Improving This Lineup Is Not as Straightforward as You Think

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's the literal definition of sunk cost. I'm not expecting them to do anything, not sure how to make that more clear. I'm saying what I'd do. 

I agree with you, that is what I would do sitting at my computer, I was just saying if I was in their actual position.

[Hubie29]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

.280? I don't think you have any idea there......14 qualified outfielders (including cf) have that high an average right now. 14. Total.

I am not just speaking of qualified. If they don't have required number of AB's doesn't mean they can't continue above .280.  I count at least 40 over .280 either playing or on IL.  Plus you can add the guys not in the majors that could hit over .280.  I would say .280 isn't Ted Williams like it's only Cesar Tovar like! You can't find 3 guys like that? Cmon!

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hubie29 said:

I am not just speaking of qualified. If they don't have required number of AB's doesn't mean they can't continue above .280.  I count at least 40 over .280 either playing or on IL.  Plus you can add the guys not in the majors that could hit over .280.  I would say .280 isn't Ted Williams like it's only Cesar Tovar like! You can't find 3 guys like that? Cmon!

40 in all of baseball means easy to find? How many teams are there? And you expect one team to have three? That's your stance?

[Hubie29]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

40 in all of baseball means easy to find? How many teams are there? And you expect one team to have three? That's your stance?

Do we have to be the team that doesn't have one? And yes, that is my stance. Do something to fix the problem. Sign a career 199 hitter for 11 mil that might hit a HR every 15 at bats but overlook someone that can put the ball in play and hit .280. Baseball has gotten away from the fundamentals of putting the ball in play to trying to see how hard and far you can hit it.  I guess .280 is asking too much.

[Hubie29]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

40 in all of baseball means easy to find? How many teams are there? And you expect one team to have three? That's your stance?

I also don't know when hitting .230 -  250 became acceptable in MLB. It's pathetic

[TwinsDr2021]

For those of you that don't think the age of a prospect doesn't matter. The top 30 BA average in the majors belong to the following groups of players and when the debuted.

Age 20 - 4 players

Age 21 - 10 players

Age 22 - 3 players

Age 23 - 4 players

Age 24 - 3 players

Age 25 - 3 players (1 cuban, 1 catcher and Donovan)

Age 27 - Whit Merrifield

Age 29 - Japan player

Age 30 - Cuban player

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For those of you that don't think the age of a prospect doesn't matter. The top 30 BA average in the majors belong to the following groups of players and when the debuted.

Age 20 - 4 players

Age 21 - 10 players

Age 22 - 3 players

Age 23 - 4 players

Age 24 - 3 players

Age 25 - 3 players (1 cuban, 1 catcher and Donovan)

Age 27 - Whit Merrifield

Age 29 - Japan player

Age 30 - Cuban player

 

Zero people have made that claim. Or, if one or two have, that's about it. 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am all for just about anybody. unless I am missing something somebody needs to be cut to add another player to the 40 man, do you think that this FO is going to cut Gallo and Kepler for a completely unknown quantity? So that likely means Sands or Winder correct?

Even to get Wallner up, somebody has to go down, would that be Miranda?

No, I don't think they would add Prato to the 40 man right now.  I was merely answering the question about other possible OFers.  Larnach and Wallner are going to get first crack at an opening. 

I think you are right they are not cutting Gallo or Kepler until they have a chance to either get a prospect or someone to pick up their salary.  I see the situation being resolved in 15-20 days when either Gallo or Kepler gets traded.  If Gallo is not traded, I think there is a decent chance he gets cut.  His wRC+ is decent for the year but it's 71 for the last 8 weeks.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I thought he was clear it would be Gallo and/or Kepler. No one that understands positions is saying send down Miranda and call up an OFer......that makes zero sense. 

Actually, that could work if you make Castro the UTL IF. Wallner plays LF instead of Gallo (unless Gallo plays CF) or you take Gallo, Kepler and Wallner to play LF and RF in some combination every day. Not so great against LH pitching to be sure, but it is a way to get Wallner up before losing either Gallo or Kepler. We really do have plenty of IFs with Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Solano, Farmer and Castro. That's not a reason to keep Miranda and keep Wallner down. 

Personally, I would lose Gallo or Kepler sooner rather than later and bring up Wallner for a try. Having said that, there is no real reason we couldn't get  Wallner up now if we wanted to by simply sending Miranda down. Farmer, Solano, and Castro can handle 3B with Julien at 2B and Correa at SS until Polanco/Lewis come back. Bringing up Wallner that way and playing him would only require benching Buxton, Kepler or Gallo to give Wallner playing time. I think that's the real issue; Rocco doesn't want to bench one of those 3 regularly so there's no room to bring up Wallner and give him consistent ABs, especially with Buxton an everyday DH.   

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Actually, that could work if you make Castro the UTL IF. Wallner plays LF instead of Gallo (unless Gallo plays CF) or you take Gallo, Kepler and Wallner to play LF and RF in some combination every day. Not so great against LH pitching to be sure, but it is a way to get Wallner up before losing either Gallo or Kepler. We really do have plenty of IFs with Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Solano, Farmer and Castro. That's not a reason to keep Miranda and keep Wallner down. 

Personally, I would lose Gallo or Kepler sooner rather than later and bring up Wallner for a try. Having said that, there is no real reason we couldn't get  Wallner up now if we wanted to by simply sending Miranda down. Farmer, Solano, and Castro can handle 3B with Julien at 2B and Correa at SS until Polanco/Lewis come back. Bringing up Wallner that way and playing him would only require benching Buxton, Kepler or Gallo to give Wallner playing time. I think that's the real issue; Rocco doesn't want to bench one of those 3 regularly so there's no room to bring up Wallner and give him consistent ABs, especially with Buxton an everyday DH.   

I have no idea what Rocco wants, he doesn't have Wallner up to even choose. The only way Wallner comes up is if an OF goes down or out.

[RpR]

If they want to bring up a AAA dude who is doing real well Stevenson is better than any of those named, BUT, he plays Center Field and we have Center Fielders.

Those who say Kepler should play Center Field, he was about as error prone there as Wallner is in Right Field now, which is probably why he does not play there.

[LA Vikes Fan]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea what Rocco wants, he doesn't have Wallner up to even choose. The only way Wallner comes up is if an OF goes down or out.

You may be right but there's no reason that has to be the case. The Twins would have no trouble covering 3B without Miranda on the roster. They have Solano, Farmer, and Castro who are equally as adept in the field (perhaps more so), and all of them are hitting better than Miranda. They can play one of those three at 3B and still have two utility infielders on the bench. There's no reason that we have to wait for an OF the be traded, cut, or injured to bring up Wallner unless the issue is that Rocco doesn't want to bench Gallo or Kepler (or Buxton). 

My point here isn't that this is what I think the Twins are going to do, or maybe even should do, but they certainly can do if we want to check out Wallner before the trade deadline. It does mean consigning either Kepler or Gallo, or some combination thereof, to the bench most nights unless Buxton is going to the OF or the IL.  There's absolutely no point in bringing Wallner up unless he is going to be playing at least four or five days a week. Still, at least some folks here believe that adding Wallner to the lineup over either Gallo or Kepler would allow the team score more runs. I have to admit that I'm hopeful but a little dubious since Wallner strikes out so much in AAA. The bottom line is what we may be seeing is the result of the organization's analysis as to whether Wallner can help this lineup more than either Kepler or Gallo much more so than Wallner being "blocked" by some level of numbers game. 

[Florida Flash]

On 7/2/2023 at 8:01 PM, MABB1959 said:

Pretty good report card for Levine and company.  Not a single position player All Star.  I know the voting is skewed but not the players named.  I would say that is a D or F.  

I voted. Life long rabid Twins fan. I did not vote for one Twin. First time ever.  Unlike many many voters who strictly vote for their team, (looking at you Yankees fans...among others), I vote for whom I think is most deserving. Both leagues. However I dont vote 80 times or more which I think is totally asinine.

[Greglw3]

On 7/10/2023 at 1:14 PM, USAFChief said:

Actually, it's really very straightforward. 

There is nothing complicated, for example, by putting a Paul Goldschmidt at 1b. Nothing. It's a no brainer. You move Kirilloff somewhere in the OF. Done. You don't even need to give that 1 second of thought. What are we worried about...Gallo? Kepler? 

The Twins are giving regular playing time to Donovan Solano, MAT, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler. Willi Castro. Kyle Farmer. Hell, we've recently seen Solano hitting 4th. 

There's AMPLE opportunity to improve the lineup. Easy, low hanging fruit. 

It's pretty straightforward. Nobody is getting pushed out of anything deserved or showing huge promise. I suppose there'd be some fans clamoring for Trevor Larnach, but he's proven nothing. Earned nothing. He's currently got a lower MLB OPS than Kepler, ferpetesakes.

That's the most right on response I can think of!

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

If they want to bring up a AAA dude who is doing real well Stevenson is better than any of those named, BUT, he plays Center Field and we have Center Fielders.

Those who say Kepler should play Center Field, he was about as error prone there as Wallner is in Right Field now, which is probably why he does not play there.

Whether one thinks Stevenson can’t do well for the Twins because he’s 29 and therefore not a prospect.

Facts:

He is hitting .321, 100 points above Taylor, He has 31 stolen bases in 274 AB, half a season, or an MLB pace around 62 SB. He has 63 runs in half a season, a .400 OBP and a .907 OPS.

What more do they want a guy to do to earn a chance? Are we keeping guys like this and Wallner down because the front office screwed up ROYALLY in going into the season with Gallo and Kepler as full timers. Its just inexcusable to me and why the first firing would be Falvey. Where does the buck stop? Anywhere?

 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

cut a guy and pay him 5 million dollars to likely play for somebody else.

That scenario probably won't play out.  If at least two "somebodies" are likely to sign him, then before the Twins cut him they'd work out a trade, eating the remaining salary and receiving a prospect of some value in return, from whichever team valued him a little more.  Sunk cost, as you said, works in both directions.  That remaining salary is still in their budget and they will use it to best effect.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Do we have to be the team that doesn't have one? And yes, that is my stance. Do something to fix the problem. Sign a career 199 hitter for 11 mil that might hit a HR every 15 at bats but overlook someone that can put the ball in play and hit .280. Baseball has gotten away from the fundamentals of putting the ball in play to trying to see how hard and far you can hit it.  I guess .280 is asking too much.

You are basing you argument on a relatively meaningless stat.  OBP with me more meaningful.  OPS would be more meaningful than OBP and wRC+ would be more meaningful than BA, OBP or OPS.  One could argue that WPA is more meaningful than all of them and it's certainly more valuable than BA.  Then, there is the defensive aspect to consider.  Gallo is not only a good defender, he provided a back-up option in the event Kirilloff's wrist remained an issue.  You are using this particular stat while ignoring everything else because it suits your argument.  

The argument to cut Castro because he is the cheapest also ignores a number of other factors.  The most obvious being he has two more years of control.  His utility covering multiple positions including CF and being a switch hitter provides rather value that we can't readily replace.  We have two corner OFers that can easily take Gallo's spot.

[Major League Ready]

On 7/10/2023 at 8:41 PM, USAFChief said:

I just disagree. It's pretty straightforward to me. Get better. And it doesn't seem to me complicated. 

I think you are ignoring a few things in coming to the conclusion this is "simple"..  First, you have to assume Goldschmidt is available, and available at a price that is not absurd.

Then, you have to assume he produces to career norms.  I bet Angels fans assumed Albert Pujlos was a safe bet.  I am sure the Rays expected far more out of Nelson Cruz.  Donaldson did not work out so good and thankfully we got out of the last two years.  The last year of most of these deals is far below the player's norm.  The fact is that the last 5 weeks Goldschmidt has produced below average.  Kepler’s wRC+ is actually 10 percent higher.  He is 35 years old.  It is quite possible perhaps even likely that he will not produce to his career norms.

We also can't assume ownership will approve another $10M.  They are already at record spending. Many teams are going to be restricted on the cost of additions.  This isan assumption we can make. 

What about the $26M next year?   If he declines to league average at age 36 that money could be spent much wiser elsewhere.  It could be used for a longer term solution.  I would much rather go after an impact bat free agent under 30. OF or 1B being the best targets.  

It really simplifies it if you ignore the cost in prospects.  Lots of people said the Mahle decision was simple.  How much better off would be with Steer for another 5 years and CES has the potential to be dominant bat this lineup is missing for the next 6 years.  He would be on the ML roster right now had we played the long game instead of trading for Mahle.  If CES hits (even as a DH) to his potential, the Mahle deal is a disaster and here are pondering a similar scenario, granted a pitcher vs a hitter but a 35 y/o hitter.

All of these things are valid considerations.  So, I would not be inclined to say it’s a simple straight forward no brainer.
 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Reds have had one season in the past 10 years with more than 80 wins (83/2019).   They are in 1st place on a 90 win pace.  Just curious, why do you think they would they trade Friedl for anything other than an absurd return?  He is their highest WAR position player with 5 more years of control and they are just getting back in contention after a decade of futility.   

Most people here in Cincinnati (been here since ‘91) would tell you they haven’t been good since 1990. High standards. The FAN base is in let’s win NOW mode, even though they are supposed to be astute “in a baseball town”. The rational FO probably never considers trading Friedl. Many people probably didn’t think the Twins FO would trade Arraez after 3.5 solid years & then a batting title in his final season - right?

Reds have a log jam of talent and some decent but inconsistent young arms to go along with their line-up. Varland types. Couple young pitchers hurt through at least this month. Maybe they want a veteran arm - presence? Maeda - J Lopez - Winder? A veteran that’s not a fluent english guy might be a deterrent?

There’s been talk of other guys needing spots to come up to big club - “too many infielders” - DeLaCruz to CF has been brought up more than once, even before he left AAA. Glut of SS/infielders & ability to put the fastest guy in the game in CF for 15 years & he can throw high 90’s. Very Eric Davis like - that plays here.

Just a wish thinking deal from my point of view……after seeing Luis go, prior to this year’s success & notoriety, seems almost anything can be considered?

My main point - not stated - is we don’t need RH hitting corner outfielder, we need an everyday, LH hitting center fielder……we face WAY more RH pitchers than we do LH arms.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am all for just about anybody. unless I am missing something somebody needs to be cut to add another player to the 40 man, do you think that this FO is going to cut Gallo and Kepler for a completely unknown quantity? So that likely means Sands or Winder correct?

Even to get Wallner up, somebody has to go down, would that be Miranda?

IMO - Farmer/Castro/Solano can cover 3B til Lewis is ready. Wallner up - Miranda down!!

[Major League Ready]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO - Farmer/Castro/Solano can cover 3B til Lewis is ready. Wallner up - Miranda down!!

It could be they want Kepler and Gallo in the lineup most days to hopefully play well enough to promote a trade in the next 10-15 days?  That would not be so bad.  I can wait a couple weeks.   Kepler for sure has value if he plays the way he has the last month.  They can DFA Gallo after the deadline if they can't find a buyer.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You are basing you argument on a relatively meaningless stat.  OBP with me more meaningful.  OPS would be more meaningful than OBP and wRC+ would be more meaningful than BA, OBP or OPS.  One could argue that WPA is more meaningful than all of them and it's certainly more valuable than BA.  Then, there is the defensive aspect to consider.  Gallo is not only a good defender, he provided a back-up option in the event Kirilloff's wrist remained an issue.  You are using this particular stat while ignoring everything else because it suits your argument.  

The argument to cut Castro because he is the cheapest also ignores a number of other factors.  The most obvious being he has two more years of control.  His utility covering multiple positions including CF and being a switch hitter provides rather value that we can't readily replace.  We have two corner OFers that can easily take Gallo's spot.

Lets be honest, BA is not a relatively meaningless stat, all the best players in the league can put the bat on the ball and have a decent to good batting average, yes there are a few players that hit below .260 and are still considered the top players. BA can be over come with a high OBP or even a high SLG but at the end of the day you can basically use BA to decide how good a player is.

[laloesch]

50 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Lets be honest, BA is not a relatively meaningless stat, all the best players in the league can put the bat on the ball and have a decent to good batting average, yes there are a few players that hit below .260 and are still considered the top players. BA can be over come with a high OBP or even a high SLG but at the end of the day you can basically use BA to decide how good a player is.

Thank you.

[GeorgiaBaller]

On 7/10/2023 at 5:50 PM, jorgenswest said:

There is not a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. When I looked at the data earlier this year balance seemed important. Teams the strike out the least didn’t score as many runs as they also had less power. Teams that strike out a lot also were not among the runs scored leaders. They had power but contact seems an important part of that balance. Trading Arraez and adding Gallo destroyed that balance. If you just look at OPS Gallo’s .764 could end close to the .795 Arraez provided last year. Without the balance I don’t think it would be nearly as valuable though.

Good observation.  The years the Astros won or went deep in the playoffs, they were in the top 5 for least strikeouts.  Contact is infinitely more important in the playoffs where games are usually lower in overall run production.  Let’s don’t forget Joe Mauer made his name with contact, line drives and minimal strikeouts.  He also drove in runs with sac flies when called for.  An all or nothing approach gives you lots less baserunners—not to mention boring games