Article: Season Preview: Kyle Gibson

[Matthew Lenz]

One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his first and seond half, so I'd like to take a look and see which version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between.I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his second half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article.

 

Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson:

Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did a lot more striking out and handed out a lot fewer free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the first half to the second half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that contributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves?

 

I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing.

Download attachment: TrajMove1H.png

Download attachment: TrajMove2H.png

Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough, Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his second half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the first half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever had through his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters.

 

Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitcher's success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at-bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball, headlined by Clayton Kershaw, led the league in first pitch strikes.

 

Another takeaway from the data above were the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change-up dropped more while his slider became more of a mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”.

 

A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber.

Download attachment: Type1H.png

Download attachment: Type2H.png

To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half.

So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into spring stats too deeply, although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard.

 

Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked four batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between.

 

The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number five guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy, especially with the backing of a lineup that will be one of the best in the league.

 

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[killertwinfan]

I am expecting to see more of the second half Gibby this season.  

[MN_ExPat]

Hope so as well.   Gibson has great stuff, I think we all would love to see him get consistent results from year to year.

[jmlease1]

I've given up hope that Kyle "The Tease" Gibson will give us a consistent performance. I'd be thrilled if he would, but counting on him to be a consistent pitcher seems to be a fool's game at this point.

 

Maybe he's finally found an approach that will work for him. Maybe he can stick to it without tinkering. Maybe.

 

The best news on Gibson is he's gonna be the #5 guy in the rotation unless he proves he can do more, based on performance. I'm not getting suckered agin into thinking he's a solid #3 or so until he actually does it.

[ewen21]

There were indications that he figured something out, but let me see him pull a Carl Pavano in 2010 trick and by mid June a Gibby outing just might be appointment TV. As it is now I remain wary. He was inches away from Blackburn country

[rdehring]

Boy do the Twins need him to start the season like he finished last year.  It is so important to win this opening series to get the season off on the right foot.  And after that tough loss Thursday, you can't win this series without Gibby getting it done today.

 

I really want to be excited about him this year.  Please don't disappoint me, again!

[Dave The Dastardly]

Nice analysis. However like most things, the proof will be in the pudding. And like most comments so far, I'm clicking the heels of my red shoes together and repeating the refrain; I hope he can, I hope he can...

 

Wait a minute! Am I mixing up my metaphors?

 

See what Gibby does to Twins fans...

[Dantes929]

 

There were indications that he figured something out, but let me see him pull a Carl Pavano in 2010 trick and by mid June a Gibby outing just might be appointment TV. As it is now I remain wary. He was inches away from Blackburn country

Over reliance on a sinker was part of Blackburn's problem also.    I don't think it is a good sign when every pitch looks the same on TV.    That was less the case last year.     He will be the best #5 pitcher in baseball,  which I guess will probably make him better than a #5.

[Thegrin]

When Gibson was "good" he was inconsistent. I'll be happy if 18's Gibson is consistently "good".  

 

[USAFChief]

More 4 seamers, fewer 2 seamers.

 

That was last seasons key development. Better command, more swing and miss, less contact, fewer 2-0, 3-1 counts.

 

I don’t know if it will continue, but I’m hopeful.

[adorduan]

 

More 4 seamers, fewer 2 seamers.

That was last seasons key development. Better command, more swing and miss, less contact, fewer 2-0, 3-1 counts.

I don’t know if it will continue, but I’m hopeful.

This^^^^^. He just needs to trust that 4 seamer.

[PDX Twin]

It seems to me like we can't lose here. If Gibson is good, we win lots of games. If Gibson is bad, we get to see some of the youngsters a bit sooner. I'll look forward to either outcome. (Of course, he'll probably be just good enough to keep his spot but not good enough to win a lot of games...)

[Brandon]

It would be nice to see Gibson win 15 games just once while he is a Twin.

[Jordan1212]

Just yuck plain and simple

[mikelink45]

I am not a Gibson fan, at this point I want Romero and Gonsalves in the rotation. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It looks like Gibby worked in the 4 seamer pretty heavy last night.

 

Did anyone find a screen cap of his position relative to the rubber?

[AlwaysinModeration]

He was on the third-base side.

[ashbury]

He was on the third-base side.

Did that vary depending on the handedness of the batter? I watched but didn't pay attention, apparently. My wife has made similar observations about me and what she tells me, FWIW.