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birdwatcher

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birdwatcher last won the day on October 18 2019

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  1. Yes, that's the general rule of thumb. The exception might be when a replacement is better than the player being traded, with plenty of backup support. I'm not 100% certain that this is the case, but Kirilloff could in fact be an upgrade over Sano by the deadline. Dealing Polanco carries greater risk. In any case, if I were GM and this criteria was met, I'd STILL only make a trade if there was an overpay in place.
  2. I'd phrase it differently: the Twins made a quality deision, and it remains to be seen if the results match up.
  3. I think you're right about this. Is it too much to dream that Sano and/or Polanco come back strong and are traded for serious prospect capital at the deadline? That's my aspiration were I the GM.
  4. I really think you're on to something here, Nash. We have three teams in the division that have now had the benefit of selecting elite prospects for a number of years. KC, CWS, and DET have zero excuse for NOT being much better. Early draft choices are underrated IMO. Also underrated: financial capacity. So, for example, Luis Robert fits CWS's budget, but not the budget of the other teams in the division. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but my gut is telling me that what I'm watching is not encouraging for Twins fans. I'll spare y'all the dozen or so indicators I think I'm seeing.
  5. Shane Mack comes to mind for me. But I do agree that, as infrequent as it is, losing someone like Baddoo is bound to happen to teams with a ton of depth in the system. Frankly, I'd be happy to see Baddoo have a Shane Mack-like career. It's not probable though. BTW, the Tigers are probably going to be respectable this year. I think the entire ALC may be under-estimated.
  6. Short answer, for me, is yes. Why? Because, despite their shortcomings and inexperience, in tandem, they are possibly an upgrade over Rosario. Secondly, Kirilloff, I believe, is the real deal, and Larnach and Celestino may be too. This sets the club up to convert surplus assets (Rooker? Cave? Garlick? Wade... oops nevermind) into future assets while simultaneously upgrading a position mid-season, and importantly, a position that was NOT compromised when Rosario was allowed to walk. I tend to think the concerns about either/both Buxton/Kepler having a bad season should at least be balanced a
  7. Yeah, I think all of this, plus the reality that he's a liability in the field, not just a little worse than, say, Garlick. My guess is that Cave and Garlick are viewed by the FO as half-season 2021 placeholders for Kirilloff and/or Larnach/Celestino. Rooker is probably mostly regarded as an injury replacement for Cruz in 2021, maybe his permanent replacement beyond this year if he can cut down a little on the K's.
  8. The injury plague continues for this organization. One top prospect after another, delayed or derailed it seems. Snakebit much? Must be horribly frustrating for Lewis, and for others instrumental in his development as well.
  9. I just glanced at FanGraphs and see Lewis ranked at #23, so they clearly still like him a lot. Gore looks like he's going to be terrific too. But I would imagine Falvey's amateur scouts feel pretty good that their collective recommendation that the FO pass on Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay (both though by a majority of experts to be a better choice than Lewis) looks sound. Kyle Wright appears to be a solid major leagur player, but the "right" #5 overall selection. And given the higher injury risk associated with pitchers, I wonder if the Twins would trade Lewis for Gore straight up. Probably,
  10. In tepid defense of Mike Sixtel, (coincidentally, I ingested some delicious mushrooms tonight ) I do understand his concern. Given a three year draft and development record, with 2020 being one of them, the amateur scouting people and Falvey passed over pitching in the first round. Mr. Sixtel may eat crow regarding one or more of Enlow, Raya, and Canterino picks, especially if he's open to comparing results team to team. A couple things cross my mind. First, if the goal is to have the equivalence of first round drafts in your rotation? It's possible that Berrios, Pineda, and Maeda will ancho
  11. This lacks context. How many such pitchers does the average team have that FanGraphs projects as a number 2 or better?
  12. They paid overslot money to four others besides Enlow, and Enlow alone got a half mil above slot. But if your point is that Lewis wasn't much of a savings over Wright, McKay, or Gore, you're right. Greene cost a half mil more. If you want to argue about the lack of top end pitchers drafted and developed over time? First, you seem to be violating a rule you chastise others for violation by bringing the former FO into a conversation about the decisions of the current FO. We all know what the roster looks like. It's not a disputed fact. Berrios is the lone frontline starter drafted and develope
  13. You initially had two opinions. Both are controversial. I question whether it's an apt description to say the Twins are sorely lacking in top end pitching. Change my mind. It appears experts like FanGraphs and Gleeman think otherwise. I also question whether top end pitching is as dependent as you seem to suggest on early draft choices. We can cite examples of top end starting rotations that are NOT loaded with that team's early choices, or that perhaps include early choices acquired later via trade, like Odorizzi was. So while I agree with you that it's great to pluck stud pitching prospe
  14. Because there are several holdovers among the dozens of people who weigh in on all of this. As you know, I think it's simplistic to think that the FO is essentially the only consideration.
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