Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[Otto von Ballpark]

Note that Odorizzi gave up a lot of unearned runs last year. His ERA was 4.14 but his RA9 was 5.02, which is not that far off from Gibson's. In a pitcher's park, that explains why his 2017 bWAR was in line with Gibson too.

Edited February 18, 2018 by spycake

[wabene]

This is the medicine needed after all the Sanchez stress. This guy is the best pitching pickup since Santana. May be close to Hughes but I think this guy will give us more. He is only 27. For what they gave up this could turn into a steal. What I like about this FO vs the old regime is they are more aggressive and make creative moves but they obviously highly value the farm. They state as much. They have improved organizational depth and the team. I'd say that's pretty good so far.

[mikelink45]

I am pleased with this trade.  It is a solid trade and we were able to move a prospect that is our most crowded position - SS - for a solid #4 rotation guy.  Of course he will be higher than 4 for us, but still it was a good move.  Last year he was 10 - 8 4.14 era and O WAR.  That is replacement level, but still better than Sanibal.  In the previous 5 years he acquires 8.1 WAR so he could step up again. 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Always been an Odorizzi fan. Seems rays are embracing the rebuild, how long does Archer last there?

[ashbury]

Sanchez's deal is an MLB deal, pending a physical. No word yet from the Twins on the deal. But reports are that it's a non-guaranteed MLB deal. But, since it'll mean a 40-man roster spot, a few things need to be done before the Twins announce it. 

I have the feeling that the reports coming out on that signing must be in conflict in some way. Unlike some other sports, a major league contract is by its nature guaranteed. And an MLB deal must result in a 40-man spot. The solution to this conundrum may indeed be that Sanchez gets added and someone gets removed. But Odorizzi's signing was immediately connected to Pineda going to the 60-day DL. Why wouldn't Odorizzi need a day or two, as well? (Perhaps now that pitchers and catchers have reported, he's already passed his physical.) Maybe Pineda is incorrectly linked and it's Sanchez who was added. In any case, I think some small detail has been miscommunicated by the beat journalists. Which... isn't the end of the world, I just want to understand.

[nicksaviking]

Man, go get Archer too before the Rays sober up.

[Guest]

Is it “germane” to the discussion to wonder if Lewis will now start the season in Ft. Myers?

[Mr. Brooks]

This is weird. On paper I'm having a hard time thinking of a better Twins trade based on current value. This looks like a big improvement when compared to last years SPs. He's a fly ball pitcher, and the Twins have a very good defense in the OF. I simply can't believe that the Rays couldn't have gotten more for him from MLB teams, probably even good pitching prospects. Did the Twins blackmail Tampa Bay's management?

How many teams do you think would outbid someone for Kyle Gibson?

Both about the same team control and salary. Practically the same career FIP and xFIP. Odorizzi has about a 3% better career FIP, Gibson a 3% better career xFIP.

 

They get there in different ways, but they are basically the same player.

 

I don't really have a problem with the trade, we didn't give up much, and we need arms, but it's not at all hard to see why teams weren't jumping over themselves to top our bid. We basically traded for another Kyle Gibson.

[Mr. Brooks]

Man, go get Archer too before the Rays sober up.

How much would you be willing to trade for Gibson? Odorizzi is basically Gibson, though they get there in different ways.

The Rays don't need to sober up, this seems like a pretty fair trade.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I think maybe you should ask yourself, "why was he available straight up for such a low level prospect?"

If last year was a trend in the wrong direction, he might barely be a major league starter. (He was 0.0 bWAR last year.)

If it was an explainable blip, then yes, it could be a great price.

The point of the trade that others are excited about (the relatively low return), is actually a point that worries me. If even 1 or 2 teams around the league weren't concerned about his 2017, then surely someone easily beats our offer, right?

But, given the low cost, I'm cautiously optimistic that they've identified an injury or other mechanical issue that caused 2017.

 

They call it a salary dump by Tampa Bay.Top 3 salary on their team also designating Dickerson proves this.

[wabene]

Always been an Odorizzi fan. Seems rays are embracing the rebuild, how long does Archer last there?

I dont see a team that concerned about money giving up one of the best pitching deals out there. They still have to field an MLB team.

[Mr. Brooks]

They call it a salary dump by Tampa Bay.Top 3 salary on their team also designating Dickerson proves this.

But if he's a really valuable player, other teams would try to beat our offer, wouldn't they?

[wabene]

How many teams do you think would outbid someone for Kyle Gibson?

Both about the same team control and salary. Practically the same career FIP and xFIP. Odorizzi has about a 3% better career FIP, Gibson a 3% better career xFIP.

They get there in different ways, but they are basically the same player.

I don't really have a problem with the trade, we didn't give up much, and we need arms, but it's not at all hard to see why teams weren't jumping over themselves to top our bid. We basically traded for another Kyle Gibson.

 

Then why did Gibby get 2 million less in arbitration?

[Tk33]

Love the trade on face value, but I even more intrigued by what it means about the trade market.

 

Twins gave up very little in return for a solid bet on a middle of the rotation guy with a reasonable 2018 deal (if you have money to spend) and one year of arbitration left.  If you look at it in a vacuum, this seems to be much lower than what used to be the expected return value for a starter with 2 years of control.  Just look to both Garcia trades last year and I would argue the Twins paid just as much for him (as a rental on a pending free agent) and the Yankees gave up more for him 1 week later.

 

Both the free agent and trade market have cooled significantly which makes me wonder, is it that we are finally seeing the full sea change of metrics driven value being the leading school of thought in front offices or is the disparity between teams causing the have-nots to be sheepish in spending money or trading value and the haves to be in no rush since they are sitting in a position of great leverage?

 

Either way, the MLB already seems much different this year than years past...

[bcs4]

 

How many teams do you think would outbid someone for Kyle Gibson?
Both about the same team control and salary. Practically the same career FIP and xFIP. Odorizzi has about a 3% better career FIP, Gibson a 3% better career xFIP.

They get there in different ways, but they are basically the same player.

I don't really have a problem with the trade, we didn't give up much, and we need arms, but it's not at all hard to see why teams weren't jumping over themselves to top our bid. We basically traded for another Kyle Gibson.

 

Those numbers show that they're similar, but I don't think Gibson is trending as well because he's had big problems over the last 2 years. I think I could selectively pick stats on most 3,4 or 5 starters and show that one is better than the other. For instance compare ERA, WHIP and K9. The biggest problem with Gibson is mental. I don't know if Odorizzi has mental problems, but if he does, I doubt they're as big as Gibson's. If Gibson could fix that I think he'd be a pretty good pitcher, but he hasn't shown any sign of that. Right now, I'd much rather have Odorizzi.

[KGB]

How much would you be willing to trade for Gibson? Odorizzi is basically Gibson, though they get there in different ways.

The Rays don't need to sober up, this seems like a pretty fair trade.

 

Agree,he likely bottom of rotation pitcher. Now hopefully a free agent pitcher falls to them like Addison Reed did. They don't seem as desperate as they looked before and rotation are filling up. Prices will be going down

[ashbury]

How much would you be willing to trade for Gibson? Odorizzi is basically Gibson, though they get there in different ways.

I think we got another Vern Bickford. Remember "Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain"? Bickford was the overlooked guy in that rotation, coming off a bad year still in his 20s.

[bcs4]

 

But if he's a really valuable player, other teams would try to beat our offer, wouldn't they?

 

Shouldn't the Cubs have the same concern with Darvish?

[Twinfan & Dad]

But if he's a really valuable player, other teams would try to beat our offer, wouldn't they?

If you read what their front office is saying they absolutely believe that Palacios is going to be a stud. Odorizza was their 2 or 3 pitcher and yes they had doubts about him going forward due to high home run totals. Most importantly they have numerous young arms to throw out there. As far as someone beating the Twins offer you'll have to tell me what Tampa Bay was looking for as their best offer for him.

[Riverbrian]

Is it possible to absolutely love a trade while at the same time being underwhelmed by the level of improvement it brings your team? 

 

If so... that might be where I am. 

 

 

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Spent some time reviewing speculation on Odorizzi's trade value over the last few months and feel this deal is far less than the pundits expected and we should be thrilled with the cost. I see several comparisons to Gibson here. I like Gibson and hope he turned the corner last year. However, I have grown tired of seeing Twins pitchers with Opponents Batting Average hovering at or near 300. Gibson: 2016 .298 2017 .292, 2017 before and after all star break .317 /.262. Odorizzi 2016 .241 2017 .220, 2017 before and after all star break .249/.176. I understand the concerns around other advanced metrics, and his walks are up, but I like this move a lot. Gibson 60 walks last year, Odorizzi 61. 

[bcs4]

 

If you read what their front office is saying they absolutely believe that Palacios is going to be a stud. Odorizza was their 2 or 3 pitcher and yes they had doubts about him going forward due to high home run totals. Most importantly they have numerous young arms to throw out there. As far as someone beating the Twins offer you'll have to tell me what Tampa Bay was looking for as their best offer for him.

 

If he stays healthy I think he could be, especially when you consider his age. I think he'll end up 3B.

[Mr. Brooks]

Then why did Gibby get 2 million less in arbitration?

Probably because Odorizzi had a really lucky 2017, which resulted in a lower ERA.

If his ERA had matched his FIP or xFIP, he likely would have gotten closer to what Gibson is going to get.

[Dan In Real Life]

I just hope they're not done. Still not excited by this move, but I'm glad they got someone who has shown an ability to get big league hitters out within the past 5 years. This is the rotation I hope to see (once Santana is back):

 

1 <Legit MLB #1/#2 TBD>

2 Berrios

3 Santana

4 Odorizzi

5 Gibson

 

There remains a pretty glaring blank spot at the top.

[Mr. Brooks]

Those numbers show that they're similar, but I don't think Gibson is trending as well because he's had big problems over the last 2 years. I think I could selectively pick stats on most 3,4 or 5 starters and show that one is better than the other. For instance compare ERA, WHIP and K9. The biggest problem with Gibson is mental. I don't know if Odorizzi has mental problems, but if he does, I doubt they're as big as Gibson's. If Gibson could fix that I think he'd be a pretty good pitcher, but he hasn't shown any sign of that. Right now, I'd much rather have Odorizzi.

Odorizzi actually has a higher FIP and xFIP the last two years than Gibson. So Odorizzi also has big problems the last 2 years.

 

I didn't selectively choose anything. I gave career metrics that show the results of things the pitcher controls. A pitcher can only control so much of what goes into ERA and WHIP.

[Mr. Brooks]

Shouldn't the Cubs have the same concern with Darvish?

The Cubs gave Darvish his 6th year and opt out, in a year in which the other 3 big spenders were sitting it out to reset their luxury tax.

How is that comparable to trading an organizational fringe top 20 prospect?

If other teams think Odorizzi is really valuable, there aren't really any constraints on beating that offer.

[Rosterman]

So they get two decent salary years or Odorizzi for a position of strength in the minors. Good deal. But still, can afford to purchase at least one more arm...unless Hughes IS showing signs of life. See Trevor May going to the 60-day now, too.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you read what their front office is saying they absolutely believe that Palacios is going to be a stud. Odorizza was their 2 or 3 pitcher and yes they had doubts about him going forward due to high home run totals. Most importantly they have numerous young arms to throw out there. As far as someone beating the Twins offer you'll have to tell me what Tampa Bay was looking for as their best offer for him.

Well then we in this case we didn't fleece them did we?

 

People can't have their cake and eat it too, by saying we have up almost nothing for him, while also saying that Palacios is this stud prospect that no team could have topped. It's one or the other.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Well then we in this case we didn't fleece them did we?

People can't have their cake and eat it too, by saying we have up almost nothing for him, while also saying that Palacios is this stud prospect that no team could have topped. It's one or the other.

 

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder!

[bcs4]

 

Probably because Odorizzi had a really lucky 2017, which resulted in a lower ERA.
If his ERA had matched his FIP or xFIP, he likely would have gotten closer to what Gibson is going to get.

 

That doesn't explain the BA or WHIP. My big concern with Odorizzi is innings. I know he was on the DL with a back strain, but I don't think it was very long. I wonder why he didn't have more innings?