The Joey Gallo Reclamation Project Has Been a Failure

[Mahoning]

He just popped out with the bases loaded against the Tigers, but at least he hit the ball, which is rare. He and Buxton in the middle of the lineup are death to the offense -- whiff, whiff, whiff. He's 30 and any contact between his bat and a pitched ball is purely coincidental. Yet there he is in the lineup almost every day. The Twins will finish third.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Joey Gallo’s (much like Max Kepler) calling card was also a plus fielding corner outfielder. Both Gallo and Kepler have been very average at best in the outfield. Gallo has -1 OAA in both RF and LF, with a hot start, he’s hitting his career average on the season. See if they can trade him and Kepler for anything leading up to the deadline, and then DFA them both.

it might get worse with Larnach and Wallner in the outfield, but not much, and at least then they’re developing future players instead of giving innings to past their prime vets.

[Mahoning]

Before today his BA with RISP was .184. Seven hits and 19 strikeouts. Whiff. He's not going to get better.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I do have one argument with the OP. If the Gallo reclamation project is viewed as a failure, was the author’s expectations set too high? Why would Gallo’s career average be seen as a failure?

[Brandon]

I’m going to argue the opposite here.  If his defense is as advertised then he has been exactly what he is supposed to be at this point.  He is slumping so you can argue to give Larnarch more playing time while he works through his slump.  But Gallo still has 20 XBH in 167 AB for a +3.  Larnarch has 13 XBH in 152 AB for a -2.  (1 XBH per 10 AB = 0. In case you are wondering). The same stat holds for walk rates too.  Gallo has  27 BB in 167 AB for a + 10 and Larnarch has 23 in 152 for a + 8. Both are doing well here.  Gallo is the better defender. He still needs to hit .220 to be valuable offensively and he isn’t.  Larnarch hasn’t run away with the job yet either as he would be the starter now if he was hitting .110-.120 OPS points higher.  The problem is consistency.  Gallo has a similar OPS to Solano but Solano has been consistent.  So while arguing for less playing time for Gallo is fair, his OPS is still in an acceptable range overall.  And if his defense is solid he still has value.  But he does need to break out of his current slump and soon.

[Maybebaby]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s the second derivative of the FO’s moves that really hurt.

Trading Kepler and not signing Gallo would’ve opened up the cash to acquire another starter to fill the void caused by the disastrous trade for the injured Mahle (whom some of us TDers predicted never would be an effective innings eater given his pre trade medicals).  Instead we were idiotically “forced” into trading Arraez for Lopez.  It’s laughable to think how much better off this team would be with Arraez playing 1B every day, Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner as our corner OFs, and the $ savings from Kepler and Gallo, plus the retained trade capital of Steer and CES, utilized in a different way to bolster the rotation. Talk about squandering scarce resources….our FO really outdoes itself in that regard.

All great points, nicely done and RIGHT ON!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

22 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I’m going to argue the opposite here.  If his defense is as advertised then he has been exactly what he is supposed to be at this point.  He is slumping so you can argue to give Larnarch more playing time while he works through his slump.  But Gallo still has 20 XBH in 167 AB for a +3.  Larnarch has 13 XBH in 152 AB for a -2.  (1 XBH per 10 AB = 0. In case you are wondering). The same stat holds for walk rates too.  Gallo has  27 BB in 167 AB for a + 10 and Larnarch has 23 in 152 for a + 8. Both are doing well here.  Gallo is the better defender. He still needs to hit .220 to be valuable offensively and he isn’t.  Larnarch hasn’t run away with the job yet either as he would be the starter now if he was hitting .110-.120 OPS points higher.  The problem is consistency.  Gallo has a similar OPS to Solano but Solano has been consistent.  So while arguing for less playing time for Gallo is fair, his OPS is still in an acceptable range overall.  And if his defense is solid he still has value.  But he does need to break out of his current slump and soon.

His defense isn’t as advertised, it’s decent, but not good, let alone the gold glove caliber reputation being thrown around in the offseason. He had a couple 3 and 4 OAA seasons, but this year negative 2.

the reclamation project wasn’t a failure. He’s hitting his career average after having a catastrophic season last year. He has been reclaimed.

that doesn’t make Gallo a good player, or a good offseason signing.

He’s an $11M replacement level player.

Solano is $2M replacement level player, who is by the way, outhitting Gallo, and is not another left handed hitting outfielder.

 

[DocBauer]

Just easier to put my thoughts in to individual points:

1] Knee jerk reaction to the Gallo signing was bewilderment and anger. A lot of it was recency bias I can admit. But then I read, listened, and reflected. He was still good and productive and dangerous as recently as 2021, but that gets lost in his horrendous 2022. With the ability to play 3 spots well, and a career quad slash of. 198/ .324/ .468/ .792, a return to previous form after a really bad season suddenly made sense to me. You live with the K's, but get a legitimate 20DBLs/30HR .800 OPS bat. The shot was worth it, especially for $11M if you guess right.

2] I didn't buy in keeping Kepler at that point. Once again, while I disagreed and would have trusted in my less expensive, younger, and higher ceiling talent than the declining Kepler, I could at least understand the FO worried about Kirilloff and Larnach coming off injuries, was Wallner truly ready, was Gordon for real after his 2022 second half. I would have moved on, saved $, spent it elsewhere, and trusted in my younger players. But at least I understood the FO thinking.

3] Flash forward to today, nearing the end of June, and both "experiments" have been a failure. Gallo, as pointed out, looked really good in April on a rebound, but has been steadily declining ever since. And despite a recent 7 day surge by Kepler, he's still batting around .190 dating back to mid 2022.

Right now, 26yo Castro, he also of high K's, pop but not great power, possessing speed that is much needed, is far and away leading Gallo and Kepler by 50 points plus in BA. He also beats both veterans in OB%. And while he's behind in SLG...to be expected...his OPS is behind Gallo, but ahead of Kepler. And beyond the speed and SB factor that he's brought, he can competently play 3 spots and is showing signs of being the same in CF, which Gallo can't really play any longer, and Kepler doesn't want to.

4] Let's take a further dive:

Larnach, despite hit and cold and some struggles, and a pneumonia IL stint, beats both veterans in AVG, as well as OB%. He's behind in SLG, but almost identical to Kepler in OPS, and behind Gallo. BTW, his current ML career numbers, still a somewhat SSS all things considered, is not far off from his 2023 numbers. While not a finished product, or what we want to see going forward, he's still only 26yo, has battled some injuries, is healthy now, and actually offers potential improvement over the veterans that he's pretty much matching now.

BTW, despite only a .255 AVG with St Paul this year, his other quad lines are .391/ .829/ .920. He really doesn't have anything left to really prove at that level.

Digging even deeper, it would be foolish to compare Wallner's 2023 ML numbers against anyone as they are ONLY 11 games, and MVP caliber. BUT, in 76 games over 2022-2023, we have almost a half season to compare with, though still a bit SSS I admit. But in those 76 games he's producing. 263/ .378/ .434/ .812. GRANTED some regression would probably take place, but even still, the 25yo has some nice ability and could easily outperform the production we're seeing from both Gallo and Kepler, now, and in the future.

Another BTW, his numbers for St Paul this season are .300/ .418/ .545/ .963. In what world is a 25yo producing like that still sitting in AAA while a pair of non-producing veterans are contributing to an offensive production issue at the ML level?

5] It's time to dispel the "depth issue". Even IF we accept the idea of Gallo being a smart flier with potential to play out well, even IF we accept keeping Kepler as insurance/hope due to questions about the "readiness" of younger players, the numbers tell us two very sure things:

a] Both players are seriously underperforming and blocking younger talent with their presence, and...

b] That depth is now an illusion, if it was EVER a reality as Kirilloff and Larnach are both healthy. Wallner looks ready, Castro is pretty much outperforming the vets, and if someone gets hurt, or someone suddenly goes south at the plate, there's a couple of AAAA journeymen sitting at St Paul to at least chip in and help if actually needed. (Any possible return of Gordon is being ignored at this point).

So if Gallo and Kepler were indeed gone, let's examine the "depth" issue closer. Larnach and Wallner are the corner OF. Castro can help in LF, which he's done all year. Kirilloff can also cover both OF corners with Solano at 1B, Miranda as well at some point, and MAYBE a shot for the late blooming and monster AAA bat of Williams getting a shot at some point. 

Andrew Stevenson is absolutely destroying AAA, .321/ .395/ .494/ .889 with 26 SB in 29 attempts. And he's reported to be a very good defensive OF. And he'd be the FIFTH OF in this scenario, IF he was even needed. If ALL of his numbers dropped a FULL 100 points at the ML level, he'd STILL be matching the current numbers being produced by Gallo and Kepler. Think about that for a minute!

Mark Contreras, also a very good defensive OF who can play all 3 spots, is having himself a very solid season for St Paul, maybe one of his best, but not matching Stevenson. But even if things just went completely south, for some inexplicable reason, he'd be the SIXTH OF in line to see any time.

Can we just now accept that any "depth" issue is an illusion at this point in regard to holding on to non-producing veterans who aren't part of the future, won't be back, and who's contracts are already a sunk cost? 

6] NONE of this is to say the Gallo idea was a bad one. NONE of this is to say Gallo and Kepler are bad guys, or had poor careers, or to admonish them in any way. It actually saddens me to see Kepler decline and go. But this IS REALITY of both Gallo, and Kepler, and the state of the Twins corner OF situation.

The Gallo experiment didn't work. Neither did the keeping Kepler experiment work. And when something isn't working, it's time to move on and try something new. Especially when you have younger, less expensive options under team control who either already are, or could be soon out performing them.

[Cris E]

7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s the second derivative of the FO’s moves that really hurt.

Trading Kepler and not signing Gallo would’ve opened up the cash to acquire another starter to fill the void caused by the disastrous trade for the injured Mahle (whom some of us TDers predicted never would be an effective innings eater given his pre trade medicals).  Instead we were idiotically “forced” into trading Arraez for Lopez.  It’s laughable to think how much better off this team would be with Arraez playing 1B every day, Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner as our corner OFs, and the $ savings from Kepler and Gallo, plus the retained trade capital of Steer and CES, utilized in a different way to bolster the rotation. Talk about squandering scarce resources….our FO really outdoes itself in that regard.

The Arraez-Lopez trade was not about money, it was about trying to build up a weak rotation from a position of strength. When the deal was made they didn't have a veteran pitcher signed past 2023, and of the kids they controlled only Ryan was looking like a solid bet to be more than average.  The Marlins had a pile of good starting pitching and they wanted Arraez specifically, to the point where they added very good prospects to get him. Both of those guys had a couple year of arb left and were going to cost a bunch to keep in the long term.  Not a money move.

But let's play along with the money fantasy: who do you sign? Billions of dollars went to free agent contracts last winter and I gotta tell you that Lopez has been as good as most. Degrom, 5 years $185m, Tommy John. Verlander, 2 years $86m, injured over the winter, only 9 starts, 4.50 ERA.  Rodon, 6 years $162m, injured. Kershaw was only going to sign with the Dodgers, so the money isn't the point with him but he has been pretty good (15 starts, 3.61 ERA). Bassitt  3 years $63m, 15 starts 4.32 ERA. Syndergaard 1 year, $13m, 12 starts 55 innings, 7.16 ERA, terrible. Wainwright was only going to re-sign with the Cards and has already announced this is his last year, but he's been terrible too (6.56 ERA.) 

That's not any cherry picking, that's all the starting pitchers in the first list of top 2022 free agents I came across. After almost half a season one guy has taken the ball every time out and produced an ERA under 4.00. One.  Lopez hasn't missed a start, is third in the Al in strikeouts and is sporting a 4.41 ERA, so he's not perfect, but he's here. And at 27 he's a better bet to improve than 34 year old Bassitt over the next four years, which is how long we extended him.

Even more money talk: if that insurmountable mountain of wasted capital didn't stop them from signing Correa then it didn't "force" them to trade Luis. They had cash on hand and didn't like the free agent options. Hindsight has proven them largely correct.

 

 

 

[David Maro]

Gallo is and was a bad signing,but fits the team perfectly. Rocco loves players who swing for the downs. The whole team doesn't care how many times they strike out. The game yesterday was a prime example of that. They hit 2 solo shots,along with 13 strike outs. And we all know what the final score was. Since letting Eddie walk LF is a plug and play position. The trade for Lopez has proven to be not good,because they gave him the extension before he showed who he is. He seems to blow up in 1 inning and puts the team behind early. Now the team has an over priced player just like Gallo,Correa and Buxton. Just like years ago signing Mauer to 10 and the last 4 years having a part time player who hit singles. Now that I think about it that may be why they didn't sign Arraez.

[stringer bell]

If the Twins had a .300 hitter wth good contact skills and decent power playing a corner opposite three-true-outcomes Gallo, then it would have made sense to take a chance on Gallo. Instead they have a guy with a limited upside who is prone to slumps and has a history of not hitting left handed pitching as the compliment to Gallo. 

Gallo is going to have moments if he is allowed to keep getting playing time, but he's also going to hit around .200 with very little offensive value besides his power.

In the end there is too little production from the corner outfield. If the Twins want to be more than a borderline contender, they need more than Gallo fairly frequent walks and homers.

[insagt1]

The strikeout is the most useless out in baseball. Nothing happens and you don't give the opposition a chance to make a mistake. You don't hit into that many DP's to justify any 'value' of a strikeout. Twins have blown so many scoring opps with strikeouts by the boatload.

Gallo is actually worse than Sano ever was. He needs to be gone by the ASG. Time to give Miranda another shot. Also how about Stevenson? What could it hurt? See what he might be able to do. Kepler can't hit but occasionally he gets a hot streak. The Gallo signing was not a good one, but I guess they were hoping to catch lightning in a bottle...change of scenery has really helped Aaron Hicks for example. But you can't keep playing 2 guys who have not hit over .140 for over a month. (Joey and Buck)

[Nashvilletwin]

5 hours ago, Cris E said:

The Arraez-Lopez trade was not about money, it was about trying to build up a weak rotation from a position of strength. When the deal was made they didn't have a veteran pitcher signed past 2023, and of the kids they controlled only Ryan was looking like a solid bet to be more than average.  The Marlins had a pile of good starting pitching and they wanted Arraez specifically, to the point where they added very good prospects to get him. Both of those guys had a couple year of arb left and were going to cost a bunch to keep in the long term.  Not a money move.

But let's play along with the money fantasy: who do you sign? Billions of dollars went to free agent contracts last winter and I gotta tell you that Lopez has been as good as most. Degrom, 5 years $185m, Tommy John. Verlander, 2 years $86m, injured over the winter, only 9 starts, 4.50 ERA.  Rodon, 6 years $162m, injured. Kershaw was only going to sign with the Dodgers, so the money isn't the point with him but he has been pretty good (15 starts, 3.61 ERA). Bassitt  3 years $63m, 15 starts 4.32 ERA. Syndergaard 1 year, $13m, 12 starts 55 innings, 7.16 ERA, terrible. Wainwright was only going to re-sign with the Cards and has already announced this is his last year, but he's been terrible too (6.56 ERA.) 

That's not any cherry picking, that's all the starting pitchers in the first list of top 2022 free agents I came across. After almost half a season one guy has taken the ball every time out and produced an ERA under 4.00. One.  Lopez hasn't missed a start, is third in the Al in strikeouts and is sporting a 4.41 ERA, so he's not perfect, but he's here. And at 27 he's a better bet to improve than 34 year old Bassitt over the next four years, which is how long we extended him.

Even more money talk: if that insurmountable mountain of wasted capital didn't stop them from signing Correa then it didn't "force" them to trade Luis. They had cash on hand and didn't like the free agent options. Hindsight has proven them largely correct.

 

 

 

Your points are very valid. Bassit is probably the one I most wanted over the winter.  Having said that, there is still a market for other tradable starters. Someone smarter than I, and you are respectfully are among those, could identify who those might have been.

The gist of my comment, though, is that the saved cash plus those two players plus possibly other assets might have been utilized differently without having to move our best player, fan favorite and overall spark plug (btw, who is likely the biggest reason for the Marlins complete turnaround and being 11 games over .500). The trade for Lopez (I like Lopez a lot, but have the under on Salas and the other lottery prospect) first and foremost was precipitated by the lack of faith in Mahle and Maeda being able to soak up innings. So the trade for Mahle was the key precipitator.  Not moving Kepler and the signing of Gallo just contributed to the inability to consider other alternatives to shore up an increasingly evident risky rotation.

[Dr Katz]

The Whole Twins team strikes out way too much for a professional squad that is supposed to know what a strike zone is. Still in first place, let's keep this talent together for the season and with a winning streak of some sort, maybe things get better for the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Cant give up yet only half way through the season. The manager must get fired up and give the team a kick start soon though before it's too late. 

[RedLeg44]

Son…We are in a pennant race, we need a hitter up here.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Brandon said:

But he does need to break out of his current slump and soon.

It's not really a slump - it's a complete inability to hit changeups. They are feeding him a steady diet of changeups, he knows they are coming and he can't hit them. I think he has been getting a little unlucky with the looking strikeouts - some should have been walks - but right now he is completely neutralized by even mediocre changeups. Dan Gladden said in the radio broadcast with the gist of "If I was a pitcher facing Gallo and I didn't have a changeup I'd come up with one in a hurry."

[TwinsDr2021]

Wasn't a fan of the signing. but failure might be a bit harsh. He helped the Twins get to an early center division league and was pretty good fill in at 1B until AK was healthy. That alone is worth a better than failure grade.

He looks worse because of the failures of Buxton, Correa Gordon, Miranda, larnach and Kepler. If they all are playing average, Gallo becomes a very valuable bench/spot starter. With his OBP and power, but that didn't happen, they didn't cut Kepler and give Wallner a real chance, so everything looks bad offensively.

[RpR]

Two weeks from now we will know better who is what, and what goes where.

We beat the Yankees and Astros, although those starting teams are changed, no reason they cannot do the same in the next two weeks.

[Minny505]

On 6/25/2023 at 7:13 AM, Riverbrian said:

That first month... The Gallo signing looked brilliant. 

It wasn't.

[Cris E]

I have already written about how the offseason last year was all about depth and never getting to the fifth CF or 14th starting pitcher on your depth chart. Gallo was a big part of that mindset and has proven to be useful: he's played a bunch of positions at least adequately, he is on the field when asked, and he was a large part of the early success of the offense. They did not have a proven 1B or LF, they had serious concerns about CF, in RF Kepler was several years removed from his one decent hitting season and there was no clear heir to the position, and they had almost no one signed who had ever hit 25 HR in their career. Further, the kids were not all that young and had still not seized the opportunities offered by the 2022 injury storm. Big strong Miranda was outslugged by Nick Gordon, and it wasn't because Gordon was awesome.

Gallo has always been healthy, had put together several excellent seasons (both defensive and offense) in the recent past and was a TTO SABR darling.  That may offend some folks' aesthetic sensibilities, but it's how baseball teams are built these days and should surprise no one.  He made $11m because that's what all-star, gold glove, 30+ HR guys make. It was all about preventing another 2023 collapse and that hasn't happened. 

[insagt1]

I really do struggle though with 'several excellent seasons'. One, possibly two? Very low BA; high strikeout ratio, some power, but not extraordinary, OK defense. He just isn't the guy you build your offense around. And yeah, the guy just cannot touch a change-up. Its painful watching him flail away. Other than that, I guess he's fine.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

  He made $11m because that's what all-star, gold glove, 30+ HR guys make. 

All Star, gold glove, 30+ HR free agents make 3 times that.

Gallo is none of those things. He's had 30 HRs once since 2018.

"SABR darling" might be accurate, and yeah, watching him hit is offensive, to me at least. 

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, Cris E said:

I have already written about how the offseason last year was all about depth and never getting to the fifth CF or 14th starting pitcher on your depth chart. Gallo was a big part of that mindset and has proven to be useful: he's played a bunch of positions at least adequately, he is on the field when asked, and he was a large part of the early success of the offense. They did not have a proven 1B or LF, they had serious concerns about CF, in RF Kepler was several years removed from his one decent hitting season and there was no clear heir to the position, and they had almost no one signed who had ever hit 25 HR in their career. Further, the kids were not all that young and had still not seized the opportunities offered by the 2022 injury storm. Big strong Miranda was outslugged by Nick Gordon, and it wasn't because Gordon was awesome.

Gallo has always been healthy, had put together several excellent seasons (both defensive and offense) in the recent past and was a TTO SABR darling.  That may offend some folks' aesthetic sensibilities, but it's how baseball teams are built these days and should surprise no one.  He made $11m because that's what all-star, gold glove, 30+ HR guys make. It was all about preventing another 2023 collapse and that hasn't happened. 

Very well reasoned post. 

The Yankees gave up a significant trade package to acquire him from the Rangers. Duran and Smith are important players for the 1st place Rangers today. Players like Gallo clearly have value. The Twins paid 10 million so someone else had to be in that ball park. 

However... When it comes to the Yankees and Gallo... The Yankees got out. Pushed him right out of a moving vehicle. A contending team subtracted him at the trade deadline in order to rebuild the OF. Picking up Benitendi and Bader at the deadline. Giving up a decent starting pitcher just to improve the Gallo OF. 

I don't see a different Gallo from the one the Yankees cleared off the roster for replacements and clearing him off the roster for replacements is what the Twins should do.

Gallo being Gallo works better when he isn't surrounded by guys who are also low batting average and high strikeouts. As it stands... he just the leader of the low batting average high strikeout crowd. 

 

 

[Cris E]

If you only focus on the offense today you miss the point of his signing.  They had several gaping holes and few certain options to fill them and Gallo was a good move at the time as a solid floor on defense and maybe a lotto ticket on offense. Viewed primarily as a block against ever seeing Cave and Contreras ever play together (and maybe hitting some dingers) he has been fine.

The later signing of Taylor neatly covered the unexpected demise of Buxton as a CF, and Solano and Kirilloff have filled the gap at 1B, but there are still grave concerns at the corner outfield spots. Miranda, Gordon and Larnach are all hurt or demoted, Kepler has 2 more singles than Gallo and is playing worse in most other respects, so Willi Castro's May was about the best anyone has done to claim a spot. That means that we still have openings without players, so Gallo should remain on the roster until those spots are filled. Look at any column other than batting average and he's above average on this roster.  His glove plays out there if everything else fails, he's at or near the team lead in BB and HR, and he might return to his April performance levels.

On the other hand he doesn't need to play every day. He's been slumping as bad as anyone of late and if others need to sit down to work on things then he does too. Wallner and Andrew Stevenson should get a look from St Paul, and if they suck then let Chris Williams take a shot at 1B and let Kirilloff try LF. And at this point I wouldn't feel bad about getting a new hitting coach because just about no one is doing better than expected so I'm not clear on who he's helping.  Maybe he's connected with a bunch of guys and I can't see it from here, but the number show that the Twins are a 96 OPS+ team and no one is having a great year.