Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[Twinsoholic]

Long ago, when free agency started, Oakland As owner Charlie Finley said that teams should just sign free agents to 1 year contracts. Teams would not be stuck with long-term deals, and players would be competing each year against each other to sign with teams. The World Champ as were decimated by free agency in the 1970s. At this moment I happen to like the Twins strategy of the 1 year deal (with possible option year as in the case of Cruz). If the Twins are in the playoff picture, then they can make trades to improve their chances in July. What if the Twins had signed Darvish last year to a long-term deal? The Twins should be better than last year barring a rash of injuries. They have the farm system depth to make July trades.

[bird]

 

"Smart price," sounds like a very nice way of saying bargain shopping. NOBODY is interested in earning that over multiple seasons. If you're limiting yourself to "value," signings then in essence you're committing to only short term deals. It's hard for a team to fill three holes in an offseason, the odds become even less favorable as that number grows. I don't think you can truly separate contract length from talent level, or the effect that performance has. 

 

For the sake of argument lets say Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi all hit their ceilings. IMO they're unlikely to sign any sort of team friendly extension. The Twins haven't even been able to lock down some of the younger guys so how confident are you they'd be able to/or desire to do so with any of the above? How about paying market value to bring all of them, or any starter for that matter, back in FA? We've watched the FO successfully trade for a back end starter so there's that I guess. I'm on the Romero bandwagon but if he's the best hope they have leading in 20' I'd be disappointed barring an absolute breakout this season. All those options you presented are valid, I just don't know how much stock we should put into THIS organization exhausting all of them, and therein lies much of the angst with procrastinating adding long term talent.

 

1. "Smart price means avoiding contracts which decimate a palyer's trade value and make the player an illiquid asset. "Smart" contracts are not limited to bargain-hunting deals.

 

2. It's EASY to fill three holes in an offseason, not HARD. Especially if you have cash, have a positional surplus of attractive and valuable players in MLB and/or the minors (the Twins are getting there), and there's a supply (numbers are important) of what you need. For example, there was a supply of decent relievers this year, and there's never really a decent supply of #1-2 starters to bid on.

 

3. Short term contracts and needle-moving talent are NOT mutually exclusive, Cruz and Schoop are examples of that.

 

4. Bad assumptions: Twins won't offer a contract that's market friendly rather than "team friendly", and Pineda, Gibson, and Odorizzi won't sign here as future mainstays if the stars align performance-wise.

 

5. The Twins are ABLE to lock down the core players. They've chosen not to so far.

 

6. I get your pessimism. It's understandable. I see a number of reasons not to share it.

[yarnivek1972]

1. "Smart price means avoiding contracts which decimate a palyer's trade value and make the player an illiquid asset. "Smart" contracts are not limited to bargain-hunting deals.

 

2. It's EASY to fill three holes in an offseason, not HARD. Especially if you have cash, have a positional surplus of attractive and valuable players in MLB and/or the minors (the Twins are getting there), and there's a supply (numbers are important) of what you need. For example, there was a supply of decent relievers this year, and there's never really a decent supply of #1-2 starters to bid on.

 

3. Short term contracts and needle-moving talent are NOT mutually exclusive, Cruz and Schoop are examples of that.

 

4. Bad assumptions: Twins won't offer a contract that's market friendly rather than "team friendly", and Pineda, Gibson, and Odorizzi won't sign here as future mainstays if the stars align performance-wise.

 

5. The Twins are ABLE to lock down the core players. They've chosen not to so far.

 

6. I get your pessimism. It's understandable. I see a number of reasons not to share it.

 

I wouldn’t put all your eggs in that basket. Cruz is coming off one of the worst years in his career and he isn’t getting younger.

 

Schoop has had two seasons with bWAR over 1.4 and just one above 2.4. The chances of him being a “needle mover” are slim.

[Mike Sixel]

Cory

4:33 What are the Twins going to do the rest of the offseason?

Jeffrey Todd

4:35 Got me. I mean, I believe I stated in last week's chat my general feeling on the subject. That club had more holes than the Braves, more reason for urgency (best young players already in arb), and an even better division opening. But they have been ultra-conservative. Maybe that'll change. Maybe they are the dark horse on Machado (!). Perhaps that explains the otherwise very cautious movement. But I do think they can and should go for something bigger. What are they waiting for?

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-4402.html

[luckylager]

http://skfb.ly/6Gw8w

 

New "blinged" out alternative home unis, replacing the classic cream ones. Another lame decision, but "this is how we baseball". 

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

http://skfb.ly/6Gw8w

 

New "blinged" out alternative home unis, replacing the classic cream ones. Another lame decision, but "this is how we baseball". 

 

Arguably a worse decision than the choice to just sit back and not improve our bullpen. That is maybe about as bad of a jersey as I've seen and then to be replacing easily their best... pure tragedy

[GP830]

 

Arguably a worse decision than the choice to just sit back and not improve our bullpen. That is maybe about as bad of a jersey as I've seen and then to be replacing easily their best... pure tragedy

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I LOVE these uniforms. They're totally different than anything they've done, or anyone else has done before. Your best jersey should never be a throwback. Out with the old, in with the new. 

[luckylager]

The addition of "Kasota Gold" to the Twins color scheme a year or two ago was totally unnecessary. Wrecked the main home uniforms, especially the classic TC logo on the caps (one of the simplest and best logos in baseball). Gaudy, ugly. Looks like something a teenager would come up with in the uniform design program of a video game.

[bird]

 

I wouldn’t put all your eggs in that basket. Cruz is coming off one of the worst years in his career and he isn’t getting younger.

Schoop has had two seasons with bWAR over 1.4 and just one above 2.4. The chances of him being a “needle mover” are slim.

 

 

Schoop is a good bet a year removed from a 5WAR all-star year. So is Cruz, coming of a 37 HR 3WAR season. They move the needle over last year's alternatives, do they not?

 

Which point are you picking at? That they aren't possibly going to add extra wins? That they aren't talented? That the contracts aren't short?

[S.]

 

http://skfb.ly/6Gw8w

 

New "blinged" out alternative home unis, replacing the classic cream ones. Another lame decision, but "this is how we baseball". 

Christ, those are disgusting. 

[Mike Sixel]

Thread to post topics, not to discuss them......

[Mike Sixel]

jj
4:49 twins make another major league move?
Steve Adams
4:51 I don't see why they wouldn't at least add a reliever, but that'd still be underwhelming. If the Twins head into 2019 with their offseason consisting of something like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Nelson Cruz, Blake Parker and Ryan Madson, and they have $0 on the books in 2020, I feel like they'll be praised for being "savvy" and making solid one-year investments. In reality, I think that'd be a substantial failure for a club that had (or at least should have had) clear motivation and the resources to aim vastly higher.

 

The Fonz
5:01 Easy for me to spend the Twins money, but if I was running the show in Minnesota I would go all in this year. They have plenty of available money, the Indians are getting worse, and the rest of the division is weak.
Steve Adams
5:03 I'm with you. The Athletic reported last night that they made a multi-year offer to Grandal (though that could've been like 2/20, who knows) -- but their lack of aggression is weird considering the Tigers/Royals aren't trying, the Indians have gotten worse, and the White Sox will be significantly better by 2020.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-1-24-19-4418.html

[Mike Sixel]

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

 

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

[markos]

 

jj
4:49 twins make another major league move?
Steve Adams
4:51 I don't see why they wouldn't at least add a reliever, but that'd still be underwhelming. If the Twins head into 2019 with their offseason consisting of something like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Nelson Cruz, Blake Parker and Ryan Madson, and they have $0 on the books in 2020, I feel like they'll be praised for being "savvy" and making solid one-year investments. In reality, I think that'd be a substantial failure for a club that had (or at least should have had) clear motivation and the resources to aim vastly higher.

 

The Fonz
5:01 Easy for me to spend the Twins money, but if I was running the show in Minnesota I would go all in this year. They have plenty of available money, the Indians are getting worse, and the rest of the division is weak.
Steve Adams
5:03 I'm with you. The Athletic reported last night that they made a multi-year offer to Grandal (though that could've been like 2/20, who knows) -- but their lack of aggression is weird considering the Tigers/Royals aren't trying, the Indians have gotten worse, and the White Sox will be significantly better by 2020.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-1-24-19-4418.html

Does anyone have any info on the Grandal offer (terms, etc)? I though going into this offseason that he would have been a very good fit for this team.

[Twins33]

Does anyone have any info on the Grandal offer (terms, etc)? I though going into this offseason that he would have been a very good fit for this team.

[Vanimal46]

https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1088571273775669248?s=21

Sorry, but offering a contract $5 million below the QO rate AND below the Mets' reported offer of 4/$60 is not trying. Or I have a very different definition of trying than Doogie.

[ashbury]

 

 

They did, and it was for multiple years in the $13M/year range. Talks never gained traction

 

[Vanimal46]

But did you know they tried?!

[ashbury]

But did you know they tried?!

I believe I heard that somewhere. Checking now for a link.

[Mike Sixel]

An excerpt....

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/quick-hits-prospects-grandal-twins-davis-as.html

 

The Twins’ pursuit of Grandal is interesting in light of recent comments from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine about the team’s rather conservative approach to spending this offseason, though obviously Minnesota (like any club) would be interested in larger multi-year deals if it felt it was getting something of a below-market price.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They signed free agents this year, they signed free agents last year. They traded a prospect for Odorizzi and Ynoa for someone else . No doubt they will be working on extensions in the near future. I know Escobar turned one down.

what extension did he turn down from Falvey when he signed a 3 year 21 mil extension from AZ?

[Twins33]

what extension did he turn down from Falvey when he signed a 3 year 21 mil extension from AZ?

Probably is talking about the one that was reported before the trade.

 

Don't believe specifics were mentioned in the article but just that they talked to him about it.

[PseudoSABR]

 

An excerpt....

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/quick-hits-prospects-grandal-twins-davis-as.html

The Twins’ pursuit of Grandal is interesting in light of recent comments from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine about the team’s rather conservative approach to spending this offseason, though obviously Minnesota (like any club) would be interested in larger multi-year deals if it felt it was getting something of a below-market price.

Due diligence. 

[beckmt]

Price of FA pitching keeps going up, especially starters.  If Gibson, Pineda, and/or Ordorizzi have good years, you have some options.  My feelings

1.  If Gibson has a year like or better than last year you can QO him.  This would not tie up money for more than 1 year and give you something if he walked, at 31 would not give him more than a 2 year contract after this year.

2.  If Pineda has a good year, see if you can sign him to a 3 year contract.  I have issues with his injury history, but would like a 2 - 3 year contract with an option.

3.  Ordorizzi.  He is the toughest of the three.  Seemed to come on last year and if that was for real (big question mark here), I would offer him a 3 - 4 year contract.  If turned down I would QO him. I consider this unlikely, but certainly would keep the communication lines open. Might be OK with a 3 year contract now at around 10 - 11 million a year.  That would be way high if he has a bad year, but would be a bargain if he has a good year.  

[beckmt]

Do not like the Twins approach, but can understand it.  If Sano and Buxton flounder this year , you are looking at a 2 year reset until the next wave arrives.  And this would also be after the work stopage that I presume will happen after 2021.  That could be an issue if the players file a lawsuit to force the owners to pay at people under old agreement long term contracts.  Maybe the Twins FO has been told to avoid this at this time.  

Other factor here is with the end of the steroid era, players have tended to decline in their early to low middle thirthes,  so unless the talent level is very great, it is hard for the owners to pay very good player money to a player who could decline quckly in the next contract.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Probably is talking about the one that was reported before the trade.

 

Don't believe specifics were mentioned in the article but just that they talked to him about it.

agreed. Point being 3/21 seems pretty cheap, I thought he’d have gotten more on the open market.

 

The FO can talk all they want. Signing Cruz mattered (in a good way). Signing Perez mattered (in a bad way). Trying to sign or extend player X does not matter.

[twinsfansd]

As far as Grandal goes, that $13 million dollar offer may have come early in the off season before Nelson Cruz was signed, maybe ever before Cron. It would have made more sense then if they could have pushed Garver out to more 1B/DH play until Castro's contract ended. Grandal's bat would have been nice in the lineup, but would not be as good as Cruz's.

So they made the right move.

[Mike Sixel]

Dave
3:17 Is Martin Perez really in the Twins starting rotation? Or did they just tell him that so he would sign, and then they’ll put him in the bullpen. It seems like Gio and several other better SPs could have been had for similar money.

Steve Adams
3:18 Gio won't get similar money, but I don't think there's any real debate that, say, Drew Pomeranz is just plain better than Martin Perez. And he signed for less guaranteed money.

The Perez signing is obviously small scale, but it is one of the most baffling moves of the offseason. I don't see how he's an upgrade over any of the 6-7 in house options they already had for the fifth spot. If you're going to sign a starter, at least sign someone who is either a clear upgrade or, with the proper bounceback, could be deemed as such (e.g. Pomeranz)

 

Pohlads
3:28 How much longer can we get away with being cheap before our fans turn on us?
Steve Adams
3:29 (That's Jim Pohlad, current owner of the Twins)
3:32 I've never bought into the "Pohlad is cheap" narrative as much as others; they dropped a $130ish million dollar payroll to open last season, and the Twins spent $40MM+ from mid-January through Opening Day. Previously they spent a fair bit on Ervin, Hughes and Nolasco (woof), and they ponied up for Mauer. It's a known fact that their TV deal sucks, which hurts in today's game.

All of that said, the fact that you have Derek Falvey saying the Twins believe in their core in the same interview that Thad Levine says "We're eagerly awaiting the point when our window opens and we plan to be aggressive then" is flat-out doublespeak, and the Twins' reluctance to be more aggressive when the division is full of recent tankers and an Indians team that is stepping back seems ridiculous. If you believe in the core, then the time to act seems like right now -- before the White Sox suddenly have Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, etc. all at the MLB level.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-1-29-19-4441.html

[Mike Sixel]

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/add-indians-twins-to-list-of-teams-defending-payroll-thriftiness/

 

Not a positive look ....

[Vanimal46]

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/add-indians-twins-to-list-of-teams-defending-payroll-thriftiness/

 

Not a positive look ....

You can say that again. A really sad state of affairs in baseball when GMs have to justify being cheap. It's like they all received a memo over the offseason to use buzzwords like financial flexibility and unsustainable to justify their actions.