Twins Mariners Trade proposal

[21bdp21]

The proposal was originally posted here at: https://sodomojo.com/2022/01/13/mariners-trade-proposal-luis-arraez/

 

The trade is below what do you all think?

MARINERS GET

INF LUIS ARRAEZ

 

TWINS GET

RHP JUSTIN DUNN

RHP LEVI STOUDT
RHP ISAIAH CAMPBELL

[baul0010]

31 minutes ago, 21bdp21 said:

The proposal was originally posted here at: https://sodomojo.com/2022/01/13/mariners-trade-proposal-luis-arraez/

 

The trade is below what do you all think?

MARINERS GET

INF LUIS ARRAEZ

 

TWINS GET

RHP JUSTIN DUNN

RHP LEVI STOUDT
RHP ISAIAH CAMPBELL

I'd do it.  I like Arraez, but until our pitching is situated, we aren't going anywhere.

[4twinsJA]

I would put Arraez high on the list of potential trade candidates. I would be in favor of a trade for a pitcher that can be in rotation next year and a couple of good prospects.

[twinsfansd]

That's a pretty good haul of present and future pieces for a guy that is crowded out of playing time for the Twins. I believe Arraez is a pretty valuable trade piece.

[TwinsDr2021]

To be honest don't know much about the Mariners prospects, but Campbell (24) doesn't seem to be in their top 40, Stoudt (24) is around 20, and Dunn seems to walk a bunch of guys is that considered a haul?

If I am trading for minor league pitchers, I am looking for more on the younger side a few years out, this seems it will just add to the 40 man issue coming real soon. With that said if the Twins think they could fix the walk issue with Dunn, and maybe package a few of the 24 year old plus minor league pitchers into something, then I am for trying.

[Major League Ready]

They already have a bunch of prospects that profile as back of the rotation or bullpen piece,  I would not move Arraez unless it's for a SP with higher upside or a legit SS prospect.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks 21bdp21, for presenting this trade. Arraez makes the most sense to trade but I wouldn't use him for these 3 lottery tickets and further add to our 40 man dilemma. We have a lot of pitching prospects, what we don't have is established pitching. I don't see SEA. as a trading partner because they'll want to hang unto their established pitching.

[21bdp21]

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They already have a bunch of prospects that profile as back of the rotation or bullpen piece,  I would not move Arraez unless it's for a SP with higher upside or a legit SS prospect.

Would anyone give that up?
I think Arraez will probably be the center of any trade this offseason which will upset me, but wont at the same time. 

[21bdp21]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks 21bdp21, for presenting this trade. Arraez makes the most sense to trade but I wouldn't use him for these 3 lottery tickets and further add to our 40 man dilemma. We have a lot of pitching prospects, what we don't have is established pitching. I don't see SEA. as a trading partner because they'll want to hang unto their established pitching.

Thanks happy to share;  because of my current location I get the SEA news and because I have been and will always be Twins fan whenever a Twins/Mariners article is published it pops up in my news feed. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't know that these guys are the lotto ticket kind of prospects some are indicating. Dunn was a 1st round pick in 2016 and has spent parts of three season at the majors, and not without some success.

The other two guys were 2nd and 3rd round picks just in 2019. They've basically only had one MiLB season so it's not like there's been much other than general ennui to scrub off any of their shine.

I mean maybe the Twins could do better, but that actually seems like quite a haul to me. Though I'm lower on Arraez than many are.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, 21bdp21 said:

Would anyone give that up?
I think Arraez will probably be the center of any trade this offseason which will upset me, but wont at the same time. 

A high upside pitcher?  IDK.  An established guy.  No.  A good prospect?  Probably.  The general theme is trying to trade for someone to help this year, like Montas.  I don't see that is probable even if the Twins were looking to invest big this year.  Their actions seem quite clear that 2022 is a reset year.  Not surprising given they have a boatload of pitchers ready and a t least two position players (Miranda / Martin) on the doorstep. 

The A's or anyone else trading an established SP is going to look for high upside prospects, not a player like Arraez.  IE. the Berrios trade.  Montas is a great comp although he would be for 2 full years.   I would be shocked and disappointed if they traded away to prospects the caliber of SWR and Martin.  For what, so we could win 78 games instead of 75? 

[Unwinder]

I think this writer hasn't looked too closely at our farm system and assumes it's as bereft of pitching as our MLB club. A quick glance at this same blog shows that the Mariners aren't even sure Dunn is starter material. Some more pitching prospects aren't going to sweeten the deal too much for me if we're not getting someone who's definitely going to work in the rotation.

[Dman]

Justin Dunn as the headliner doesn't get it done for me.  He looks most likely to be a reliever, his K rate is below average and he has control problems.  We have this guy in our system taking up a 40 man spot right now and his name is Chris Vallimont.  

Stoudt is 24 and while he has a really good changeup and OK fastball he is someone who would need to be protected right away and we already have a half dozen or more guys that project as good or better than him so he would likely be lost anyway.

Campbell is a complete unknown who also would need to be protected.  This trade just doesn't make sense for the Twins at all.

If they are not going to give us a legit MLB starter then at a minimum and I mean minimum they would need to start a package built around Connor Phillips.  He is 20 and was taken in the 2020 draft.  He has a legit fastball and decent K numbers.  He has solid potential and wouldn't need to be added for another three years.

If the Twins can't get someone to give up a decent starter then they should try to go younger and keep the pipeline producing for the future by going with high upside.

[21bdp21]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

A high upside pitcher?  IDK.  An established guy.  No.  A good prospect?  Probably.  The general theme is trying to trade for someone to help this year, like Montas.  I don't see that is probable even if the Twins were looking to invest big this year.  Their actions seem quite clear that 2022 is a reset year.  Not surprising given they have a boatload of pitchers ready and a t least two position players (Miranda / Martin) on the doorstep. 

The A's or anyone else trading an established SP is going to look for high upside prospects, not a player like Arraez.  IE. the Berrios trade.  Montas is a great comp although he would be for 2 full years.   I would be shocked and disappointed if they traded away to prospects the caliber of SWR and Martin.  For what, so we could win 78 games instead of 75? 

If a team thinks Martin is worth a starter 3+pitcher with several years of cotrole I could see it being worth it. It looks like Martin won't stick at SS, we have Buxton at CF and others to back up. Martin also doesn't have the power for a corner outfielder. We don't need him at 2nd we have Polanco.  He was a good pick up if he could be SS, but if not....

 

[old nurse]

Trading for lottery ticket pitchers. Gil and Ynoa out as lottery tickets, what has come back?  

[TopGunn#22]

I love it when guys on TD propose trades.  It ALWAYS makes for good discussion, so Thank You 21bdl21 !  I agree with the comments that we don't need MORE prospects, especially pitchers.  We have something like 16 legit pitching prospects so acquiring more just leads to 40-man roster headaches.  If I'm giving up Arraez, I'm looking for a legit Big League pitcher who can help the Twins in 2022 and beyond with an extension. With a value (MLB Trade Values) of 27.9 Arraez is the Twins BEST trade piece NOT named Polanco.  Arraez has defensive versatility and elite bat to ball skills.  He should be able to bring back a very good pitcher...or TWO.  Bassitt and Manaea from Oakland have a combined value of 35.5.  (Bassitt 17.0 and Manaea 18.5).  The Twins should be talking to Oakland about a deal centered around Arraez and looking to bring back Montas (39.6 value) or BOTH Bassitt and Manaea.  The Twins should NOT be punting 2022.  They should be building to compete in 2022 and beyond. 

[jorgenswest]

The Mariners might be a landing point for Arraez but the Twins don’t need quality rather than quantity. They need to add one or two of their prospects and get back the Mariners top pitching prospect in Kirby.

Would a trade straight up for J.P. Crawford fit? The Mariners best prospect is a SS but he is a year away. Crawford and Arraez have the same projected steamer WAR. They have similar control though currently Arraez has an extra year. That may change with the new deal. They have similar BTV. Crawford is certainly a better fit for the Twins needs at SS.

[cHawk]

Stoudt is Top 10 and Campbell is Top 20 in the M’s system. Both are pitchers, (which is what the team needs) and both are set to arrive in the majors in 2022-2023. I’ve never heard of either of them so I can’t say much in detail about either of them.

Dunn? He looks like a reclamation project. Not interested.

I would probably do it but keep in mind both parties need to agree.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need experienced starting pitchers. If a trade brought a MLB ready prospect such as Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, or Max Meyer - yes, ok. However, Seattle does not have MLB ready prospects. Their top two, both excellent, are not quite ready. The Twins already have an abundance of MLB ready prospects and should only add younger pitching if they are consensus top ten talents. So Seattle doesn't work. The teams that have some trade opportunities are Miami, Oakland, and a few others.

[sthpstm]

Would you trade Arraez for Cole Sands, Randy Dobnak, and Chris Vallimont? That seems like pretty similar return if it was reversed. No way I would trade Arraez for that.

[dxpavelka]

I admittedly know little about these prospects.  If one of  them is ready to occupy a rotation spot before July it's a good deal.  If not, not so much.

 

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I admittedly know little about these prospects.  If one of  them is ready to occupy a rotation spot before July it's a good deal.  If not, not so much.

 

Good thing the Padres did not think that way when they traded for Tatis.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

And speaking of sliding, he did a lot of that too...like into the plate when he was stealing home. 7 TIMES in one season...sheesh!

 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Good thing the Padres did not think that way when they traded for Tatis.

Yes, I said I now little of these prospects.  I do, however, know that Fernando Tatis is NOT on that list.

[RonCoomersOPS]

I'm not opposed to trading Arraez, but I would aim much higher than this package for him. From the Mariners, I'd be looking for Emerson Hancock, Brandon Williamson, and Edwin Arroyo.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

 

Yes, I said I now little of these prospects.  I do, however, know that Fernando Tatis is NOT on that list.

That's not the point.  Putting so much emphasis on the immediacy of the return is very bad asset management.  Tatis did not contribute for 3 years after being acquired.  Would they have been better off had they traded for an SS that would have been with the club in a year?  In this case, a legit #2 in two years would be a much better return than a #4 at the start of next season.  

[dxpavelka]

This team needs pitching NOW.  Giving away assets for something that MIGHT happen in 2 years is not advisable.

 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

This team needs pitching NOW.  Giving away assets for something that MIGHT happen in 2 years is not advisable.

 

What they need depends on how we define the objective.  If the objective is getting to 500, trading for a well-established SP MIGHT achieve the objective.  If the objective is to build a contender, they don't need to trade for anything NOW.  If the objective is to be a little better the next two years, trading for someone like Montas will likely achieve that objective.  If the objective is to build sustained success, trading long-term assets right now for short-term assets is a horrible strategy.  

As Dman pointed out, we have a bunch of prospects that are better than the tri proposed here.  Giving up a valuable asset would be bad enough.  We would also prolong our misery by taking away developmental time from the prospects with higher upside.  

[dxpavelka]

We've always got a bunch of prospects.  What we need are players.  I saw us win two World Series before my thirtieth birthday.  I'm approaching my sixtieth.  Time to get (and keep) PLAYERS.