Byron Buxton is Worth It

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

IF this is the opening day line-up, I guess I'm OK with it. I don't like Buxton as the DH, and neither does he, but I would assume by making this announcement 2 weeks before opening day he can be better prepared to handle not playing defense.

 C - Vazquez

1B - Gallo

2B - Gordon

3B - Miranda

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach

CF - Taylor

RF - Kepler

DH - Buxton

Bench - Jeffers, Farmer, Solano and Castro

If Julien starts hot at AAA I would expect to see him with the big club to take over the DH role, and Castro optioned (FanGraphs shows that he has an option left). The club may choose to activate Polanco though, forcing Julien to wait for the next injury. Polanco at DH is an option I can live with, but that can  be discussed in a different thread...

This seems reasonable until Gordon is freed up to play CF v. RH pitching…….either with Polanco back or with Julien up to play 2B. Other scenario is Kiriloff is ready & Gallo mans CF. Don’t see Taylor playing v. RH pitching if there’s another option. Farmer may be lesser evil v. RH pitching than Taylor and they shift Miranda to 1B - Farmer to 3B - Gallo in CF.

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, MGX said:

Good article.

As was pointed out Buxton's career has changed quite a bit over time so quoting career numbers as if they tell you a lot about the player Buxton is today is misleading. If you look at his last three seasons you get a much better picture of what type of player he is today. 

2020 - .254 .267 .577 - .884 OPS - 130 AB's - 13 HR's

2021 - .306 .358 .647 - 1.005 OPS - 235 AB's - 19 HR's

2022 - .224 .306 ..526 - .832 OPS - 340 AB's 28 HR's

3 seasons - 705 AB's - 60 HR's - The Twins are trying to continue the trend of increasing his AB's like he did from 2021 to 2022. If he gets an additional 100 AB's in 2023 he may hit 35+ HR's while OPSing over .800.

He can still step into CF & play GG defense & has speed on the bases even if he doesn't use it to steal bases (with the rule changes maybe we get more aggressive stealing bases in '23).

The Twins need his offensive production in the lineup as much as possible. As valuable as he is defensively, on this current roster his offensive production is far more important to this teams success that his defense. This year for better or worse our roster is constructed differently. We have a number of good, great & even Gold glove OF's on the roster. I've voiced concerns with the offensive production of the starting nine as it stands multiple times (making Buxton's production even more important).

Buxton is the primary DH to start the year. It doesn't mean he won't play in CF at any point. The team is built so we have flexibility there so we can use him at DH periodically to limit how often he plays CF while still having his offensive production in the lineup on a regular basis.  

Agree! Again from me I see 60 games in CF & 70 games at DH & 30 games rest, where he pinch hits 10-12 times. 3.5AB’s per game plus 10 pinch hits = 465 AB’s minimum……….he’s in 140 games…….projects to 38HR & 30 doubles and hopefully, availability in October.

Taylor in CF v. LH pitching for 40 games. This gives us supreme CF play for 100 games minimum.

Gordon/Gallo in CF v. RH pitching 60 games - very adequate!

Nothing directed at you MGX……..  He’s stolen 31 bases in the last 3.5 seasons (Covid 2020), that’s 9 stolen bases per year…..do we really care if he doubles his steals at the risk of screwing up a knee, because they made the bags 3” bigger? Rod Carew quit stealing bases to save his legs - seemed OK when he did it!

We need adequate OF defense we don’t need Byron Buxton in CF to get outs……he’s played CF an average of 45% of the time in 7 of 8 seasons.

How much money does Giancarlo Stanton make?

What is Giancarlo Stanton’s strike out %?

What type of power and dynamic bat does a healthy Giancarlo Stanton bring to the Yankees?

How many Yankee fans would cringe if G. Stanton tried to steal a base or even play in the outfield? He’s built like an adonis. He gets hurt easily as well - a multitude of ailments.

Just because Buxton is talented  - fast - extremely athletic and is very entertaining to watch play CF & run bases, it doesn’t mean we should ignore the fact that he is easily injured. We need his bat and the “let’s run him out there and see what happens” approach is like following the definition of insanity! 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it is reasonable to think that Buxton, based on his numbers from the past three years, is going to be a solid DH to begin the year — probably stronger than anyone else we were going to play there.  In the field, Taylor will play an excellent center field, even if he is not a great hitter.  However, when we think of Taylor, he’s not replacing Buxton’s bat in the lineup.  He’s replacing the bat of the DH who would bat if Buxton weren’t there.  Some days that might be a strong hitter, like Miranda, but on plenty of others, that hitter won’t be that much better than Taylor, who is a very long distance from the black hole that Miguel Sano or someone like him would be.  

I also think Buxton is the new “we signed him to a big contract and now he needs to be Superman” argument that many made about Joe Mauer when he was playing.  First of all, Buxton’s contract is for about $15M per year, which he is likely to well-earn, even in a year he isn’t playing 140 games.  Second, $15M doesn’t buy nearly as much as it used to.  Third, if this results in him playing even 120 games this year, I’m not at all worried about the value the Twins will get from him.  Let’s let something go wrong before we search for reasons for problems that haven’t occurred yet.  

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Your article, like Byron Buxton himself, is a complete overstatement.  He should hire you as his public relations manager.  All these accolades for a player whose only played one full season going on 8 years.  How anyone can say how great he is based on such little information and stats is astounding.  Buxton has been an enigma of sorts.  People like you tell us how great he is yet we don't see enough of him to make such comments.  His career stats aren't all that impressive.  I really hoped he plays some full seasons so we can see one way or another if he is as good as people say.  To me I don't see it except maybe a few weeks out of the year.  If he plays a full year and is great as you say he should have an MVP year.  I really hope so because then the Twins would be a world series contender.  So far the career of Buxton has been a huge disappointment.

I agree - he’s overhyped. Overhyped because people lean into his athleticism as being his primary value - stealing bases - gold glove defense - etc.

He’s got raw power. He strikes out a bunch - most power guys in today’s game also strike out too much.

The fact that you only see greatness a few weeks out of the year exemplifies why he should DH - so he plays more than his average of 74 games per year (excluding 2017).

130-135 games played with the heavy use of DH & regular rest seems to be a plan. Never tried it before. Gotta do something different other than just cross our fingers.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, CRF said:

Just my 2 cents. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'm in the camp that thinks that we're babying him just a little too much. I don't see why he's not out there in CF a few games during ST. If he can DH/bat, and run the bases, he can play the outfield. He could get a HBP and be out the whole season too. He got hurt last year sliding into 2nd base, not out in CF.  Is he injury prone? Yep. He's sure proven that. I'd be willing to  bet he comes up with something again this year that causes him to miss time. I don't think that's going to change. It can happen to anyone. Buxton should take some turns at DH...AND...play the field.  

How many reps does Kirk Cousins take in the pre-season? He isn’t coming up with reasons not to play - he’s a fragile, elite athlete. It sucks but get used to it - not changing. We need a new approach to keep him available in October. Let’s see where it goes.

[Trov]

I am not part of the brain trust, and I am sure the Twins employ and pay people a lot of money to make educated decisions like making Buck the DH for some set amount of time, but I just do not see the logic.  I mean are they also going to ask him to run at like 50%?  How about they tell him to not run any balls out at all?  Just swing and if it is a HR great, if not jog the 90 feet.  Tell him to never slide and just do not run at a speed that will require him to slide to stop.  Hell, lets not even ask him to take a lead off the base so he can avoid having to move quickly incase they try to pick him off.  Better yet, lets ask him to never swing, because he has actually got hurt in past when he fouled a ball off his foot.  Let him stand in there like the kid in Rookie of the Year.  Cower in the corner of the box with his back turned.  If he does sneeze and a swing comes out, walk to next base and if the ball is in the in the air just walk to dug out.  We should have him go up in full catchers gear when he bats, and put on boxing gloves so his hands do not get hurt if he is hit by a pitch.  He should not be in on deck circle either, and lets get him a golf cart to get to the batter box so he does not twist and ankle walking.  Can anyone think of another way to decrease his value to the team but make sure he will stay healthy?  Oh when not playing lets make sure we hire an assistant that does all his packing, one player once cut his thumb closing a suitcase, and make sure someone carries his bags every where too.  

[Reptevia]

Is there any evidence that cold weather contributed to any of his injuries?  Is he an iguana?  Just based on offensive stats, Buc is ranked between the 50-60th batter in MLB last year, and the confetti still hasn’t hit the floor on these forums. So happy!  Players with similar HR, BA and RBI numbers:  Matt Chapman, Cal Raleigh, Seth Brown, Patrick Wisdom, and Marcell Ozuna. Granted, most of those guys are “right there” in the MVP voting and are sure HOF candidates, but most of them are probably cheaper too. I’ve been saying it since we got him:  Taylor is the starting CF this year. 

[DocBauer]

Am I happy with this? Of course not. I want Buxton in CF playing as many days as possible and Taylor being the great depth and rotation piece he's meant to be.

But I just don't see the angst here. They've only stated Buck is beginning the season in the DH role. Where was it ever said he's moving there? No spring games in CF? It's not like he wasn't running around at the complex and hasn't played the position before. They're just being a little overly cautious about easing him in and saving some game wear on his knee. Additionally, it's going to be a little damp and cold the first few weeks of the season. We've seen this approach before, not just with Buxton, but other players and milb players before him.

I'm just not concerned about anything here until something tells/shows me that I should be.

[tony&rodney]

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, rv78 said:

I find it ironic that the Twins have decided they can't let him play in CF becasue they don't want to lose his offense. Yet they keep and allow Kepler to play mainly for his defense, (because he has become really bad offensively), and they go out and get one of the worst hitters from 2022, Joey Gallo to add to their outfield, which means again they only acquired him for his defense, and they got Taylor who is right-handed, same as Buxton, so a platoon with him doesn't make sense, and again a defense-first type player. But Buxton, who is probably the premier defensive player in all of baseball is not going to be used for defensive purposes, even though he too has become in your own words, "an all or nothing hitter." Based on his past performance I would say the only value that Buxton provides over other outfielders that can hit for decent average and some power is his defense, but the Twins have chosen to throw that value down the toilet in the hopes he doesn't get plunked by a pitch or hurt a knee running the bases. (His last 2 injuries were not from playing defense).

Kepler is still being used because, even though he may not be what we hope for offensively, nobody else has done what's needed to take the spot away from him.  Buxton is not being used defensively, NOW.  That could change.  As could someone else show enough stick to take away Kepler's spot.  Hasn't happened yet.

[Spth]

9 hours ago, Mike h said:

You say Buxton is projected to be the Twins best hitter this year. Sad to say, you may be right. Only because the lineup is so weak.

For all the love Buxton gets from the Twins you'd think he is a sure fire hall of famer. I don't get it. He tries hard. He plays hard. His teammates like him. When he connects the ball goes a long way. But, bottom line, results are just average. He'll never win a batting championship or even come close. Home run champion? No. RBI? No. Silver Slugger? No. Gold Glove? Yes. Can he carry this team to a championship? No. 

On many teams Buxton would bat in the bottom portion of the lineup, which is where he belongs. Nineth, actually. That way, if he does get on base, you've got his speed in front of the best hitters. At any rate, he should not bat 1-4, at least not unless he picks up his bat to ball skills.

If Buxton is truly our best hitter, then I'm looking for a third place finish, or worse. Sorry fans, that's just my opinion. And I hope I'm wrong.

Isn’t there data supporting the possibility that he was an above average hitter last year? I think maybe 37% above average. Heck of a nine hole. 

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

 

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

This is just a question. In what way is this a pivotal year for Buxton? 

[Schmoeman5]

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think you nailed it. Here's his stats for the last four years: 

On a per-162 basis, those are great numbers from a full-time DH.

We recognize he's not going to play 162, however. But rather than considering that he averaged 70 games per year in this time period, a better average is about 83 games, given that it's only 3.37 seasons because of COVID.  

After 92 games last season, start the year with a pattern that shoots for 108 games this year (two of every three games). Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows. 

What I'm not understanding is that you state, "Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows." Generally as the season goes on a players health deteriorates instead of getting healthier. And with Buxtons history. I don't understand how anyone can realistically expect him to play in more than 100 games in any capacity. It would be great to see him play in your 108 game scenario, but I see a lot of posters suggesting 140 games and that's just not realistic

[MGX]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Is there any evidence that cold weather contributed to any of his injuries?  Is he an iguana?  Just based on offensive stats, Buc is ranked between the 50-60th batter in MLB last year, and the confetti still hasn’t hit the floor on these forums. So happy!  Players with similar HR, BA and RBI numbers:  Matt Chapman, Cal Raleigh, Seth Brown, Patrick Wisdom, and Marcell Ozuna. Granted, most of those guys are “right there” in the MVP voting and are sure HOF candidates, but most of them are probably cheaper too. I’ve been saying it since we got him:  Taylor is the starting CF this year. 

Poor comparison - other than BA your looking at counting numbers & not factoring in the difference in AB's. For example - 

Matt Chapman hit 27 HR's in 538 AB's. Buxton hit 28 HR's in 340 AB's. A better comparison might use something like OPS+.

2022 OPS+
Buxton - 135
Chapman - 115
Raleigh - 122
Brown - 116
Wisdom - 102
Ozuna - 89

Buxton was more productive offensively then every player you listed.

 

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

 

This is just a question. In what way is this a pivotal year for Buxton? 

I think if Byron can only play 40-50 games in the outfield again his value will have been greatly diminished. The Twins did well to sign MAT to play centerfield in case of any problems with Buxton, but the team will need a guy out there going forward if Buck looks to be transitioning to just a DH. So, I'm hoping that Buxton can get back on the grass and play much more than he has thus far in his career. There have been other players who have had a host of setbacks and then were able to play on a consistent basis.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I don't understand how anyone can realistically expect him to play in more than 100 games in any capacity. It would be great to see him play in your 108 game scenario, but I see a lot of posters suggesting 140 games and that's just not realistic

This is an issue - the number of times Buxton can play. I don't believe we are privy to the physical challenges of Byron Buxton at this time. Yes, he has had some knee and hip injuries, but many players have returned and played on after a full recovery. Byron has missed games for so many reasons and some of those reasons are not exactly recurring problems. There is plenty of history and speculation, much of which we could say makes sense from what we do know, but the situation will just need to play out until there is a definitive comment or decision that indicates that Buxton just cannot physically play on a regular basis and that his days on the grass are over. For now, the Twins are easing Buxton into the season. I think we will have more of an idea by mid May. 

[IndianaTwin]

5 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

What I'm not understanding is that you state, "Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows." Generally as the season goes on a players health deteriorates instead of getting healthier. And with Buxtons history. I don't understand how anyone can realistically expect him to play in more than 100 games in any capacity. It would be great to see him play in your 108 game scenario, but I see a lot of posters suggesting 140 games and that's just not realistic

Sorry — I wasn’t clear. I meant start with all of his games (roughly two of three) at DH, transitioning over time toward playing some fraction of the games in CF.

I’d agree that in general health deteriorates, but it seems the way they are approaching Buxton is more analogous to a starting pitcher building up to longer outings over the course of spring training.

[Jocko87]

Is this the thread where we post $100m contracts and laugh about what a great deal we got?

Next door over? Ok, I’ll show myself out. 

[Minny505]

I wonder if there has been any consideration to moving Buxton to RF. It is so much less stress on the body.

Some MLB teams already employ a top-speed RF who would certainly be good-to-great in CF, such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Dalton Varsho, Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia, and soon, Fernando Tatis Jr. Many of these RFers are played there with the explicit reason of keeping them healthy. 

[rv78]

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Kepler is still being used because, even though he may not be what we hope for offensively, nobody else has done what's needed to take the spot away from him.  Buxton is not being used defensively, NOW.  That could change.  As could someone else show enough stick to take away Kepler's spot.  Hasn't happened yet.

Reason#1, WHY Kepler hasn't been replaced is because the Twins didn't make it a priority. There were plenty of options in Free Agency to sign a BETTER outfielder. Instead they chose to acquire one than is an even worse hitter than Kepler, Joey Gallo. Together they are costing the Twins $19.5M in 2023. That's a lot of money for 2 guys that strike out a ton and hit weak grounders to 2nd base. I would think for $19.5M they could have found 1 outfielder that could be better than both of them combined, (And then use Wallner, Garlick as backups).  Reason#2, Kepler would have to be traded and there probably weren't any takers, which is the real proof of what he is worth, (less than his $8.5M), or released which means the Twins would get no return at all and they are not in the habit of eating their bigger contracts for nothing in return.

[USNMCPO]

On 3/26/2023 at 12:49 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Good question. His numbers are about the same. 

Showed more power when playing in the field but drew more walks when he DH-ed. Last yr 2022 was really the only season he was DH so it's the only season I looked at, and maybe too small a sample to draw a conclusion. By the way you can go to a stat site and search by 'splits' and Baseball Reference has other good ones you can look at

. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2022&t=b

Thank you for the info. And you are right that there was not much difference. I would hope that because he is healthier this year that the stats will improve. 

[mrtwinsfan]

On 3/26/2023 at 10:10 AM, umterp23 said:

Buxton is only elite in the field based on paper at this time.  We locked him in on a favorable contract to DH and play what 50 games in the OF if he gets the whole spring off to make sure he is warmed up enough to play in the field.  Makes me laugh.  He isn't elite if he isn't playing in the field.  He is a below avg DH at this time.  Stats tell us so based on his career.  He has played over 100 games in a season, once in his career.  Let's read that again, once in his career.  He has avg 73 games per year or 45% of game action.  Granted, 1st year is into year to his career and the Covid year, but the numbers don't put him in elite status.  

Buxton and only Buxton can change this narrative of perception of elite vs reality of elite

Spot on, if ??????? Hey Byron Prove us all wrong, , He is what he has Proved-- which is Below average to this year

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, rv78 said:

Reason#1, WHY Kepler hasn't been replaced is because the Twins didn't make it a priority. There were plenty of options in Free Agency to sign a BETTER outfielder. Instead they chose to acquire one than is an even worse hitter than Kepler, Joey Gallo. Together they are costing the Twins $19.5M in 2023. That's a lot of money for 2 guys that strike out a ton and hit weak grounders to 2nd base. I would think for $19.5M they could have found 1 outfielder that could be better than both of them combined, (And then use Wallner, Garlick as backups).  Reason#2, Kepler would have to be traded and there probably weren't any takers, which is the real proof of what he is worth, (less than his $8.5M), or released which means the Twins would get no return at all and they are not in the habit of eating their bigger contracts for nothing in return.

They were unable to replace, via the farm, a corner outfielder that the fan base has deemed highly replaceable.  Does not speak well of said farm.

[jkcarew]

I'll never get the argument that having a guy stand in front of 99 mph fastballs, swinging the bat, checking his swing, running the bases, slide, etc...is going to protect him from injury.

Do you reduce the odds? With Buxton? How much? If management really believed this was significant, wouldn’t they have risked more than 8 PA at DH this spring (with 5 K)? As is, you're taking a guy who has huge value defensively, taking all that value away, and making him a DH where his value will be slightly (probably, but not definitely) above average in that role.

What I would expect, is for Buxton to DH against lefties...that way, you're not losing as much OFFENSE in CF with Taylor. Against righties, I would expect him to play mostly CF (occasionally rest, occasionally DH)

Instead, it appears we'll aim for mediocrity.

[gman]

If Buxton plays less than 75 games in centerfield this year,  is there really any reason to consider him the starter there next year. Lewis or Martin, may be prepared to take over in center by the end of this year. Maybe next year if Kepler and Gallo are gone Buxton could start some games in right with an occasional game in center.