Was extending Buxton a mistake?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

"We had a four-hour conversation. I said, 'I think we're a better team if you're DH-ing and taking 500 at-bats and just focusing on hitting 40 or 50 homers during the season and let Michael Taylor guard the outfield,'" Correa recalled. "He took it very well."

It should be obvious that this was a conversation between friends/colleagues.  From Correa's point of view, he too sees Buxton's potential and wants him in the lineup.  He was likely lobbying for that to happen and to try to get Buxton's head in the right place for that to happen.  If he were hitting .280 with 25 HR's right now, we would be praising the decision, but he's not so we're looking for a scapegoat.  It's got to be somebody's fault, right?

[Cap'n Piranha]

I've yet to see this proposed, and I'm not sure why--is there any reason Buxton can't play right field, or even left field if the opposing team loads up on lefty hitters?  Supposedly Kepler didn't like playing Center because it was too much stress on his body, so why not solve half the problem by having Buxton play in the field?  You can have him out there for Gray's starts (lowest non-IF FB rate of starters at 31%) at minimum, DH 4-5 times, and take a day off.  You at least get to let someone else DH twice a week or so, and if he's doing ok, you can start putting him out there for Varland's starts too (37.5% non-IF FB rate).

[USAFChief]

Going to agree with Riverbrian...the contract needed to happen, should have happened. But right now, it's a failure. Lotta time left though.

[Rosterman]

ut the contract, yes. Who do the Twins have for DH now or in the future, except as a spot to rotate guys needing a rest.

If he comes back and plays centerfield for a season or two, a plus.

If he can play the outfield half-the-time the next five years, still a plus.

[Doctor Wu]

Going back to the original question posed in this post, is Buxton worth the money he received in the extension? Well, that depends ... on his health for one thing. If we get a healthy Buxton who can play centerfield most of the times, by all means it's a good deal. But as things stand now, we don't seem to have much clarity about his health, nor any idea when he can/will take the field again. If his performance, as he's shown as a DH this year, continues at this lackluster rate then I think the contract benefits Buxton more than the Twins. At this rate he is never going to come close to equalling what Nelson Crux did as a DH ... in his late 30s. All that said, I still think it was a good gamble for the Twins to take a chance on giving the extension to Buxton. At this point I just hope we get a few good years of productivity. 

[August J Gloop]

The question really remains though, that was Bux's offense impacted by the fact that his knees are still problematic? I think that is very likely the case. Bux really can be one of the greatest hitters of all time with his amazing bat speed and ability to fly to second at a moment's notice. Is this rib contusion going to serve as a way to get him off his knees for a while and see what happens? 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

20 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It should be obvious that this was a conversation between friends/colleagues.  From Correa's point of view, he too sees Buxton's potential and wants him in the lineup.  He was likely lobbying for that to happen and to try to get Buxton's head in the right place for that to happen.  If he were hitting .280 with 25 HR's right now, we would be praising the decision, but he's not so we're looking for a scapegoat.  It's got to be somebody's fault, right?

No one would be complaining if he were hitting .280 and 25 HR's.  Problem is he has only hit more than .280 once and hit more than 25 HR's once.  He hit .300 in 2021 and we all thought a star was born.  He hit 28 HR's last year...but hit .224.  Why was/is there so many high expectations for him as a hitter?

[insagt1]

What is most frustrating is that as a DH, Buck isn't performing adequately. He is prone (a lot) to long batting slumps where he will go over 20 AB's without a hit. His k rate hasn't improved either, so he isn't making productive outs with runners on. I too would be satisfied if he could improve his offense, then let him DH until or if his body can ever heal to point where he can play the field. Right now sad to say, his real value to the team in 2023 isn't very much, unless you are happy with a DH hitting around .220 or worse, with a k every 2 1/2 AB's or worse.

He may be the most frustrating problem facing the team right now. With Pagan, Kepler or Gallo, they all can be removed if needed. Not so with Buxton. I really hope the young man gets it fixed because he is such a gamer.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

No one would be complaining if he were hitting .280 and 25 HR's.  Problem is he has only hit more than .280 once and hit more than 25 HR's once.  He hit .300 in 2021 and we all thought a star was born.  He hit 28 HR's last year...but hit .224.  Why was/is there so many high expectations for him as a hitter?

I think the answer is the same as it was for Joe Mauer, only in smaller sample sizes.  When Joe Mauer was in his first couple of years, it was obvious that he was a big deal, and then came the magical year when he was "Mauer with Power", after which he signed the big contract.  Well, he was only Mauer with Power once, although he continued to be a very fine player for a long time.  The problem, however, is that everyone expected that signing him to that contract was a way of locking in the player at his absolute peak.  What we were really doing in that contract was paying for the production that he had already given, with some still to come, but as fans, we fell into the trap of Mauer always being amazingly good, instead of just good.

The same thing is now happening for all of us, only in a more extreme way, with Byron Buxton. It is more extreme because we imagine this complete five tool player who has amazing seasons, when he is healthy.  Truth is he's only been healthy part of the time, but we want him healthy all of the time.  We also want him to hit at his absolutely (SSS) peak while playing platinum glove defense.  We want to see him be the franchise cornerstone for the next six years, but so far it's not happening and that makes us all frustrated.  Me too.  I don't know if he gets better or not, but I'm hoping so. 

[Doctor Gast]

It was definitely worth signing Buxton. The problem is how he's being used. To begin season IMO it was OK to play Buxton DH during the cold weather to help protect him but now having him at fulltime DH is a waste.

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It was definitely worth signing Buxton. The problem is how he's being used. To begin season IMO it was OK to play Buxton DH during the cold weather to help protect him but now having him at fulltime DH is a waste.

He is full time DH because health wise he cant play in the field.  I dont think the Twins are purposefully not sticking him in CF.

[Matthew Lenz]

As of right now, no. If he is solely a DH for the entirety of the contract, then maybe. But at the time he was signed it was a no brainer and ultimately that’s all that matters. Too easy to play Monday Morning QB and criticize something when it doesn’t work out as intended. Process > results and this was a great move by the Twins no matter what happens from here, even if it doesn’t work as intended.

[Whitey333]

Who isn't frustrated or downright sick of the status of Buxton?  He's been a part time player fir 8 seasons now due to injuries.  Unfortunately  he's one of those fragile players that's hurt all the time.  I think he squeezed out more than a fair deal for himself in that deal.  Not bad for a part time player that you can't count on.  

[Little Piranhas]

BB has averaged @ 70 games a season over seven full seasons.  

Most recently he has been on the DL, this time for over two weeks, with “rib contusions”.  Every slide, every time he runs out a ground ball, every time he fouls all off a body part, hell every time he gives a high five we hold our collective breath that he might’ve gotten hurt.  

If we Twins fans are going to be honest with ourselves we need to expect 70 games from him (and probably trending down) as a .250 hitting DH with power.  Is that worth 15M/year?  Probably not. 

I know no one wants to say it, at least out load, but he seems soft.

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, Little Piranhas said:

BB has averaged @ 70 games a season over seven full seasons.  

Most recently he has been on the DL, this time for over two weeks, with “rib contusions”.  Every slide, every time he runs out a ground ball, every time he fouls all off a body part, hell every time he gives a high five we hold our collective breath that he might’ve gotten hurt.  

If we Twins fans are going to be honest with ourselves we need to expect 70 games from him (and probably trending down) as a .250 hitting DH with power.  Is that worth 15M/year?  Probably not. 

I know no one wants to say it, at least out load, but he seems soft.

Take a MLB fastball in the ribs and let us know how you are.

[Little Piranhas]

Dude, I’ve broken and bruised my ribs several times.  Hurts like hell but it didn’t stop me from working, etc.  BTW - I’m 60-years-old.

[ashbury]

35 minutes ago, Little Piranhas said:

BTW - I’m 60-years-old.

Welcome to the site, sonny.

[Larry Janisewski]

On 6/12/2023 at 4:47 PM, August J Gloop said:

Bux at DH for 15MM is a good deal. Assuming he can be healthy and hit like he did. If he's still broke down, playing only 80 games a year, probably not. But The risk of letting him walk and then star for the Yankees was too great. 

Being strictly a DH, only batting in the .220 range, and striking out near Sano numbers? That's not the Buxton I watched play at Chattanooga and along his journey in the minors. 

[twins_89]

Much like Joe Mauer's contract, the success of the Buxton deal is going to depend heavily on how many games he ends up playing a premium defensive position. If Buxton can play even 70-80 games a year in CF over the next 3-4 years, the contract will look pretty good. If he ends up as a full time DH, the majority of the contract it will likely be rated as a bad deal. I suspect we'll have a much better idea of how good the contract is a year from now.

[twins_89]

19 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

He is full time DH because health wise he cant play in the field.  I dont think the Twins are purposefully not sticking him in CF.

If that is the case, then I think the Twins need to seriously consider putting Buxton on the IL and attempt to get him healthy. Right now, I'd take Julien, Wallner, and maybe even Miranda (has been heating up at AAA) at DH over Buxton.

[USAFChief]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:28 PM, Craig Arko said:

Take a MLB fastball in the ribs and let us know how you are.

Some MLB player or players take MLB fastballs to the ribs pretty much every day.

Most grimace and then get up and trot to first. Most don't go on the IL with a "contusion."

Thats a bruise, BTW.

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Most don't go on the IL with a "contusion."

Thats a bruise, BTW.

They are required to follow the contusion protocol.

[KirbyDome89]

On 6/12/2023 at 10:16 PM, cHawk said:

If we assume Buxton will play ~100 games this season at DH (which is probably an underestimate, of course barring an injury) he is on pace to finish with 1.8 WAR. By the standard dollars-to-WAR conversion ratio of $8M to 1 WAR, Buxton would be worth approximately $14.4M.

So far this looks like a good investment, as ridiculous as that might sound.

Dollars to WAR is lacking a ton of context here. Also, is anybody really lamenting the money? It was praised (rightfully so) as a financially team friendly deal from the jump. The issue, as has been pointed out, is all the shuffling that goes on around locking Buxton's .722 OPS into the DH spot when he's healthy. 

FWIW 1.8 WAR would be his lowest total since that abysmal 2018 season where he totaled fewer than 100 PAs. The only other "full," season comparable to the pace you suggested is 2016 where he was essentially a rookie. It was an investment worth making, but the early results haven't looked good.  

[KirbyDome89]

On 6/13/2023 at 9:54 AM, IA Bean Counter said:

Here is what I think is happening and what I expect to happen moving forward.  I think towards the end of July to August they are going to begin to work Buxton back into the field.  The last couple of seasons we went into the post season we didn't have Buxton because he broke down during the year.  If you can manage him and only have him play 1-2 months or 2 1/2 months he should still be relatively fresh,  not banged up and be back roaming Centerfield.  Honestly I feel like as an organization and team they have been slow playing the season and they expect to turn it on in the back half with an easier schedule.  

In March it was the cold weather to begin the season. Then it was wait and see around mid May. It's almost July and this team is literally forfeiting the DH during games to keep Buxton away from the OF, but we're supposed to believe that in 4 weeks things dramatically change? Room to keep shifting these goalposts has to be at a premium now. 

They've been slow playing the season? For real? You think they're capable of turning on the burners but they're just choosing to be a sub .500 team in late June? Detroit at home was supposed to kick start that easy schedule. Did they just play those games a bit too slow? I honestly hope this was a joke that I didn't catch.

[rwilfong86]

Not letting Buxton play the outfield is the mistake. I think that has had a significant impact on his offense this year. 

[Irishman]

As of right now, it is a big mistake to extend Buxton.   
 

Why don’t Twins let Buck alternate playing CF every 2 games and DH every 2 games?   See how he does!   

[insagt1]

if what the organization feeds us is mostly true, he can't play in the field. He is too banged up. So DH is the only option and they were hoping they would get good value for that move. Instead we are seeing Buck at his worst. He started out OK but in the last month we have watched him become totally impotent at the plate. His 'k' rate is shockingly horrible now. His plate approach appears to be showing us a guy who has lost his confidence. Since coming off the IL, he has yet to get a hit and has only made contact a few times (being generous)

Carole King once sang: sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes you choose between the two (Sweet Seasons) When Buck isn't hurt, he's our 5 tool star. Problem is he is almost always hurt and we keep waiting for that not to happen.

is he salvageable? Only time will tell. Meanwhile the entire team is failing. 1st place under .500 is unsustainable. We all know that.

(an aside to all this, if I could undo the Arraez trade, I'd do it yesterday)

[Trov]

Remember his contract is only 100 mil if he plays limited time, but has bonuses built in if he plays more.  He can earh 2.5 mil more each year he gets enough plate appearances, no matter it CF or DH. He gets bonuses for where he ranks in MVP voting, less likely to get much of that if he is just DH.  

If he can hit like he has shown in past for stretches, he still has value as DH, but if he continues to struggle he will be a very overpaid DH. 

[HokieRif]

If Buck is healthy enough to swing a bat one would think he’s healthy enough to play the field. I would stick him out there just to take his mind off the hitting game and let him get back into a groove. If he gets injured out there, from a stats perspective, does that even hurt us?  He hasn’t played the field all year, and he’s one of the worst performing at the plate. It’s worth the risk to help turn this around. 

[Shobae]

On 6/15/2023 at 4:31 PM, Matthew Lenz said:

As of right now, no. If he is solely a DH for the entirety of the contract, then maybe. But at the time he was signed it was a no brainer and ultimately that’s all that matters. Too easy to play Monday Morning QB and criticize something when it doesn’t work out as intended. Process > results and this was a great move by the Twins no matter what happens from here, even if it doesn’t work as intended.

I 100% agree with this as the answer to the question. However, I will say I was never a fan of the Buxton DH plans because he is so good in the field that every defensive metric agrees he is one of the very best in CF. As someone who looks a decent amount of players defensive numbers, it is extremely rare to see these metrics have a consensus on the overall ability of a player. It's even more rare with all agreeing the he is one of the very best. For that reason I thought even if he only plays 70 games in CF he's probably more valuable than 100 games of a 60/40 split DH/CF split.

But I was putting my faith in the twins this season with starting him off at DH with the idea they would ease him into CF throughout the season, with the goal of him being the stater there for the playoffs. Now it's June 20th and Buxton hasn't played an inning in center field. It's questionable if he will even play in the field this season and if he does what does their timeline look like for him? Because to my knowledge there are no plans to start easing him back into the field. So the question becomes are the twins even trying to do this? Because right now you're getting the worst case scenario of having him DH, he is providing no value with the bat and therefore no value as a player.

I think it's fine that the twins are trying to find the solution that works best for Buxton and I can accept they wanted to see if he can be a full time DH. However, I think at some point you have to make a decision about the effectiveness of the strategy because they do not have the luxury to be missing his contributions right now. So far it looks like the 2022 model was the most effective, when he had a 57/35 game split at CF and DH and a 4 bwar season (a steal for 9.1 mil). That comes out to a 62/38 percentile split so I think a 60/40 model for CF/DH games could be the answer for Buxton. I agree that in April you can DH him a lot more but I think as the season progresses that's when he should be regularly be playing the field.