Dobnak to be promoted to Twins

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Really impressed with all the darts the FO is throwing against the wall. Not like bullpen was an area of concern. Let's see what a 24 year old with 100 innings above A-ball pitch for a team in the pennant race. Anything to not add payroll.

Ouch !

[nokomismod]

 

There seems to be some similarity between Smeltzer and Dobnak. 

Just can't put my finger on it...

 

The beginnings of a MLB version of the Hanson Bros?

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

What signs are those? His 5.55 FIP or his 2.8 per 9 K rate?


Also, it would have been nice to try some guys out last year, when the team was below .500. Jake Reed for example. He’s fallen off this year but last year a little before this date, this same FO made the inexcusable decision to continue to roster Matt Belisle instead of giving Reed 8 weeks at the MLB level.

 

The day Jake Reed is relevant enough to finally surpass the 90's Vikings wide receiver of his namesake in Google search results is the day I'll lose sleep over him still being in AAA ball.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

They got to work with what they have to work with. When you release 4 out of the bullpen in July and only trade for 2. You have announced to everyone that you have to work with what you have to work with.

 

Is that gif from the series From the Earth to the Moon?

 

That there is high engineering drama!

[MMMordabito]

I wonder if Dobnak can make Jack Morris bawl during a broadcast.

[Jham]

He looked great last Friday. So he arrives with the coveted Ashbury Seal Of Approval. Quality Assured.

 

I compare this post to a kiss from a rose on the grey.

[yarnivek1972]

Is that gif from the series From the Earth to the Moon?

 

That there is high engineering drama!

Apollo 13 actually. Lots of the same people involved in production though.

[MMMordabito]

 

That’s a very low K rate in this era. I suppose he might get by with whatever he is using to fool hitters for a little while at the MLB level.

 

18% career K-Rate for Randy, but 21.7% at AA/AAA.

 

The following pitchers this year have over 2 WAR with a K-Rate under 21.7:

 

(Player/K-Rate/WAR)

 

Marco Gonzalez / 16.8 / 2.8

Miles Mikolas / 17.7 / 2.1

Marcus Stroman / 19.1 / 3.0

Mike Soroka / 19.8 / 3.0

Masahiro Tanaka / 19.9 / 2.1

Jose Quintana / 20.1 / 2.5

Michael Pineda / 21.3 / 2.0

Kyle Hendriks / 21.6 / 2.8

 

Not going to say that Dobnak is going to provide that value, but there are definitely some pitchers that are useful with lower K-Rates.   I think we take any of those guys as a #5, and there are a couple that would be at least #2.

 

Also had to grab this from his Adopt-A-Prospect page last year (updated by his father):

 

Apparently, he's Iceman.

 

 

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Apollo 13 actually. Lots of the same people involved in production though.

My bad.

 

I was certainly thinking the part where they covered the same excitement.

[AceWrigley]

Must be that baseball hotbed called Alderson-Broaddus College in WV which has produced . . . oh lets see . . . zero major leagers. Go get em Randy. We can call him, "The Dobnak". Faith baby. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

18% career K-Rate for Randy, but 21.7% at AA/AAA.

 

The following pitchers this year have over 2 WAR with a K-Rate under 21.7:

 

(Player/K-Rate/WAR)

 

Marco Gonzalez / 16.8 / 2.8

Miles Mikolas / 17.7 / 2.1

Marcus Stroman / 19.1 / 3.0

Mike Soroka / 19.8 / 3.0

Masahiro Tanaka / 19.9 / 2.1

Jose Quintana / 20.1 / 2.5

Michael Pineda / 21.3 / 2.0

Kyle Hendriks / 21.6 / 2.8

 

Not going to say that Dobnak is going to provide that value, but there are definitely some pitchers that are useful with lower K-Rates. I think we take any of those guys as a #5, and there are a couple that would be at least #2.

 

Of course, Stroman had 28-30% K% at AA/AAA. Soroka was around 30% at AAA. Even Hendricks, who was kind of an unheralded prospect, reached 23.3% at AAA before he got the call to MLB, in a league with a 19.8% rate. (Dobnak is at 19.0% in a 22.7% league at AAA right now.)

 

That's not to say success is impossible for Dobnak or anything. But his ability to miss bats in MLB will be something to watch.

[Dman]

I wasn't a big believer in Dobnak because of his K9 numbers and the fact he came in not drafted. Looking at the rest of his stats though he looks OK.  The WHIP is in line with earning a shot at the Majors because he appears to have decent control and since his ERA is low I assume guys are not generating great contact against him either. 

 

Does anyone have a scouting report on this guy? Does he have any above average pitches?  He has never been mentioned as much of a prospect that I can see so a little worried he might get exposed at the MLB level.  However, given what I saw from Perez the other night I doubt he can do much worse than that. 

 

Although he has been pretty consistent all year I am a little bit surprised that the Twins were willing to give him a 40 man spot.  They must really believe he is a big part of the future if they are adding him now IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Although he has been pretty consistent all year I am a little bit surprised that the Twins were willing to give him a 40 man spot. They must really believe he is a big part of the future if they are adding him now IMO.

Or, they have plenty of room on the 40-man right now to give Dobnak a look, and they're not too concerned about the risk of losing Dobnak on waivers eventually. We promoted Andrew Albers to the 40-man in August 2014 too, it didn't mean he was a part of our future. (I wouldn't be surprised if Dobnak eventually wound up in a foreign league too, although he is young enough he can probably ride the AAA shuttle for a couple years first even if he doesn't stick in MLB.)

[yarnivek1972]

Of course, Stroman had 28-30% K% at AA/AAA. Soroka was around 30% at AAA. Even Hendricks, who was kind of an unheralded prospect, reached 23.3% at AAA before he got the call to MLB, in a league with a 19.8% rate. (Dobnak is at 19.0% in a 22.7% league at AAA right now.)

 

That's not to say success is impossible for Dobnak or anything. But his ability to miss bats in MLB will be something to watch.

Exactly. Context. This is a swing and miss era. MLB pitchers as a whole are 22.8%. Dobnak is well below that in AAA.

 

As I said, it might work for awhile because he has such limited pro experience there isn’t much of a book on him. But I would consider long term success unlikely. I doubt he’s much better than Kohl Stewart.

[MMMordabito]

 

Of course, Stroman had 28-30% K% at AA/AAA. Soroka was around 30% at AAA. Even Hendricks, who was kind of an unheralded prospect, reached 23.3% at AAA before he got the call to MLB, in a league with a 19.8% rate. (Dobnak is at 19.0% in a 22.7% league at AAA right now.)

That's not to say success is impossible for Dobnak or anything. But his ability to miss bats in MLB will be something to watch.

 

I cherry-picked the cream of the low K% crop .... Perhaps my qualifiers should have been WAR greater than Martin Perez with AA/AAA/MLB K% +/- 1% Randy Dobnak .... I'm too lazy to do it again though

[rdehring]

 

Or, they have plenty of room on the 40-man right now to give Dobnak a look, and they're not too concerned about the risk of losing Dobnak on waivers eventually. We promoted Andrew Albers to the 40-man in August 2014 too, it didn't mean he was a part of our future. (I wouldn't be surprised if Dobnak eventually wound up in a foreign league too, although he is young enough he can probably ride the AAA shuttle for a couple years first even if he doesn't stick in MLB.)

Am always surprised when some of us have him off the Korea or someplace else before throwing his first pitch for the Twins.  I may be wrong, but is he not the most successful starting pitcher in the organization (of pitchers with a reasonable # of innings) in terms of allowing runs?

 

I really want the Twins to hit it big with someone who hasn't been a top prospect all his life.  Someone who shows up at Target Field and surprises everyone with his success.  Let's hope like heck it is Randy Dobnak!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Am always surprised when some of us have him off the Korea or someplace else before throwing his first pitch for the Twins.  I may be wrong, but is he not the most successful starting pitcher in the organization (of pitchers with a reasonable # of innings) in terms of allowing runs?

 

I really want the Twins to hit it big with someone who hasn't been a top prospect all his life.  Someone who shows up at Target Field and surprises everyone with his success.  Let's hope like heck it is Randy Dobnak!

I'll absolutely join you in rooting for Dobnak!

 

I didn't mean to cast aspersions on his chances, but you have to admit, he's already been overlooked a few times in North America. That profile profile doesn't preclude success here, of course, but suggests he may eventually find greater opportunity elsewhere.

 

"Most succesful run prevention SP in the org" may not be all that meaningful. Albers may have held that title in 2013. Remember Dietrich Enns? 1.73 ERA in a full minor league season in 2016, 2.05 the year we acquired him in 2017. Yohan Pino may have been close at times. Kris Johnson, Pat Dean, Dave Gassner, they all had some very good run prevention seasons in the minors.

[rdehring]

 

I'll absolutely join you in rooting for Dobnak!

 

I didn't mean to cast aspersions on his chances, but you have to admit, he's already been overlooked a few times in North America. That profile profile doesn't preclude success here, of course, but suggests he may eventually find greater opportunity elsewhere.

 

"Most succesful run prevention SP in the org" may not be all that meaningful. Albers may have held that title in 2013. Remember Dietrich Enns? 1.73 ERA in a full minor league season in 2016, 2.05 the year we acquired him in 2017. Yohan Pino may have been close at times. Kris Johnson, Pat Dean, Dave Gassner, they all had some very good run prevention seasons in the minors.

Agreed on that long list of pitchers who were awfully good down on the farm.  Still believe that had Pino been handled a bit different, he might have contributed.

 

I expect Thorpe to be in position to battle for a starting spot next spring.  Add to that Mr. Smeltzer, who has certainly surprised me.  Now crossing my fingers that Randy D. can be added to that group to battle for the #5 job...or maybe even the #4 and #5 spots in the Twins rotation.

[old nurse]

From https://www.skornorth.com/twins-2/2019/07/two-years-after-going-undrafted-twins-prospect-randy-dobnak-may-be-nearing-big-league-callup/ he has a 92-93 MPH 1 seam sinker that is 92-93 but not a high spin rate. He can touch 96. The question becomes how much movement does he get on it. If he gets good movement he will be effective as a ground ball pitcher. If not, well, the cup of coffee tasted great. If the coaching can add a couple miles to the pitch, he becomes an effective pitcher.

[old nurse]

 

 

I'll absolutely join you in rooting for Dobnak!

 

I didn't mean to cast aspersions on his chances, but you have to admit, he's already been overlooked a few times in North America. That profile profile doesn't preclude success here, of course, but suggests he may eventually find greater opportunity elsewhere.

 

"Most succesful run prevention SP in the org" may not be all that meaningful. Albers may have held that title in 2013. Remember Dietrich Enns? 1.73 ERA in a full minor league season in 2016, 2.05 the year we acquired him in 2017. Yohan Pino may have been close at times. Kris Johnson, Pat Dean, Dave Gassner, they all had some very good run prevention seasons in the minors.

Enns, Albers and Dean were all soft tossing lefties. Dobnak has better numbers at the same age than Pino and Johnson. They both basically got a shot with the Twins for a lack of options at the time. for an effective 4-5 starter . With Nolasco and Correa hovering around 5 or more ERA, you could even say 3 starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dobnak has better numbers at the same age than Pino and Johnson.

Pino scuffled a bit in his age 24 season, but at age 22-23 he was great at A/A+, and at 25 he was good at AA/AAA too. So I wouldn't throw him out of a comp group.

 

If you want harder throwers, Boof Bonser had a nice run prevention age 24 season, 2.81 ERA at AAA, and missed bats too -- 23.0% K% in a 18.0% league. Parlayed it into a decent stretch run filling in the Twins rotation that year, but not much else.

 

I've referenced him in regards to Smeltzer before, but Duensing was a pretty good minor league starter, age 23-24, and turned in some nice stretches in MLB at 26-27.

 

Swarzak was a little up and down in the high minors, filled in our pen for a few years, eventually did a stint in Korea, and has come back as a MLB reliever (perhaps a bit up and down again).

[old nurse]

 

Pino scuffled a bit in his age 24 season, but at age 22-23 he was great at A/A+, and at 25 he was good at AA/AAA too. So I wouldn't throw him out of a comp group.

 

If you want harder throwers, Boof Bonser had a nice run prevention age 24 season, 2.81 ERA at AAA, and missed bats too -- 23.0% K% in a 18.0% league. Parlayed it into a decent stretch run filling in the Twins rotation that year, but not much else.

 

I've referenced him in regards to Smeltzer before, but Duensing was a pretty good minor league starter, age 23-24, and turned in some nice stretches in MLB at 26-27.

 

Swarzak was a little up and down in the high minors, filled in our pen for a few years, eventually did a stint in Korea, and has come back as a MLB reliever (perhaps a bit up and down again).

Dobnak's highest ERA for a season is 3.14. Your comps do not compare to that.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Really impressed with all the darts the FO is throwing against the wall. Not like bullpen was an area of concern. Let's see what a 24 year old with 100 innings above A-ball pitch for a team in the pennant race. Anything to not add payroll.

 

How exactly do you propose the FO add payroll at this point in the season?

[nicksaviking]

 

I know where they can get some help with Starting pitching.  :-)

 

Congrats! Hope you get to make it to a game and hope he gets some innings fairly soon. I'll bet there will be some anxious sleepless nights until he does!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dobnak's highest ERA for a season is 3.14. Your comps do not compare to that.

Would you like to offer any comps yourself?

 

You dismissed him as a soft-tosser before, but Enns certainly meets this new ERA criteria.

 

Also, Dobnak has an advantage in this by having less than 2 full seasons so far. The fact that Pino had 1 season worse than 3.14 ERA out of 4 from age 22-25 doesn't eliminate him as a comp or anything.

[gunnarthor]

 

How exactly do you propose the FO add payroll at this point in the season?

They had the opportunity after the draft when Kuechel and Kimbrel were available. They had the opportunity to do so at the trade deadline. They didn't.

[a-wan]

Dobnak had such small amount of AAA numbers, combined with the higher HR at AAA makes comps to other AAA pitchers difficult.

[darin617]

So did Dobnak ever make any of the top prospect lists? And if you made an updated list where would he rank in just starting pitchers.

[old nurse]

 

Would you like to offer any comps yourself?

 

You dismissed him as a soft-tosser before, but Enns certainly meets this new ERA criteria.

 

Also, Dobnak has an advantage in this by having less than 2 full seasons so far. The fact that Pino had 1 season worse than 3.14 ERA out of 4 from age 22-25 doesn't eliminate him as a comp or anything.

Comp  by ERA, not style of pitching for Enns.  Pino by age was in lower levels. Right handed sinker/slider combo that produces ground balls. Unfortunately line drives at the major league level for his one appearance

[big dog]

Hope to see Randy do well as we move forward.  We could sure use a competent long man for the next few weeks.