Pablo Lopez is Better than His ERA

[Ted Wiedmann]

A 4.41 ERA may seem disappointing on the surface, but diving a little deeper into Pablo Lopez’s numbers show he’s pitched quite a bit better than that.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Through Pablo Lopez’s first three starts as a Minnesota Twin, he looked to be the next Venezuelan sensation to come through this organization. However, a 4.25 ERA in May and a 5.04 ERA so far in June seem to tell a different story for the Twins’ starter. But what if we look past that big earned runs average stat? 

The most significant change in Pablo Lopez’s game this year has been his ability to generate swings and misses. Lopez’s 30.1% K% ranks fifth in all of baseball among qualified starting pitchers, and his 23.3% K-BB% ranks third in the same qualifier. Lopez is also experiencing career highs in chase% at 36.2% and swing and miss% at 29.9%, compared to the league average at 28.4% and 24.8%, respectively. Pablo also has career bests in zone contact% 77.4% and chase contact% 55.1%, compared to the league average of 82.0% and 58.1%. 

Why is this important? Striking hitters out is the most valuable skill a pitcher can possess. Infield bleeders and pop-up jam shots don’t exist on strikeouts. Neither does hard contact or home runs. I don’t believe it is a coincidence that of the top 30 pitchers in fWAR, only eight have a below-average strikeout rate. 
 
Obviously, the counterpoint to all of this is that strikeouts are great, but the objective is not to give up runs, and Lopez has roughly a league average runs per game allowed. Well, that doesn’t all have to be attributed to Lopez. 

For this, I’ll refer to Carlos Correa’s favorite stat on Baseball Savant, xwOBA. xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average, measures the culmination of expected outcomes based on the quality of contact, in this case, given up by a pitcher. When you remove defense from the equation, Lopez’s .280 xwOBA is the 83rd percentile among qualified starters in baseball, with the league average being .316, meaning he doesn’t allow much hard contact. 

Taking this one step further, we can measure his entire performance by adding his strikeout, walk, and hit-by-pitch results to his xwOBA into a single stat, expected ERA (xERA). Pablo Lopez’s xERA is currently 3.15, a much better mark than his 4.41 ERA. Out of pitchers allowing 200 balls in play, Lopez’s +1.26 difference in ERA vs. xERA is the seventh highest in MLB, just ahead of Yu Darvish and Sandy Alcantara.  

Defense removed statistics apply particularly to Twins’ pitchers because the Twins’ infield ranks 29th in outs above average (OAA) with -15, and their outfield ranks 22nd in OAA at -3. Most notably, the Twins’ -17 OAA to left-handed hitters ranks 30th, with the 29th team having only -7 OAA to LHH, implying the right side of the infield is a huge issue. Being a pitching and defense team without playing defense is pretty challenging. 

The last point I want to make is that Lopez seems on the wrong side of variance. In 2023 Pablo Lopez’s LOB% is 67.9%, well short of his career average of 72.0% and well below the 2023 league average of 71.9%. LOB% tends to be a highly volatile statistic, and given both his career LOB% and the metrics presented earlier, I would bet on this number settling around league average by the end of the season. 

Pablo Lopez is producing similarly to the elite pitchers in baseball in many categories, and most importantly, ones that tend to be more predictive than ERA. It’s easy to see a big four in front of his ERA and assume Lopez pitched poorly this season, but if looked deeper, the Twins have gotten everything out of Pablo they could’ve hoped for this year. 

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[Karbo]

I've always liked Lopez. I hope some of the issue so far is getting adjusted to the move, along with pretty bad defense behind him. BTW, at the beginning of the season wasn't the team expected be a top half defensive team? And what about an outfield that was supposed to be one of the best?

[Ted Wiedmann]

3 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I've always liked Lopez. I hope some of the issue so far is getting adjusted to the move, along with pretty bad defense behind him. BTW, at the beginning of the season wasn't the team expected be a top half defensive team? And what about an outfield that was supposed to be one of the best?

MAT and Kepler have both been as advertised defensively. Joey Gallo and Willi Castro have been below average defenders in the outfield this season according to OAA. 

Buxton not playing any outfield has a lot to do with that as well. 

[rusty boots]

This guy stinks shoulda kept Arraez 

[mikelink45]

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

[OvertheHill]

Thanks for the deep dive Ted. It helps to confirm what I'm thinking when I'm watching him pitch, mainly, that he's mostly doing a good job out there. Looks the part, anyway.

 

Curious - if the defense behind him isn't really helping lately, how do we expect that to change for the better? Castro, who I like for flexibility and energy on the base paths, doesn't project to be above average at any position. Julien is a work in progress, and whoever replaces Kepler (eventually) likely won't be a better fielder.

[DJL44]

He's also eating a ton of innings, on pace for over 190 innings pitched this season. By FIP he's been as good as Joe Ryan.

[Ted Wiedmann]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

Evaluating performance through strikeouts as soft contact is looking at results. It's just results on a per batter basis instead of a per game basis and therefore giving us a much larger sample to look at.

[rusty boots]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

So what you're saying is Lopez is not the guy from his first 5 starts (which he was paid for) but he's actually closer to his other 105 starts in the MLB as a 4-5? That's crazy!

[Ted Wiedmann]

9 minutes ago, OvertheHill said:

Thanks for the deep dive Ted. It helps to confirm what I'm thinking when I'm watching him pitch, mainly, that he's mostly doing a good job out there. Looks the part, anyway.

 

Curious - if the defense behind him isn't really helping lately, how do we expect that to change for the better? Castro, who I like for flexibility and energy on the base paths, doesn't project to be above average at any position. Julien is a work in progress, and whoever replaces Kepler (eventually) likely won't be a better fielder.

Based on the current roster construction I don't see a clear path to better defense other than unprecedented improvements from a couple players.

Gallo has been unexpectedly underwhelming defensively so far this year (-2 OAA) so maybe there's a chance that's just variance and his metrics improve. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

Have to agree - he’s probably been behind Ober. But still very solid. 

I like him and he’s a really good pitcher. But, assuming health for both players, he’s not as valuable - both overall and specifically/more importantly to this Twin’s ball club/franchise as Arraez.  
 

Sorry, my earlier version left out the Arraez part.

[twinzcynic]

I too don't care about actual runs! I also don't care that (given his prior history and the Twin's recent history with similar pitchers) he will likely be injured for a large chunk of time with a year or so. 

Also, I just read an article on here that Pagan is an asset. I totally agree! This front office can't do anything wrong! 

Can I write for Twins Daily now?

[Ted Wiedmann]

8 minutes ago, rusty boots said:

So what you're saying is Lopez is not the guy from his first 5 starts (which he was paid for) but he's actually closer to his other 105 starts in the MLB as a 4-5? That's crazy!

If you think 17 million per is top tier starter money I'm not sure what to tell you.

He's significantly changed his pitch arsenal from when he was with the Marlins, he's striking out hitters at elite levels while maintaining low walk and home run rates. 

Again, the point of the piece is that his ERA will likely come down closer to pitchers that he performs similarly to in per batter metrics.

[Ted Wiedmann]

7 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

I too don't care about actual runs! I also don't care that (given his prior history and the Twin's recent history with similar pitchers) he will likely be injured for a large chunk of time with a year or so. 

Also, I just read an article on here that Pagan is an asset. I totally agree! This front office can't do anything wrong! 

Can I write for Twins Daily now?

Yes

[Ted Wiedmann]

12 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Have to agree - he’s probably been behind Ober. But still very solid. 

I like him and he’s a really good pitcher. But, assuming health for both players, he’s not as valuable - both overall and specifically/more importantly to this Twin’s ball club/franchise.

Not sure I'd go that far, but Ober has been good this season. My concern with Ober is it's tough to be an extreme fly ball pitcher and maintain as low of a HR/FB% as he is. If that number creeps toward league average at all his number could see significant regression. Low walk totals help a lot but it's something to monitor. 

Also, we probably shouldn't assume health for any pitcher, but Ober in particular has had a real tough time with injuries. 

[rusty boots]

9 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

If you think 17 million per is top tier starter money I'm not sure what to tell you.

He's significantly changed his pitch arsenal from when he was with the Marlins, he's striking out hitters at elite levels while maintaining low walk and home run rates. 

Again, the point of the piece is that his ERA will likely come down closer to pitchers that he performs similarly to in per batter metrics.

Ok Ted

[Ted Wiedmann]

4 minutes ago, rusty boots said:

Ok Ted

Glad I could help 

[wornsmooth]

1 hour ago, rusty boots said:

This guy stinks shoulda kept Arraez 

He is good pitcher. It can be argued that Twins would be better off with Arraez, but it is unfair to say  he "stinks".

[Schmoeman5]

So don't know how the measurements are. But show the results from that 28-32 pitch inning that Lopez seems to have every start. I'll wager those innings tell a different story. He is exactly what he was in Miami. A .500 pitcher who the only real difference I can see is he has mastered the "sweeper"

[Ted Wiedmann]

4 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So don't know how the measurements are. But show the results from that 28-32 pitch inning that Lopez seems to have every start. I'll wager those innings tell a different story. He is exactly what he was in Miami. A .500 pitcher who the only real difference I can see is he has mastered the "sweeper"

The difference between Marlins Pablo Lopez and this year is he's been able to greatly increase his K% while simultaneously keeping his career HR/FB% and BB% the same. He's also allowing a lot less hard contact and added almost 2 MPH on his fastball.

xwOBA in 2022 was .301 versus .279 this season and his xERA was 3.75 in 2022 versus 3.11 this year.

The swing and miss and quality of contact numbers he currently has are representative of a pitcher with a ERA in the low 3s rather than mid 4s. Expect the ERA to come down if he continues this level of pitching. 

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

There are 15 teams in the American league.

He is 7th in the American league in innings, 3rd in the American league in K's, 16th in the American league in WHIP, 27th in the American league in ERA. To me that puts him in the range of top 15 to top 25 pitchers in the whole league.

and that isn't a #4 or #5 starter, he is a 2 or 3 on  decent staff and a 3 good staff.

I am not saying this to defend the trade (which I liked and still do) but you and others are making it sound like he is Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy or Archer and he isn't, he is the type of pitcher we have been wanting for a while and now that he is here people are pissed he isn't Valdez or Cole.

[Nashvilletwin]

41 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Not sure I'd go that far, but Ober has been good this season. My concern with Ober is it's tough to be an extreme fly ball pitcher and maintain as low of a HR/FB% as he is. If that number creeps toward league average at all his number could see significant regression. Low walk totals help a lot but it's something to monitor. 

Also, we probably shouldn't assume health for any pitcher, but Ober in particular has had a real tough time with injuries. 

Sorry, I meant as valuable as Arraez. I made the edit above. 
 

Having said that, it’s an interesting question of whether one would trade Ober for Lopez straight up (considering cost of course).  At the moment, I’d probably stick with Lopez. 

[Whitey333]

First I like Lopez even though I don't like the trade.  He's not an ace but still good.  Second I agree that wins and losses are the most important team stat that us reflected on all players performance.  It also just drives me nuts how people invent and twist around stats to make a player appear much better than he is or much worse for those Aaraez haters.  That's like saying since the Twins are in first place, even with a sub 500 record,  that they are a first place team.  Come on!  The Twins are what they are.  A very boring 500 team that is stagnant as it relies and waits on their oft-faltering veterans.

[Ted Wiedmann]

1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry, I meant as valuable as Arraez. I made the edit above. 
 

Having said that, it’s an interesting question of whether one would trade Ober for Lopez straight up (considering cost of course).  

We don't have any insight on internal matters like clubhouse impact or leadership, however there seems to be a consensus among both Twins and Marlins reporters that Pablo is a fantastic person, much like Arraez is. Which isn't the best indication of things but also all we have to use. 

Also interesting, Arraez is at 2.7 fWAR this season and Lopez is at 2.2. 

As for Ober vs. Lopez, personally, Lopez is probably two tiers ahead of Ober for me, even if we're factoring money. 

[Danchat]

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There are 15 teams in the American league.

He is 7th in the American league in innings, 3rd in the American league in K's, 16th in the American league in WHIP, 27th in the American league in ERA. To me that puts him in the range of top 15 to top 25 pitchers in the whole league.

and that isn't a #4 or #5 starter, he is a 2 or 3 on  decent staff and a 3 good staff.

I am not saying this to defend the trade (which I liked and still do) but you and others are making it sound like he is Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy or Archer and he isn't, he is the type of pitcher we have been wanting for a while and now that he is here people are pissed he isn't Valdez or Cole.

Exactly, I think he winds up as a #2 or 3 starter. While there have been plenty of pitchers who have consistently underperformed their FIP, I feel confident about Lopez's ERA regressing to the mean. I am willing to predict he gets super hot in August or September and ends up with an ERA under 3.8, if not lower.

[Schmoeman5]

15 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

The difference between Marlins Pablo Lopez and this year is he's been able to greatly increase his K% while simultaneously keeping his career HR/FB% and BB% the same. He's also allowing a lot less hard contact and added almost 2 MPH on his fastball.

xwOBA in 2022 was .301 versus .279 this season and his xERA was 3.75 in 2022 versus 3.11 this year.

The swing and miss and quality of contact numbers he currently has are representative of a pitcher with a ERA in the low 3s rather than mid 4s. Expect the ERA to come down if he continues this level of pitching. 

But you're doing an overall measurement.  And I know his swing and miss rate, whiff rate. I get all that. But those are cumulative results. What you're not factoring in is the OBI. The one innining he falls off the rails. And they're as regular as a sunrise. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

9 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

First I like Lopez even though I don't like the trade.  He's not an ace but still good.  Second I agree that wins and losses are the most important team stat that us reflected on all players performance.  It also just drives me nuts how people invent and twist around stats to make a player appear much better than he is or much worse for those Aaraez haters.  That's like saying since the Twins are in first place, even with a sub 500 record,  that they are a first place team.  Come on!  The Twins are what they are.  A very boring 500 team that is stagnant as it relies and waits on their oft-faltering veterans.

I'm not sure how this pertains to anything I wrote, but the intention wasn't to say the Twins are more than what they are or to discount anything Luis Arraez has done this year. 

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Gallo has been unexpectedly underwhelming defensively so far this year (-2 OAA) so maybe there's a chance that's just variance and his metrics improve. 

This 👆

A good week has the Twins outfield back at average statistically. Defensive numbers are understood to have a lot of noise.

The infield is a visual nightmare and the numbers back that up. 

And Polanco is not fixing this with his return. He is part of the problem. His defense at 2B is vastly overrated by the Twins faithful.

[danielp19653]

Isn't this the same argument that's been made for Pagan the last two years and Kepler the last 3 years? At what point do we accept that some people will never play as well as their advanced analytics suggest? Some people just have some issue that undermines it, Kepler hits a lot of balls hard straight up or down which wrecks his stats, Pagan can't help himself but to throw a pitch down the middle whenever a game is close, Lopez can't help but randomly implode for an inning every game or two. Not saying he's bad or the contract is anything that should be a pain point, but maybe we should stop trying to suggest that everyone is magically going to improve and they simply are what they are.

[Ted Wiedmann]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

But you're doing an overall measurement.  And I know his swing and miss rate, whiff rate. I get all that. But those are cumulative results. What you're not factoring in is the OBI. The one innining he falls off the rails. And they're as regular as a sunrise. 

I did mention that his LOB% is a lot lower than what is has been throughout his career. I think those "blowup" innings are what you're referring to when there's a walk, then a couple bleeders and bloops and all of a sudden there's 2 runs on the board. 

Personally I tend to chalk those up to variance, I don't think anything changes with Pablo in those innings, just some batted balls that find grass. I think those generally even out over time.

Aaron Nola is having the same thing happen to him right now too. He doesn't get worse for one inning, sometimes baseball just does its thing.