Article: Twins Select Ryan Jeffers in the Second Round of the 2018 Draft

[Thrylos]

The defensive "shortcomings" I read about are:

• He threw out only about 20% of the runners, which has been translated as he has a weak arm, which is a leap of faith.
• He did not play in a top conference, so there are concerns whether he will be able to "handle pro pitchers", which is yet another leap of faith.

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

TRyan Jeffers has 55 raw, chance to catch. Big-bodied guy with enough arm strength to catch but mobility issues and maybe receiving issues catching pro stuff.>>>>>>>>>>> The thing about catcher is simply this. Your defense, or lack thereof, impacts the game on so many pitches, it has to be at a minimum adequate, or your bat has to be exceptional, for you to be a plus player on your team. We are currently doing live time research on this scenario right now. A catcher with a very average bat, and serious receiving short comings. It doesn't take long to see the amount of offense one has to generate to overcome the lack defensive abilities. (I think there is a non zero chance anyone will agree with this)

Garver has looked rough around the edges at times, but the team is also 12-13 in games he's started and pitchers have a 3.51 ERA pitching to him. When someone else has been behind the plate, Twins pitchers have a 4.86 ERA and are 13-17. That has to count for something, right?

[rdehring]

Don't know if I like this pick, or not.  Will let you know in three or four years.  But I like Seth's comments, the FO knows a lot more about him than any of us...including all the draft experts.

 

Seeing he is a college kid with a big bat, will be interesting to see where he starts his professional career.  Will it be ETon or maybe even Cedar Rapids?  That will tell us a little more about him and their opinion of him.

 

I also expect the Twins are going to save some dollars with this pick and their #1 pick.  How much remains to be seen.  They don't have a third round pick, so whomever they choose to give the dollars to will come later.  If I recall, they took several guys later on last year that required more dollars.  Expect we will see a few of those drafted today and/or tomorrow.

 

 

[jud6312]

I figured it out guys ... positional flexibility. He pitched 3 times for the Willmington Sharks during the 2016 Coastal Plain League season. Unfortunately, the bat didn't seem to play as well there, or in the New England Collegiate League, as it did at UNCW.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=202003

[gunnarthor]

After day one last year, I was a whiny little bitch. So I'll hold off until we see what they do today. But they don't have a couple picks they could/should've had so I'm not sure what we're going to see. I think this draft is going to be more like the 2015 draft where we took Tyler Jay early, didn't have a second round pick, didn't sign our next pick and then used some money to get guys like Blankenhorn, Kendrick and Cabbage. I don't see an Enlow happening this year. 

 

Working on the edges isn't horrible but it's certainly not going to be as sexy as last year or the 2016 draft (which I still think will rival 2012). Getting a few extra 3rd/4th round types is probably what's going to happen.

[Platoon]

Garver has looked rough around the edges at times, but the team is also 12-13 in games he's started and pitchers have a 3.51 ERA pitching to him. When someone else has been behind the plate, Twins pitchers have a 4.86 ERA and are 13-17. That has to count for something, right?

I am sure your figures are correct. But I would also need to know who each guy was catching. And I say that with no idea if there is a pattern here, but it is also a statistical SSS. I think Garver is athletic enough, and the arm strength is sufficient. But he has absolutely horrid hands. When you watched him and the Cleveland catcher the difference in how they received the ball was startling. Soft hands are a gift, like quickness.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Not a very high ceiling, and not even a super safe pick either. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not a very high ceiling, and not even a super safe pick either.

based on the write up, I'd disagree on the high ceiling part. I think this is more of a high risk high reward type pick.

[DutchFarmer]

They were sniped by the marlins (Johnson) and another team (don’t know which) on their first and second targets for their round 2 pick, with overslot offers to both. Full disclosure, secondhand sourcing here (friend of a friend in the org.).

[jmlease1]

Well, I wanted them to add depth in the minors at C and 3B, and they've added another C so that's good. If he can stick at catcher, then this is probably a pretty good pick. 

 

It's seems pretty rare to find a guy who doesn't need work defensively at catcher? And when they do pop up, it's even more rare that they can hit their weight. So let's get him in the system and start the work.

 

Now, about 3B...

[ThejacKmp]

I always find the rankings sites overrated. It's not about where everyone sees a guy, it's about where you see them and where another team sees them. You obviously shouldn't reach to get a guy but if you want him and you know another team values him a similar amount, you gotta move.

 

I'm not sure if it's the best thing or the worst thing about the MLB draft but it's really hard to get worked up about it like you can for the NBA and NFL. Who knows how good these guys will be? Lewis could crap out in AA and we'll flip the narrative again. And then he could become a shutdown reliever and we'd flop once more.

[SirLoin]

Reminds me of Evan Gattis....

[Platoon]

Garver has looked rough around the edges at times, but the team is also 12-13 in games he's started and pitchers have a 3.51 ERA pitching to him. When someone else has been behind the plate, Twins pitchers have a 4.86 ERA and are 13-17. That has to count for something, right?

Tom, I forgot to add that I am not in anyway discounting the overall theory of certain catchers making pitchers, "pitch better". I have seen it done in person, but obviously not at the MLB level. Whether Garver himself has that ability? Now, therein lies the question.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

based on the write up, I'd disagree on the high ceiling part. I think this is more of a high risk high reward type pick.

 

Curious where you see the high ceiling in him.

[ALessKosherScott]

The inner-SABR nerd in me likes that they're going after hitters that control the strike zone. 

[gil4]

 

I understand an 80% chance to stay at catcher, or 100, or 50 or 20, or even zero. I have no idea what non-zero means. Seems that if people want to communicate, they won't do it in code. Non-zero could mean anything then? Like anywhere between zero and 100% chance? Now that is sticking your predictive neck out, big time.

I agree - I read "non-zero chance to stay at catcher" as "it's not zero, but it's close to it." 

[gil4]

 

Tom, I forgot to add that I am not in anyway discounting the overall theory of certain catchers making pitchers, "pitch better". I have seen it done in person, but obviously not at the MLB level. Whether Garver himself has that ability? Now, therein lies the question.

Maybe they think "I better hit the target, because if I make him move his glove a foot it's going to the backstop."

 

I've seen catchers like that while umpiring. It's always a painful day.

[Mike Sixel]

In their summary, FG said he had a chance to stay behind the plate. Better? Non zero chance is how scouts talk about a guy that has a chance, but isn't likely. They don't give an actual percentage because that's kind of silly.

[Vanimal46]

So this guy is turning 21 soon. How long do you let the experiment at C last? 26 year old 1B or corner OFs aren't that valuable.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So this guy is turning 21 soon. How long do you let the experiment at C last? 26 year old 1B or corner OFs aren't that valuable.

 

I think that depends on how he starts out....but likely 3 years at least. Unless his bat is so awesome it can't be waited on....

[Vanimal46]

I think that depends on how he starts out....but likely 3 years at least. Unless his bat is so awesome it can't be waited on....

I'd love to see a fast moving C in the system. Hasn't happened since Mauer... Garver took nearly 5 years and he still has a long ways to go defensively. Rortvedt is 2.5 years in and in low A...

Edited June 5, 2018 by Vanimal46

[diehardtwinsfan]

Curious where you see the high ceiling in him.

His bat. If he develops, he's a middle of the order bat... as a catcher that's pretty big.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The inner-SABR nerd in me likes that they're going after hitters that control the strike zone.

I guess you mean draw walks. Larnach had a 20% K rate. Actually his college K/BB profile looks a lot like Rooker's, so who knows how it will translate to the pros.

 

Jeffers is better in that regard, more BB's than K's, but in a lesser conference too?

[jkcarew]

I agree with others here that the Twins must feel there is a realistic-to-good chance Jeffers can be a legitimate (average or close to it) MLB catcher.  Decent defensive catchers with power are pretty valuable...even if the power doesn't come with great contact/obp.

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe he'll be Gary Sanchez!

[redstorm]

Might be a lazy comparison, but maybe he turns into a right handed Morneau, especially if he moves off catcher. At first I only thought it because he kind of resembles Morneau in his picture http://uncwsports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=5773, but then I remembered Morneau was drafted as a bat-first catcher and switched positions. They also have a similar size profile. Obviously this is a lofty goal given Morneau's status...but here's to hoping!

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I guess you mean draw walks. Larnach had a 20% K rate. Actually his college K/BB profile looks a lot like Rooker's, so who knows how it will translate to the pros.

Jeffers is better in that regard, more BB's than K's, but in a lesser conference too?

 

Rooker had one season in college where he had anything resembling plate discipline. More often than not, he was a free swinger, including a 37-5 K/BB ratio in the Cape Cod League. Larnach has somewhat consistently drawn walks and Jeffers has more walks than strikeouts the last two seasons and a run in a summer league where his K/BB was 29/26.