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The Time to Trade José Berríos is Now


1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

As @birdwatcherwould say, trade from surplus, not a deficit. The Twins certainly do not have a surplus of starting pitchers. His value in 2022 won’t be matched by a prospect. Unless we’re punting 2022 as well, we need to keep Berrios. 

That's what people said about Tampa trading Snell and they also lost Morton to free agency.  The key IMO is establishing a couple prospects this year.  Dobnak could be one of them but I am thinking more of Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Winder / Sands and Ober.  I would dump Albers right now and move Winder to AAA with Canterino filing his spot a AA and Valimont filing Canterino's spot a A+.  If we establish two prearb players, we can then use the funds saved by the departure of Berrios / Pineda and Haap to sign a front of the rotation FA.  

It would be really great if Gordon's performance continues.  That would allow us to replace Simmons and add another $10M available for free agents.   Gordon's sample size is small but wow would that be a bonus if he lived up to something close to expectations given his draft position.

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The Twins should absolutely market Berrios. No brainer. He's not going to sign here, and he's not really all that good anyway. More name and hope than production. 

As for Buxton, make him the best offer you can. If he accepts, hope he stays healthy. If he declines, market him as well.

Sell everybody on a one year deal, listen to offers for Kepler.

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The Twins don't have anyone as good as or better than Berrios to take his place.  The return for a Berrios trade would either be a worse pitcher or some prospects (aka, lottery tickets) who would not be pitching for the Twins for several years.  In the meantime, the pitching would struggle.  And with no bullpen to help?  Hm.  Doesn't sound smart.

Berrios does not have to be an "ace" -- or, in other words, he does not have to be one of the few star pitchers in the league -- for the Twins to keep him.  #2/#3 pitchers are foundational and necessary for success.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

 

It would be really great if Gordon's performance continues.  That would allow us to replace Simmons and add another $10M available for free agents.   Gordon's sample size is small but wow would that be a bonus if he lived up to something close to expectations given his draft position.

Does anyone think Gordon is a shortstop? We weren’t satisfied with Polanco who has an offensive resumé, Gordon profiles as a light-hitting stretched middle infielder. 

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How much more will the return be now vs 1 year from now? That is the issue with both Berrios and Buxton IMO. If you trade either of them you are waving the white flag on 2022 IMO. I would keep both and if we are not firmly in the race, trade them next July.

If we are in the race, I would push hard for a Berrios extension. In Buxton's case there's no good answer but I would just let him leave in FA.

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Also, realistically how many guys can you really trade at the trade deadline? Happ, Pineda, Simmons, Cruz, Robles, Duffy, and Colome are all free agents and have at least some trade value. Are you really going trade all 7 of them AND Berrios, Maeda, Sano and/or Buxton? Has a team ever traded 8 or 9 guys at the trade deadline? I recall a White Sox fire sale in the 90's when they were like 5 games out, but I don't think it got that high.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

That's what people said about Tampa trading Snell and they also lost Morton to free agency.  The key IMO is establishing a couple prospects this year.  Dobnak could be one of them but I am thinking more of Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Winder / Sands and Ober.  I would dump Albers right now and move Winder to AAA with Canterino filing his spot a AA and Valimont filing Canterino's spot a A+.  If we establish two prearb players, we can then use the funds saved by the departure of Berrios / Pineda and Haap to sign a front of the rotation FA.  

It would be really great if Gordon's performance continues.  That would allow us to replace Simmons and add another $10M available for free agents.   Gordon's sample size is small but wow would that be a bonus if he lived up to something close to expectations given his draft position.

In what I'm sure some will view as a sign of the apocalypse, I agree 100% with this post by MLR....

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

That's what people said about Tampa trading Snell and they also lost Morton to free agency.  The key IMO is establishing a couple prospects this year.  Dobnak could be one of them but I am thinking more of Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Winder / Sands and Ober.  I would dump Albers right now and move Winder to AAA with Canterino filing his spot a AA and Valimont filing Canterino's spot a A+.  If we establish two prearb players, we can then use the funds saved by the departure of Berrios / Pineda and Haap to sign a front of the rotation FA.  

It would be really great if Gordon's performance continues.  That would allow us to replace Simmons and add another $10M available for free agents.   Gordon's sample size is small but wow would that be a bonus if he lived up to something close to expectations given his draft position.

None of the prospects will produce a 3 WAR season in 2022. We’d be lucky to get half the value. And free agent starting pitchers that could surpass 3 WAR are unrealistic or nearing 40 years old. Again, we don’t have a surplus of starting pitching, or pitching in general. 

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Just now, Vanimal46 said:

None of the prospects will produce a 3 WAR season in 2022. We’d be lucky to get half the value. And free agent starting pitchers that could surpass 3 WAR are unrealistic or nearing 40 years old. Again, we don’t have a surplus of starting pitching, or pitching in general. 

They'll have even less if Berrios won't sign an extension. If he won't, they should deal him. 100%.

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3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sure. How about in July 2022 if we are out of contention again? 

That's a reasonable stance. It all depends on IF they can get young SPs up here that produce this year. Otherwise, I see no path to serious contention next year given the SP and RP they have right now.

OTOH, he's worth more with 1.5 years of control than .5 years, I'd think.......

I'd want the best SS or SP prospect they can get, plus a middling prospect, plus a flier pitcher prospect.

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8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's a reasonable stance. It all depends on IF they can get young SPs up here that produce this year. Otherwise, I see no path to serious contention next year given the SP and RP they have right now.

OTOH, he's worth more with 1.5 years of control than .5 years, I'd think.......

I'd want the best SS or SP prospect they can get, plus a middling prospect, plus a flier pitcher prospect.


How much more is he worth at 1.5 years plus a replacement level pitcher vs. .5 years and Berrios giving the Twins 1.5ish WAR vs. qualifying offer and 3 WAR in 2022? I don’t know that answer.
 

My guess is the return package isn’t significantly better now vs. a year from now. 
 

By the way, weren’t you the same guy saying they should try to keep the only pitcher they’ve developed in the last 15 years? 😉

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The Payroll inequity problem needs to be fixed....now! [inequity....yes, you can use that word here, because this is one product that needs all the franchises viable].

Trading Berrios because we are having a couple of bad months [on the back of 2019 and 2020]........is why I will stop following this crap. 

So the plan is to throw everything away and gamble on another new set of prospects. Count me out..... 

Have fun watching the Yankees fellas..........

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I said this a while back and got "scolded".  I would trade him now mostly to get something in return while we can.  Secondly he most likely wants a team where he has a chance to go deep into the playoffs and that is why he is not signing any type of extension.  I really like him and want the best for him and after 30 years w/o a WS appearance combined with every thing else, this team will never be the contender we were asked to believe in when they so badly needed Target field to be contenders.  How many years are they into Target now and how many playoff games have they won? Sorry but I am never going to be a glass half full fan it is to disappointing!

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40 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Also, realistically how many guys can you really trade at the trade deadline? ...

Has a team ever traded 8 or 9 guys at the trade deadline?

Not sure, but the Twins traded 6 full time guys/contributors at the deadline back in 2018.

and I bet if you tried, you could find a whole lot of posts praising those trades for what their payoff would be three years later in 2021 ..

The one thing that is different is that Berrios is by far a better trade chip than any of those guys in 2018 were.

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37 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Also, realistically how many guys can you really trade at the trade deadline? Happ, Pineda, Simmons, Cruz, Robles, Duffy, and Colome are all free agents and have at least some trade value. Are you really going trade all 7 of them AND Berrios, Maeda, Sano and/or Buxton? Has a team ever traded 8 or 9 guys at the trade deadline? I recall a White Sox fire sale in the 90's when they were like 5 games out, but I don't think it got that high.

Duffey's not a pending free agent, and probably isn't particularly valuable at the moment. (Happ is a pending FA but I'd guess he is similarly low-value -- no need to trade him unless we want to free up the roster spot.)

The 2018 Twins traded 6 guys around the deadline. Plus they had a few more projected trade candidates like Morrison and Ervin Santana who were derailed by poor performance and health. And performance and/or health could still knock a few guys off your list by the deadline too.

 

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29 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:


How much more is he worth at 1.5 years plus a replacement level pitcher vs. .5 years and Berrios giving the Twins 1.5ish WAR vs. qualifying offer and 3 WAR in 2022? I don’t know that answer.
 

My guess is the return package isn’t significantly better now vs. a year from now. 
 

By the way, weren’t you the same guy saying they should try to keep the only pitcher they’ve developed in the last 15 years? 😉

I said I was conflicted, and if he says he won't sign, you don't have a choice (either this year or next) to deal him.

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56 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

How much more will the return be now vs 1 year from now? That is the issue with both Berrios and Buxton IMO. If you trade either of them you are waving the white flag on 2022 IMO. I would keep both and if we are not firmly in the race, trade them next July.

If we are in the race, I would push hard for a Berrios extension. In Buxton's case there's no good answer but I would just let him leave in FA.

I'd say the difference in returns (between a 2 month rental, or 1.5 season acquisition) could be significant. Especially for players who may not dominate in a short sample, but whose value may be more evident over time like Berrios. (And while Buxton certainly looked dominant over a short sample this year, his permanent health concern might push his value closer to the Berrios model.)

Plus, you can only extend a qualifying offer to a player if they play the full season for you. So a team trading for Buxton or Berrios at the 2022 deadline couldn't use the QO as leverage to negotiate a new contract, and they wouldn't get any draft pick compensation if they failed to re-sign them. That could change a bit in the upcoming CBA but it's still a factor in the equation right now.

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The question I have is whether a FO can survive making such a white-flag trade, admitting failure on not just their 2021 chances but for the entire window of contention for this core. My thought is, "no". They might convince ownership that trading Berrios is the right thing; the corollary is a change at the top of the FO too. Thus I can't see it happening.

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5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The question I have is whether a FO can survive making such a white-flag trade, admitting failure on not just their 2021 chances but for the entire window of contention for this core. My thought is, "no". They might convince ownership that trading Berrios is the right thing; the corollary is a change at the top of the FO too. Thus I can't see it happening.

This isn't really "their" core though, so I think they could survive it. But, it surely is a consideration.

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This is one of those situations where you see who is willing to overpay at the deadline.

If you get an amazing deal, you say so long to Jose and rebuild in '22. If not blown away, hang on tight and try one more time for an extension in the off-season. Don't trade him just to trade him.

I could see a team like the Cardinals pulling the trigger with 2 of their top guys (#30/31). 

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1 hour ago, howeda7 said:

Also, realistically how many guys can you really trade at the trade deadline? Happ, Pineda, Simmons, Cruz, Robles, Duffy, and Colome are all free agents and have at least some trade value. Are you really going trade all 7 of them AND Berrios, Maeda, Sano and/or Buxton? Has a team ever traded 8 or 9 guys at the trade deadline? I recall a White Sox fire sale in the 90's when they were like 5 games out, but I don't think it got that high.

This is a good point.  Generally 4 to 5 players max but your players have to be better matches or better deals than players from the other 10 to 15 teams likely out of it.  Also if the players you want to trade are not playing well why would a contender want them and if the return is so low why trade them anyway?

 So you have a point there might not be a market for Happ or Simons or Colome etc unless they start performing better.  Also if you "are" thinking about trading Berrios or Buxton and can't get a return you can live with then maybe no deal there either and you keep them another year for the trade deadline or for draft pick compensation. The Twins would want an overpay to move either player early and would be looking for players to fill weak spots in the farm.  If it doesn't work it doesn't work.

Right now Pineda and Cruz are the only two I could see that other teams would be very interested in trading for.  Maybe Happ and Simons depending on how they play down the stretch.  Then you have to decide on Berrios and Buxton.  The other guys might be tradable but I doubt the return would be anything more than a lottery ticket type player.  So yeah I agree with you I doubt they can trade all seven guys and they won't move guys with more than one year without an overpay.  Might be lucky to see 3 guys move in the end unless all 7 start producing soon.

 

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This isn't really "their" core though, so I think they could survive it. But, it surely is a consideration.

We can't know what the conversations were in Sept/Oct 2016 when Falvey was hired. Those had to have centered on what to do with the emerging core that was being inherited.

The degree to which Falvey can tell the guy who signs his paycheck, "this is one of the scenarios I laid out for you almost five years ago, remember?" will be the degree to which he can commit to a rebuild.

My previous post indicates what I think that degree to be. :) "Last place in 2021, Berrios and probably Buxton dealt at the deadline? Um, no, I don't recall that particular scenario coming up."

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1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

This is one of those situations where you see who is willing to overpay at the deadline.

If you get an amazing deal, you say so long to Jose and rebuild in '22. If not blown away, hang on tight and try one more time for an extension in the off-season. Don't trade him just to trade him.

I could see a team like the Cardinals pulling the trigger with 2 of their top guys (#30/31). 

Great observation, thanks.

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1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

I could see a team like the Cardinals pulling the trigger with 2 of their top guys (#30/31). 

I'm not so sure. Nothing against Berrios, but his career high ERA+ is 122, and he's at 103 over 2020-2021 so far.

He reminds me of Zack Wheeler -- a solid guy that teams will pursue in FA, but not necessarily deal a top prospect package for. I remember the 2019 Mets dangling Wheeler at the deadline but ultimately held on to him. He's been great for Philly so far, 153 ERA+, but it's a bit riskier to part with prospects rather than cash if a team is hoping for that kind of improvement.

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2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

None of the prospects will produce a 3 WAR season in 2022. We’d be lucky to get half the value. And free agent starting pitchers that could surpass 3 WAR are unrealistic or nearing 40 years old. Again, we don’t have a surplus of starting pitching, or pitching in general. 

I agree they probably won't produce 3 WAR.  The difference in our positions is that I don't see that extra 1 or 2 WAR being at all significant in terms of the likelihood of the 2022 team contending.  This team just does not have the talent to be a serious contender.  I don't see them competing until some of the pitching prospects step up.  I agree with you that's not going to happen overnight.  The old regime was never willing to face reality like Chicago did when they traded Sale and Eaton.

The offer has to be good but let's be realistic in that Berrios is not an ace.  We also don't have to trade 7 or 8 players.  However, we should take what we can get for the rentals and use the roster spot to audition prospects.  Pineda could bring back a decent piece.  Robles has been looking like he could really get it together between now and the deadline.  If so, he could bring back a nice player too.  Then, there is Rogers who could also be a great trade asset if he gets consistent.  I guess we have quite a few guys that fit that description.

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Dealing Berrios isn't punting on only one year and then kick starting the next Twins run for 2023 and beyond. I hope everybody advocating for a trade realizes that. Balazovic hasn't thrown a pitch above high A yet. Duran has 37 unimpressive innings at AA; I guess we'll see how AAA goes this year. Both are currently on the DL, which itself is another hurdle. Van already said it, the pitching pipeline in this organization isn't exactly about to burst. Expecting either of the prospects to replace Berrios or even jump into the lineup within the next 1.5 years and be effective at the major league level seems overly optimistic. 

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9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Dealing Berrios isn't punting on only one year and then kick starting the next Twins run for 2023 and beyond. I hope everybody advocating for a trade realizes that. Balazovic hasn't thrown a pitch above high A yet. Duran has 37 unimpressive innings at AA; I guess we'll see how AAA goes this year. Both are currently on the DL, which itself is another hurdle. Van already said it, the pitching pipeline in this organization isn't exactly about to burst. Expecting either of the prospects to replace Berrios or even jump into the lineup within the next 1.5 years and be effective at the major league level seems overly optimistic. 

Even with Berrios, then, who is pitching next year? I think everyone here knows this pipeline isn't ideal.....everyone.

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