Austin Martin’s Not-So-Clear Path to the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Austin Martin entered spring training with a new outlook on his professional career. Unfortunately, an elbow injury has delayed the start of his 2023 campaign. What are the chances he avoids surgery, and how can he help the 2023 Twins?

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Entering last season, Austin Martin had to be feeling good about the start of his professional career. He’d been a collegiate star on a powerhouse Vanderbilt squad that made a run to the College World Series before the Blue Jays took him with the fifth overall pick. The Twins acquired Martin along with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios, and he was a consensus top-100 prospect. Double-A was his likely destination, with an outside chance at making his big-league debut during the 2022 campaign. 

Unfortunately, prospect development doesn’t follow a linear path, and Martin struggled through much of the 2022 season. In his first 77 games, he hit .236/.365/.306 (.671) with 11 doubles, three triples, and one home run. His OPS dropped over 120 points, and he was hitting for little to no power. There were some positive signs in his sub-par performance, with a 49-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio while going 32-for-37 in stolen base attempts. Players must make adjustments throughout the season, and Martin decided to return to his roots near the end of the 2022 campaign. 

The Twins tried to adjust Martin’s swing to help him produce more power, but it was clear something wasn’t working during the 2022 season. Eventually, he decided to revert to the swing mechanics that made him one of the best collegiate baseball players in the country. He redeemed himself in September by hitting .268/.405/.423 (.827) with five doubles and two home runs. Minnesota wanted him to get more reps to continue working with his revamped swing, so the club sent him to the AFL. He was one of the AFL’s best hitters with a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line, including six doubles and a home run in 21 games. It was an encouraging conclusion to the season, putting Martin back on the prospect map. 

Martin entered spring training in 2023 with a chance to prove himself to the big-league coaching staff. Injuries to MLB players meant he was getting a long look at multiple defensive positions and performed well in early action. It was a significant opportunity, but his elbow started bothering him, and the team shut him down. He was diagnosed with a UCL sprain, an injury that often leads to Tommy John surgery. 

The Twins and Martin decided to have him attempt to rest and rehab his elbow to see if he could avoid surgery. He didn’t see any game action until last week, and the team will be careful while he continues ramping up his workload. In his first six games, he went 1-for-6 with a home run and a stolen base. He left his sixth rehab game after colliding with another player in the outfield and this will delay his rehab even further. Surgery is still possible and might be the most likely outcome. Unlike pitchers, position players can take less time to recover from Tommy John surgery. In more recent years, the Twins have seen players like Alex Kirilloff and Miguel Sano have TJ surgery. Martin can attempt rehab and still have time to recover for the beginning of next season if he has surgery later this summer. 

If Martin can avoid surgery, it seems likely for him to be done playing shortstop. There were questions about his defensive future throughout his professional career, and this latest injury might be the nail in the coffin. He can still provide value at other defensive spots, including second base or outfield. Throughout his career, he has been known for his athleticism, and evaluators viewed him as the best college bat in his draft class. Martin can serve in a super-utility role with the Twins, where he plays defensively at multiple positions. 

Many of Minnesota’s top prospects have suffered some setbacks on their way to becoming regulars at the big-league level. Royce Lewis is returning from his second ACL tear, Jhoan Duran had elbow problems, and Alex Kirilloff underwent TJ surgery, to name a few. It might be unlikely for Martin to avoid surgery, but players have used the rest and rehab process without going under the knife. 

What are the chances that Martin can avoid surgery? Can he help the Twins in 2023? What is his long-term defensive home? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Mike Sixel]

LF or 2B or CF were always the option for him. No idea why he kept playing SS.

As for surgery, as with any human, the goal is to avoid it if possible. We'll see.

I feel bad for the young man. He's not had any good luck (health wise) in 2 years.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Positions Austin Martin will almost assuredly not play for the Twins;

C, SS, DH (self-explanatory, Correa, Buxton)

Positions Austin Martin will probably not play for the Twins;

1B, 2B, 3B, RF, CF (Kiriloff, Julien, Lee, Wallner, Lewis--I think that's the best place for him long-term)

That leaves either LF, where he will be average at best (MLB LF's this year have a .733 OPS compared to Martin's career MiLB OPS of .742), or he will be a super utility player.  There is of course value in having a high-end super utility player making $4M or so across 4 seasons, but that's hardly what the Twins were hoping for when they agreed to get Martin back as the centerpiece in the Berrios trade.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Positions Austin Martin will almost assuredly not play for the Twins;

C, SS, DH (self-explanatory, Correa, Buxton)

Positions Austin Martin will probably not play for the Twins;

1B, 2B, 3B, RF, CF (Kiriloff, Julien, Lee, Wallner, Lewis--I think that's the best place for him long-term)

That leaves either LF, where he will be average at best (MLB LF's this year have a .733 OPS compared to Martin's career MiLB OPS of .742), or he will be a super utility player.  There is of course value in having a high-end super utility player making $4M or so across 4 seasons, but that's hardly what the Twins were hoping for when they agreed to get Martin back as the centerpiece in the Berrios trade.

Martin is probably a better defensive 2B than Julien. I'm hopeful Austin Martin becomes more than just a RH Nick Gordon (2B/LF/CF).

[Cris E]

He's a far better hitter than Gordon. The question is if he can gather the pieces together and get to the majors before even more youngsters start coming up to crowd him out entirely (eg Emmanuel Rodriguez.)

[dxpavelka]

Actually his path to the Twins is very clear.  Get / stay healthy and don't suck.

[shabbos1]

"The Twins tried to adjust Martin’s swing to help him produce more power, but it was clear something wasn’t working during the 2022 season. Eventually, he decided to revert to the swing mechanics that made him one of the best collegiate baseball players in the country."

I can't say for sure since I'm no closer to the team than anyone else here, but it seems like the Twins place too much focus on trying to develop players to hit for power regardless of whether or not they're even physically built for it.  Is Martin's successful stint in the AFL after reverting back to his old swing indicative of that?  Who knows ... but it's interesting.  A team hell-bent on breaking the single season strikeout record might be another sign of an overemphasis on the long ball also.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Martin is probably a better defensive 2B than Julien.

Far better. He plays SS because that's where you get the most fielding attempts. Martin can play play 2B, LF and CF. When Martin is healthy, if he starts playing CF a lot, that will tell us a lot about Buxton. Buxton staying at DH can really help Martin's career.

[Guest]

Martin's potential remains as long as the Twins leave his swing alone.

[gman]

I think long term Martin plays center field for the Twins. He has the speed and athleticism to play the position. He may not be as good as Buxton at his best, but if he can stay healthy he could easily see more time at the position. He's a good on base hitter with plenty of stolen base potential. See Martin and Julian as the top 2 hitters followed by Lewis, then Kirilloff batting forth could produce a lot of runs. Something desperately short of this year.

[DocBauer]

He's not going to help the Twins in 2023. Too long of a road to MLB coming off injury and getting roughly half a season in which to do so. But he can prepare for 2024.

The reason he stuck at SS for as long as he did, from what I heard many month ago, was simply to get more time and more chances playing in the dirt, and just work on the basics of fielding and throwing. From there, he could take that experience and slide easily to 2B/3B, positions he's more familiar with and played in college.

The Twins weren't wrong in trying to increase his power. You have to realize, working to increase power isn't about turning everyone in to a 20+ HR slugger. More power also means doubles and triples if you have speed. Low power from a hitter means pitchers can challenge more, with less fear, and even good contact and good BB rates doesn't equal production if a quality ML pitcher can just overpower you. There are very few Arraez types who have limited power and can succeed. And even he has developed a little more pop over time. You end up with Ben Revere with little or zero pop in the bat. Virtually every single team will look to make adjustments for more power to make a batter more dangerous. Doesn't mean you are trying to develop a slugger. Such is the case with Martin. 

If his arm holds up, or recovers well after any potential surgery, I think it's very possible he still plays 2B as well as 3B on a utility basis. Depth is a good thing. But he never has to, or should, play SS again. And he doesn't have to with Correa, Lewis, and Lee sometime in 2024. Heck, Farmer will likely still be with the Twins next year as well.

Someone commented months ago from the Twins that they felt Martin to slide to the OF "tomorrow" and be just fine, and that he was a natural out there. Hence part if the reason they kept him in the INF for as long as they did.

And that's where he's going to end up. I DO think he could be a RH Gordon, and that's not a bad thing. It just means he could cover 2B/3B as well as the OF, not that he'd necessarily be a "reserve", just versatile.

If and when he reaches MLB, he's going to be a LF and/or CF. Not sure about RF as I believe that's going to be Larnach or Wallner, unless Lewis moves out there. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Royce still ends up in CF either. 

Is Martin going to be a starter somewhere? Potentially yes. He has the bat and OB skills and speed and athleticism to be a fine OF with top of the order potential, even with mostly doubles kind of power. (I think he has enough natural strength to settle in as a "teens" HR hitter naturally). But it's up to him to get healthy, and prove he can hit and get OB and run at the ML level. It's not like there isn't competition. 

He could be the Twins starting CF or LF fairly soon if his close to 2022 and AFL performance is legit. He'll play both, but other players might determine where he slots in best. He and Julien could make a hell of a 1-2 to get the offense going! 

He could also be a daily player who moves around. He might also end up a really good and versatile veserve.

Said it before and will again, NOBODY with the Twins is ruling Buxton out of CF in the future. Even as a part timer out there. But the simple truth is his body might never allow him to be a fixture out there again and you're hoping he pulls a "Molitor" and finds ways to stay prepared and engaged to being a successful DH. That means CF might be open. 

I could see, potentially, Taylor brought back for 2024. I could also see someone else brought in via FA or trade for a short term solution. It's really unfortunate that BOTH Celestino and Martin had lingering injuries this year as BOTH might be solid options to be primary CF in 2024. Let's not forget that Celestino is still quite young and has some good tools. In the short time he's been at AAA...after his too soon, emergency promotion...he's raked there.

The best thing that could happen for both of them is to be healthy and ready for AAA ASAP, and get ready for 2024. But I do like Martin better as a possible long term solution there. He just needs to be healthy. If he needs surgery, it doesn't eliminate him from the future, but it continues to delay and possible future. 

[jimbo92107]

If avoiding surgery impedes his positional flexibility, then he should have opted for TJ earlier. His value as a pro will not go up as is. A fringy sub is not where Martin belongs. 

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

If avoiding surgery impedes his positional flexibility, then he should have opted for TJ earlier. His value as a pro will not go up as is. A fringy sub is not where Martin belongs. 

The goal of everyone is to avoid cutting into the human body if possible....

[Karbo]

11 hours ago, shabbos1 said:

"The Twins tried to adjust Martin’s swing to help him produce more power, but it was clear something wasn’t working during the 2022 season. Eventually, he decided to revert to the swing mechanics that made him one of the best collegiate baseball players in the country."

I can't say for sure since I'm no closer to the team than anyone else here, but it seems like the Twins place too much focus on trying to develop players to hit for power regardless of whether or not they're even physically built for it.  Is Martin's successful stint in the AFL after reverting back to his old swing indicative of that?  Who knows ... but it's interesting.  A team hell-bent on breaking the single season strikeout record might be another sign of an overemphasis on the long ball also.

This management team is so determined to hit HR's they seem to have forgotten that singles and doubles lead to runs also. A kid that can hit like him should be left alone unless he needs help.

[Fezig]

My takeaway.

The Twins hitting coaches altered his swing and his numbers dropped. He went back to the mechanics that got him through college and then on to becoming a high draft choice and his numbers improved. I'm thinking the Twins way of hitting from top to bottom might need to be re-evaluated. 

[wsnydes]

If Martin can stay healthy and produce, I have no doubt that the team will find a place for him.  There are openings there to be had, Martin simply needs to stay healthy and take advantage of that and take one of them.

[Doctor Wu]

I have high hopes for Martin and wish that he is healthy and ready to play every day, preferably in the outfield. My concern is that this prolonged "rest" was just delaying another inevitable surgery. But I sure hope that's not the case. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I really liked Martin in the trade and thought he had some real potential, he turns 25 right around the start of next year, and if by that time he isn't in the majors, he is just another player that will hope to make majors and last a few years as a utility type guy (Gordon for example), maybe and hopefully I am wrong, but guys that age usually aren't given a job with a long leash and told go and figure out, why because there usually is a higher priced vet or a higher rated prospect. (I see Wallner as the example of that) Guys that age need an opening (injury or trade that opens up a spot) and then play so well they take that spot and don't give it up. So good luck Austin as a fan I want him to be awesome and super successful, as a realist I understand that isn't likely.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Martin is probably a better defensive 2B than Julien. I'm hopeful Austin Martin becomes more than just a RH Nick Gordon (2B/LF/CF).

We could see Martin end up with a similar positional role to Gordon (2B/LF/CF/emergency SS) and a similar offensive role to Donovan Solano (high contact, OBP, top of lineup, modest power.) That's not a top-end outcome for a top draft pick and prospect, but he'd be useful if that's the role he finds in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

Back to the surgery, it makes sense to wait. He can play, hopefully, thru August, have the surgery, and be ready for April. It makes sense to use the season to work on hitting (and fielding at 2B?) and use the off season for recovery. IMO.