Twins Trade Deadline 2022: Buy or Sell?

[cHawk]

The Twins currently stand at 38-30 (0.559) and are leading the division. However, some don't trust this Twins team as much as others. Some have said they do not want this team to go 'all in' at the deadline.

Questions for Discussion:
1. Should this team buy or sell at the deadline? If you have a side, how far to that side are you leaning and why?
2. If you think this team should buy, what should they be looking for? (SP, RP, Offense, etc) or If you think this team should sell, who should they look to unload?
3. What should the Twins' goal for the 2022 season be? Why?
4. What should the Twins' goal for 2023-beyond be? Why?

[Major League Ready]

Need a 3rd category of on the fence and need to see what happens in the next month.  

As of this moment, I would do some of both.  I would trade for at least 1 RP and try to trade Urshela, and Archer or Bundy.  Sano would get traded if possible and I would consider trading Maeda if the offer was good.  I am a Polanco fan but I would trade him and put Arraez at 2nd if the offer was great.

[nicksaviking]

There is zero reason to sell, even if you don't buy that this team is ready to win a WS.

There is NO ROOM for more prospects on the 40 man. It wouldn't be a trade of Correa for prospects A, B and C, it would be a trade of Correa AND Brent Headrick AND Alex Isola for prospects A, B and C. If you take back more prospects, the team is going to have to get rid of some, and unlike most years, they ones they'd have to get rid of look really, really good. They need to clear 40 man spots at the moment, not add to them.

[bunsen82]

There should be 4 options

1. Buy

2. Sell

3. Stand Pat

4. Buy and Sell

Personally I still think they should buy and sell, if they can but I am unsure if that can come to fruition.  I think they will put Correa on the trade table, but they will have to be blown away.  The only other player I could see them trading is Urshela.  So what can they do to make the team better.  I would look at adding 2 relief pitchers, add Maeda and Archer to the bullpen.  Add another SP with more than 1 year of control.  Ultimately that means we would also need a SS who is a step down from Correa probably with 1 1/2 years of control to help manage that position until Lewis is back.   The Twins have begun to play the type of ball I have expected from them all year.   They are a team that has some pieces but are still a year or two from really making a dent in the post season is my assessment.  Do enough to get them in the playoffs and get their feet wet while also preparing for 2023 and 2024 when we should have more talent available to really try to push all in.  

[cHawk]

I have added the two options that @bunsen82 requested. Those of you who couldn't vote earlier because the two newest options weren't available, they are available now.

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

There is zero reason to sell, even if you don't buy that this team is ready to win a WS.

There is NO ROOM for more prospects on the 40 man. It wouldn't be a trade of Correa for prospects A, B and C, it would be a trade of Correa AND Brent Headrick AND Alex Isola for prospects A, B and C. If you take back more prospects, the team is going to have to get rid of some, and unlike most years, they ones they'd have to get rid of look really, really good. They need to clear 40 man spots at the moment, not add to them.

The prospects taken wouldn't necessarily have to be added to the 40 man.   If you do a buy and sell you can sell some of the prospects that we would potentially lose or prospects higher up that are protected or will have to be protected that will open up a spot for more of those fringe 40 man spots.  I made a post showing the 40 man will not be as much of an issue as many think,  but there would be 2-3 players at risk once it is all said and done like most years.  

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The prospects taken wouldn't necessarily have to be added to the 40 man.   If you do a buy and sell you can sell some of the prospects that we would potentially lose or prospects higher up that are protected or will have to be protected that will open up a spot for more of those fringe 40 man spots.  I made a post showing the 40 man will not be as much of an issue as many think,  but there would be 2-3 players at risk once it is all said and done like most years.  

As much as I'd like to see it, there is zero chance next year's 40-man roster is made up of 35 players with 3 or fewer years of MLB experience. They will 100% put aside roster spots for vets and/or AAAA fodder that the fans want absolutely nothing to do with. There will certainly be some gag-worthy, deep-cut relief arms in there just as there are every year.

And why would the Twins trade their vets alongside prospects for other prospects? That makes no sense, why wouldn't you just keep your own prospects and play out the season with the vet?

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

As much as I'd like to see it, there is zero chance next year's 40-man roster is made up of 35 players with 3 or fewer years of MLB experience. They will 100% put aside roster spots for vets that the fans want absolutely nothing to do with.

And why would the Twins trade their vets alongside prospects for other prospects? That makes no sense, why wouldn't you just keep your own prospects and play out the season with the vet?

You currently have several players on the 40 man that are underperforming.  They can be taken off or retained.   Miranda/Steer likely take over for Urshela.  Sanchez will have to be resigned or someone replace.  However Godoy can be dropped and Isola can fill his spot.  You have 2-3 relievers and 2 starting positions that spots can either be given to prospects to fill for next year, give them an opportunity or sign new relief pitchers.  We have 2 SP with option contracts that we either fill internally or bring back.  

So why would a team do this maneuvering? To gain flexibility,  manage their prospects to bring the best value back to the organization.  If 1-2 top prospects could be gained from trading Correa,  you can bolster the top level of your pipeline.  You can utilize our several prospects that are showing potential but are not top prospects to bring back pieces to help this year.  Some of those middling prospects could be lost during the rule V draft so we can maximize their value now to help the team this year.  

I really have no clue which direction they are going to go in.  Lewis getting injured really changed my views on how they would treat this season.  Or they could do something that many thought was unthinkable, if Correa still really want to stay in Minnesota sign him to an extension and trade away Lewis if someone is willing to give top value for him.  There are so many different directions for this team it is hard to predict which direction they will go in.  

[Dman]

I voted to buy.  They have prospect capital so should be able to get at minimum some rental relievers as they shouldn't cost much.  I agree with Nicksaviking in that they have too many guys they need to protect so if they can make their team better this year by losing a few prospects why not do it.  

The Twins are leading their division in June if they are major seller's that would just be sad at this point.  While the offense does like to sputter and the pen a bit of a weakness I still think this is a team that can be in the hunt until the end.  When you are there you have to try and get over the hump.  What happens next year is no guarantee.  Injuries can devastate potential in a hurry.  Bank on today as well as tomorrow. I think the Twins can do both.

[Doctor Gast]

No doubter, BUY. We have an unique opportunity when CC fell into our hands to make and advance in the post season. Yes we have a few weaknesses, that's why we need to be aggressive buyers. We can't be wishy/ washy by standing pat or buy/ sell or worse yet like Dman said absolutely not punting.

ATL was in a lot worse position last year than us and they chose to buy. And they became WS champs. Things could easily gel for us, together with some key pieces we could also put it all together and win the WS.

This FO has never been buyers at the deadline even when we were doing very good like '19 &'20. They love to be courted to sell. I'd like this FO to step up and show us that they can be big buyer w/o wavering at the deadline. If not it'd be very sad indeed.

[nicksaviking]

36 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

So why would a team do this maneuvering? To gain flexibility,  manage their prospects to bring the best value back to the organization.  If 1-2 top prospects could be gained from trading Correa,  you can bolster the top level of your pipeline.  You can utilize our several prospects that are showing potential but are not top prospects to bring back pieces to help this year.  Some of those middling prospects could be lost during the rule V draft so we can maximize their value now to help the team this year.  

 

Help the team this year? Whilst trading Correa? Your argument is completely contradictory.

Again, the top of the prospect pipeline doesn't need to be bolstered. Adding more of these guys will leave the team open to losing the prospects already in house. And if you think the prospects you'd get back for Correa are significantly better than the prospects the team already has, than you haven't paid attention to how prospects work. It took Spencer Steer, Josh Winder and Louie Varland about a month to pass Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino, you know, the team's elite prospects last year. 

There is just so much less value in trying to get these extra prospects than there is in showing the team you're committed to giving them the best chance to win by having star players around. Everyone would get it if they were an average team, but why would these current players want to continue to fight or even want to play in Minnesota if the organization starts shedding payroll on a 1st place team? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I would both buy and sell, but a lot depends on whether Correa is planning on staying a year. If he is, then I would be going to trade a couple of prospects for higher end pitching, but I would exclude Miranda, Kirilloff and Lewis. Everyone else not on the current 26 man roster is fair game and Larnach and Winder are it also fair game. If he is not, we probably need to save our prospects and should of the trade lower level guys for relief options. That means middling relief options but it doesn't make sense to me to lose high end prospects for just this season. I just don't think we're close enough to truly contending to do it for this year, but I would do something for next year if Correa is going to stay. My willingness the trade our better prospects or someone like Montas, Castillo or Mahle all depends on whether we will be true contenders next year, with the possibility of some playoff success this year, and that depends on whether Correa is sticking around. 

[RpR]

Miranda's defense is not good, Kirilloff is batting at the same rate before he was sent down, Lewis -- tomorrow, tomorrow....

[MMMordabito]

I voted buy, but don't sell the whole farm.  Moving some fliers for some expiring contract bullpen help would be best.  I think Montas will require and unwise overpay.  I'd rather see the team buy low on someone like Marquez and see if a change of scenery and a winning team can right his ship and help with the playoff run.  He's also controllable through 2024.  Balazovic, Steer and Sabato/CES might get it done.

[bunsen82]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Help the team this year? Whilst trading Correa? Your argument is completely contradictory.

Again, the top of the prospect pipeline doesn't need to be bolstered. Adding more of these guys will leave the team open to losing the prospects already in house. And if you think the prospects you'd get back for Correa are significantly better than the prospects the team already has, than you haven't paid attention to how prospects work. It took Spencer Steer, Josh Winder and Louie Varland about a month to pass Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino, you know, the team's elite prospects last year. 

There is just so much less value in trying to get these extra prospects than there is in showing the team you're committed to giving them the best chance to win by having star players around. Everyone would get it if they were an average team, but why would these current players want to continue to fight or even want to play in Minnesota if the organization starts shedding payroll on a 1st place team? 

Tampa Bay is doing well because they continually have a pipeline ready to fill any holes.  You have to continually replenish your prospects because not all of them will pan out.  

What did the Twins do prior to this season, they got rid of Garver, 3rd backup catcher, Donaldson, Rogers.  Those are all sell moves.  

Buy moves,  traded 1st round pitcher for Gray,  signed Correa.  

Not every move they make is for moving forward for this year.  I still think there could be a blockbuster deal with the Padres especially with another injury to a key player.  I could see Correa/Kepler  for Hosmer/ (Darvish, Clevinger or Snell) plus 1 top prospect.  Money could be close on that type of trade.  This really comes down to how is Tatis progressing and so far I haven't hear much.   

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Tampa Bay is doing well because they continually have a pipeline ready to fill any holes. 

 

Is that truly what Tampa Does their 4 leading pitchers by inning, is McClanahan (from their minors), Kluber, Rasmusssen, and Springs, none of them came out of the Rays minors.

They have like three offensive starters out of their minors (Kiermaier (32) Franco (21) and Walls(25))

Arozarena (Stl), Ramirez (MIA, Clev), Diaz (Clev), Margot (SD), Choi (LAA, NYY, MIL), Both of their catchers were trades.

 

[DocBauer]

While not firing on all cylinders all the time...and I'm not sure anyone does...this Twins term IS a quality, winning, contending team. Health and injury has bogged the Twins down a bit in early June, but health is returning. And it will, hopefully, be that much better over the next week or two as guys ramp up to 100% and Polanco and Winder get healthy, though Winder MIGHT stick at St Paul for a little while to build his arm back up. Hopefully, we get a healthy Alcala back by the end of July. I believe this team is in BUY mode, for sure, with some caveats. 

Let me try to phrase this properly. I like this team an awful lot. They are a great mix of young and young-ish players, with only a couple exceptions, who are going to be around for at least a few more years to come. Contracts and payroll are largely under control, offering flexibility. The milb system is having an OUTSTANDING season, even as a few prospects have struggled, or are just getting it going. And yet, others have clearly jumped up as well. Kudos! Unfortunately, a couple, potential, important pieces have struggled a bit thus far. Balazovic hasn't gotten going yet, Canterino has has, hopefully, a mild setback, Lewis is done until mid 2023, Sands has only flashed a little, and 40 man Strotman has almost detonated. On the other side of things, Larnach and Miranda are growing up right before our eyes along with Celestino and Winder, before injury. Kirilloff SEEMS to be getting it together, and there is real hope he's past issues and is here to stay. All very good things!

I believe the Twins are a very good team that is just about to put it all together. And yes, I mean even this year, despite having some holes. I still believe 2020 and some injuries...Lewis and AK to be sure...have slowed the development of a few very good young players that still impact 2022.

You build the best team you can, and you NEVER FEAR anyone. The Yankees are on pace to maybe break W-L records? Maybe. But we blew their doors off in 1 game at home and nearly did the same, or at least win, if ONE BP arm stepped up that 3rd day. And who knows, maybe the Twins wouldn't face the Yanks in the playoffs this year. Anyone can beat anyone in a short series. Witness various Doger losses, and the Braves winning it all just recently. 

I feel the Twins, still building with so many talented young pieces, are a quality team that might not hit their peak until 2023-24, but are good enough to challenge that it would be a HUGE disappointment not to buy and augment the current roster!

Barring a collapse that I feel could only happen due to mass injury, Correa isn't going anywhere. To do so would only open a HUGE hole and offer no immediate return. And we don't need prospects for one of the top players in all of MLB while we're contending. If not beyond, Correa stays for 2022.

Unless you are trading youth and potential and control, there is no major offensive gain to be added by a trade for a position player on anything short term,

Unless you are trading youth and potential and control, there is no major SP gain to be added by a trade for a short term addition, IMO. Are you really going to get someone better than Gray and Ryan to add? You'd better. And he better have at least another year, if not more, for what it would potentially cost in what you give up.

So unless, unless some more, with all due respect to the guys who have held the pen together with duct tape and potential, what this team really needs is a pair of quality RP options for the pen. You can do like 2019 and trade for a couple short term, quality arms and trade from the back end up the prospect pool, OR, you can trade more from the front end of the talent pool and grab a couple live arms from losing teams that have at least one more year of control. If you do that, you potentially finish 2022 STRONG in the pen along with what you have, believe in your offense, trust in your rotation, and have a pen mostly constructed for 2023. Either could work.

One way or another, the Twins need to be buyers. Anything can happen for a good and potentially dangerous team with a better pen. But I don't feel this is the year for any sort of MAJOR trading sell off to buy.

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

In a fantasy league things like this are simple and just for fun. In real life this is way too complex and nuanced to be categorized into just buy, sell, or stand pat. Buy what and how much of it and for how long, and at what price? Sell what and how much of it, and at what price? And as with any transaction, what is the expected or hoped-for benefit to the team? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Wanted: One really good, right handed reliever ( I submit Maeda may fill that need) and one really good, left handed reliever (I don't think Smeltzer will fill that need. We had one of the best lefty relievers in the game,  but ill- advisedly traded him to the Giants). These relievers need to be able to have pin point location and not walk anybody. Nobody walks but the Twins. Nobody. Duran, Jax and Pagan can be counted on. Cotton may help. The Duffman may get things figured out and be reliable again this season. With this Platinum defense up the middle (Buck and Carlos), plus Kepler and Celestino and  Urshela,  and Alex at 1B and Polanco at 2B and Arraez at DH, get pitchers  who throw the ball over the plate. Maeda could be a key. Next year he can go back to starting. 

[TheLeviathan]

Both the team's current and future make-up and payroll indicate an ideal year to buy.  And not just nibbly sort of buys....but go get a bigtime DH/OF or SP.  Not to mention some RP help.

[ashbury]

59 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

We had one of the best lefty relievers in the game,  but ill- advisedly traded him to the Giants

There is a Rogers on the Giants.  However, unless I am mistaken:

[JustinTyner]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is that truly what Tampa Does their 4 leading pitchers by inning, is McClanahan (from their minors), Kluber, Rasmusssen, and Springs, none of them came out of the Rays minors.

They have like three offensive starters out of their minors (Kiermaier (32) Franco (21) and Walls(25))

Arozarena (Stl), Ramirez (MIA, Clev), Diaz (Clev), Margot (SD), Choi (LAA, NYY, MIL), Both of their catchers were trades.

 

@bunsen82is quite literally saying exactly you what you just decided to re phrase. they continuously stock the organization, pitching or position players, at any level. Yes

[bean5302]

No idea and I won't be able to rationally speculate for another month. The Twins could just as easily be 3rd in the division and 5+ GB as 5+ games up and leading the division by then.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, JustinTyner said:

@bunsen82is quite literally saying exactly you what you just decided to re phrase. they continuously stock the organization, pitching or position players, at any level. Yes

Interesting I thought they were saying they continue reload from the minors,

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

There is a Rogers on the Giants.  However, unless I am mistaken:

I am such an idiot. Thanks for gently telling me I am wrong. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wanted: One really good, right handed reliever ( I submit Maeda may fill that need) and one really good, left handed reliever (I don't think Smeltzer will fill that need. We had one of the best lefty relievers in the game,  but ill- advisedly traded him to the Giants). These relievers need to be able to have pin point location and not walk anybody. Nobody walks but the Twins. Nobody. Duran, Jax and Pagan can be counted on. Cotton may help. The Duffman may get things figured out and be reliable again this season. With this Platinum defense up the middle (Buck and Carlos), plus Kepler and Celestino and  Urshela,  and Alex at 1B and Polanco at 2B and Arraez at DH, get pitchers  who throw the ball over the plate. Maeda could be a key. Next year he can go back to starting. 

Padres, not the Giants. I got those Rogers' twins, one of whom was a Twin, mixed up. My mistake.  

[farmerguychris]

I'd be ok selling in positions of depth such as Kepler or Sano to buy for a position of need such as a pitcher. But I'd want a return of something greater than a 1/2 year rental pitcher in return.  Getting a pitcher with at least 1 more year of team control would be a requirement.

 

[Battle ur tail off]

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Need a 3rd category of on the fence and need to see what happens in the next month.  

As of this moment, I would do some of both.  I would trade for at least 1 RP and try to trade Urshela, and Archer or Bundy.  Sano would get traded if possible and I would consider trading Maeda if the offer was good.  I am a Polanco fan but I would trade him and put Arraez at 2nd if the offer was great.

You won't get anything for those three players. So, if you want to get them off the roster for the sake of freeing up spots on the 40 man, that is the only reason to do it. Dumping 2 pitchers that are as of right now in your starting rotation is also not very wise. 

Urshela might get you something, but he is exactly the kind of guy playoff teams have to be a utility man. He plays great defense and his bat isn't terrible. Unless the return for him is a fairly solid relief pitcher, I would hang onto him. Also, I am not ready to give 3B 100% to Miranda with no backup plan yet.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

You won't get anything for those three players. So, if you want to get them off the roster for the sake of freeing up spots on the 40 man, that is the only reason to do it. Dumping 2 pitchers that are as of right now in your starting rotation is also not very wise. 

Urshela might get you something, but he is exactly the kind of guy playoff teams have to be a utility man. He plays great defense and his bat isn't terrible. Unless the return for him is a fairly solid relief pitcher, I would hang onto him. Also, I am not ready to give 3B 100% to Miranda with no backup plan yet.

 

They got Sisk for Happ who looked horrible so they can get something for Bundy and they can certainly get something for Archer.  Note I did not say I would trade them today and also note I said one of Bundy or Archer so they still have Gray / Ryan / Winder / Ober / Smeltzer and one of Archer or Bundy.  

Arraez or Steer is the back-up plan for Miranda.   In other words, they are 3 deep behind Urshela.  

[Peter]

Sell!!! After last night season is done