely won't win the AL Cy Young Award this season, he is undoubtedly on track to have one of the best seasons for a starting pitcher in Minnesota Twins history. While not in the same realm as Santana's dominant seasons in the mid-2000s, Gray's season looks to conclude very similarly to Viola's 1988 Cy Young Award-winning campaign numbers wise.

Do you think Gray's first half is comparable to Viola's 1988? Do you see any other similarities between the two? Comment below. 

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[TopGunn#22]

Well...the other big stat for pitchers, which doesn't seem to matter now (and isn't mentioned in the article) and is linked hand in hand with innings pitched is WINS!  Viola was 13-2 at the All star break, on his way to a 24 win season.  Call me old fashioned, but in this era of "Max Effort" on every pitch it just seems that we have a lot of "throwers" and not as many "pitchers."  I know advanced metrics supposedly "tell us" that stats like "Wins" and "Batting Average" aren't really unimportant anymore.  But winning games is the ultimate purpose of a baseball team.  And a pitcher who knows how to "win games" is invaluable to a team in my view.

Who would you rather build your staff around...Jacob DeGrom, who could be unbelievable but somehow never had the knack to win games, or Tom Glavine, who won over 300 games and always took the ball.  Even when his stuff was at it's best DeGrom won 12-14 games in a season.  I've got to believe the concept of "Max Effort" hasn't helped Jacob DeGrom in his career.  Unless you count all the money he's made while rehabbing.  

Finally, I would put Jim Kaat's 1966 season in which he won 25 games on the list instead of Maeda's half season in 2020.  Kaat should have won the American League CY Young, but they only gave one award for the American & National League and nobody was beating Sandy Koufax in his final season.  

[LewFordLives]

Good article, but given the choice, I take Viola any day. In his prime he was an absolute beast. He was just flat out fun to watch. And as mentioned, he threw 255 innings in 1987. That's less wear on the bullpen.

[USAFChief]

There are many things I don't agree with about this article, but I'll start with Kenta Maeda's 2020 being one of the greatest seasons for a Twins starter in history. C'mon. Seriously?

More low hanging fruit: Bert Blyleven's 1971, 72, and 75.  Any Dave Goltz season mid to late 70s. Kevin Tapani 1991. Jim Kaat doesn't make your list ANYWHERE? 

 

[JD-TWINS]

26 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Well...the other big stat for pitchers, which doesn't seem to matter now (and isn't mentioned in the article) and is linked hand in hand with innings pitched is WINS!  Viola was 13-2 at the All star break, on his way to a 24 win season.  Call me old fashioned, but in this era of "Max Effort" on every pitch it just seems that we have a lot of "throwers" and not as many "pitchers."  I know advanced metrics supposedly "tell us" that stats like "Wins" and "Batting Average" aren't really unimportant anymore.  But winning games is the ultimate purpose of a baseball team.  And a pitcher who knows how to "win games" is invaluable to a team in my view.

Who would you rather build your staff around...Jacob DeGrom, who could be unbelievable but somehow never had the knack to win games, or Tom Glavine, who won over 300 games and always took the ball.  Even when his stuff was at it's best DeGrom won 12-14 games in a season.  I've got to believe the concept of "Max Effort" hasn't helped Jacob DeGrom in his career.  Unless you count all the money he's made while rehabbing.  

Finally, I would put Jim Kaat's 1966 season in which he won 25 games on the list instead of Maeda's half season in 2020.  Kaat should have won the American League CY Young, but they only gave one award for the American & National League and nobody was beating Sandy Koufax in his final season.  

There are probably a handful of other seasons better than the shortened 2020 season from Maeda. Thanks for pointing out an obvious one!

[Whitey333]

I like Sonny Gray but don't even think about comparing him to some of the Twins greats.  It demeans past pitching performances.  Gray is good, not great.  Maeda shouldn't even be mentioned in this article.  Starting pitching in many cases has been a joke in recent years.  Yes you still have a few standouts but starting pitchers overall pitch much less and are a paid a lot more than they used to.  I yearn for the days when starting pitchers wanted and were expected to pitch complete games or close to it.  BTW Sonny Gray has said numerous times he is testing free agency this year.  In all likelihood this will be his final year in a Twins uniform.  

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

My pick for best all-time season for a Twins pitcher: Bert Blyleven, 1973

20-17 W/L

325 innings pitched

258 K, 67 BB

9 shut outs, led the AL. 

2.32 FIP., 2.52 ERA

25 Complete games out of 37 starts

156 ERA+

9.8 WAR

Pitched in AS game

AND FOR ALL THAT ONLY 7th in CYA VOTING!!!

[mikelink45]

You missed Jim Kaat 1966 25 - 13 2.75

And Mudcat Grand 1965 - 21. - 7 3.30

Camilo Pascual 1963 21 - 7 2.46

Dean Chance 1967 20 - 14 2.73

Scott Erickson 1991 20 - 8 3.18

Dave Goltz 1977 20 - 11 3.36

Gray has to lead us to the WS to rank with Viola. I agree with the comments about Maeda - many pitchers have great half seasons. 

And I still value wins.  In my prime years of fandom the started pitched enough to earn the wins and they count, just like BA - ask Miami what they think about Luis Arraez. 

[gunnarthor]

This was a really bad article for so many reasons. But to suggest that Gray is no Viola regarding innings, misses the mark. He's 42nd in baseball this year.

And I have no idea who thinks Kenta Maeda's 66 innings in 2020 make him the second greatest season ever but they are wrong. Just simply wrong.

[Brandon]

Joe Ryan is 1991 Scott Ericksom

[roger]

I like Sonny Gray, like him a lot.  Also hope that they figure out a way to bring him back in 2024.  But one of the best, no way.

I lived in Wisconsin during my early life and will always be a Braves fan, well at least until they moved to Atlanta.  So when thinking about big time pitchers, I immediately think about Warren Spahn.

Spahn had 16 years when he pitched over 250 innings.  He threw 382 complete games and 63 shutouts while pitching a total of 5,243 innings in his career.   Heck, today everyone gets excited when a Twins pitcher pitches a complete game which has now happened twice this year.

I guess by today's standards he wouldn't be considered great because he only struck out 2,583 hitters, or only 4 and a half per nine innings.  He won 363 games while missing three of his best young years fighting with the Army in Europe, where he won a medal for heroism in the Battle of the Bulge.  Now that is a pitcher who I think of when I think of the best.  Sonny Gray is an asset to the Twins and a heck of a pitcher, but he ain't no Warren Spahn.

[saviking]

Wins should still be the key metric because the deeper you pitch into a ball game the higher your probability of winning .. 

[TwinsDr2021]

This is satire correct?

How do you write this with a straight face?

"Throwing fewer innings doesn't make what Gray is doing any less remarkable, and it is safe to assume that if the Twins forced Gray to throw seven to eight innings every start, his numbers would not be nearly as impressive"

So pitching less innings doesn't it make it less remarkable, but if asked to pitch more his remarkable numbers would go done? Brilliant!

"Gray and Viola limit home runs, generate a significant amount of quality starts, and efficiently get through innings while limiting walks and producing respectable strikeout numbers"

FYI - Gray has 7 QS in 18 starts. Ober has 9 in 14. Gray doesn't efficiently get though innings he runs up his pitch count and it results in "shorter" starts, and somehow that makes it impressive.

I like Gray, he is good, but if you need advanced stats to explain a guy who averages 5 1/2 innings a start is somehow comparable to the Twins all time greats advanced stats are worthless.

 

 

 

[Karbo]

One of the biggest differences between this era and past ones are the velocity that pitchers throw with now. To keep that velo up requires pretty much max effort throughout the entire game. Thus less IP. I remember Nolan Ryan hitting 1oo on the radar gun which just amazed everyone. Now 100 is almost ho-hum.

[Teflon]

Even with the downgrading of wins as a factor, it's hard to believe a starting pitcher ending the season with a (likely) single digit win total in a non-shortened season would draw any consideration.  

PS - According to Baseball Reference, Gray's nickname is "Pickles". I, for one, believe that Twins Daily should start using nicknames more frequently. An exception would be made for Trevor Larnach. In his case his full name -Trevor John-Ikaiakaloa Larnach - should be used at all times because it's simply music to the ears. 

[LewFordLives]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Joe Ryan is 1991 Scott Ericksom

I gotta disagree on this one. Scott Erickson in first half of 1991: 12-3 1.83 ERA. And those stats don't even tell how dominant he was. It's too bad, Right before the All Star break he started experiencing elbow discomfort. He was never the same after that. He was still a good pitcher, but no longer the dominant force he was in the latter half of '90 and the first half of '91.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Although Gray likely won't win the AL Cy Young Award this season,

All righty then.  You just saved me some time constructing a counter-argument or two.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I appreciate the work here Cody, helps to put Sonny's season in perspective.

Just a shame that a large enough percentage of the TD mass think the Twins should trade him thinking it will help the team.

[jkcarew]

Less innings…a ton less innings, in fact means…

they’re not comparable at all.

[jkcarew]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

One of the biggest differences between this era and past ones are the velocity that pitchers throw with now. To keep that velo up requires pretty much max effort throughout the entire game. Thus less IP. I remember Nolan Ryan hitting 1oo on the radar gun which just amazed everyone. Now 100 is almost ho-hum.

Not ho-hum…not for STARTING pitchers, like Ryan. About zero starting pitchers throwing 100 MPH more than a handful of pitches (maybe) per outing, even today.

Agree there is more max efforting going on to bump the velocity…but pitchers also throw more pitches per batter, as well. 
 

In any regard, if the great pitchers of previous generations were pacing themselves, their results in terms of ERA are even more impressive.

[Cody Schoenmann]

On 7/16/2023 at 7:43 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Well...the other big stat for pitchers, which doesn't seem to matter now (and isn't mentioned in the article) and is linked hand in hand with innings pitched is WINS!  Viola was 13-2 at the All star break, on his way to a 24 win season.  Call me old fashioned, but in this era of "Max Effort" on every pitch it just seems that we have a lot of "throwers" and not as many "pitchers."  I know advanced metrics supposedly "tell us" that stats like "Wins" and "Batting Average" aren't really unimportant anymore.  But winning games is the ultimate purpose of a baseball team.  And a pitcher who knows how to "win games" is invaluable to a team in my view.

Who would you rather build your staff around...Jacob DeGrom, who could be unbelievable but somehow never had the knack to win games, or Tom Glavine, who won over 300 games and always took the ball.  Even when his stuff was at it's best DeGrom won 12-14 games in a season.  I've got to believe the concept of "Max Effort" hasn't helped Jacob DeGrom in his career.  Unless you count all the money he's made while rehabbing.  

Finally, I would put Jim Kaat's 1966 season in which he won 25 games on the list instead of Maeda's half season in 2020.  Kaat should have won the American League CY Young, but they only gave one award for the American & National League and nobody was beating Sandy Koufax in his final season.  

I really don't think wins are relevant when analyzing how good a starting pitcher may or may not be for many reasons. To begin, wins are largely out of the starting pitchers hands and a lot of that has to do with run support. For example, in 1987 Viola got 4.4 runs of support per game and in 1988 he got 5.5 runs of support per game. Viola's win-loss record in 1987 was 17-10 and his record win-loss record in 1988 was 24-7. Now, if we were to look at Viola's seasons side-by-side and compare 17-10 to 24-7, everyone would agree that Viola's 1988 season was better. Yet, in 1987 Viola had a better ERA+ (159) than in 1988 (154) and he accumulated more WAR in 1987 (8.1) than he did in 1988 (7.7). Viola could have won the Cy Young Award in both years, but he only won it in 1988. Why? Probably because voters prioritized win-loss record while voting and were enamored by his 24-7 record. Taijuan Walker leads the league with 11 wins while the best current pitcher in baseball, Framber Valdez, is tied for 30th in the MLB with seven wins. In 2015, Drew Hutchison finished the year with a 13-5 record yet had an ERA of 5.57 ERA. There are many examples of this. Wins are like touchdowns, it doesn't matter who gets them as long as they are gotten if that makes sense. 

[Lefty61]

On 7/16/2023 at 9:51 AM, Whitey333 said:

I like Sonny Gray but don't even think about comparing him to some of the Twins greats.  It demeans past pitching performances.  Gray is good, not great.  Maeda shouldn't even be mentioned in this article.  Starting pitching in many cases has been a joke in recent years.  Yes you still have a few standouts but starting pitchers overall pitch much less and are a paid a lot more than they used to.  I yearn for the days when starting pitchers wanted and were expected to pitch complete games or close to it.  BTW Sonny Gray has said numerous times he is testing free agency this year.  In all likelihood this will be his final year in a Twins uniform.  

Couldn't agree more,  How about Jim Kaat's 25 wins in 1966 when he received highest AL MVP voting for pitcher before their was a CY for each league, so was defacto AL CY.  Or Scott Erickson in 1991, 20 wins and 2nd in AL CY voting.  And my favorite of the first two decades, Mudcat Grant's 21 wins in '65, 2nd in AL MVP voting among pitchers and two wins in the World Series, including a Game 6 complete game gem on 3 days rest that would have been legendary if Twins could've pulled off the G7 upset in LA.