Improving This Lineup Is Not as Straightforward as You Think

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Linus said:

Here is what I would try. Kepler plays CF and no Max I don’t care if you like it. Call up Wallner to play right  I would also hold my nose and put Julien at third when Polanco comes back. Lastly Jeffers starts two thirds of the games. Ultimately Correa and Buck have to get hot. 

Polanco at third for sure, over Julien. Julien has no chance at third, IMO. 

They 100% need CC and Buxton to hit, though.

[TopGunn#22]

Many here have expressed their frustration at the Twins offense performance.  And to point out it's really been awful since 2020 is spot on.  Remove Nelson Cruz from the 2020 lineup and you would have had an offense as putrid as this year's.  It is indeed time to tear off the band aid.  As Mike Sixel pointed out, other than Buxton (who might not play CF next year either) we don't have an outfielder who will be with us next year.  Kepler and Gallo should be traded for anything before the deadline.  Certainly neither will be a Twin next year. 

Solano could be a nice RH bat of the bench for a contender.  Get what you can from him and play Kirilloff full time.  Once Polanco is activated either trade him right away or hope he gets hot while playing 3B and then trade him because at this point, it's Julien or bust at 2B.  We will get WORSE offensively if he is sent down to accommodate Polanco.  Larnach is trade bait.  Promote Wallner and give him the rest of this year to prove he belongs.  Deal Vazquez and promote Camargo.  It just didn't work.  Include Miranda in a package for prospects or a BP piece.  We've seen this anemic offense for FOUR consecutive seasons.  Cut bait.  Re-rig, and change course.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

1. Goldschmidt was an example. It could be somebody(s) else. There's basically nobody anyone should worry about replacing or moving. It's as straightforward as straightforward can be.

2.  But If you want to talk Goldschmidt specifically, ok. He's at .284/.369/.475 for the year. With a LONG history of stellar production, including a .981 OPS in 650 PAs as recently as last year. He's 35, so maybe that's his last great year, but he's without question better today than any current Twin. It's not even close, and he's likely to be so for another year at least. 

3. Nobody said he would "fix" this offense. I was addressing the OP's point that it wouldn't be "straightforward" to improve the offense. Well, yeah, it would. Get better hitters. That'll improve the offense, and except for SS and perhaps 2b it's pretty straightforward to put a new guy in and drop or shift the incumbent. It couldn't be MORE straightforward. Who are we worried about losing playing time? Joey Gallo? 

4. If you don't think swapping out Goldschmidt for Kepler, for example, is a straightforward way to improve the offense, then I don't know what to tell you. Or the OP author.

5. Goldschmidt specifically is a pipe dream anyway. I doubt StL trades him and if so, it won't be to the Twins. Again, he's an example of how perfectly straightforward it would be to improve the offense.

 

 

Someone needs to tell the leadership of the Yankees. Padres, and Mets they just don't understand that they need to get better players.  Go figure ... they pay these people millions of dollars/year and they are to stupid to understand how simple it is to solve their problems.

If Goldschmidt would not fix the offense, what is your point?  If he is not a solution, how is he a simple fix?

Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco also have a history of performing well but history won't win us any games now.  They are not playing well of late and neither has Goldschmidt of late.

Why don't all of the teams performing at the level of Twins just go get new players if it's so simple to get better?

Are you going to replace Lewis at 3B or Correa at SS or Kirilloff at 1B.   Do we not already have options at 2B?  Are we going to get better hitting catchers?  If you only care about getting marginally better RIGHT NOW, it's simple.  Not so simple to build a sustainable winner.  They best option they have is corner OF.  Bringing in veteran players when they have 2 guys that deserve a shot makes no sense, especially on a marginal team with numerous under performing players. 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Someone needs to tell the leadership of the Yankees. Padres, and Mets they just don't understand that they need to get better players.  Go figure ... they pay these people millions of dollars/year and they are to stupid to understand how simple it is to solve their problems.

If Goldschmidt would not fix the offense, what is your point?  If he is not a solution, how is he a simple fix?

Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco also have a history of performing well but history won't win us any games now.  They are not playing well of late and neither has Goldschmidt of late.

Why don't all of the teams performing at the level of Twins just go get new players if it's so simple to get better?

Are you going to replace Lewis at 3B or Correa at SS or Kirilloff at 1B.   Do we not already have options at 2B?  Are we going to get better hitting catchers?  If you only care about getting marginally better RIGHT NOW, it's simple.  Not so simple to build a sustainable winner.  They best option they have is corner OF.  Bringing in veteran players when they have 2 guys that deserve a shot makes no sense, especially on a marginal team with numerous under performing players. 

I think the idea, which I don't hate, is to put Goldy at first, and AK in the OF.....

I mean, it's not what I'd do....I'd put Polanco at third, Wallner in RF and Larnach in LF. If Polanco can't play third, I'd put Severino there. I'd promote Severino to AAA last week.....I would consider calling up Carmago to play C and first, or Williams to play first and AK to the OF (over Larnach, who I'm losing faith in).

[jorgenswest]

There is not a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. When I looked at the data earlier this year balance seemed important. Teams the strike out the least didn’t score as many runs as they also had less power. Teams that strike out a lot also were not among the runs scored leaders. They had power but contact seems an important part of that balance. Trading Arraez and adding Gallo destroyed that balance. If you just look at OPS Gallo’s .764 could end close to the .795 Arraez provided last year. Without the balance I don’t think it would be nearly as valuable though.

[HerbieFan]

The highest ranking being #9 says all you need know.  Adding a bat isn't going to make any difference unless the players already in house start to perform.  With the FO's recent trade history I wouldn't want them to make a trade now.  Let's be honest, this team is going nowhere...even if they win the pathetic AL Central.  Heck, if they aren't going to re-sign Sonny Gray I wouldn't be against them trading him at the deadline.  I also see no reason to continue trotting Joey Gallo out there either.  I liked the signing...signed him at the low end of his possible outcomes and he's delivered just that.  I'd prefer to see what Larnach or Wallner can do if they would just play them everyday...time to find out what the kids can do.  

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think the idea, which I don't hate, is to put Goldy at first, and AK in the OF.....

I mean, it's not what I'd do....I'd put Polanco at third, Wallner in RF and Larnach in LF. If Polanco can't play third, I'd put Severino there. I'd promote Severino to AAA last week.....I would consider calling up Carmago to play C and first, or Williams to play first and AK to the OF (over Larnach, who I'm losing faith in).

Are you thinking Polanco holds down 3B until Lewis comes back?  The idea of giving Severino a little wild but why not given how things are going.  I would also consider Prato if he continues to mash at AAA.

I think you will get your OF wish in the next 3 weeks.

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think the idea, which I don't hate, is to put Goldy at first, and AK in the OF.....

I mean, it's not what I'd do....I'd put Polanco at third, Wallner in RF and Larnach in LF. If Polanco can't play third, I'd put Severino there. I'd promote Severino to AAA last week.....I would consider calling up Carmago to play C and first, or Williams to play first and AK to the OF (over Larnach, who I'm losing faith in).

Severino, Camargo and Williams have very high strike out rates. Wallner and Larnach are better but also high. 

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

4. If you don't think swapping out Goldschmidt for Kepler, for example, is a straightforward way to improve the offense, then I don't know what to tell you. Or the OP author.

You may be understanding what I mean by straightforward, so I apologize if I wasn’t clear enough. You’re not the only one who did so, so forgive me picking on you specifically, but in your original comment, I noticed that you said that the answer isn’t straightforward before listing off a number of moves needed to justify adding Goldschmidt. Because there are a ton of considerations with a move like that.

 

A straightforward move would be “Luke Voit is our first baseman and not good. We have no high minors prospects at first base. We’ll trade for Goldschmidt and DFA Voit, or trade him for a MiLB reliever.” Adding Goldschmidt requires more permanent decisions than those two. You relocate Kirilloff. You make permanent decisions on both Gallo and Kepler. You assess Wallner and Larnach to decide whether you’ll continue to block them or give them a lane. Heck, it probably even plays into the decision as to where Julien goes when Polanco gets back, because two of this options are left and first.

 

The point of this article was to lay out the complicated decisions that go into improving at each position, because there are things at play beyond the actual hypothetical trades. Yes, I’d like to see meaningful moves, and this article isn’t excusing them not happening or saying that they shouldn’t happen. 

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Severino, Camargo and Williams have very high strike out rates. Wallner and Larnach are better but also high. 

And? This offense is terrible as is.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you thinking Polanco holds down 3B until Lewis comes back?  The idea of giving Severino a little wild but why not given how things are going.  I would also consider Prato if he continues to mash at AAA.

I think you will get your OF wish in the next 3 weeks.

I mean, no one could be worse than Miranda has been this year, so either is worth a shot at third for me, while Miranda goes down and hopefully fixes things.

Look, to all the naysayers on trying these things....the team has scored 2 or less runs in 40% of the games ( I read that on the site, so if that's totally wrong, then my argument is less sound, if it is 3 runs, my argument is still good, but not OBVIOUSLY good). That is 100% not a winning total, so possibly getting worse isn't an issue....because they aren't good enough now. There are three years of data on Gallo and Taylor and Kepler to tell us this is who they are......

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, no one could be worse than Miranda has been this year, so either is worth a shot at third for me, while Miranda goes down and hopefully fixes things.

Look, to all the naysayers on trying these things....the team has scored 2 or less runs in 40% of the games ( I read that on the site, so if that's totally wrong, then my argument is less sound, if it is 3 runs, my argument is still good, but not OBVIOUSLY good). That is 100% not a winning total, so possibly getting worse isn't an issue....because they aren't good enough now. There are three years of data on Gallo and Taylor and Kepler to tell us this is who they are......

The Twins have scored 2 runs or less in 36 out of 91 games. 39.56% of the time! 

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Twins have scored 2 runs or less in 36 out of 91 games. 39.56% of the time! 

Thanks. So, ya. Getting worse isn't a problem. They can't win with this team. Find out if you can with the next set....

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Polanco at third for sure, over Julien. Julien has no chance at third, IMO. 

They 100% need CC and Buxton to hit, though.

I've heard that a lot about Julien - can't play 3B. We want to keep his bat in the lineup when polanc returns, at least against RH starters. Why can't Julien play 3B? Arm strength? If he can't, can Polanco throw well enough to play 3B? Need to have them both in the lineup. Maybe Julien at 1B, Kirilloff in LF and Polanco at 2B? When you only have 3-5 hitters and 2 of them play the same position, you gotta get creative. 

[Craig Arko]

Improving this lineup is easy. Have the stars (Buxton, Correa) hit up to their ability. Without that, it doesn’t really matter much.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

1. Goldschmidt was an example. It could be somebody(s) else. There's basically nobody anyone should worry about replacing or moving. It's as straightforward as straightforward can be.

2.  But If you want to talk Goldschmidt specifically, ok. He's at .284/.369/.475 for the year. With a LONG history of stellar production, including a .981 OPS in 650 PAs as recently as last year. He's 35, so maybe that's his last great year, but he's without question better today than any current Twin. It's not even close, and he's likely to be so for another year at least. 

3. Nobody said he would "fix" this offense. I was addressing the OP's point that it wouldn't be "straightforward" to improve the offense. Well, yeah, it would. Get better hitters. That'll improve the offense, and except for SS and perhaps 2b it's pretty straightforward to put a new guy in and drop or shift the incumbent. It couldn't be MORE straightforward. Who are we worried about losing playing time? Joey Gallo? 

4. If you don't think swapping out Goldschmidt for Kepler, for example, is a straightforward way to improve the offense, then I don't know what to tell you. Or the OP author.

5. Goldschmidt specifically is a pipe dream anyway. I doubt StL trades him and if so, it won't be to the Twins. Again, he's an example of how perfectly straightforward it would be to improve the offense.

 

 

"There's basically nobody anyone should worry about replacing or moving. It's as straightforward as straightforward can be."

This, this.... aaaaaaaand... THIS!

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

You may be understanding what I mean by straightforward, so I apologize if I wasn’t clear enough. You’re not the only one who did so, so forgive me picking on you specifically, but in your original comment, I noticed that you said that the answer isn’t straightforward before listing off a number of moves needed to justify adding Goldschmidt. Because there are a ton of considerations with a move like that.

 

A straightforward move would be “Luke Voit is our first baseman and not good. We have no high minors prospects at first base. We’ll trade for Goldschmidt and DFA Voit, or trade him for a MiLB reliever.” Adding Goldschmidt requires more permanent decisions than those two. You relocate Kirilloff. You make permanent decisions on both Gallo and Kepler. You assess Wallner and Larnach to decide whether you’ll continue to block them or give them a lane. Heck, it probably even plays into the decision as to where Julien goes when Polanco gets back, because two of this options are left and first.

 

The point of this article was to lay out the complicated decisions that go into improving at each position, because there are things at play beyond the actual hypothetical trades. Yes, I’d like to see meaningful moves, and this article isn’t excusing them not happening or saying that they shouldn’t happen. 

You're right that there is no straightforward path. This offense isn't one stick away at an obviously open position. The Twins are 2-3 hitters away and the ones they do have all play in the IF. In fact, once Polanco and Lewis come back, the only way to play Julien is to move him to 1B and Kirilloff to the OF. Not ideal. Yet even with that, it's unlikely to help much since the vets are not performing. 

That's why I think the best bet is to do a semi teardown and do it now. Trade/DFA Gallo AND Kepler, bring up Larnach and Wallner who will be competing with each other and with maybe Kirilloff and Castro. Move Julien to 1B and Kirilloff to the OF when Polanco comes back. Play Miranda every day for 3-4 weeks at 3B while Lewis is out and see if his bat comes back. If Buxton can't play some OF, put him on the IL and hope he can in 3-4 weeks while others DH. He is not helping us now. Jeffers is your starting C and Velasquez plays 30% of the games. Give Andrew Stevenson some run in CF. Let Kirilloff, Julien, and Larnach/Wallner hit against LH pitching. They aren't going to get better unless they get a shot. 

Could this all turn into an ugly disaster? Of course. But frankly, how is that much different than what we are running out there right now? Not only that, it gives the FO insight as to who is ready to play. The current strategy runs out a least one guy who won't even be here next year in Gallo, two if you count Kepler in the unlikely to be retained group (I do), and relies pretty heavily on a 35 year old journeyman in Solano, a 32 year old occasional hit CF in MAT, and gives 400-500 ABs to a nice utility guy who shouldn't be starting for any MLB team in Castro. This makes no sense, short or long term. Change it up or just give up. 

 

[RpR]

When the Twins were winning earlier this year, they got third rate coverage on the evening sports news; if they go back to losing 100 games, they will get less coverage than Legion baseball games.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

And? This offense is terrible as is.

I think the strike outs point to more development is necessary. If Severino is striking out 33% against AA pitchers that number has to go up against major league pitchers. Camargo has 73 strike outs and 13 walks against AAA pitchers. That isn’t going to work.

The run scoring context in St. Paul leads to distorted OPS and ERA. Strike outs and walks give a better picture of readiness. They aren’t ready to help and the Twins need more balls in play. Not less.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

You may be understanding what I mean by straightforward, so I apologize if I wasn’t clear enough. You’re not the only one who did so, so forgive me picking on you specifically, but in your original comment, I noticed that you said that the answer isn’t straightforward before listing off a number of moves needed to justify adding Goldschmidt. Because there are a ton of considerations with a move like that.

 

A straightforward move would be “Luke Voit is our first baseman and not good. We have no high minors prospects at first base. We’ll trade for Goldschmidt and DFA Voit, or trade him for a MiLB reliever.” Adding Goldschmidt requires more permanent decisions than those two. You relocate Kirilloff. You make permanent decisions on both Gallo and Kepler. You assess Wallner and Larnach to decide whether you’ll continue to block them or give them a lane. Heck, it probably even plays into the decision as to where Julien goes when Polanco gets back, because two of this options are left and first.

 

The point of this article was to lay out the complicated decisions that go into improving at each position, because there are things at play beyond the actual hypothetical trades. Yes, I’d like to see meaningful moves, and this article isn’t excusing them not happening or saying that they shouldn’t happen. 

No need to apologize. 

 

I just disagree. It's pretty straightforward to me. Get better. And it doesn't seem to me complicated. 

[Dakota Diver]

Bring in Doug Meichaveich(spelling) to manage and Nelson Cruz as hitting coach! Play Buxton in CF, if he can put him on IL. Trade or DFA Kepler and Gallo. Bring up Larnach and Wallner. Play Miranda and see what we have till Lewis returns. If things aren’t better at trade deadline, become sellers! See what you can get for Gray and Polanco. Dougie M will lite a fire under everyone and he was a winner wherever he managed. If it doesn’t work out replace him this winter. See what the younger players can do so you now what to do this winter.

[Hubie29]

16 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

It gets a little easier if Buxton plays at least 2/3rds of the games in CF.  Then the DH becomes more flexible rotating  Donnie Barrels (sometimes Castro) and  Kepler/Gallo/Wallner.   For playoffs, expected roster - hoping - 
c:   Jeffers/Vasquez

1B  Kirilloff

2B. Polanco

3B. Lewis

SS.  Correa

RF.  Kepler

CF.  Buxton

LF.  Gallo

DH  Solano 

Bench:  Wallner, Castro, Julien, Taylor, 

plus 12 pitchers.   It’s far from the 1927 Yankees but it’s something - as long as Buxton can play and stay healthy.   Again - nothing happens if Correa and Buxton don’t hit.  The Twins for this season have to rely on those two bats bouncing back. 

I won't comment other than to say this is a terrible lineup and pretty much what we have used all year except Buxton being DH and Polanco hurt as usual.  These guys have proven for a couple years or more that they can't get it done. We need a major overhaul. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Hubie29
Used wrong word

[Greggory Masterson]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The is no massive backlog of CF, so I have no idea what your point is there....

Rereading that part, I see how it might be unclear. First, though, I tried to communicate that that is the position easiest to make a move, given that Taylor can just be moved to a reserve role where he’s better suited. What I meant by backlog is in the outfield overall. If Taylor is a bench player, that means that at minimum one of the current corner guys will need to be the corresponding move, and then you still need to deal with the Wallner/Larnach logjam. 

[Loops]

The division is pathetic and up for grabs. That being said if we do win the division we will go nowhere in the playoffs. We need to start figuring out a solution for (sadly) next year. Do NOT trade for Goldschmidt. He gives us exactly the type of player we already have in the lineup. Plus an extra 1B/DH is no help. One guy will not "fix" things. Start bringing up the young guys. See what they do. Our big money is tied up in Buxton and Correa. One who can really only play DH and the other is not having a great year which makes you wonder if plaguing injuries (foot) will hamper him the rest of his Twins career. There is almost nobody in the lineup who is irreplaceable. We need some contact guys. We can keep a few home run guys. Defense is great but if you can't hit and score runs it is worthless. Maybe try to go speed. Bunt. Steal bases. We need to shake things up. If nothing else make it more of an exciting game to watch. The strikeout/home run game is boring AND not working. I would rather lose 8-7 that 8-1. (Of course ideally we would win!) It is a shame to waste some of the best pitching the Twins have had in a while on such an anemic offense. Look at the lineups of our World Series teams. We had a variety of types of players. They all weren't clones of each other. We need to mix it up.

Try something new!

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, Loops said:

 Do NOT trade for Goldschmidt. He gives us exactly the type of player we already have in the lineup. Plus an extra 1B/DH is no help. 

Wait, what?

I can't see a trade for Goldschmidt happening, but...he is exactly the type of hitter we DON'T have in the lineup. 

 

 

[Karbo]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

While there is no assurance the youth will be better, it is hard to get worse than 26th. Just take the chance. 

The one I agree on is 2B. Everyone clambering for Polanco to fix the team seems to be forgetting Julien hits about as well as him, so the O isn't getting fixed buy sending him down. 

3B? Promote Severino and see what happens for a month until Lewis is back, or, and this is what I'd 100% do if I was the FO given their reticence at promoting anyone this year w/o an injury reason, put Polanco at third. 

C? Give Jeffers 2/3 of the starts. That would help.

The is no massive backlog of CF, so I have no idea what your point is there....Maybe Martin's arm is healed, he excels for a month in AAA, and he comes up, but the odds of that are about the same as the Twins winning the WS this year....and Celestino isn't ready (if ever). Stevenson isn't likely to be even close to Taylor....

I can't agree with moving Polo to 3rd. Instead I would move him to 1st. Let him get his reps at 1st while on a rehab. Keep Julian at 2nd, move AK int LF. If they can't (or won't) dump Gallo then split time with Kepler in right. Move Solano to 3rd. At least he can hit.

[William K Johnson]

Solano at first for the time being, move Kiriloff to left.    Release Gallo.   Polanco and Lewis will be back by August.   Castro and Farmer man third base until then.    Julien can't catch cold, and Miranda brings nothing to the table.    The biggest problem on this team, IMO, is Buxton at DH.    I know I am beating a dead horse here, but his current role not only takes the game's best centerfielder out of the game but blocks a Nelson Cruz type DH from hitting in the lineup as well.    

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, Loops said:

Start bringing up the young guys.

Who are the young guys you are talking about?

Larnach is 26 and has been a below average hitter since he was called up 3 years ago. Wallner is 25 and hasn't been given a chance and with the way this team has hit I don't believe this FO thinks he is a major league player.  After that, who are the young guys?

[Fat Calvin]

If there are no significant signs of improvement by the last week of July, I'd throw in the towel.  I'd trade Gray for young prospects.  And I'd fire Rocco and Derek Falvey, and turn the operation over to Thad Levine for what's left of the 2023 season and let him pick the interim manager--how about Toby G or Dougie M??  Then, in the off season, I'd search for a new manager and possibly a new president of baseball operations.  During the search I would go out of my way to avoid any and all contact with Korn Ferry. 

[Fat Calvin]

10 hours ago, Dakota Diver said:

Bring in Doug Meichaveich(spelling) to manage and Nelson Cruz as hitting coach! Play Buxton in CF, if he can put him on IL. Trade or DFA Kepler and Gallo. Bring up Larnach and Wallner. Play Miranda and see what we have till Lewis returns. If things aren’t better at trade deadline, become sellers! See what you can get for Gray and Polanco. Dougie M will lite a fire under everyone and he was a winner wherever he managed. If it doesn’t work out replace him this winter. See what the younger players can do so you now what to do this winter.

Really well put, Double D.  I couldn't agree more!!!