Randy Dobnak put on waivers

[Reptevia]

7 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

Didn't someone make a post at the height of Dobnak optimism that he would be a Cy Young candidate?

From what I’ve read on this forum, I would be amazed if someone didn’t say it. There are so many people on here that take *any* sign of competence, no matter how small the sample size, to proclaim some prospect or bench player world beaters. See: how the Twins season would have been 180° better if only Larnach, Kiriloff and Jeffers wouldn’t have gotten hurt!  

[Trov]

14 hours ago, David Maro said:

Probably a nice guy,but a flash in the pan pitcher. Have to give him credit he got the fools we call FO to sign him to a life changing deal. But what more can you expect from them. Anyone who knows baseball knew Donaldson was a bad fit. They will more than likely be looking to sign dead arm pitchers for next year. We can all see Correa is now playing up to his contact to help him in the off season.

 

 

Although the contract to Dobnak is life changing it is not some crazy amount of money to the Twins that it was a bad signing.  We could not predict he would have injuries that set him back so much.  It is not like the contract he signed was expecting him to be a top line starter, but that of a 5th starter or long man out of pen.  Could we have waited sure, but stop acting like we are financially strapped from signing of Dobnak.  Should he never return we are out 8 million total through next 6 years.  Pretty sure this will not affect the Twins signing any future players. 

[Reptevia]

Agree with Trov. I liked the signing then; I still like it. 

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is not like the contract he signed was expecting him to be a top line starter, but that of a 5th starter or long man out of pen.

What is the point of locking up a potential 5th starter or long reliever long term?

[joefish]

His demise came immediately after the sticky stuff was banned. I don't expect to see him pitch for the Twins again. He was a fun story.

[Finlander]

Assuming he invests wisely, he will never have to be an Uber driver again.

Think JoeFish is onto something about the crackdown on sticky fingers...

[msukirbycarew]

And what factual information do you have that makes you believe he was only good because he used " sticky stuff"? Why spread derogatory rumors with no evidence to back up your statement. Just another negative take for the sake of being negative.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, joefish said:

His demise came immediately after the sticky stuff was banned. I don't expect to see him pitch for the Twins again. He was a fun story.

I love that you think people actually stopped using "sticky stuff".

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, joefish said:

His demise came immediately after the sticky stuff was banned. I don't expect to see him pitch for the Twins again. He was a fun story.

That had nothing to do with it. He has had injuries both last year and this.

[bean5302]

Dobnak's contract looks like this:
2023 = $1.50MM 
2024 = $2.25MM
2025 = $3.00MM

If Dobnak accepts the assignment to AAA, his contract will be guaranteed.
If Dobnak rejects the assignment to AAA, his contract will be nullified and he'll become a free agent, immediately.

There is some incentive for a team to claim Dobnak. The contract is much smaller than any team would pay for a free agent starter and smaller than what a starter would probably earn by their 2nd year of arbitration.

In addition, a claiming team could just do the same thing the Twins are doing now, only do it next year when Dobnak has 4 years instead of 3 of service time.

I'm not really vested in this as the roster spot is more valuable than the salary savings and Dobnak looks cooked with the injury. I don't like seeing injuries wipe out potential careers, even for the guys who weren't likely to be superstars.

[Otaknam]

I was baffled as to why the front office decided to sign Dobnak to an extended contract when he was mediocre at best. Another mistake by the FO, along with the Mahle and Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Has any Twins reliever since Ron Davis blown as many saves as Pagan? 

[twinfan]

Why give up Urshela (who can even play ss if Correa leaves) , Fullmer, Garlick and Bundy? I'd even keep Gary Sanchez to DH if we can't get another one (don't know about Cano or anyone else). I don't trust any other catcher to hit anything though Sanchez can't catch. If we don't get a good closer, Fullmer can do it if absolutely necessary. Are all those on the IL that much better? We don't even know if Kirilloff can ever play again.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins control (controlled?) Dobnak for three more seasons. It’s a terrible decision to let him go if injuries is the reason.

I think Dobnak flashed just enough potential that some rebuilding team might take a chance on him. 
 

[Trov]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What is the point of locking up a potential 5th starter or long reliever long term?

The point is that if he pitched beyond expectations then he is a cheap great signing, but if he pitches to expectations or below we are not out much money.  His first season with Twins, he pitched very well in a short sample size.  Similar to other signings of young guys where teams lock them up through arbitration years is based on cost control.  If he breaks out and pitches great he would cost much more than what is, but if he does not, as he has not, then we are not out a whole lot.  It was a low risk high reward move. 

[prouster]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What is the point of locking up a potential 5th starter or long reliever long term?

If I remember correctly, Berrios was the only starter they had under contract for more than one year. There is value in having stability, even on the back end.

[Shaitan]

21 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Not really surprising?

I'm honestly surprised he's healthy/eligible.

It's been a rough couple of years for him.

[Shaitan]

Unless a team desperately needs a starter, I imagine he'll be back with the Twins but off the 40.

a) He hasn't pitched in 2 years.

b) The contract.

c) Teams already made their September call-ups. Further changes are unlikely.

[Johnny Ringo]

If you constructed a Mount Rushmore for the four most accomplished people in Twins history, it would honor:

Killebrew, Carew, Puckett, Randy Dobnak's agent 

But not necessarily in that order.

 

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Has any Twins reliever since Ron Davis blown as many saves as Pagan? 

The only major league pitcher with more blown saves than Pagan this year is.... Taylor Rogers.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, twinfan said:

Why give up Urshela (who can even play ss if Correa leaves) , Fullmer, Garlick and Bundy? I'd even keep Gary Sanchez to DH if we can't get another one (don't know about Cano or anyone else). I don't trust any other catcher to hit anything though Sanchez can't catch. If we don't get a good closer, Fullmer can do it if absolutely necessary. Are all those on the IL that much better? We don't even know if Kirilloff can ever play again.

What does this have to do with Dobnak being DFA'd? LOL

[bighat]

Another Twins feel-good story gone to mush. Toss it on the pile. 

[Irishman]

5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I was baffled as to why the front office decided to sign Dobnak to an extended contract when he was mediocre at best. Another mistake by the FO, along with the Mahle and Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Has any Twins reliever since Ron Davis blown as many saves as Pagan? 

Otaknam, I agree with 100%.  

[Boom Boom]

3 hours ago, prouster said:

If I remember correctly, Berrios was the only starter they had under contract for more than one year. There is value in having stability, even on the back end.

I feel like having a few 40 man options stashed at AAA is plenty of stability for the back end.

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

The point is that if he pitched beyond expectations then he is a cheap great signing, but if he pitches to expectations or below we are not out much money.  His first season with Twins, he pitched very well in a short sample size.  Similar to other signings of young guys where teams lock them up through arbitration years is based on cost control.  If he breaks out and pitches great he would cost much more than what is, but if he does not, as he has not, then we are not out a whole lot.  It was a low risk high reward move. 

How much do you need to control cost if his ceiling is backend starter/long relief though? Every organization has fringe or AAAA players that can flash for a moment. If these deals are so low risk, why aren't other organizations rushing to hand out similar contracts to those types?

I'd imagine it has a lot to do with a hit rate that's considerably lower than the the risk, i.e. if the gamble is small, but your ROI is abysmal, why bother, particularly in the Twins case when you've got plenty of time at a suppressed cost to sort out performance questions.  

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Has any Twins reliever since Ron Davis blown as many saves as Pagan? 

Ron Davis is the MLB record holder (tied) with 14 blown saves in a season. Bob Wells blew 10 saves in 2000. Rick Aguilera blew 11 saves in 1998.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The only major league pitcher with more blown saves than Pagan this year is.... Taylor Rogers.

how about you know, actual saves, how do those stack up by chance  

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

How much do you need to control cost if his ceiling is backend starter/long relief though? Every organization has fringe or AAAA players that can flash for a moment. If these deals are so low risk, why aren't other organizations rushing to hand out similar contracts to those types?

I'd imagine it has a lot to do with a hit rate that's considerably lower than the the risk, i.e. if the gamble is small, but your ROI is abysmal, why bother, particularly in the Twins case when you've got plenty of time at a suppressed cost to sort out performance questions.  

I’m sure they were anticipating more than being a back end starter. That was the year when he was working on the slider and it looked good in spring training. Then they inexplicably announced the extension at the end of spring training. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m sure they were anticipating more than being a back end starter. That was the year when he was working on the slider and it looked good in spring training. Then they inexplicably announced the extension at the end of spring training. 

Maybe? They demoted him to finish 2020, so if they thought they were buying something other than a backend guy...woof. 

[bean5302]

This all seems like a like of strong opinions for a guy earning $2MM on average over the next 3 years. I actually advocated DFA'ing Dobnak before the season even began. Was the front office mistaken on Dobnak? Yes. Was it a huge mistake? Obviously not, just because of the small dollar amounts. I think the bigger issue was the roster space. Dobnak stuck on the roster longer than he should have because of the contract. Did Dobnak cost Wade or Baddoo or Wells? Meh. Who knows?

Then again, what seems like a small dollar amount of $2MM a year would go a long ways to in regard to increasing MiLB salaries, wouldn't it? LOL

[bean5302]

I should note, the wheels fell off Wells recently and Baddoo and Wade have been largely useless this year.