GAME THREAD: Twins vs Mariners, 4/11/22, 6:40pm CT

[Mill1634]

The Pitchers: RHP Chris Flexen (14-6, 3.61 ERA, 179.2 IP, 125 K's, 3.89 FIP, 3.5 bWAR) vs RHP Dylan Bundy (2-9, 6.06 ERA, 90.2 IP, 84 K's, 5.51 FIP, -0.3 bWAR)

 

I'm back. Good or bad, but I am back. Hopefully Dylan Bundy joins me on the "I'm back" path. Flexen is coming off the best year of his career for the Mariners, and is looking to repeat in 2022. Flexen relies on a 4-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup. He throws the 4S 40% of the time, at an average velocity of 92.8 MPH. This is very similar to Sonny Gray, although his velo was down in his first start of the year. The fastball was hit hard last year for a batting average against of .273, including 8 homers. The cutter also gets hit hard, and he throws it 30% of the time. Flexen's changeup was his best pitch in 2021, with a whiff rate of 26.5%. He allowed just .160 batting average against on this pitch. The curve is thrown as much as the slider, but with much worse success. Flexen was hit hard in ST to the tune of a 7.31 ERA. 

 

Bundy, who signed for 5M before the lockout, is looking to bounceback. The former Angel broke out in 2020, but was terrible in 2021. Bundy relies on a 5 pitch mix of the 4S, slider, sinker, changeup, and curveball. The fastball averages just over 90 MPH, but he limited hits on the pitch. However, it did get taken yard 6 times in just 90 innings. The slider is Bundy's best pitch, with a whiff rate of 36%. I expect the usage on the pitch to raise a fair amount, and think it may be his most used pitch as long as he is on the Twins' roster. While the slider is his best pitch, the sinker is his worst. He gave up .609 points worth of slugging on the pitch in 2021. I expect this pitch to be used far less frequent than the 17.3% it was used last year (just over 8% in 2020.) The changeup is used almost exclusively against LHH, and the curve was fairly good despite being thrown the least amount of the time. 

 

The Lineups

Twins

 

1. Byron Buxton (R) CF
2. Carlos Correa (R) SS
3. Luis Arraez (L) 3B
4. Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
5. Gio Urshela (R) DH
6. Max Kepler (L) RF
7. Gary Sanchez (R) C
8. Miguel Sano (R) 1B
9. Alex Kirilloff (L) LF

 

Mariners

 

1. Adam Frazier (L) DH
2. Ty France (R) 1B
3. Jesse Winker (L) LF
4. Mitch Haniger (R) RF
5. Abraham Toro (S) 2B
6. Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
7. J.P. Crawford (L) SS
8. Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
9. Cal Raleigh (S) C

 

The Twins lineup looks largely similar to the 2nd game of the season when they faced a right hander for the first time. Buxton continues to hit leadoff, while Correa slides up to the 2 spot with Arraez back in the lineup at the hot corner. Polanco slides to the cleanup spot, while Urshella gets his first start at third base. Kepler, coming off a homer yesterday, stays in right field. I have the o/u for "groundballs into the shift" set at 1.5. Sanchez gets his second start behind the dish with Jeffers getting a day off. They'll both be in the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday going against 2 southpaws. Sano slides way down in the order without a hit, as does Alex Kiriloff. The Mariners lineup looks fairly similar as well. Frazier slides to DH today, while Toro, who was acquired for Kendall Gravemen last year, gets his second start of the year at 2B with Adam at DH. Suarez, who swings and misses more than my roommate on Friday night, hits 6th. Julio Rodrigueiz, who is off to a tough start, stays in the lineup, while the Mariners finally reuse one of their 3 catchers. Jared Kelenic is not in tonight's lineup. Byron Buxton has 1 career homers vs Flexen, while no other Twin has 1. Mitch Haniger has taken Dylan Bundy deep once as well, and JP Crawford is hitting .400 in 15 at-bats.

 

Vegas Odds: Mariners +115, Twins -135, O/U 9.5. 

 

On This Day: 1990 - California Angels pitchers Mark Langston and Mike Witt combine to no-hit the Seattle Mariners. Starter Mark Langston is removed after 7 innings and Witt finishes the no-hitter by pitching a perfect eighth and ninth innings.

 

Pick to Click: Miguel Sano gets on the home run board with a 2 run shot in the 2nd innings

 

Prediction: Twins 7, Seattle 5

 

Go Twins!!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Spots 1-7 have all homered.  Guess Sano and Kiriloff have to bomb their way out of the bottom of the lineup.

[Tjwalsh65]

My Pick is Arraez to get 3 hits.

 

[Vanimal46]

Jealous of the people attending the game tonight. It’s a perfect early spring evening. My dog refuses to get back to the house on our walk! 

[RpR]

Sano's first Home Run is over 450 feet.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Small point--Urshela started at 3B both Friday and yesterday.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Jealous of the people attending the game tonight. It’s a perfect early spring evening. My dog refuses to get back to the house on our walk! 

Went to my first couple games since 2019 (I live in SD) and it was beautiful out! Was nice seeing the bombs yesterday!

[PseudoSABR]

Let's see how Sanchez does at catcher.  And isn't Urshela the better fielder? Maybe it's about getting Arraez reps in the field. 

[stringer bell]

So far, the guy I pegged to get the most at-bats as the DH has……….none and now Urshela, Jeffers and Kirilloff have each had a turn hitting without playing in the field. Rocco will do what Rocco will do. 

[wsnydes]

11 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Let's see how Sanchez does at catcher. 

Can we not and say we did?  It'll save the limestone behind home plate some bruises.

[shortround81]

Is that baby part of the MLBPA Union???

[Squirrel]

13 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Let's see how Sanchez does at catcher.  And isn't Urshela the better fielder? Maybe it's about getting Arraez reps in the field. 

Wasn’t he catcher already, for Ober?

[LVTwinsfan]

Looks like Sano got that bigger glove

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Let's see how Sanchez does at catcher.  And isn't Urshela the better fielder? Maybe it's about getting Arraez reps in the field. 

Probably.

[cHawk]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Probably.

It's hard to be worse defensively than Sanchez.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, shortround81 said:

Is that baby part of the MLBPA Union???

Nah, came with the trophies.

[LVTwinsfan]

1 minute ago, alex ψ said:

It's hard to be worse defensively than Sanchez.

He’s got a good arm

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, alex ψ said:

It's hard to be worse defensively than Sanchez.

Like nearly impossible hard.

[AlwaysinModeration]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Wasn’t he catcher already, for Ober?

Yes, and he got good reviews behind the plate, almost picked off a runner at first, made a terrific play at the plate, and hit a grand slam.

[shortround81]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

Nah, came with the trophies.

 

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, LVTwinsfan said:

He’s got a good arm

Which only matters if he actually catches the ball.

[stringer bell]

Two balls well played by Arraez. He made the play on the slow hopper and the peeled off when called off by the LF. 

[LVTwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Which only matters if he actually catches the ball.

He did ok yesterday

[Cap'n Piranha]

Just pulled Gameday up to see what I missed--11 pitches, 10 strikes from Bundy seems positive!

[RickOShea]

Is it me, or do the umpires look a year older this year?

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

He did ok yesterday

That's not much of an endorsement, but fair enough.  And I'm sure he'll get plenty of opportunity here.  His history doesn't suggest that he'll be much behind the plate.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Is it me, or do the umpires look a year older this year?

That's a keen eye you got there!

[Cap'n Piranha]

Danny calls for the possibility of Buck swiping third.

Ignoring the interview Buck did in ST wherein he said he doesn't see the point of stealing third, because he'll score on any hit to the outfield from second anyways.

(Leaving aside the questionable strategy from Buxton there, why would you look for a steal from a player who openly said he wouldn't steal?)

[Puckett34]

2 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Is it me, or do the umpires look a year older this year?

I dont know.  Joe West seemed to look the same for about 20 years

[Cap'n Piranha]

Just now, wsnydes said:

That's a keen eye you got there!

Yeah, but the other one is a mess.