A conversation Baldelli and the FO need to have, and I want to mediate.

[DocBauer]

This is very simple and yet complicated.

Work with me here. I'M the mediator here, but YOU can be too!

Q1] Gordon is a wonderful athlete with potential still. You've thought enough of his potential...despite illness and injury...to protect him the past couple of years. Athletically, there is no question he still needs to gain weight and muscle to truly advance his career, whether it be offensively OR even bringing strength to his throws as well. He has played a ton of SS in milb AND in ST. But WHY does he NOT play SS at the ML level to see if he can be a viable utility option there? You're kind of talking out both sides of your mouth here while asking him to adapt to CF at the ML level. In a lost season and looking forward to 2022, what's going on here?

Q2] Jake Cave seems like a great guy and a good athlete and a "gamer". And I fully get 2020 was just a weird season. And I also understand Cave has been hurt virtually since the season began. And it sucks for him. But unless you really believe he's a perfect fit for 2022 when the roster SCREAMS for a RH OF bat, why is he getting time at this point? Is he getting time as a reward at this point? While Refsnyder may not be the perfect 4th OF for 2022, a similar player is what is needed. But with Buxton coming back soon, will you actually send Cave down and let Refsnyder continue to play and prove his worth? 

Q3] Any inquiry about Miranda is, I understand, complicated because you are so excited he's actually becoming what you hoped he would be. And I get being just a little more patient because you want confidence, experience, and understand the little things. But some of those things can only be learned at the ML level. And I understand there could be a roster crunch in 2022, but what is your thoughts about Miranda going forward? You simply CAN'T dismiss the most exciting player prospect you've had for years.  What are your thoughts/plans?

My TD compatriots will have further questions, but position player wise, these are my initial questions that need to be addressed SOON. Because with a month left in 2021, these might be some of the easiest questions to address.

Other questions are up to the audience. 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Gordon and his non-usage at shortstop, under all conditions, is a head scratcher. Clearly, the Twins do not feel Nick belongs at SS.

Cave? Meh, but I want to know if Refsnyder is viable too.

Miranda is helping St. Paul finish strong and allowing Arreaz to play some 3B, I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand Cave playing at this point. 

[Rosterman]

At some point you pull the plug on anyone Not IN THE PLANS FOR 2022. And quit playing guys OUT OF POSITION. These are not pick-up games. If you need a third baseman, you got one in the minors.

 

It is NOT the Twins job, at this point, to further the career of players looking for work other than in Minnesota for 2022. That is what the season, and the opportunities the Twins have already given several players.

 

Most all prospects fail at some point when first brought up to the major leagues. Then they go back for some re-tooling (or never come back). You have the opportunity to have several promising starters you know will be considered for the club to pitch now, with up to six opportunities to do so. A couple could even be shuffled back and forth in the next three weeks. And, remember, you get to add two players for the final few weeks. You are going to add them to the roster, why not an early spring training, then sit down and talk over winter plans on what they have to work on to pitch against major league hitters. They will have a good outlook on what isn't working quite right, yet.

 

And, for heaven's sake, talk up the bright young prospects and feature them in interviews and segments and such. Make the fans look forward to watching players grow (not go) and that the Twins do have wonderful guys coming up.

 

 

[Rosterman]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand Cave playing at this point. 

Are they really going to go to arbitration with Cave? I believe you could bring him back as a minors free agent with an invite. They did enough of that last spring.

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Q2] Jake Cave seems like a great guy and a good athlete and a "gamer".

I don't personally care a lot for Cave's game, particularly his occasional decision-making on defense where he's prone to gambling and losing. However, I believe the FO draws a clear line between what are acceptable CF tools and what are not. Range is foremost, with arm and general steadiness in the mix too.  Cave makes the cut apparently, where a guy like Refsnyder does not and Kepler no longer does (and thus are for emergency CF use only).  In terms of the raw tools, I have to kind of side with them. If Cave is gone, there is literally no one to back up Buxton, only emergency-caliber center fielders.

Defensive stats are where one should be most leery of Small Sample Size, but I looked at Range Factor per 9 innings (PO+A/IP/9) for 2021, where everyone has only about 20-30 games worth to go by, and Buxton not surprisingly leads his teammates with 2.86. Nick Gordon is, for me at least, a surprising second at 2.66, which I'll chalk up to very good range and an affinity for not screwing up. A close third is Cave at 2.63. Kepler's at 2.52, Refsnyder is 2.39, Celestino a disappointing 2.31.

Again, these sparse data do not deserve the two digits of "precision" shown after the decimal point - maybe barely even half of one digit. But I'll allow myself the confirmation bias to say that the data here don't support the notion that someone else is clearly above Cave in terms of actually making the plays as the backup.

The mystery of why Cave still has a roster spot is that internal evaluation says he's a CF while all but Buxton really are not.  I don't think a mediator is going to talk them out of this.  Conversely, the moment Cave is perceived to have lost a step, he'll be gone, since unless his bat bounces back to 2019 levels, he's not even an asset in a corner position.

[Vanimal46]

Unless you’ve lost faith in the front office’s ability to assess talent, they’ve made it crystal clear that Nick Gordon is not a major league SS. It’s time for this narrative to die. At this point we’re advocating for Nick Punto to play every day again. I understand playing him in a down season but I have no expectation he will be anything more than filler in a down season. 

Cave is a fine 4th OF. Nothing more or less. Should he be playing for the 2021 Twins? Not in an ideal world. Kirilloff’s injured for the season. Larnach is struggling and in AAA. We’re advocating for Refsnyder? An older player than Cave? I don’t agree when he’s been ice cold since returning from injury. 

Sure, Miranda is playing really well. He can be one of the 2 call ups in September to see if his progression is for real. 

[beckmt]

At lot we do not know.  First what is the new CBA, but you may have to make decisions before that.  If you are sure there is going to be a floor, you have to resign Buxton, because otherwise you are not getting there. 

Keeping Gordon around is a possibility to backup center along with other positions.  3 players who have no future here are Cave, Simmons and the Turtle.  Several of the lower rung pitchers can be jettisoned also.  Along with about 3 players on the 60 day DL list.  

FO has to do a better job on talent evaluation.  Under Terry Ryan you rarely saw a released player have a big impact (David Ortiz, but not many others).  This FO has several relief pitchers and maybe 1 starter (Gil) who could carve out decent major league careers, while the Twins bullpen suffers.  

Donaldson is a issue, but I would trade him (as a sunk cost) for whatever I could get (salary relief and lottery tickets are most likely) to open up positions for the next wave.  Most of them will not be here until next spring or summer, but we need to move forward.  This also includes buying 1 front line starter to stabilize the rotation and also if a floor to help get us there. 

Baldelli needs to play the younger players, and if he will not (except when we are facing playoff contenders), we need to release those players so he cannot use them.  

Next year could be bad, but it is the only way forward to find out what we have.

[rv78]

Gordon got thrown into the CF position due to necessity. Buxton, Kepler, Refsnyder and Cave were hurt. Celestino failed to produce. Even tho this happened due to emergency I liked him out there better than the last 4 listed. Is the Major leagues a place to be learning a new position? No, but sometimes stuff happens. I'd much rather see his bat in the lineup verses Cave. Sorry, I just have no love for a player that only hits .179 no matter how good his defense is, and I don't think it is any better than Gordons who will only get better the more he plays CF. 

Miranda has 4 things going against him at this point. 1.Donaldson, 2.Arraez, 3.The Saints are good and playing for a title, 4.The FO. It's all about service time. If the treatment of Buxton taught us anything is that they are willing to throw players under the bus for money. You can argue, why start the clock in a lost season? Why not bring up Miranda and see what you have? What about the young pitchers? Where's the likes of Balazovic, Winder, Duran, lets look at Ryan and Woods-Richardson. Are we still playing for this year or does the future start now?

In another article I listed 19 players on the 40 man roster that the Twins could release due to being, 1.Easily replaceable. 2.Just not that good. 3.Veterans that don't fit even for a short rebuild of the roster. When half the team is expendable and you have talent waiting in the wings it only makes sense to see what they can do when the current team isn't very good. Other-wise they can have those prospects become the next Akil Baddoo and play elsewhere while they sit on their hands and wallets in wonder and bewilderment.

[TopGunn#22]

Great points all.  A lot of Recs from me.  Yup, guys like Cave do nothing for me or for the Twins for that matter.  If you're a .179 hitter, I don't care if you're Willie Mays with the glove in CF, you just aren't a major leaguer.  Now should be all about learning what you have with young talent and how they might fit next year or in 2-3 years.  Getting the Jake Cave's of the world AB's does not move the needle one bit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand Cave playing at this point. 

While I can wiggle my way through the other questions without hurting my brain (eg. "don't play Gordon at SS if you're already comfortable in your understanding of his ability" or "Miranda will cause 40-man ugliness if added here and now and you have other plans"), this one breaks my head.

Cave is a bad-hitting, LEFT-HANDED, tweener defender. He has no place on this team going forward.

[mikelink45]

My question has to do with their "pitcher prowess".  Did you really see Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe as MLB starters?  Evaluation is your reputation - why the faith in waiver wire discards for the BP?  Did you just like the letter G when you brought in Gant, Garcia, and Garza?  They are not the answer. 

[beckmt]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My question has to do with their "pitcher prowess".  Did you really see Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe as MLB starters?  Evaluation is your reputation - why the faith in waiver wire discards for the BP?  Did you just like the letter G when you brought in Gant, Garcia, and Garza?  They are not the answer. 

Sometimes with players like Gant, Garcia, and Garza you need a different voice.  Gant has major league stuff and possibly the other ones also.  I don't mind that.  However Smeltzer and Thorpe and no more than long relievers at best, so let's move forward from them. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

At lot we do not know.  First what is the new CBA, but you may have to make decisions before that.  If you are sure there is going to be a floor, you have to resign Buxton, because otherwise you are not getting there. 

Keeping Gordon around is a possibility to backup center along with other positions.  3 players who have no future here are Cave, Simmons and the Turtle.  Several of the lower rung pitchers can be jettisoned also.  Along with about 3 players on the 60 day DL list.  

FO has to do a better job on talent evaluation.  Under Terry Ryan you rarely saw a released player have a big impact (David Ortiz, but not many others).  This FO has several relief pitchers and maybe 1 starter (Gil) who could carve out decent major league careers, while the Twins bullpen suffers.  

Donaldson is a issue, but I would trade him (as a sunk cost) for whatever I could get (salary relief and lottery tickets are most likely) to open up positions for the next wave.  Most of them will not be here until next spring or summer, but we need to move forward.  This also includes buying 1 front line starter to stabilize the rotation and also if a floor to help get us there. 

Baldelli needs to play the younger players, and if he will not (except when we are facing playoff contenders), we need to release those players so he cannot use them.  

Next year could be bad, but it is the only way forward to find out what we have.

There is no younger OF to play right now.....it is either Cave or Refsnyder. I'm not sure what you want him to do differently.

[mikelink45]

I needed a second take - did you really think Cave was better than LaMonte Wade?  The Giants don't.   He and Akil Baddoo might look good on the Twins team right now.  

[beckmt]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is no younger OF to play right now.....it is either Cave or Refsnyder. I'm not sure what you want him to do differently.

That might be this year, I mean going forward next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, beckmt said:

That might be this year, I mean going forward next year. 

Ah. Got it.

I predict Buxton, Kepler, and Larnach on the starting roster. Maybe Celestino. Maybe (a stretch for sure) Martin (who I think is the LF by June unless Buxton is gone, in which case he's the CF). That leaves room for one veteran back up if they want, of which lots will be available in the off season if they want one. 

[Dman]

6 hours ago, rv78 said:

 

Miranda has 4 things going against him at this point. 1.Donaldson, 2.Arraez, 3.The Saints are good and playing for a title, 4.The FO. It's all about service time. If the treatment of Buxton taught us anything is that they are willing to throw players under the bus for money. You can argue, why start the clock in a lost season? Why not bring up Miranda and see what you have? What about the young pitchers? Where's the likes of Balazovic, Winder, Duran, lets look at Ryan and Woods-Richardson. Are we still playing for this year or does the future start now?

 

I am inclined to agree with you here but will know with greater certainty once September 1st arrives and claimed MiLB players will no longer be able to be rostered for the playoffs.. I think your 1, 2 and 3 points are all valid but I also think service time might be the larger part of this mainly because no one knows what changes there will be in the new CBA.  They could be risking more than they know starting Miranda's clock this season.  So I am thinking they will wait to add him.  It also could be that they are waiting for rosters to expand and an easier path for players on the fringe of the 40 man to not get claimed as they try to pass them through waivers.  Hard to say.  They can still sell points 1, 2, and 3 though so they have an easy out if needed.  Personally I don't think they will bring Miranda up this year.

[Dodecahedron]

We have come to some very big conclusions on Gordon, which in my opinion are based on conjecture.  The idea that the Twins are afraid to play Gordon in the middle infield is incredibly unlikely.  If Baldelli has shown us anything, he has shown us that he is willing to try anything.

The Twins did not think Gordon was ready at the start of the year, so they signed a rental.  By necessity, Gordon ended up in the majors anyway, but his natural position was then blocked, so he played elsewhere.

It's likely he ends up playing his natural position next year.  Whether that's good or not, who knows.  I'm betting defense is not the problem when it comes to Gordon.

[Dman]

I have mentioned this before but I just don't see Cave as a great fit for the Twins moving forward.  He will have no options left so he losses roster flexibility.  He is going to get more expensive,  He hasn't proven he is a  much better option moving forward than Celestino, Contreras or even Whitefield IMO.  It is also possible Martin could take that spot at some point next year or the year after. I was a big defender of Cave while he was here but he has never really taken off and even if he does take off it feels like the ceiling is pretty limited anyway.  I just don't know why the Twins would hang onto him next year,  It feels like past time to move on.

I don't know what to think about Gordon but can't see why they can't at least placate a few of us wanna be GM's who would like to see him play shortstop for a week and see for ourselves how good or bad he really is there. He has a fair bit of time there he can't be "that bad" but what do I know?  Anyway it seems almost everyone would like to see him out there so not sure why the FO can't send him out there in a lost season.  Show us you know best FO and let him make error after error or maybe you find out he can at least backup the position.  Whatever the case I don't think they are helping themselves not giving him a chance to prove himself.

[sjunisu]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ah. Got it.

I predict Buxton, Kepler, and Larnach on the starting roster. Maybe Celestino. Maybe (a stretch for sure) Martin (who I think is the LF by June unless Buxton is gone, in which case he's the CF). That leaves room for one veteran back up if they want, of which lots will be available in the off season if they want one. 

Honestly I hope Kepler is no more than the 4th OF on next yrs team.  I think he has now had plenty of time to show us the player he is - a slightly above average fielding, poor hitting left-handed corner outfielder who can play CF in a real pinch.  That is the definition of a 4th OF in my book.

I would rather see AK in the OF (rather than 1B) and possibly move Donaldson over to 1st and let Miranda come up to 3rd.  That would allow Kepler to be the 4th OF. 

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, beckmt said:

That might be this year, I mean going forward next year. 

Celestino was rushed, but he is the next CF and then a few more are behind him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sjunisu said:

Honestly I hope Kepler is no more than the 4th OF on next yrs team.  I think he has now had plenty of time to show us the player he is - a slightly above average fielding, poor hitting left-handed corner outfielder who can play CF in a real pinch.  That is the definition of a 4th OF in my book.

I would rather see AK in the OF (rather than 1B) and possibly move Donaldson over to 1st and let Miranda come up to 3rd.  That would allow Kepler to be the 4th OF. 

While Kepler hasn’t turned out to be the player we all hoped he would be, he has a 96 wRC+ this season and extrapolating his PAs to 600 (ie. a full-ish season), he’d have a 2.0 fWAR. That’s an entirely serviceable, if underwhelming, starter.

The team would lose A LOT by moving Donaldson off third base. Not only is he the best available defender at the position, moving his bat from third to first reduces quite a bit of its relative potency. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know what to think about Gordon but can't see why they can't at least placate a few of us wanna be GM's who would like to see him play shortstop for a week and see for ourselves how good or bad he really is there. He has a fair bit of time there he can't be "that bad" but what do I know?  Anyway it seems almost everyone would like to see him out there so not sure why the FO can't send him out there in a lost season.  Show us you know best FO and let him make error after error or maybe you find out he can at least backup the position.  Whatever the case I don't think they are helping themselves not giving him a chance to prove himself.

I think they have made up their mind, but I'm on board with this. This is a fair ask.

If I recall, we had the same conversation about Polanco at short a few years ago (2017 or 2019 season? cant remember) and Polanco did well enough for that one season.

 

[Greglw3]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

I don't personally care a lot for Cave's game, particularly his occasional decision-making on defense where he's prone to gambling and losing. However, I believe the FO draws a clear line between what are acceptable CF tools and what are not. Range is foremost, with arm and general steadiness in the mix too.  Cave makes the cut apparently, where a guy like Refsnyder does not and Kepler no longer does (and thus are for emergency CF use only).  In terms of the raw tools, I have to kind of side with them. If Cave is gone, there is literally no one to back up Buxton, only emergency-caliber center fielders.

Defensive stats are where one should be most leery of Small Sample Size, but I looked at Range Factor per 9 innings (PO+A/IP/9) for 2021, where everyone has only about 20-30 games worth to go by, and Buxton not surprisingly leads his teammates with 2.86. Nick Gordon is, for me at least, a surprising second at 2.66, which I'll chalk up to very good range and an affinity for not screwing up. A close third is Cave at 2.63. Kepler's at 2.52, Refsnyder is 2.39, Celestino a disappointing 2.31.

Again, these sparse data do not deserve the two digits of "precision" shown after the decimal point - maybe barely even half of one digit. But I'll allow myself the confirmation bias to say that the data here don't support the notion that someone else is clearly above Cave in terms of actually making the plays as the backup.

The mystery of why Cave still has a roster spot is that internal evaluation says he's a CF while all but Buxton really are not.  I don't think a mediator is going to talk them out of this.  Conversely, the moment Cave is perceived to have lost a step, he'll be gone, since unless his bat bounces back to 2019 levels, he's not even an asset in a corner position.

The Twins have Jimmy Kerrigan and Mark Contreras who both have played cf. Kerrigan with 17 HR and Contreras had inched over a .900 OPS recently.

Go with them over Cave.

And Larnach, even with his brutal slump, has outhit Cave this year and it’s likely he has a pretty high ceiling (when thinking about LF). If Kerrigan or Contreras aren’t better then Cave in cf (I doubt it), then the Twins should sign a true backup to Buxton. I’d rather have a Billy Hamilton type #2 on the cf depth chart than Cave, someone of his ilk that plays superb defense. But I think Kerrigan and Contreras have earned a shot.

[Greglw3]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think they have made up their mind, but I'm on board with this. This is a fair ask.

If I recall, we had the same conversation about Polanco at short a few years ago (2017 or 2019 season? cant remember) and Polanco did well enough for that one season.

 

I have to reiterate that I think the Twins would be making a big mistake to let a guy with Gordon’s tools to get away. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

20 hours ago, DocBauer said:

My TD compatriots will have further questions, but position player wise, these are my initial questions that need to be addressed SOON. Because with a month left in 2021, these might be some of the easiest questions to address.

Good post, Doc. I read it as some criticisms you wanted to share, without making it too personal. 

 

20 hours ago, DocBauer said:

   ... with a month left in 2021, these might be some of the easiest questions to address.

Yeah, for the front office, the levels will only get harder the further they progress

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While I can wiggle my way through the other questions without hurting my brain (eg. "don't play Gordon at SS if you're already comfortable in your understanding of his ability" or "Miranda will cause 40-man ugliness if added here and now and you have other plans"), this one breaks my head.

Cave is a bad-hitting, LEFT-HANDED, tweener defender. He has no place on this team going forward.

100% agree.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

26 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I have to reiterate that I think the Twins would be making a big mistake to let a guy with Gordon’s tools to get away. 

I wanted them to trade Gordon back when he had some good value, but now that we’re here, I think he can be a good piece who comes off the bench to pinch run or play in the field in addition to the occasional starting lineup when the pitching matchup might work.

I really think a full season of being a full time starter would be too much to ask. And lots of people are suspicious of his glove at short, actually. But then again, next year would be the time to try playing him a full year and if he doesn’t work out, not much lost.

[RpR]

45 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

If I recall, we had the same conversation about Polanco at short a few years ago (2017 or 2019 season? cant remember) and Polanco did well enough for that one season.

 

IF you mean Polanco at short-stop, he stunk.