Tyler Duffey has been BAD, but why?

[Jack Griffin]

Its not a secret that Tyler Duffey's 2022 season has been frustrating, Duffey said it himself after giving up 3 runs against the Yankees last night:

Quote

"Its (expletive) frustrating" 

Duffey said, cutting in before the first question of his postgame press conference had even ended.

(Link to article you can find this quote Tyler Duffey's struggles continue against Yankees (mlb.com))

Duffey is going through the worst stretch of his career by far, Although it wasn't long ago that the Doof (self-appointed nickname) was one of the more trusted back end options on a Twins playoff team, so what's changed? lets take a deeper look at some of his numbers to see if we can find some answers.

The first and most obvious metric to look at when trying to examine why a pitcher has seemingly fallen off a proverbial cliff, is velocity.

Okay so that hasn't changed much. In 2020 and 2021 Duffey was still an effective option with around the same pitch velocities. So although as his career has progressed his velocity has slowly decreased, its not extreme enough to cause this massive of a change.

So his pitches are the same speed as they were before, maybe they are moving less?

Wow, his pitches are actually moving slightly more than before.

So his first two obvious points of reference look okay, at least comparable to his pervious effective years, but when trying to figure out a player those numbers are only the tip of the iceberg. Lets look into some of the frustrating not ideal numbers.

Now some things are staring to make sense. All his "expected" (x) numbers are by far the worst of his career, and some of the worst in the league. How do you calculate these numbers? you may ask, well nerds take the average exit velocity and launch angle he allows and apply that to what is "expected" of a ball hit at those numbers, and Duffey has been expected to give up a lot this season.

So looking those numbers, we can start to see what has gone wrong for Duffey. 

His velocity hasn't changed, but what seems to have is his mindset. The mind games while pitching is one of the most important aspects, by getting in their own heads pitchers can almost seemingly forget how to pitch, see Rick Ankiel.

Duffey is still throwing the same pitches as he normally has, but his ability to locate them has diminished, more specifically his curveball. For most of his career thus far his curveball was his best pitch, and it was very effective, this year it is has not been. Without his most effective pitch he has been forced to rely on the others in his arsenal, leading to batters seemingly teeing off on him:

These are his conventional hitting stats he has allowed over the last 3 seasons. The average batter he has faced this season has turned into 2021 Jose Ramirez, which any twins fans should know is extremely annoying to face.

So why is Duffey struggling? The simple answer is: he can't locate his pitches. He has been hanging his pitches over the heart of the plate (much like he did to Rizzo in the 7th last night) Time will tell if he can figure things out, Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson seem intent on giving him the opportunity to do so. 

All I know is it has been very frustrating to watch.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Welcome to the forum!

And nice research -- sorry it had to be about such a negative topic...

[baul0010]

I feel like spin rate analysis might have been better than velocity.  I think velocity could better reflect injury vs. performance.  Lots of players lose velocity and we find out that they were injured, leading to their poor performance.  

With Duff's last 1.5+ it leads me to believe he may have benefitted from some "sticky stuff".  That is just a nobody speculating though.  I've never looked into his rates from when he was rolling good versus now.  

[twins_89]

Good analysis. It's pretty obvious that Duffey's issues are almost completely about being able to locate his pitches. When opposing hitters layoff his curveball he gets hammered. Part of that is that he leaves the fastball over the heart of plate way too often and hitters are waiting for it.

[Jack Griffin]

2 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I feel like spin rate analysis might have been better than velocity.  I think velocity could better reflect injury vs. performance.  Lots of players lose velocity and we find out that they were injured, leading to their poor performance.  

With Duff's last 1.5+ it leads me to believe he may have benefitted from some "sticky stuff".  That is just a nobody speculating though.  I've never looked into his rates from when he was rolling good versus now.  

Looking at his spin rate is interesting too. Because there is no noticeable difference between this year and last, his CB is actually spinning more this season.

It has to be an unfortunate combo of hitters figuring him out in a sense and not locating well.

[Jack Griffin]

15 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Welcome to the forum!

And nice research -- sorry it had to be about such a negative topic...

Long time listener, first time caller!

[Jack Griffin]

2 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

Good analysis. It's pretty obvious that Duffey's issues are almost completely about being able to locate his pitches. When opposing hitters layoff his curveball he gets hammered. Part of that is that he leaves the fastball over the heart of plate way too often and hitters are waiting for it.

That's pretty much the simplest way to put things. With his CB it seems hitters are either laying off it, or hammering it. Opposed to before when they would swing and miss a lot.

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I feel like spin rate analysis might have been better than velocity.  I think velocity could better reflect injury vs. performance.  Lots of players lose velocity and we find out that they were injured, leading to their poor performance.  

With Duff's last 1.5+ it leads me to believe he may have benefitted from some "sticky stuff".  That is just a nobody speculating though.  I've never looked into his rates from when he was rolling good versus now.  

If that were the case last year he should have completely fallen off after they banned the substances.  I think he is losing confidence,  and right now cannot through the pitches the way he was in previous years.  Not sure if ability is slightly waning or more mental.  

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

If that were the case last year he should have completely fallen off after they banned the substances.  I think he is losing confidence,  and right now cannot through the pitches the way he was in previous years.  Not sure if ability is slightly waning or more mental.  

He did fall off a cliff in 2021. 

The comparison should be to 2019, when he actually was effective. I hesitate to use 2 months in 2020, but I guess that would also be the better comparison. 

I suspect grip enhancers as well.

[baul0010]

28 minutes ago, Jack Griffin said:

Looking at his spin rate is interesting too. Because there is no noticeable difference between this year and last, his CB is actually spinning more this season.

It has to be an unfortunate combo of hitters figuring him out in a sense and not locating well.

Sometimes it is just being a reliever.  I think it's a great reason they don't get very long term contracts.  They have it until they don't!  Now it is about how long the team will be loyal to someone costing them games??? 

[Doctor Gast]

I think losing Rogers had something to do with his frame of mind.

[baul0010]

26 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

If that were the case last year he should have completely fallen off after they banned the substances.  I think he is losing confidence,  and right now cannot through the pitches the way he was in previous years.  Not sure if ability is slightly waning or more mental.  

Last year Duffy's walk rate spiked, his strikeouts per nine dropped significantly, and his SO/W was a career low.  He may have just been LUCKY last year.  2019 and 2020 are proving to be the aberrations to his career.  

[baul0010]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

I think losing Rogers had something to do with his frame of mind.

I know they were good friends...But, you can't tank your career because your buds not in the clubhouse.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

41 minutes ago, Jack Griffin said:

Looking at his spin rate is interesting too. Because there is no noticeable difference between this year and last, his CB is actually spinning more this season.

It has to be an unfortunate combo of hitters figuring him out in a sense and not locating well.

Also, thanks for sticking around in the thread for follow up!

i did a quick check of Duffey’s profile page on baseball savant, and pitch tracking - spin rate data only goes back to 2021. Am I missing something, or is that what you are seeing? Last year that data went back further.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tyler-duffey-608648

[Otto von Ballpark]

10 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

i did a quick check of Duffey’s profile page on baseball savant, and pitch tracking - spin rate data only goes back to 2021. Am I missing something, or is that what you are seeing? Last year that data went back further.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tyler-duffey-608648

There should be a "+ Show More Seasons" link at the bottom of the table which will show you all of the data.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

There should be a "+ Show More Seasons" link at the bottom of the table which will show you all of the data.

Thanks! I saw all the years in other tables so I forgot to check for the expand/collapse symbol in that one.

[USAFChief]

I'm 99% certain Duffey doesn't throw 2 types of fastballs. I think that's just computer mislabeling.

That said, his fastball velo is down from 93.9 in 2019.

[Jack Griffin]

46 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm 99% certain Duffey doesn't throw 2 types of fastballs. I think that's just computer mislabeling.

That said, his fastball velo is down from 93.9 in 2019.

There's definitely a good chance that's the case, and yeah his fastball velocity has slowly been dropping, that surely plays at least a little part in it.

[Azviking101]

Sticky stuff

[nicksaviking]

Great stuff, thanks for the contribution!

One one hand, velocity and movement seem to be the things that may diminish over age; locating the pitches often gets better. This may be fixable.

On the other hand, relievers by nature are unpredictable; they seem to have to reinvent themselves regularly and are transient pitchers. Nine years and seven in the bullpen of one team is a looooooooong time in this day and age.

[ashbury]

I love it when analysis matches the eye test!

Don't put the curveball where you want it, expect your fastball to be a fatball.

[old nurse]

Good pitching is like real estate. Location, location, location.

Bad pitting is also location, location location, but location ends up right, left, center

[RaoulDuke]

His curve/ slider used to be such a weapon now hitters are just spitting on it.  No reason to swing at the breaking stuff if he can't hit the corners with it, just wait on that meaty fastball.

I think he is probably cooked but with all the injuries, set backs, rookies, and short starts he will stick around for awhile to hope he can at least stabilize into a mid innings arm.

[PopRiveter]

On 6/8/2022 at 10:48 AM, baul0010 said:

I feel like spin rate analysis might have been better than velocity.  I think velocity could better reflect injury vs. performance.  Lots of players lose velocity and we find out that they were injured, leading to their poor performance.  

With Duff's last 1.5+ it leads me to believe he may have benefitted from some "sticky stuff".  That is just a nobody speculating though.  I've never looked into his rates from when he was rolling good versus now.  

 

On 6/8/2022 at 2:47 PM, Azviking101 said:

Sticky stuff

If it were a matter of Sticky Stuff, wouldn't movement be the problem? That is how it's been described in every article I've ever read about the subject. 

The numbers seem to show that there's been no dropoff in those metrics.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

 

If it were a matter of Sticky Stuff, wouldn't movement be the problem? That is how it's been described in every article I've ever read about the subject. 

The numbers seem to show that there's been no dropoff in those metrics.

He was pretty bad.  Then really good. Now pretty bad.  He's a reliever.  Either start pitching better or start churning through guys to find someone who will.  

[Rosterman]

He has lost his speed mix. Batters lay off the curve. Ands he has to throw it over the plate. 

[PopRiveter]

3 hours ago, baul0010 said:

He was pretty bad.  Then really good. Now pretty bad.  He's a reliever.  Either start pitching better or start churning through guys to find someone who will.  

It’s not the “he’s been bad” that I was talking about, it’s the “why?”

If it was due to sticky stuff, it should be a lack of movement. Looks instead like he’s lost his command.