Twins confirm interest in signing pitchers Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel

[Linus]

I guess it wasn’t only the draft pick keeping teams from signing Keuchel and Kimbrel.

 

As soon as they get their demand in line with the market they will have a contract.

This is what I’ve been saying all along. For plenty of teams like the twins it would have been a third round pick which just isn’t that big of a deal

[Mr. Brooks]

This is what I’ve been saying all along. For plenty of teams like the twins it would have been a third round pick which just isn’t that big of a deal

I think it would have been our second round pick. I believe the rule is that you forfeit your third draft pick, not necessarily third round.

[Doomtints]

The Twins may have blown their first pick this year (Cavaco has committed to a college) so they need the third round pick as insurance.

 

Steer looks like a good, safe pick for the Twins in the 3rd round. The Twins did not have a third round pick at all last year.

 

You can bet losing a draft pick mattered for the Twins. The previous front office picked far too many rubbishy pitchers in these rounds, but this year's draft for the Twins looks pretty darn good.

[Jake24]

Im certainly no expert but if a guy is taken round 1 he sure as hell isnt turning down that cash.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins may have blown their first pick this year (Cavaco has committed to a college) so they need the third round pick as insurance.

 

Steer looks like a good, safe pick for the Twins in the 3rd round. The Twins did not have a third round pick at all last year.

 

You can bet losing a draft pick mattered for the Twins. The previous front office picked far too many rubbishy pitchers in these rounds, but this year's draft for the Twins looks pretty darn good.

 

They've all committed to college. 

 

That said, even if he signed under slot, he'd be looking at a bonus around 3M... A smart financial planner could make that work for life. He's going to sign baring some sort of freak medical issue. 

[PseudoSABR]

[FLTwinsGuy]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1136321419074138112

Thats where i expected him to go so hopefully this is true.. Cubs might be the team to beat here but i am a little surprised that he hasnt signed anywhere yet

[TFRazor]

 

Thats where i expected him to go so hopefully this is true.. Cubs might be the team to beat here but i am a little surprised that he hasnt signed anywhere yet

he's waited this long. What's a couple more days or a week to get as much money as possible out of a contender amirite?

[twins1095]

 

They've all committed to college. 

 

That said, even if he signed under slot, he'd be looking at a bonus around 3M... A smart financial planner could make that work for life. He's going to sign baring some sort of freak medical issue. 

 

There are also tweets and quotes from the draft thread about him confirming his intent to want to play in the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is a recipe for avoiding rock bottom if the return is a parachute and a trampoline.  It's my whole point--if you can't win this year (36% chance to make the playoffs, 5th in line for a wild card), and you don't think you'll be there the next two either, why sit around for two more years of mediocrity, and then start the rebuild?  Instead, start the rebuild now with the best piece you have, since it's not going to do you any more real good?

 

This is the crux of my argument from our discussion of the Angels situation in the Trout thread.  Early returns (and it is still early, as it's a 3 year timeframe) indicate I was right.  The Angels are 4th in their division, 10th in their league, have a 0 run differential and a 4.5% chance at the playoffs with an 80 win projection.  The instant your current core can no longer realistically get you to the postseason, let alone compete in the postseason, tear down and shorten your rebuild.  If not, you'll be the Orioles who didn't start their rebuild until halfway through the 2018 season, and therefore, will have 2-3 more years of abysmal baseball to muddle through.

 

As for the Nats getting a return package along with salary relief, that's why I proposed adding Rendon.  Pairing those two should make a team willing to pay in both prospects and dollars.

 

It's really, really hard to get good value back on legit, controlled superstars. That's one reason why you rarely see them dealt, unless a team is really bad. Even if you think the next few seasons have low odds, you can take a lot of steps to improve your franchise in that time, short of trading your controlled superstar. (The Twins didn't have a superstar, but they've done a lot of this work since 2016.)

 

If I'm a fan who is frustrated with my team treading water, I would much rather see them shake up the front office and development staff/processes, and trade around the margins, instead of dealing a good, long-term asset. (And to be fair to the Angels, they did change GMs a few years ago.) Most packages of ~4 players/prospects that would be available to you in trade would be at best a small part of your rebuilding effort.

 

Scherzer is at least getting closer to the end of his contract, although I don't think he's quite at the point where prospect offers would likely offset his 2.5 year value -- he's still really good!

[Nine of twelve]

 

 

And really, the Twins are already looking to the postseason so maximum regular season improvement is not the same as postseason improvement.

I am NOT assuming anything, but the Twins have a very high chance of reaching the postseason without any roster changes. That's why it's important to consider the postseason when roster additions are being made. That makes starting pitching even less of a priority because the maximum number of starters needed for the postseason is four. If we get a starter we need to be certain that he will be significantly better than two of our current five (Pineda being the fifth, not Smeltzer). When it comes to the bullpen it would be an upgrade to be better than just 1 or 2 low-end guys.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It's really, really hard to get good value back on legit, controlled superstars. That's one reason why you rarely see them dealt, unless a team is really bad. Even if you think the next few seasons have low odds, you can take a lot of steps to improve your franchise in that time, short of trading your controlled superstar. (The Twins didn't have a superstar, but they've done a lot of this work since 2016.)

 

If I'm a fan who is frustrated with my team treading water, I would much rather see them shake up the front office and development staff/processes, and trade around the margins, instead of dealing a good, long-term asset. (And to be fair to the Angels, they did change GMs a few years ago.) Most packages of ~4 players/prospects that would be available to you in trade would be at best a small part of your rebuilding effort.

 

Scherzer is at least getting closer to the end of his contract, although I don't think he's quite at the point where prospect offers would likely offset his 2.5 year value -- he's still really good!

 

Some value is better than no value, which is what they'll get for Scherzer in two years.  If they think they can compete in the next two years, fine, I just think that's a little foolhardy.  Reason being, even more so than the Angels, the Nats have no real clear path to improvement currently.  Next year they have $146M tied up in 12 players, with 3 players hitting arb 1, two hitting arb 2, and one hitting arb 3.  even if they get good deals there, and keep all 8 of those players for a total of $11M, they're closing on $160M, and still need 5 more guys, including a re-signing/replacement of far and away their best offensive player, Rendon.  Signing him puts them quite close to $180M, which is their historical threshold.

 

Unfortunately, the Nationals cannot really fill in from within the system.  Fangraphs puts their farm system at 28th, and that's WITH Robles and Kieboom.  Subtract those two, and the Nats have 3 players with an FV above 40 (the Twins have 12 for reference).  One is Luis Garcia (who currently has a 46 wRC+ in AA), second is Mason Denaburg (HS pitcher drafted last year, assigned to the GCL, yet to throw a professional pitch), and third is Wil Crowe, who is pitching well at AA.  Their depth is also bad, as they only have 22 prospects with FV above 35--the Twins have 41.  All this means that not only are reinforcements not on the way, the Nats can't trade for more reinforcements without plundering their big league roster.

 

So the Nats are a team 5 games below .500, less than 50% to make the playoffs this year, in a division with two teams with better cores and better farm systems, have no internal reinforcements on the way, scant player capital to trade for upgrades, and negligible money to sign upgrades in free agency.  If they believe in the ability of Robles, Kieboom, and Turner to turn into 4-5 WAR players in the next two years, then they should keep Scherzer.  If not, and I lean on the not side right now, getting ANYTHING for Scherzer (and if that something is Graterol, Gordon, Larnach, and maybe more--that's not too bad) is a plus, as opposed to nothing in 2 years.

[Twodogs]

Kimbrel really feel apart last year. Maybe the time off will help him but nobody knows. That's why a one year deal for him works for me. I would also like to see another BP arm via trade. Keuchel could be good with the rest and Wes and I like getting a starter to add depth and cover for Pineda late season. Of course somehow landing a top starter via trade, now who wouldn't like that. These guys will need time to get up to speed but it's early so that works too.

IDK, seems like Boston used Kimbrel in the high leverage situations all post season and they won the whole thing so it appears that he is fine. I haven't heard about any significant dip in velocity from Kimbrel, as long as he is still throwing hard, any bad outings last year could be just that, a few bad outings.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1136307493397774336?s=19

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1136431087104798720

Deal in place

[lecroy24fan]

Kimbrel to the Cubs per Ken Rosenthal pending physical. 

[Mike Sixel]

Remember when they were interested in other expensive players and didn't sign them? Interested is meaningless. All he cost was money. Now if they want help, they have to give up players and money....

[notoriousgod71]

 

Remember when they were interested in other expensive players and didn't sign them? Interested is meaningless. All he cost was money. Now if they want help, they have to give up players and money....

 

Did anyone really fool themselves into believing they were going to pony up and shell out real money. They are only interested in bargains.

[lecroy24fan]

Let's see the terms before we get too bent out of shape. It's at least three years so I'm already glad they didn't do it if it's more than $50M.

[Danchat]

 

Remember when they were interested in other expensive players and didn't sign them? Interested is meaningless. All he cost was money. Now if they want help, they have to give up players and money....

I dunno, we have a bit of a prospect logjam coming this winter (40 man roster) and I think our farm is deep enough to trade from. There will be plenty of relievers to trade from.

 

I also said the same thing about relievers in free agency but they stood pat... but now with Hildy/Mejia/Romero flunking and Rogers/Parker as the main guys, methinks they will be addressing the need more aggressively through trades.

[Mike Sixel]

Did anyone really fool themselves into believing they were going to pony up and shell out real money. They are only interested in bargains.

Not me. Until they change, there is no evidence they will. In terms of money spending, or trading good prospects to get great players. I expect them to deal a mediocre prospect or two for minor help, and get bumped in the first round again.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, not cool that they let him get away.  If he truly was a "priority" then make it happen.

[Linus]

Smart people judge others based on their actions not their words. Apparently the window isn’t open wide enough

[lecroy24fan]

This deal would have been bad for the Twins. It is $10M this year, not prorated. $16M next 2 plus a club/vesting option in 2022. Yikes.

[USAFChief]

This deal would have been bad for the Twins. It is $10M this year, not prorated. $16M next 2 plus a club/vesting option in 2022. Yikes.

Bad in what way? Less profit?

[lecroy24fan]

 

Bad in what way? Less profit?

If he sucks and hits that option your stuck with him another year. I would have done 2 years plus the option at what he took.

[jorgenswest]

Bad in what way? Less profit?

I wish they had done that deal. However I can see the risk. Relievers don’t often have gradual declines. If he is done before the contract is up that empty 16 million is going to hurt the Twins harder than the Cubs. I’ll trade the pain for a pennant this year but the deal can go bad.

[TheLeviathan]

There is always risk.  There is not always opportunity.

[USAFChief]

If he sucks and hits that option your stuck with him another year. I would have done 2 years plus the option at what he took.

Bank balances fly forever.

[yarnivek1972]

If he sucks and hits that option your stuck with him another year. I would have done 2 years plus the option at what he took.

If he sucks, the option likely doesn’t vest. That’s how those kinds of things work.

[lecroy24fan]

 

If he sucks, the option likely doesn’t vest. That’s how those kinds of things work.

Depends on the terms for it to vest.