2018 Win Prediction

[Post-Concussive Blues]

With the (final?) addition of Lynn, PECOTA projects the Twins to win 83 games and capture the 2nd Wild Card.

 

How many games do you think we’ll win?

[Twodogs]

89 - 73

 

I'm predicting that Cleveland falters this year, they don't go on a 20 something game winning streak and they have a bad month somewhere either early or late and they go 87 - 75 and they win the 2nd wild card.  At least that is what I am hoping for.

[Vanimal46]

88 wins as the team stands right now. I have faith that they're finally going to trade for the ace-like pitcher in July to put them over the top as division champs.

[Riverbrian]

I believe the American League is weak... I believe the American League has more teams that you can cross off the trying to be competitive list.

 

I believe it quite possible that the Twins can cross the 90 win mark. 

 

I thought that before Lance Lynn. 

[twinssporto]

91 + wins.  Book it.  I was spot on last year too.  

 

[USAFChief]

92 wins. ALC champions.

 

I have been unimpressed with Falvine, but I have to admit they have really done an excellent job of adding talent and depth this offseason. No big “signature” move, but the aggregate is impressive.

[MN_ExPat]

If things bounce right for the Twins: 92 Wins

 

If not so much: 84/83 Wins

[notoriousgod71]

86

[jimmer]

 

With the (final?) addition of Lynn, PECOTA projects the Twins to win 83 games and capture the 2nd Wild Card.

How many games do you think we’ll win?

88 and in the mix for the 2nd wild card.

[Craig Arko]

86

Are you a bouncer, by any chance?

 

90.

[dbminn]

Between 85 and 90 - I'll go with 87. 

[jimmer]

 

89 - 73

 

I'm predicting that Cleveland falters this year, they don't go on a 20 something game winning streak and they have a bad month somewhere either early or late and they go 87 - 75 and they win the 2nd wild card.  At least that is what I am hoping for.

It's funny how many people mention the Indians win steak last year and say they weren't as good as they were. If they had gone 10-11 in that steak instead of 21-0, they still win the division by like 6 games.

 

They were clearly the cream of the ALC crop last year and in 2016 too.

[Dantes929]

Baseball is fascinating this way.   A .500 team has a couple guys play well or poorly with respect to their abilities, maybe a call here or there, maybe a reliever blowing a couple saves that sends a team into a tailspin or a couple walk off hits gets them in a groove.   Maybe its a schedule that is favorable or just better or worse health than average makes 6 games in the entire schedule go one way or the other and you go 87-75 rather than 75-87.     I will guess 88 but what I really want is meaningful games in September.  We had about 160 of them last year which was awesome.   We had maybe 9 at most in 2016 which blew since they were the first 9.

[IndianaTwin]

I was an optimist last year and said they could reach 80. They won five more than that. 

 

This year, I'm still an optimistic. They are clearly better on paper and the young guys should progress, but they also were extremely healthy last year. Factor those two together, and I'm going with 87.

 

(Of course, I undershot by five last year, which I'm hoping happens again.)

[rghrbek]

The pitching is better, no question about it, so a rather large upgrade there.  The real question, with such a young hitting team, is what will we see production wise?  First half of season or 2nd half?

 

First half, 79-82 wins.  2nd half 84-89 based of nothing or real substance.  I am hoping Polonco, Buxton and Rosario have turned the corner.

 

My gut says 82 wins.

 

My gut is is a large mass, and should not be trusted.

[diehardtwinsfan]

95 wins.

[jimbo92107]

Adding Lynn raises the floor to about 83 wins. After that, it depends on whether guys like Mejia improve, whether guys coming off injury like Trevor May and Santana bounce back, and whether prospects like Romero and Gonsalves come up and cause some trouble. 

 

Those mid-90 win guesses might be discounting the early absence of Santana and Sano. It could be bumpy sledding until they can contribute. They also are missing that these new pitchers might not be all that great, and that Mejia might regress, etc. Injuries, too. 

 

Still, 83 wins seems like the floor with this roster. The ceiling could be ten games higher, which puts the middle around 88 games. 

 

Strength of the bullpen could have a big impact, too. If Reed, Duke and Rodney pan out, the Twins could have one of the better pens in the league, which starts to make their pitching staff resemble KC's when they won it all several years ago. 

[Twodogs]

It's funny how many people mention the Indians win steak last year and say they weren't as good as they were. If they had gone 10-11 in that steak instead of 21-0, they still win the division by like 6 games.

 

They were clearly the cream of the ALC crop last year and in 2016 too.

Yeah that was last year, Cleveland was the cream of the crop. But what have they really done this year to get better? I mean a lot of other teams out here are better, so if the people around you gets better then you should also.

 

Also, yes if they went 10 - 11 during that streak they would still be 6 games up, unless some of those 11 losses came against a pennant contending team. Because if Cleveland got 11 games worse then someone in the league also got better by 11 games. What happens if Kluber goes down with an injury this year where he misses a couple of months?? The Twins don't have anyone like Kluber, but I think the Twins are in better shape than the indians with depth, I mean look Santana is going to start the season with Santana on the DL, but they will put in someone who should hold their own. What does Cleveland do if they lose Kluber for 2 months? So I think the Twins have the depth, they just don't have any real super stars

 

Last, this was also just me hoping that the Twins win the division, I mean Cleveland could win 115 games this year, but I am hoping that they dont.

[Puckett34]

89 wins.  Starting pitching is significantly better and worth at least a 4 win improvement.

 

 

I feel I'm being overtly optimistic and have a feeling of impending disappointment.

[jkcarew]

I see Vegas consensus had Twins at 82.5 (over/under) before the Lynn signing.  I haven't seen if they tweaked it.  I assume the over/under weighs the risk regarding Sano and the Santana injury?

 

When PECOTA projects 83, is it factoring in fewer starts for Santana and the risk of same for Sano?  I'm guessing not.  And if not, seems a little low post recent additions.  But probably only a little low.  It will be fun to see who among the young guys take that next step this year.

[D.C Twins]

Such a wide range..... Though the FO deserves the TD aggregate grade of 'A'.....much still comes down to the 'pre-existing conditions' before the off season:

 

Berrios:  More specifically his command of the strike zone....Good hitters were able to watch many of his wipe out pitches spill out of the zone last year and ultimately either run up the pitch count or punish mistakes. 2018 command = potential ACE; No command + associated loss of confidence = as much a bust potential

 

Buxton: Consistency with the bat; If so = superstar, if not = serviceable defensive specialist

 

Kepler: evolution to dangerous 3 hitter (yep, that is still his ceiling) vs. stagnant platoon player.

 

Personally my confidence is Buxton>Kepler>Berrios.  I really am still concerned about Berrios.

 

After this verbal diarrhea:  85-77 again with another frustrating loss in the wild card game due to the lack of a true ACE. BUT....I do see 2019 as our true breakout year! 

[Twins33]

I'll say 91. Usually the Twins do well when I predict a bad outcome and suck when I predict a good outcome. Hopefully this breaks that pattern.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think we will win 89 games and get a wild card spot for the 2nd year in a row.

[ashbury]

I keep going back and forth on this. I'll go with 90 wins, but with low confidence in this team's floor quite yet. The organization is still in flux, and the acquisitions we're so happy about come mostly with risks and question marks attached. The upside is to my mind 100 wins and World Series aspirations, a breath-taking proposition we haven't had in years, but we could also suffer through a sub-.500 season yet before reaching the promised land. Strap in, it could be a wild ride with a rough landing aboard this rocket ship with deep space potential.