Article: CHW 8, MIN 5: At Least That’s out of the Way

[Tom Froemming]

A major league debut is an exciting thing to watch, but more often than not, it simply seems like a burden a player must shed. Stephen Gonsalves gave up as many runs as he recorded outs in his debut, but now it’s all about moving forward from here.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Gonsalves: 23 Game Score, 1.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 58.2% strikes (32 of 55 pitches)

Home Runs: Cave (6), Kepler (17)

Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2-for-4, HR)

WPA of 0.1 or higher: None.

WPA of -0.1 or lower: May -.115, Mauer -.119, Gonsalves -.327

Download attachment: WinChart820.png

There’s no beating around the bush, Gonsalves had a bad debut. However, this game being delayed and then rain continuing to fall while he was on the mound couldn’t have helped. There were also some positive signs.

 

First off, Gonsalves got five swinging strikes on his 55 pitches and struck out three of the 13 batters he faced. The White Sox opened the second inning with a pair of hits followed by a walk, but then had a few fortunate bounces.

 

Gonsalves hit Kevan Smith as he was squaring to bunt. A curveball dropped down and got him on the toe. Next, Tim Anderson hit an RBI bloop single that had a hit probability of one percent per Baseball Savant. In the end, Gonsalves allowed seven balls in play, six of which went for hits, but four of those had a hit probability of 55 percent or lower.

 

Gonsalves’ early exit meant the bullpen had to cover the final 7 2/3 innings, and it took them 121 pitches to do so. That’s a big ask, given this is a pen that’s been overworked the past couple days and there’s not an open day on the scheduled for another week.

 

The first four hitters in the Twins’ lineup (Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano) combined to go 0-for-16 with five strikeouts and a walk.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen820.png

Next Three Games

Tue at CHW, 7:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Michael Kopech

Wed at CHW, 1:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Carlos Rodon

Thu vs. OAK, 7:10 pm CT: TBD

 

Last Three Games

MIN 5, DET 4: Late Rosario Homer Lifts Twins to Elusive One-Run Victory

DET 7, MIN 5: Stewart Bombs Second Audition

MIN 5, DET 4: Take a Bow, Joe

 

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[108Stitches]

It doesn’t sound like he pitched quite as bad as the numbers look.

[curt1965]

I watched tonite’s game with the sound off, so don’t know if the announcers made any comments, but I was deeply dismayed the way the players went about their business tonight. Everyone was swinging for an 8 run homerun, especially Rosario and Sano.

Disappointing! In addition, it looked like a little-league game at times the way the ball was thrown around.

[Dantes929]

 

It doesn’t sound like he pitched quite as bad as the numbers look.

Well, his strike outs/9 is somewhere around 24.5.     The hitters fouled off a lot of decent pitches and certainly he had some bad luck.   His stuff looked good but his command was poor.   I am guessing he was too amped to slow down the change up and the location of the change up was pretty high.    Definitely looking forward to a few more starts for him.

[DocBauer]

Unless you are a rookie pitcher facing the Twins your first time out, (sarcasm alert: but doesn't it sort of feel that way at times over the years?), you probably won't rock in your initial start. And despite being a fan and believer in Gonsalves, I have stated that I felt he would have a rough couple of starts in his ML career before settling down. Not only is it a big move, but jts been his MO, somewhat, to move up and then adapt and settle in after a few starts. I hoped for the best but expected nothing less tonight. Like the article says, at least this is over, now, let's get on to chapter 2.

 

Gonsalves could easily be part of our future. Time to march him out again in 5 days.

[beckmt]

My concern is that if he continues to look bad, what does that mean for his future,  I have seen some prospect sites rate him as an AAAA type player, so it will be interesting to see what he does the rest of this year.

[mikelink45]

After two more starts we will have a good idea what kind of pitcher Gonsalves is.  Of course I was hoping for more after shouting for him for two months.  And I still have expectations of much more from him and want more young players called up. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, his strike outs/9 is somewhere around 24.5.

20.25, but only because he got so few outs. His K% is only 23.1%, which is right around league average.

 

This is actually a nice illustration of how K/9 can get distorted for pitchers.

[MN_ExPat]

Welcome to the big leagues Kid.   Now learn from this, put this behind you and go forth and do God's work.

 

He'll be just fine, looking forward to many more starts from the newest Twins pitcher.

[ashbury]

Gonsalves hit Kevan Smith as he was squaring to bunt.

I can't find video of it this morning, to demonstrate, but the ball bounced before hitting the batter on the foot, and that foot was not fully in the batter's box - the arch of the foot was approximately on the line toward the plate. Isn't the batter required to stay in the box, for it to be a HBP? It wasn't the most consequential play of the game, but was an example of the luck Gonsalves seemed to run into that game, and we couldn't get a definite resolution of the rule during the Game Thread.

[Dantes929]

 

20.25, but only because he got so few outs. His K% is only 23.1%, which is right around league average.

This is actually a nice illustration of how K/9 can get distorted for pitchers.

Just trying to put lipstick on the pig.    While I was watching it looked like his fastball, slider and changeup were all high and only his curveball was kept low.     I would hope that as he gets his adrenaline under control the changeup and slider will be brought down a bit.

[Vanimal46]

Who was the last Twins pitcher that had a positive MLB debut in the rotation? Seems like every rookie debut is a bad outing.

 

Edit: Is it Andrew Albers? Do we have to go that far back in time?

Edited August 21, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Dantes929]

 

Who was the last Twins pitcher that had a positive MLB debut in the rotation? Seems like every rookie debut is a bad outing.

Edit: Is it Andrew Albers? Do we have to go that far back in time?

I think it was Bert Blyleven.   Just kidding.   How about Fernando Romero this year?  5.667 innings of shutout ball.  I'm sure there are others.

[AceWrigley]

 

Who was the last Twins pitcher that had a positive MLB debut in the rotation? Seems like every rookie debut is a bad outing.

Edit: Is it Andrew Albers? Do we have to go that far back in time?

Fernando Romero, May 2. Against Toronto, he pitched 5-2/3 innings, 4 hits, no runs allowed and got the W. His 2nd start, he pitched 6 innings, 9 strikeouts and no runs allowed to get the W again. Pretty good career start I'd say. Looking forward to having him back. Go Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

I was more dismayed by May's outing than Gonsalves'.......

[jimbo92107]

Stephen Gonsalves might turn out just fine, but his first two debut innings looked like he was pitching batting practice. Almost no downward plane at all to his pitches, which were sailing nice and flat through the zone. Very little movement, either. I was amazed that Chicago didn't knock him out in the first inning. Dick and Bert were yakking about his cool demeanor, but I was seeing a condemned man facing a firing squad of line drives.

 

Best thing about this is that Gonsalves wakes up this morning and says, "Hey, I'm still alive, even after that horror show." The only other bright note is that Kohl Stewart can say to himself, "Dang, even my first time wasn't that bad."

 

Now they can both relax and piece together some kind of major league career. 

Edited August 21, 2018 by jimbo92107

[Thrylos]

My concern with Gonsalves as a prospect has always been his fastball command.  In the minors, if you have decent secondary stuff (and Gonsalves has a plus change) you can do ok, albeit run high pitch counts.  As we saw yesterday MLB teams adjust quickly and instead of swinging at fastballs out the zone, are siting on those change ups.

 

At some point the Twins have to start thinking of prospects as assets (esp. for trade situations) and should not expose them like that, but trade them instead.  They have needs on the top of the rotation and at the end of the bullpen.  Gonsalves could have gone a long way towards solving one of those needs, maybe packaged with Gordon and/or other top prospects.

 

There is no need to expose your players if you know their weaknesses...

[Mike Sixel]

 

My concern with Gonsalves as a prospect has always been his fastball command.  In the minors, if you have decent secondary stuff (and Gonsalves has a plus change) you can do ok, albeit run high pitch counts.  As we saw yesterday MLB teams adjust quickly and instead of swinging at fastballs out the zone, are siting on those change ups.

 

At some point the Twins have to start thinking of prospects as assets (esp. for trade situations) and should not expose them like that, but trade them instead.  They have needs on the top of the rotation and at the end of the bullpen.  Gonsalves could have gone a long way towards solving one of those needs, maybe packaged with Gordon and/or other top prospects.

 

There is no need to expose your players if you know their weaknesses...

 

Wouldn't other teams know those also? I mean, I get your overall point.....sometimes you should deal prospects for proven MLB players, and on that we agree....but I doubt Gonsavles' weaknesses are a surprise to anyone.

[Thrylos]

 

Wouldn't other teams know those also? I mean, I get your overall point.....sometimes you should deal prospects for proven MLB players, and on that we agree....but I doubt Gonsavles' weaknesses are a surprise to anyone.

 

Have you seen where he has been ranked in certain prospect lists?  Not all teams scouting players 20 times a season.  As soon as there is MLB film, game is over.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

Have you seen where he has been ranked in certain prospect lists?  Not all teams scouting players 20 times a season

 

Mostly as a AAAA player from what I read, yes. If you know, and I know, then I'd guess teams know*

 

*know, think, believe, whatever......the point is that teams know waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more than we do. Are they always right? Of course not, or there wouldn't be so many bad trades and draft picks, but they know way more than we do.

[Doomtints]

Gonsalves said he was too nervous to pitch. 

 

The Twins really gotta think about easing new pitchers in by having them pitch their first inning out of the bullpen. Calling them up for these one-off starts whenever the schedule is wonky or a starter's arm falls off is too abrupt of a change and too much to ask for.

 

If you ever have money to bet on a game, just watch for the Twins doubleheaders or makeup games. Molitor will call up someone from AAA to pitch every time.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Doomtints

[Parker Hageman]

One thing that I saw was how he would hold his change-up grip versus his other pitch grips in his set position. It is probably more pronounced from the back angle than from the batter's box (the team likely has video from that angle to confirm it) but the wrist rests slightly different in his glove and may tip a hitter.

 

Given he uses his changeup the most outside of his fastball, it could be something to consider.

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1031717881535447040

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Last night is why we need to start Gonsalves every 5th day for the rest of the year. 

 

Now is the time to find out if Gonsalves can be in the rotation next year. Same for Romero. Frankly, not sure if Stewart or Littel deserve another shot considering how bad they've looked in their initial appearances

 

You do realize that Gonzalves looked worse than both Stewart and Littell, correct?

[Old Twins Cap]

I was at the game.  Second row by Twins dugout.

 

The kid barely reached 90-91 on his fastball.  His off-speed stuff were his better pitches, but when they were up, they got hit.

 

All in all, looks like Kevin Slowey disease:  lots of foul balls, some dunk hits and line drives all over the place.

 

Going to need an out-pitch, Kid.

[h2oface]

One game. Means nothing. I don't understand, if the season is now a throw away anyway, why you just don't let the man pitch some innings. The additional 4 runs the other relievers gave up were the losing runs. (Shutout pen and Twins win 5-4). Let the rookies pitch. Hell, they let Santana stink and keep pitching.......

 

It also may be good to bring them up earlier in the season, when they aren't at the end of the innings limit, or approaching it. Gonsalves, at this time, is an AAA to AAAA pitcher. The White Sox are, this year, an AAAA team. Nervous or not, I expected him to breathe and pitch better.  

Edited August 21, 2018 by h2oface