12 years ago today

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins finalized the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets and set the stage for what would happen to the franchise starting in 2011.

[notoriousgod71]

 

The Twins finalized the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets and set the stage for what would happen to the franchise starting in 2011.

Kevin Mulvey... what could have been...

[Doctor Gast]

A sad day, how we`ve missed Johan Santana! Can Berrios fill his shoes? Hope so

[Major League Ready]

He had 13.9 fWAR in 5 years with the Mets.  It seems a stretch to say trading him was the Twins downfall.  Holding out too long with other trade partners and not getting a better return was the real error IMO. Johan was great while he was here.  He produced 31.6 fWAR for the Twins.  Trading him right before he declined should have been a good move. They just screwed up in terms of what they got back.

[bighat]

A good example of why the Twins and their fans should not be overprotective when it comes to prospects. The Twins traded a Cy Young winner for Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.  Gomez was a decent player, Humber finished his career with a total of 16 wins - none of them for the Twins - and a 5.31 ERA (along with the most improbable perfect game in MLB history).

 

Aside from Lewis, nobody in the farm system should be untouchable if the Twins can get proven MLB pitching back in return!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

He had 13.9 fWAR in 5 years with the Mets.  It seems a stretch to say trading him was the Twins downfall.  Holding out too long with other trade partners and not getting a better return was the real error IMO. Johan was great while he was here.  He produced 31.6 fWAR for the Twins.  Trading him right before he declined should have been a good move. They just screwed up in terms of what they got back.

 

I think the big problem is he had a great year and we could have used him that year... 

 

And I'll simply note that Santana really put us in a bind by noting that he'd only go to an east coast team. We never got to use the Dodgers at all, and the Mets were essentially bidding against themselves and knew it... We got a pretty crappy haul, and we all knew it the moment we saw it... It was then compounded by rushing Gomez to show that we gotten something for it even though he needed more minor league time and his best years were spent elsewhere in exchange for a good season of JJ Hardy and eventually Capps/Hoey… Good Lord Smith was bad at trading. 

[USAFChief]

I think the big problem is he had a great year and we could have used him that year...

 

And I'll simply note that Santana really put us in a bind by noting that he'd only go to an east coast team. We never got to use the Dodgers at all, and the Mets were essentially bidding against themselves and knew it... We got a pretty crappy haul, and we all knew it the moment we saw it... It was then compounded by rushing Gomez to show that we gotten something for it even though he needed more minor league time and his best years were spent elsewhere in exchange for a good season of JJ Hardy and eventually Capps/Hoey… Good Lord Smith was bad at trading.

concur. And said so at the time.

 

Put another 230 innings on his arm and take the picks.

[redstorm]

Just for fun, if the Twins were to make that trade today, who do you think would be the comparables of the four players they got back? I probably spent more time than I should have on this lol.

 

I know these aren't perfect, but here is my attempt:

 

Brennen Davis (Gomez) - 20 year old top 75ish CF prospect with above average tools across the board. 6'4" frame with plus speed and good power potential - sounds a lot like Gomez. Davis is two years younger than Gomez was at the time, with much less minor league experience, but the profile is similar.

 

Simeon Woods Richardson (Guerra) - fringe top 100 RHP prospect, 19 year old who also is a fast mover and was an 18 year old at high-A. Guerra's out pitch was a changeup if I remember correctly, whereas Richardson is more of a breaking ball pitcher.

 

Beau Burrows (Humber) - 23 years old, top 100 prospect a year ago (Humber was #73 the year before). Both were previously 1st round picks, similar frames and pitch repertoire, both posted moderate strikeout numbers in the minors.

 

Tanner Houck (Mulvey) - 23 years old, both were recent high round college draft picks. Both were fast movers through the minors. Houck has more velocity than Mulvey had, but both had similar K/control numbers. Admittedly, this was the hardest comp for me to find.

 

That said, looking back (and forward), both trades seem like losing propositions for the team giving up the ace pitcher.

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 It was then compounded by rushing Gomez to show that we gotten something for it even though he needed more minor league time and his best years were spent elsewhere in exchange for a good season of JJ Hardy and eventually Capps/Hoey… Good Lord Smith was bad at trading. 

Yup, I suspect that's what the OP meant by "setting the stage" rather than the Johan deal itself was our downfall (although it certainly didn't help in the 2008 season or in the 2009 draft).

[Otto von Ballpark]

What's weird is that we traded Garza (and Bartlett) for Delmon Young just a couple months earlier -- Delmon turned out to be a bust, of course, but that was still a "win now" type of move.

 

Then we turned around and traded another pitcher, our ace Johan, away from the 2008 team in exchange for speculative (and mostly poor) future assets.

 

It was such a weird combination of moves, and it led to our 2008 opening day starter being Livan Hernandez, in a season which featured prime Mauer and Morneau and other useful players. Kind of a waste of talent.

 

Delmon was a bad baseball move, but I think Johan was a panic move by the Bill Smith front office -- they became so afraid they'd lose him "for nothing" like Torii that they ignored the value Johan could have brought the team in 2008 and in the 2009 draft (comp picks were a lot better back then).

[Dantes929]

 

concur. And said so at the time.

Put another 230 innings on his arm and take the picks.

I was on that side also.    With how much everyone always wants an ace, to have one at 13 mil even for one year was an asset I didn't want to give up.   Besides which, he said he would block an in season trade but if the Twins had tanked I predicted he would have welcomed a mid season trade.   Worst case scenario as you said was two draft picks.      I was intrigued by Jon Lester, even if it was one for one.   Not sure if it was ever really even on the table.    Oh well, the flip side, Gomez was a toolsy guy and if we had more patience it might have paid off.   He had some good years with Mil.

[Dantes929]

 

A good example of why the Twins and their fans should not be overprotective when it comes to prospects. The Twins traded a Cy Young winner for Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.  Gomez was a decent player, Humber finished his career with a total of 16 wins - none of them for the Twins - and a 5.31 ERA (along with the most improbable perfect game in MLB history).

 

Aside from Lewis, nobody in the farm system should be untouchable if the Twins can get proven MLB pitching back in return!

I don't know.   Flip side to everything.    Mets paid a fortune for 4 years and 15 WAR.   Gomez had a 4 year stretch of 17 WAR with the Brewers.  I wonder how Mets fans view that trade.   I agree no one in the farm system should be untouchable but I am guessing at one time many  here would have been excited about a  Kepler, Polanco, Berrios for Chris Archer trade at one point.   .   I don't want to be overprotective of prospects but don't to undervalue them either.  

[Dave Overlund]

My main takeaway from this was how Terry Ryan left Bill Smith to hold the bag when it all came down with Hunter and Santana. The going got tough and Terry got going. Maybe harsh, but that's how I remember it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My main takeaway from this was how Terry Ryan left Bill Smith to hold the bag when it all came down with Hunter and Santana. The going got tough and Terry got going. Maybe harsh, but that's how I remember it. 

TR let a few guys walk before -- nobody as big as Hunter or Santana, but still, I suspect he knew their contributions were important to a contending team (as we were at the time), and the draft pick compensation was valuable.

 

If Smith had simply followed TR's example in that regard, things probably would have turned out better.

[Paul]

 

I think the big problem is he had a great year and we could have used him that year... 

 

And I'll simply note that Santana really put us in a bind by noting that he'd only go to an east coast team. We never got to use the Dodgers at all, and the Mets were essentially bidding against themselves and knew it... We got a pretty crappy haul, and we all knew it the moment we saw it... It was then compounded by rushing Gomez to show that we gotten something for it even though he needed more minor league time and his best years were spent elsewhere in exchange for a good season of JJ Hardy and eventually Capps/Hoey… Good Lord Smith was bad at trading. 

In my opinion the biggest error in the chain was Gardy dumping Hardy for a kid who could throw hard but not pitch.  The Twins lost one of the better defenders in the league at the SS position.  And a guy  who was better than an average bat for a SS.  And played amateur ball with Mauer since they were preteens.  I think this act, and awarding that guy from the Rays the position, and how they chose to respond to in house criticism of it, lost them the clubhouse.  And the slide began.  I'm still pissed about it!

[twins_89]

To me the biggest mistake was the Twins deciding they had to move Santana no matter the return. At the time, I thought the team would have been better off keeping Johan for the season and trying to make a playoff run. Having one season of prime Santana (230 innings and 5.2 fWAR that year) would have been significantly more valuable than the package the Twins got in return (I thought so at the time and I still think this today).

[Mr. Brooks]

Just for fun, if the Twins were to make that trade today, who do you think would be the comparables of the four players they got back? I probably spent more time than I should have on this lol.

 

I know these aren't perfect, but here is my attempt:

 

Brennen Davis (Gomez) - 20 year old top 75ish CF prospect with above average tools across the board. 6'4" frame with plus speed and good power potential - sounds a lot like Gomez. Davis is two years younger than Gomez was at the time, with much less minor league experience, but the profile is similar.

 

Simeon Woods Richardson (Guerra) - fringe top 100 RHP prospect, 19 year old who also is a fast mover and was an 18 year old at high-A. Guerra's out pitch was a changeup if I remember correctly, whereas Richardson is more of a breaking ball pitcher.

 

Beau Burrows (Humber) - 23 years old, top 100 prospect a year ago (Humber was #73 the year before). Both were previously 1st round picks, similar frames and pitch repertoire, both posted moderate strikeout numbers in the minors.

 

Tanner Houck (Mulvey) - 23 years old, both were recent high round college draft picks. Both were fast movers through the minors. Houck has more velocity than Mulvey had, but both had similar K/control numbers. Admittedly, this was the hardest comp for me to find.

 

That said, looking back (and forward), both trades seem like losing propositions for the team giving up the ace pitcher.

Woods-Richardson is now a Jays prospect.

He was part of the package for Stroman at the trade deadline last year.

[KirbyDome89]

 

A good example of why the Twins and their fans should not be overprotective when it comes to prospects. The Twins traded a Cy Young winner for Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.  Gomez was a decent player, Humber finished his career with a total of 16 wins - none of them for the Twins - and a 5.31 ERA (along with the most improbable perfect game in MLB history).

 

Aside from Lewis, nobody in the farm system should be untouchable if the Twins can get proven MLB pitching back in return!

If MN pulls the trigger on Boston's offer of Lester, Ellsbury, ect I'd imagine we'd have a different view of the trade. 

 

I agree that no prospects should be untouchable, and the team has put themselves in a position where they now need to spend prospects alongside $$ to bring in postseason pitching. That said, I think all too often prospects of all tiers are lumped together. The type of prospects MN will need to move for an ace (Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, ect) have a much better shot at contributing to a major league club. 

[ewen21]

 

My main takeaway from this was how Terry Ryan left Bill Smith to hold the bag when it all came down with Hunter and Santana. The going got tough and Terry got going. Maybe harsh, but that's how I remember it. 

Not harsh at all.  Ryan actually stepped down and basically admitted that the job was too much for him.  He had no problem, however, coming back after the team had bottomed out.

 

The kind of "low risk/high reward" move TR just loved to embrace

[ewen21]

I had no problem with the Delmon for Garza trade and it would be nice to see a similar kind of trade made, only the other way around.

 

For all of Delmon's real faults and perceived faults he was a talented hitter.  The Twins did a HORRENDOUS job with him.  Absolutely horrendous.  I will never forget hearing Gardy on with PA and Dubay at the Winter Caravan or whatever and when they asked him what the OF would look like he had Delmon in right, Cuddy in left and Gomez in CF.  I guess Cuddyer wasn't having any of that so they moved Delmon to left and batted him third, basically setting him up to fail

 

Even worse was what was done with Brendan Harris.  After what Punto did in 2007 Gardy STILL thought of him as an everyday player and he nitpicked Harris for his glove.  I would much MUCH rather have had Harris in the lineup than Punto and lose whatever defense Punto brought.  I actually think the presence of Nick Punto was a big problem for the Twins.  He was a living breathing example of favoritism and it did no good for anyone.

 

Gardenhire should have never been extended after the 2010 season

[ewen21]

 

If MN pulls the trigger on Boston's offer of Lester, Ellsbury, ect I'd imagine we'd have a different view of the trade. 

 

 

The Red Sox and Yankees basically said SCREW YOU to the Twins and then it was all over.  They had a small window to make that deal.  Smith made a tactical error by playing a game of chicken with those two teams.  They withdrew and figured we will wait until free agency.  To heck with dealing away young players if our deals aren't good enough (and if it was reported correctly it was good enough).The Red Sox were willing to give up what you said and the Yankees (I believe) had Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and I forget who else.  Certainly not terrible in comparison to what we had to settle for with the Mets.

 

 

[Shaitan]

 

What's weird is that we traded Garza (and Bartlett) for Delmon Young just a couple months earlier -- Delmon turned out to be a bust, of course, but that was still a "win now" type of move.

 

Then we turned around and traded another pitcher, our ace Johan, away from the 2008 team in exchange for speculative (and mostly poor) future assets.

 

It was such a weird combination of moves, and it led to our 2008 opening day starter being Livan Hernandez, in a season which featured prime Mauer and Morneau and other useful players. Kind of a waste of talent.

 

Delmon was a bad baseball move, but I think Johan was a panic move by the Bill Smith front office -- they became so afraid they'd lose him "for nothing" like Torii that they ignored the value Johan could have brought the team in 2008 and in the 2009 draft (comp picks were a lot better back then).

 

It kind of reminds me of Cleveland 2019-2020.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

Oh well, the flip side, Gomez was a toolsy guy and if we had more patience it might have paid off.   He had some good years with Mil.

Or if they had valued J.J. Hardy enough not to trade him for such a puzzlingly light return. Gomez had more good years left after that trade than Hardy, as I recall, but at least he would have been seen as the asset needed to make a smart deal happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It kind of reminds me of Cleveland 2019-2020.

A little, although Cleveland 2019-2020 hasn't traded anyone presently as good as Johan circa 2007. (Maybe not even Bartlett circa 2007, and certainly not prospects like Garza circa 2007.) And they've gotten back MLB players in those deals too.

 

Cleveland is probably guilty of being a bit too conservative on the payroll side, but they haven't give up that much talent in trade yet. (Obviously that changes if they pull the trigger on a Lindor deal, although I suspect that won't happen at this time.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not going to re-litigate the Johan trade because that's been done.

 

What truly baffled me that offseason was that I checked out for a couple of months for life stuff (lived in CA at the time) and came back to find both Johan *and* Garza gone.

 

I remember asking "WHO THE HELL IS GOING TO PITCH?" and was proven painfully right over the next few years as the team came oh-so-close but couldn't field a legitimately good team for two more years.

 

Keep Johan, keep Garza, whatever... but trading both in the same offseason was just stupid.

[bird]

Wait a second, back up. You guys are looking at this all wrong.

 

Jared Camp for Johan Santana. Jared Camp gave us Johan, and Gomez, and Guerra, and Humber, and Mulvey, and Hardy, and Jacobson, and Hoey, and Rauch. I rest my case, your honor.

[mlhouse]

I think it is a good lesson for the Twins if they want to remain a legitimate baseball team.

 

There is only one reason why the Twins have historically been reluctant to trade prospects away:   they are too cheap to pay any established talent.

 

What this has meant is that the Twins farm system has never been maximized to its full value.  PLayers that we could have traded because of their unknown upside with significant premiums slowly moved through the system until this upside became a known and the premium vanished away.  Eventually, some of the prospects hit a break water and there isn't anywhere for them to go.   

 

A handful of years ago, what could the TWins have received in a trade centered on a prospect like Fernando Romero or Kohl Stewart?  OR going back in time, Joe Benson or Michael Restovich?

 

I can't remember the details of the rumor because it is almost 20 years ago now, but I remember hearing about trade rumors involving Adam Johnson that were insane.  Same with Benson and Restovich.  Who knows if those rumors were true or not, but the reluctance to trade away prospects for established, but more expensive talent has cost this team lots of wins.

 

So, as players like Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, and Lewis move through the system if we want to stay amongst the better teams in the league we need to have a long term plan and move those players that do not have a place in it.

 

Another thing we need to do to maximize the trade value of our prospects is move them through the system quicker.   One reason Gomez was valued so highly, as was the other OF the Twins really wanted FErnando Martinez, was they were 19 year olds playing in AA or whatever level at whatever age.   This magnified their value to potential trade partners.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

concur. And said so at the time.

 

Put another 230 innings on his arm and take the picks.

yeah, the deal they got was the worst of both. Trade him for a good return or keep him. Don’t trade for the sake of trading him.

[ewen21]

 

yeah, the deal they got was the worst of both. Trade him for a good return or keep him. Don’t trade for the sake of trading him.

The damage was already done and they literally HAD TO trade him.  I absolutely hated the Mets deal from jump street.  Being a New Yorker, I knew a little about Carlos Gomez and I didn't like him.  My best friend is a Mets fan and he loved Gomez.  I thought he was one of the dumbest players I have ever seen on top of being a complete hot dog.  Between him and Punto I was pulling out my hair in 2008.  They gave us some of the most unprofessional at bats I have ever seen.  You cannot make it that easy for the other team to get outs and these morons were bunting with two strikes!

 

The worm turned when we dealt Hunter and Santana and it wasn't just their talent we lost.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The damage was already done and they literally HAD TO trade him.

 

The worm turned when we dealt Hunter and Santana and it wasn't just their talent we lost.

Found this article (partially by Aaron Gleeman) that agreed with you.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/another-look-at-the-johan-santana-trade/

 

Johan put the ultimatum down. Trade me to a team on my list by December x 2008 or don’t trade. At that point 72 hours to sign an extension and the deal is done, or else he wouldn’t give the OK on the trade.

 

The Twins could have taken the picks. Johan would have pitched well for them as it was a walk year. Honestly the picks probably would have worked better for them...